For some reason, Richmond is on an 8 game winning streak.  I am afraid they might be looking ahead to the Dayton game, but George Washington is too good.

This from the Davidson forum on how to stop Jordan King, with paraphrasing..


King scored all the overtime points. ... Someone should have covered King farther outside knowing that if you got beat, you had a pretty good shot blocker standing in the lane to stop the easy bucket.

One common denominator in all 4 of GW’s losses this year is uncommonly high numbers of threes made against us and/or career games for someone.

- UIC  hit 13 threes and got then-career highs from both CJ Jones and Isaiah Rivers.

- South Carolina made a school record 18 threes.

- Fordham, usually a bad shooting team, made a school record 19 threes and got a career high from Antrell Charlton.

- UMASS shot it poorly in the first half when it was tied,  but shot 6-10 from three in the second half and got a career night from Rashool Diggins.

Obviously that is a sign of our defenses lapses, but also shows opponents have to really execute to beat us. I fully expect Neal Quinn to hit a couple of threes (I know he’s never hit 2 in a game, but he hit one against us last year and he may be out there to pull Akingbola away from the rim). I know Richmond likes to keep teams on the perimeter so expect a lot of threes from GW - whether we are on will dictate whether it’s a close game or not.

Richmond Spiders

Date: Wednesday January 24th, 2024
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Robins Center
TV: NBC Sports Digital
Analytic Ranks: 83rd (KenPom), 88th (EvanMiya), 68th (Haslametrics)
NET Ranking: 72nd
2022-23 Record: 15-18, 7-11 (T-11th in A10)
2023-24 Projected Record: 21-10, 13-5 (2nd in A10)

Head-to-Head: 64-43. While GW has largely had the number of UMass in the past ten years, the reverse has been true for Richmond. Last season's double overtime comeback at home finally ended a six game losing streak in the series, and GW has won just three of the past 15 contests against the Spiders.




GW split the series last year, losing early in conference play at Robins Center before holding serve at home. In last year's 73-63 loss at Richmond, the Buff and Blue took a two point lead into halftime. During the early part of conference play, getting off to good starts was something GW was able to do fairly consistently. Ultimately, the lack of depth caused the team to run out of gas late and the three just did not fall all game (5/26 -19%). In the second half, the team only managed to score on consecutive possessions just once.

Notably, GW was very sound with the ball, only turning it over eight times all game and making the most of the few FT opportunities the Spiders gave them - 8/9. JB (25 points, 5 assists) and Ricky (12 points, 6 rebounds) were the only two players to finish in double figures, and GW got just 5 bench points (all coming from Qwanzi). A bit more depth and bench scoring would help a great deal on Wednesday as the team continues on this tough stretch in conference play.

Offensive Efficiency: 146th (KenPom), 153rd (EvanMiya), 111th (Haslametrics)
Defensive Efficiency: 39th (KenPom), 42nd (EvanMiya), 37th (Haslametrics)
Pace: 263rd (KenPom), 278th (EvanMiya), 260th (Haslametrics)
Home Rank: 75th (EvanMiya) (Included this since it's notable that Richmond performs better at home this season)
Roster Rank: 138th (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 157th
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 136th
Rim & 3 Rate: 75% (313th) - King's isolation shots/midrange attempts probably plays a role in this.

Strengths (2023-24 Season):
Personal Fouls Per Game - 13.7 PF/G (11th)
Opponent Steals Per Game - 4.7 SPG (12th)
Opponent Field Goal Percentage - 39.6% (22nd)
Opponent Free Throws Attempted Per Game - 14.9 FTA (23rd)
Opponent Points Per Game - 64.4 PPG (28th)
Opponent 3-PT Field Goal Percentage - 29.7% (31st)
Opponent Free Throws Made Per Game - 10.4 FTM (32nd)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game - 28 DRPG (T-34th)
Opponent Field Goals Made Per Game - 23.4 FGM (T-54th)
Opponent Blocks Per Game - 2.7 BPG (T-70th)
3-PT Field Goal Percentage - 36.1% (78th)
Opponent Assists Per Game - 11.6 APG (T-82nd)
Field Goal Percentage - 46.5% (91st)

Weaknesses (2023-24 Season):
Rebounds Per Game - 34.3 RPG (T-264th)
Opponent Rebounds Per Game - 37.2 RPG (291st)
Opponent 3-PT Field Goals Attempted Per Game - 24.3 3PA (T-298th)
Opponent Defensive Rebounds Per Game - 27.3 DRPG (324th)
Free Throws Made Per Game - 10.3 FTM (340th)
Opponent Personal Fouls Per Game - 14.6 PF/G (343rd)
Free Throws Attempted Per Game - 14.3 FTA (348th)
Offensive Rebounds Per Game - 6.3 ORPG (360th)

Key Returning Players:
Neal Quinn (Senior; Allendale, NJ) - 9.5 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 2.9 apg; 54% FG, 18% 3-PT, 64% FT per 22.5 mpg
      Last Season @ Richmond: 8 points, 1 rebound, 3 assists; 4-6 FG, 0-2 FT in 19 minutes.

