Fordham Rams

Date/Time: Wednesday January 22nd @ 7:00 PM at Rose Hill Gymnasium in The Bronx, NY.
Record Last Year: 12-20, 3-15 (14th in Atlantic 10)

Preseason Ranks: 193rd (KenPom), 199th (Bart Torvik), 211th (Sports Illustrated), 205th (CBS). Seems like the consensus was that Fordham was a fringe top 200 team coming into the year. Not sure what they were seeing. Fordham hasn't been top 200 in KenPom since 2016. Their best rating was 127th in 2006, where they ranked four spots above Dayton. Those were wild times.

Projected Record: 9-21, 3-15 (Take a wild guess at what place that is!)
Postseason Last Year: Was considering omitting this line altogether. A better question was when did Fordham last qualify for a postseason tournament? (Look below for the answer.)

Coaching Record: Jeff Neubauer, 51-72 in 4 seasons at Fordham, with one CIT appearance in his first year where the Rams went 17-14, 8-10 in the conference (good for 8th place). Unfortunately, the wins in conference went down to 7 the second year (10th place), and it has been a downward spiral ever since. The Rams have notched 7 total wins the past two seasons combined (last place each year). Neubauer previously went 188-134 in 10 seasons at Eastern Kentucky, including 2 NCAA appearances, a CBI, and 2 CIT appearances.

All Time Record: 27-6, with the most recent meeting at Fordham snapping our nine game win streak against them. We split the season series last year, winning at home but falling at their place. At Rose Hill, we fell 67-56 which was our worst performance against them in 11 years. The team was led by the Justins, with Mazzulla leading the way with 12 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 assists, and Williams coming off the bench with 11 points and 6 rebounds. Maceo was a very cold 2-16 shooting.

Offensive Efficiency: 339th (KenPom), 342nd (Bart Torvik) (really should be called offensive deficiency)
Defensive Efficiency: 120th (KenPom), 106th (Bart Torvik)
Tempo: 342nd (KenPom), 344th (Bart Torvik)

Key Returning Players:
Antwon Portley (RS SR; Lancaster, TX) 11.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.9 apg; 37% FG, 35% 3-pt, 62% FT
      Last Year @ Rose Hill: DNP

Jalen Cobb (SO; Decatur, GA) 10.1 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.4 spg; 38% FG, 33% 3-pt, 73% FT
      Last Year @ Rose Hill: 15 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists; 4-9 FG, 4-9 3-pt, 3-4 FT in 34 minutes.

Key Losses:
Nick Honor (Transferred to Clemson; Orlando, FL) 15.3 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 3 apg; 37% FG, 33% 3-pt, 82% FT

Comments:
I feel bad for Fordham. I feel bad for their fans. I honestly salute and respect anybody who is still supporting this program. In a lot of ways, I also feel bad for Jeff Neubauer, who is not a bad coach despite what his track record has been at Fordham (fun fact: Neubauer actually played for La Salle from 1989-1993 when the Explorers were still in the MAAC; the 89-90 team went 30-2 and finished the year ranked #12). It's just a bad situation to walk into for any coach, and I hope that he is able to find another job at a lower level when he gets inevitably fired this coming offseason. I try to avoid getting into the "kicking teams out of the league" conversation, especially since GW hasn't been great themselves the past few years, but it could be beneficial for both the A10 and Fordham for the Rams to move back to the MAAC or Patriot League. Fordham's last NCAA and NIT appearances came in back-to-back years in 1990 and 1991 under Nick Macarchuk, who is now 78 (he's still alive - maybe bring him back as coach!) and last coached at Stony Brook in 2005. Macarchuk coached at Fordham for 8 years (3 were spent in the MAAC, the other 5 in the Patriot League) and he went a combined 133-112 there with an NCAA appearance (when they were in the Patriot League) and 3 NIT appearances. That's an amazing feat. He eventually stumbled at Stony Brook, going just 64-108 in six seasons, but early on even at Canisius he had great success. He finished his career 374-428.

