Another win tonight for Rhode Island, 4-4 in A10 play.  Rhode Island has played well in league action the game this weekend figures to be a tough one.

Richmond wins again on the road and remains undefeated in league play, putting together an NCAA Tourney resume of their own :

5 Quad 2 Wins, 16-5, the Quad 1 win over Dayton etc.

Rhode Island Rams

Date: Tuesday February 6th, 2024
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Charles E. Smith Center
TV: ESPN+
Analytic Ranks: 210th (KenPom), 216th (EvanMiya), 224th (Haslametrics)
NET Ranking: 196th
2022-23 Record: 9-22, 5-13 (14th in A10)
2023-24 Projected Record: 13-18, 7-11 (T-10th in A10)

Head-to-Head: 35-30, GW has won the past four meetings after previously dropping four in a row in the series themselves.

In last year's 89-80 win in Kingston, GW went into the half with an eight point lead. In the final ten minutes of the first half, Hunter made six of GW's seven field goals (surprisingly Amir accounted for the other). There's no doubt that Stretch has provided a big left defensively down low, but being able to throw the ball into the paint and have a big man post up here and there is something that would add much needed balance to the offense. Hunter's surge during the second half of conference play definitely helped GW get back on track after a slight struggle in the middle of the A10 season.

GW took an 11 point lead with six minutes to go in the game, but ended up scoring just three points the rest of the half which allowed Rhody to take a two point lead late in the game before a BA layup forced OT. The seniority of last year's roster often gave the Buff & Blue the upper hand in any game that went to extra time, and that was exactly the case in the URI game as GW doubled up the Rams 18-9 in OT. 4 GW players finished in double figures: JB (25 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists), BA (22 points, 5 assists), Hunter (17 points, 12 rebounds), and Max (15 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists). GW ended the game with 16 assists - a number that the team has not reached in conference play through eight games. They also turned the ball over just 11 times. It would be nice if the team could get back to passing the ball around in this one.

The Buff & Blue also happened to finish the game with 16 assists to 11 turnovers in the last meeting between the two teams in Foggy Bottom back in 2022. GW came out on top of that one 72-61 and went into halftime with a 14 point lead. Despite only taking eight free throws all game, the team made 11 threes to compensate. JoeBam led the team with 20 points, while Bray (13 points) and JB (12 points) also finished in double figures. The one thing I do remember from that game was one of the Mitchell twins picking up a technical in the second half for not tucking in their jersey at the FT line. That killed the momentum the Rams were having at that point, as they cut the deficit to just seven points. They never got closer than that the rest of the game after Mitchell was called for a T. It's also one of the stupider ways to pick up a technical, but really sums up just how stubborn the twins were.

Offensive Efficiency: 153rd (KenPom), 173rd (EvanMiya), 172nd (Haslametrics)
Defensive Efficiency: 280th (KenPom), 273rd (EvanMiya), 259th (Haslametrics)
Pace: 139th (KenPom), 127th (EvanMiya), 113th (Haslametrics)
Roster Rank: 186th (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 185th
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 308th
Rim & 3 Rate: 86% (58th)

Strengths (2023-24 Season):
Opponent Free Throw Percentage - 65.3% (5th) - seems like URI is due for some regression here.
Free Throws Attempted Per Game - 22.7 FTA (T-45th)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game - 27.4 DRPG (T-54th)
3-PT Field Goal Percentage - 36.6% (56th) (concerning...)
Rebounds Per Game - 38.4 RPG (68th)
Field Goal Percentage - 46.8% (75th)
Opponent Personal Fouls Per Game - 18.5 PF/G (T-76th)
Opponent Defensive Rebounds Per Game - 23.3 DRPG (88th)
Opponent Free Throws Made Per Game - 12 FTM (T-88th)

Weaknesses (2023-24 Season):
Opponent Field Goal Percentage - 44.5% (246th)
Opponent 3-PT Field Goals Attempted Per Game - 23.5 3PA (T-258th)
3-PT Field Goals Made Per Game - 6.7 3PM (T-262nd) (Don't worry, we'll improve those numbers!)
Opponent Steals Per Game - 7.1 SPG (T-268th) (Tied with GW in this category)
Opponent Assists Per Game - 13.9 APG (T-279th) (Move. The. Ball!)
Opponent Points Per Game - 75.8 PPG (289th)
Field Goals Attempted Per Game - 56.2 FGA (301st)
Opponent 3-PT Field Goals Made Per Game - 8.4 3PM (T-306th)
Opponent Field Goals Attempted Per Game - 62.1 FGA (309th)
Opponent Field Goals Made Per Game - 27.7 FGM (313th)
Opponent 3-PT Field Goal Percentage - 35.8% (314th)
3-PT Field Goals Attempted Per Game - 18.2 3PA (319th)
Opponent Blocks Per Game - 4.5 BPG (T-344th)
Steals Per Game - 4.6 SPG (T-349th)
Free Throw Percentage - 62.4% (356th)
Opponent Turnovers Per Game - 8.5 TO/G (361st)