Isaiah Bigelow (Graduate Student; Greensboro, NC) - 7.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg; 37% FG, 27% 3-PT, 85% FT per 21.8 mpg
      Last Season @ Richmond: 9 points, 8 rebounds; 1-3 FG, 1-2 3-PT, 6-6 FT in 23 minutes.

Jason Roche (Junior; Berkeley, CA) - 6.3 ppg, 1.6 rpg; 40% FG, 39% 3-PT, 91% FT per 17.9 mpg
      Last Season @ Richmond: 8 points, 3 rebounds; 3-5 FG, 2-4 3-PT in 18 minutes.

Key Losses:
Tyler Burton (Transferred to Villanova; Uxbridge, MA) - 19 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.5 spg; 45% FG, 29% 3-PT, 76% FT per 36.2 mpg
Matt Grace (Graduated; Hamilton, Canada) - 8.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.4 apg; 44% FG, 37% 3-PT, 78% FT per 27.8 mpg
Jason Nelson (Transferred to VCU; Richmond, VA) - 8 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 2 apg; 36% FG, 31% 3-PT, 73% FT per 27.3 mpg

Key Transfers:
Jordan King (Graduate Student transfer from East Tennessee State/Siena; Albany, NY) - 15.6 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.1 spg; 40% FG, 32% 3-PT, 85% FT per 35.9 mpg
DeLonnie Hunt (Senior transfer from Wagner; Upper Marlboro, MD) - 11.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.7 apg, 1.2 spg; 37% FG, 29% 3-PT, 73% FT per 31.6 mpg
Tyler Harris (Graduate Student transfer from Western Carolina; Charlotte, NC) - 5.1 ppg, 2.5 rpg; 34% FG, 29% 3-PT, 63% FT per 26.3 mpg

Preview:
The transfer portal has obviously changed the college basketball landscape dramatically over the past several years. Players getting to transfer without sitting out has led to challenges with roster retention, but on the flip side it's allowed coaches taking over a new program to be able to assemble a competitive roster in year 1 of their tenure. Look no further than the job Tony Skinn has done at George Mason. That may have not been nearly as simple 10 years ago with the mandatory sit-out year.

Being able to turn over a roster in quick time has turned an already "prove it" industry into one where coaches have to show progress right away in order to keep their job for even a few years. It was generally thought that coaches get at least a full recruiting cycle of 4 years to show progress before the sit out year was scrapped. Unfortunately, the transfer portal has greatly reduced the prevalence of four year players sticking it out at a single program, which has not only hurt internal development, graduation rates, and the ability to root for players but also what it means to show progress year over year. Even at GW, both MoJo and JC only got three years to show what they could do, and JC had to deal with COVID affecting the program as well. As a result, it shouldn't be too surprising to hear that 60% of programs in the A10 have had a coaching change within the past three seasons, either due to the coach getting canned or moving on to the next job as was the case for English and Rhoades last year. The bottom line is that coaches don't stay in one place for one reason or another.

On the other hand, you have a school like Richmond that has stuck with Chris Mooney through thick and thin - now entering his 19th year at the helm as the longest tenured coach in the A10. Mooney's tenure has certainly had many ups and downs - from the 'Fire Mooney' billboard season to the season where the Spiders upset Iowa in the first round of the NCAA tournament. It's natural to want change when things aren't going right, but there's something to be said with having a coach that will always raise the floor of a team even if the ceiling isn't there. While Richmond may have underperformed a bit in years that they were picked high, they have also over-performed in seasons when not much was expected of them (which so far seems to be the case this season). I'm sure St. Joe's would take what they had with Martelli at this point over the inconsistency with Lange.

Last season's Spider squad took some understandable bumps after losing a number of super seniors that led Richmond to the NCAA tournament the year before. Tyler Burton was still around to be a go-to player (43rd nationally in scoring, 125th in rebounding), but he wasn't 100% for parts of the year, and unlike previous seasons, complementary pieces did not step up which hurt Burton's efficiency. Mooney's bunch finished 150th on KenPom, which marked just the fourth time since 2010 that his team did not finish top 100 in the rankings. Richmond is a program that was historically built on player development (much like Davidson), so a rebuilding year would often be followed with a season with the team back on track to compete for an NCAA bid.