Sorry I got a bit too carried away with diving into Fordham's history, more out of curiosity. Probably no one actually cares. I guess I wanted to avoid this preview from getting totally negative as there isn't much positive to talk about the present (and perhaps the future) of the program. Their offseason started with Nick Honor fleeing south to Clemson, following in the footsteps of Eric Paschall who left Fordham for Villanova (and is now a starter on the reigning Western Conference Champions - imagine reading headlines like this as a Fordham fan - it's just not fair!). If you thought that would be the end of the bad luck, you'd be wrong because again, we're talking about Fordham here. As conference season approached, three of their main guys in junior Chuba Ohams Jr. and seniors Antwon Portley and Erten Gazi all went down with injuries. But wait there's more! The team later learned that Ohams would miss the remainder of the season with a knee injury (and this injury happened during the warmups of a game, coincidentally against Neubauer's alma mater). This was a crushing blow to the team as he was their leading scorer at 11 ppg and rebounder at 8.2 rpg. If Portley (ankle) and Gazi (undisclosed) can return by Wednesday that will be a huge boost for a Rams team in desperate need for whatever they can get on offense. We are currently 13th in the league in scoring at 67.1 ppg. Fordham is a whole 7.5 ppg under that number. Portley, who started his career at St. Peter's, is one of their better shooters overall, including from deep where he cans them at a respectable 35% rate. I believe his name was on a preseason list for all-conference sharpshooters. More importantly, Portley is their best ball-handler in the halfcourt, leading the team with 3.3 apg. Gazi, a Cyprus native who came over from DePaul, is also a pretty good shooter (also makes threes at 35%) but doesn't quite have the same impact as Portley as he's more of an off-ball guy. Both guys are decent rebounders. Fun fact #2: We faced both guys at their previous schools in consecutive games, which happened to be the last two games in which we were ranked in the top 25 back in 2015. Against St. Peter's, we won 87-74 and Portley had 21 points. Against DePaul, we trailed pretty much the entire way by a large amount, ultimately falling 82-61 on the road. Gazi played 15 minutes and fouled out with just 2 points.

Whether or not Portley and Gazi dress up in the backcourt, we will definitely also see sophomores Jalen Cobb and Tyrone 'Ty' Perry, freshmen Kyle Rose and Chris Austin (a redshirt), and junior/former JUCO Joshua 'Josh' Colon at guard. Cobb is the leader here, although he is a very inefficient shooter, converting just a third of his attempts. If Portley is out, he will also be tasked as the primary facilitator on offense (he's second on the team with 2.5 apg). Cobb is the team's best free throw shooter at 75%. Perry is perhaps the team's best shooter overall, converting on 40% of his threes and leading the team in threes made with 23. He'll chip in with a few rebounds, but if we can run him off the line we should be good to go. Perry came off the bench and had 13 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals on some inefficient shooting in last year's road meeting. Rose, Austin, and Colon are all pretty poor shooters overall. Colon, who hails from Arnaldo's homeland of Puerto Rico, is probably the best of the three, shooting 31% from deep, and will serve as Cobb's backup at the point should Portley miss the game (Colon averages 2.1 apg). Austin is 11/36 from the field and Rose (a local product from Eleanor Roosevelt HS) is just 6/39 shooting on the year (the latter number looks a lot like Shandon's numbers from last season). I wouldn't foresee either freshman being that impactful.

With Ohams sidelined, the frontcourt will be led by 4-star Californian big man Onyinyechi 'Onyi' Eysi, Montenegro native Ivan Raut, and freshman Joel Soriano from Yonkers. Eysi is a decent player in the post, able to convert decently near the rim and a fairly good rebounder (the best on the team with Ohams out). He is not an intimidating presence at the rim by any means (averages just 1.2 blocks per game) but gives Fordham somewhat of a presence down low. Raut is more of a stretch 3/4 than a guy who likes to bang down low. He hasn't shot very well on the year, but is a guy who can get hot if you give him a lot of space behind the arc. Raut scored 14 points with 4 made threes last year in NY. Soriano hasn't been very effective offensively, but will serve as Eysi's backup. He's a decent rebounder in limited time.

Let's please not lose to Fordham again. I wish them the best and hope better things are on the horizon for them, but not against us. I'm not really looking at the NET rankings too much this year since we aren't anywhere close to contending for an at-large birth, but Fordham is a good 70 spots behind the next worse team in the A10. This is a team that has played tough so far in conference play despite being down some of their main guys though. They led Davidson at halftime, and took Duquesne to OT on the road so credit Neubauer for still getting his guys to play hard. I don't know how accurate their 120th ranked defense is as they've played a fairly soft schedule, but their zone can be effective. They generate 7.7 steals a game, which is pretty good (77th nationally). Hopefully we aren't as out of sync playing against it like we were against UMass in limited time. The threes will be there so hopefully Jamison and Maceo get good looks. Fordham is beyond abysmal offensively, and if they are still jacking up threes with limited ball movement like last year, this isn't a team we should lose to even in a rebuilding year. Free throw differential will be something to watch, as the Rams don't generate a lot of free throw opportunities offensively, preferring to shoot away from the hoop much like us. They are 113th in three point rate, and 77th in assist rate, preferring to operate in the halfcourt at a very slow pace. I'd expect us to come into this one as small favorites.