Unfortunately, (as mentioned above) the four year player doesn't really exist anymore, leading to some questions whether Mooney's ways would hold up following the graduations of guys like Gilyad (who has carved out a nice role with the Memphis Grizzlies) and Golden. An already down year for the Spiders was made tougher when Mooney had to go through a heart surgery procedure to remove an aneurysm in his aorta in the midst of conference play. Mooney missed the final month of the season, and it comes as little surprise that Richmond lost four of their final six games of the year after the announcement. It's good to see Mooney back out coaching and by all accounts 100% recovered from the procedure.

Expectations were fairly low after Richmond finished tied for 11th in the league last season and lost Burton to Villanova in the offseason. There were plenty of questions with regards to the roster in the offseason. Who will emerge as a go-to scorer? Will the transfers be able to pick up the nuances of the Princeton offense, one that often takes a couple years to fully master, quickly? With Andre Gustavson out of the fold as well, who becomes the dedicated lock-down defender? Fans weren't very hopeful as unheralded hero Matt Grace graduated and on top of that Jason Nelson did the unthinkable by going to the dark side (that's definitely significantly worse than JoeBam committing there).

Mooney certainly deserves a lot of credit for changing his ways, understanding that his system wasn't likely to be successful in the new landscape unless he changes up some things. The Princeton offense requires a lot of precision with regards to passing and cutting. With a highly talented guy like Burton who can score in isolation, Mooney started to get away from exclusively operating from a team perspective while still including components of his original system here and there. Richmond ranked 158th in assist percentage last year, which was their lowest finish in the category since 2014. Preparing for the Princeton scheme can be challenging as not a lot of teams run it, but in a league as talented as the A10 you need to have some talented guys who can just go and get a bucket in close games. In the past, teams going up against Richmond were often thinking about how to stop their big man, the focal point for their offense responsible for either going up with the ball and scoring or kicking it out to the perimeter and playing inside out. It becomes harder to stop when there's a guard who can score in isolation when things break down.

This year, former East Tennessee State/Siena transfer Jordan King has assumed that role as a grad student. King is quite a story - he started out as a walk-on for the Saints before earning a scholarship and earning third-team all-MAAC honors in year 2. A slight step up against SoCon competition did not hurt his production in Johnson City, as King notched two more third-team all-conference selections. He's a guy who has just continued to get better with every season of CBB. It's not every day you go from walk-on to third-team guy in the A10 right away (also probably a sign that Carm has continued to underachieve with the guards that have come through Siena recently). Sometimes fit goes a long way - he's a bit undersized, but a guy like Mooney knows how to coach people like that up as we've come to expect. King rebounds well for his height, can orchestrate an offense, and be a pest on the defensive end. His shooting numbers tanked a bit compared to his career average, but honestly that was more of an indictment of where the ETSU program is at right now and the lack of pieces around him. He's certainly shown that he can be more efficient this year, and we will have to close out well on all of his jumpers - that's something that GW doesn't always do with 100% effort.

King has scored in double figures in all but one game this season, which was their OOC finale against Lafayette (a team unexpectedly off to a 6-0 start in the Patriot League) in a 59-38 slugfest. Lafayette also happens to be the former school for Richmond's big man Neal Quinn, who also put up a modest 4 points in that contest. Quinn wasn't quite Golden last year, as he wasn't as effective of a shooter away from the basket and while he is definitely a capable passer, he didn't have the same vision that Golden did either. Still, expect him to be a load in the paint - I would probably put him again in the "craft" category that Stretch may have trouble against, but it should be an easier matchup compared to Cohen.

Key supporting players Isaiah Bigelow, Jason Roche, and Dji Bailey also return from last year's squad. Mooney clearly loves getting guys from the SoCon - King this season from ETSU, Bigelow (Wofford), and Roche (Citadel) - last year. That makes some sense as its generally one of the better offensive/shooting leagues in the country.

Roche shot 39% from distance last year but didn't really do much otherwise - he's the textbook example of a designated shooter. He is playing a slightly smaller role this year, but is still a threat from distance.

Bigelow also took over half his attempts from 3, but only shot 27%. To his credit, this year that's up to 39% and he is currently third on the team in scoring. Regardless, Bigelow has a nose for the ball and is actually Richmond's leading returning rebounder this year despite being just 6'7". He has been a bit inconsistent during conference play with his production, so that will be something to watch for on Wednesday.

Bailey has not been a particularly high-usage guy in his previous three seasons with Richmond but has generally cashed in on his opportunities when he's taken shots. He has seen his minutes double from year 2 to year 3 and again from year 3 to this year. Bailey is shooting 62% from the field and 38% from 3 while rebounding, assisting, and stealing the ball away at career best levels - I guess he has filled the Gustavson role on the team. The one hole in his game continues to be at the FT line, as he's actually faring better from the field than the charity stripe (just 54%). Bailey is on a hot streak of late, having notched double figures in seven of his past eight games.

Sophomores Aidan Noyes and Michael Walz will look for larger roles this season. When given the chance, Noyes has shot the ball decently and can rebound the ball, but he has yet to play in conference games and is likely out of the rotation barring a blowout. Walz definitely could be the next big that could infuriate us for years to come. He's shooting 36% from 3, and has produced promising passing splits when in the game. Walz notably put up 12 points on a perfect 4-4 shooting in a blowout win over UNLV earlier in the year. Still, he's a backup to Quinn and will likely only see about 10-15 minutes off the bench.

The rest of Richmond's contributors are newcomers:

Outside of King, Mooney also landed Wagner transfer DeLonnie Hunt and Western Carolina transfer Tyler Harris from the portal.

Hunt, a third-team all-NEC selection last year and career 10 ppg scorer, suffered a left wrist fracture in November that sidelined him for about seven weeks. He played just 4 games OOC before returning for a January til against Loyola. Hunt is a defense-first player; his shooting stats won't wow you but he contributes in other areas - crashing the glass at 6'0" and moving the ball - but his best skill is his on-ball defense.

I'm convinced Mooney is trying to create an all-SoCon team or something as Harris is the fourth player to come in from that conference. At WCU, he needed more volume to put up stats, but to his credit he has shot the ball better off the bench this year in his grad year by simply being more selective with his shots. At the very least, it certainly doesn't hurt to have a guy who largely started for the Catamounts come off the bench (and on a side note, for a school that has one of the lowest budgets in D1, Western Carolina is having a great year - 15-4 and a real threat to win the league this season).

Richmond's remaining players are all freshmen. Mikkel Tyne is the only guy truly in the rotation right now, but Collin Tanner, Trevor Smith, and Ryan Soulis could play larger roles down the line.

Tyne, a Canadian, is an undersized guard who plays with a chip on his shoulder. While his shooting splits aren't great, his 83% FT shooting suggests better days ahead. Tyne posted 16 points against Florida earlier in the year, and is certainly capable of putting up points although his minutes have been cut in recent games.

Tanner, Smith, and Soulis have not played in January and will likely be more long-term pieces for the program. Tanner played on a 35-7 Combine Academy squad in North Carolina and carries reputation as a shooter. Smith had several high-major offers before committing to Richmond. He comes from great pedigree, as his dad is the all-time leading scorer at ETSU (another SoCon connection!). Finally, Soulis is a guy that I think GW showed interest in during his recruitment but never formally offered. He's a re-class guy, so it's expected that he'll need some extra time to get his body ready for the college game. Soulis also had some high level offers and his dad played professionally in Greece for several years.

This game could very well come down to who can make more shots in isolation in a chess match between King and Bishop. Neither team fouls a lot, so FTs aren't likely to be a factor unless the refs call things closer than expected. Richmond has simply shot the ball better than their opponents for much of the season, so GW can't afford a repeat performance from Saturday when the ball refused to go in. Can GW cut down on the unnecessary turnovers? The stats suggest that turnovers committed by GW on Wednesday will largely be of the unforced kind. Richmond has always been sound with the ball (they are #2 nationally in turnover percentage) so GW would be at a significant disadvantage if they have fewer possessions than a team that shoots the ball well. Hopefully the better rebounding effort from the UMass game can carry over to this one. Richmond pretty much ignores the offensive glass (bottom 5 nationally) which should help a lot.

Projected Score: Richmond 78, GW 68. 18% chance to win (KenPom). ESPN gives us a 10.5% chance to move to 4-2 in conference.
 

Winston, thank you for your insights.  It's practically unbelievable to read the words "UR doesn't want its bigs taking three point shots."  From Grant Golden to TJ Cline to Tyler Burton to Justin Harper, it seems that UR always has had front court guys who can be lights out three point shooters.  That, and lightning quick guards who know how to generate turnovers.

King looks like a one man wrecking crew on offense.  Of course, that Princeton offense has almost always caused problems for GW defenders who are susceptible to ball fakes and backdoor cuts.  Defensively, you guys look very solid this season.
 

Per DK

GW +9
O/U 145.5

FD
GW +8.5
O/U 144.5

Line has moved from GW +8 1/2 -105 to GW + 8 1/2 -115, indicating that more money is being wagered on GW albeit by a somewhat insignificant amount.  I do think this is a good spot for GW.  Under Caputo, GW is 3-0 coming off of losses this season, and 11-7 overall.  Richmond is not a scoring juggernaut so this big a number would make me nervous to give.  In A10 play, Richmond is 5-0 but only in their first conference game of the season have they beaten anyone in-conference  by more than 7 points (knocking out the Bonnies by 11).  Plus, Richmond gets Dayton on their home court next so this could easily be a trap game for the Spiders.

Line down to +7.5

Great crosscourt turnover. !?