Predicted Score: GW 58, Fordham 57. 52% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN says we only have a 47.1% chance to win (essentially a pick 'em). I wouldn't be surprised by a low scoring affair.
 

Can an team with a losing (8-10) record face a "trap game"? If so, this one has all the hallmarks of a trap game for GW. With the Nelson Family Grudge Game vs St Joe´s and Davidson and Richmond games looming, a desperate Fordham team is just the kind of game that could bite GW on the ass. Or they could continue the improved play we have seen of late and seperate themselves from the conference dregs.

GWAlumAbroad,  I wouldn't be worried about this being a "trap" game against Fordham because GW has maintained a consistent and pretty high level of play in all 5 conference games up to this point. Before the George Mason game, I mentioned that GW was starting a stretch of winnable games, and was curious to see how GW would fare against teams who have a similar level of talent. So far, we've seen GW beat George Mason and then blow out UMass which shows me that the players have bought in, and the first 3 conference losses wasn't a case of GW "getting up" for a superior team(or the superior team playing down to the competition), but GW making strides and improving as a team. 

I saw some of Fordham's game against Davidson, the game was close until Davidson hit like 7 of 8 three pointers(it seemed!!) early in the 2nd half, and that was the end of Fordham. Unfortunately for Fordham, whenever I watch them, I'm always thinking how many of their star underclassmen are going to transfer to a BCS school on the East Coast!!

Gwmayhem wrote:

I perceive a trap game as one where you are looking ahead to your next opponent, which in this case would be St. Joe's, so I would not foresee a subpar performance due to this reason.  But, could you have a subpar performance due to a young, inexperienced team gaining some confidence and coming out overconfident, especially on the road, against a team which it knows it should beat?  Sure, this has the chance to happen.  I don'tr think it will, but very little shocks me.

On the area of improvement though, try to think back to some of this team's early season performances against Towson, American and Morgan State and compare that to what you've seen throughout conference play.  Like night and day.

Could we stumble against Fordham ... absolutely. It's college basketball and we are on the road. We've generally played well for 5 straight games so a clunker is not out of the question.

However, we seem to be improving almost daily. This would be a great opportunity to win 2 or 3 games over the next stretch. We are not good enough where we can or should overlook anyone. I think the guys will be focused and we'll see what happens.
 

I will be at game.  We don’t stand a chAnce

Line opened at 1.  I bet them at 2 last night ((I am in AC).   Right now it’s 3 at the Trop    Seems to be a strong betting trend towards Colonials.  Feeling good about this one.    Won lat night by .5, taking VCU at St Joes.  In other A10 action tonight, Dayton -17 vs Bonnies (opened at 15.5),  Mason  -6.5 vs UMass, Davidson -2 vs St Louis (I am thinking Billikens), Richmond  -9 vs Lasalle (opened at -10) and URI -3.5 over Duquesne (in a game that can have at large ramifications for Dukes and maybe even Rams).   In other games, thinking  Va Texh giving 6.5 to a reeling UNC and Creighton feting 1.5 at Deoaul.   May even take New Orleans giving 3.5 to San Antonio, on Zions return.  Any recommendations appreciated, noting I will be breaking camp and heading north to The Bronx about 215  (there is a pregame reception).

As DMV mentions above, their best attribute is generating turnovers where they are #23 in the country in Turnover%.  In case of a cold shooting day from us and a hot shooting day from Fordham, our lineup should have more of the surer handed Armel, Jamison, Maceo, Toro (if healthy) and less of JNJ, Paar and Harris (25-30 TORate).  They force a lot of 3pt shots with their zone so this could be a career day for Jamison and/or Maceo.

This is what I did MayheM  GW +2, Va Tech -6.5 over UNC,Duquesne +3.5 over Rhody (don’t tell my nephew), Creighton +1.5 over DePaul (sentimental pick), St Louis +2.2 over  Davidson, Xavier -4 over (Ge**getown, because I had them) and, getting silly, a 2 game parlay....Knicks/Lakers 222 under and New Orleans -3.5 over San Anton, noting that I intended the over on Knicks game but for some reason under came out.  Ito the rest of the 15 fans, I promise...no more gambling talk

Last edited by Long Suffering Fan (1/22/2020 3:09 pm)

Thomas, I believe GW failed to cover its home game against St. Bonaventure but has covered the past 4.

So far it's not looking good. Disjointed play. Hope we don't get behind big.