Key Returning Players:
Josaphat Bilau (Junior; La Roche-Sur-Yon, France) - 6.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1 bpg; 44% FG, 50% 3-PT, 67% FT per 22.5 mpg (8 GP)** (out for season - knee injury)
      Last Season vs. GW: DNP (knee)

Key Losses:
Ishmael Leggett (Transferred to Pittsburgh; Washington, DC) - 16.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.4 spg; 39% FG, 32% 3-PT, 85% FT per 34.5 mpg
Brayon Freeman (Transferred to Coastal Carolina; Oxon Hill, MD) - 14.3 ppg, 3 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.2 spg; 37% FG, 34% 3-PT, 71% FT per 29 mpg
Jalen Carey (Graduated; Harlem, NY) - 9.9 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.1 spg; 40% FG, 20% 3-PT, 83% FT per 28.8 mpg
Malik Martin (Graduated; Staten Island, NY) - 8.4 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 1.2 apg, 1 spg; 42% FG, 33% 3-PT, 65% FT per 31.4 mpg
Sebastian Thomas (Transferred to Albany; Providence, RI) - 5.9 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 2.8 apg; 34% FG, 25% 3-PT, 65% FT per 22.8 mpg

Key Transfers:
Jaden House (Junior transfer from High Point; Richmond, VA) - 17.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 2.3 apg; 43% FG, 28% 3-PT, 65% FT per 28.8 mpg
Luis Kortright (Junior transfer from Quinnipiac; Manhattan, NY) - 10.3 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 3.9 apg, 1.3 spg; 39% FG, 30% 3-PT, 55% FT per 26.5 mpg
Zek Montgomery (Junior transfer from Bradley; Louisville, KY) - 8.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.1 apg; 43% FG, 42% 3-PT, 64% FT per 22.9 mpg
David Green (Junior transfer from Louisiana Tech/Hofstra; Apopka, FL) - 6.5 ppg, 2.8 rpg; 35% FG, 35% 3-PT, 80% FT per 16.5 mpg (6 GP)

Preview:
Much like their rivals a couple of hours to the north, the Rams of Rhode Island entered a new era last season after consecutive sub-.500 seasons under former head honcho David Cox. AD Thorr Bjorn showed his commitment to hoops by offering Archie Miller a 5 year, 9.5 million dollar contract with additional incentives for performing well in the A10 regular season and conference tournament.

While Rhody has only made two NCAA tournaments since 2000 (both appearances coming under Dan Hurley, the current head coach of the #1 UConn Huskies) there is a lot the job has to offer. The facilities are towards the top of the A10, the fan support is there, and there's well known alums that have gone on to star in the NBA (like Lamar Odom and Cuttino Mobley). There is definitely a history of winning, although the program success has been inconsistent. The immediate recruiting base may not be the best, but there is undoubtedly talent nearby in New England and in recent years Cox had been able to use his connections to recruit the DC area fairly proficiently.

Add in the fact that Miller has a history of winning in the league at Dayton (as mentioned last week, took the Flyers to four straight NCAA tournaments prior to leaving for Indiana) and there was definitely a lot to be excited about ahead of the 2022-23 season. Archie took the 2021-22 season off following three consecutive sub-.500 finishes in Big Ten play. I believe he did stuff for the Field of 68 as a media guy. While Archie obviously doesn't have the same track record as his brother Sean much like the Frank Martin hire it was definitely worth on paper bringing him in to get Rhody back on track.

So where did things go wrong last year with a promising roster on paper? I think to start things off, perhaps expectations were too high - URI was coming off a 15-16 year under Cox and five of their top eight scorers departed leaving little continuity. I will be the first to acknowledge that I was a bit down when CC didn't add too many pieces to last year's roster, but he is a firm believer that it doesn't help to add guys for the sake of adding guys - they have to fit the culture and make sense for the team. That was not followed by Rhody, although to be fair the Rams probably needed to address their roster more than us given how much they lost.

There were questions about Miller's coaching and ability to recruit by the end of the year, but the reality was that the pieces just didn't fit and the talent level from the Cox holdovers wasn't at the level it needs to be. Yes, Archie previously succeeded at arguably the top job in the A10 and those Flyer teams certainly had a great deal more of continuity, but the roster Miller assembled last year didn't work. He didn't have much time to bring in true freshmen in year 1 and it was just a bad year in the transfer portal:

Anthony Harris was a top 70 recruit out of HS who appeared in 35 games across three seasons at UNC, but never suited up for the Rams due to academic concerns. He is now enrolled in an NAIA institution (St. Thomas) down in Florida. I'm not sure I've ever seen that big of a drop off from a blue blood to an NAIA in such a short period of time.

Alex Tchikou was also a top 100 recruit out of HS who originally committed to Alabama. Unfortunately, an Achilles injury effectively ended his time in Tuscaloosa and he ended up only suiting up for three games there. While it's always exciting to see a high-level prospect come down to the A10, he was still expected to be a bit raw offensively. Tchikou shot just 48% from the field - that's quite bad for a big that doesn't take any threes. The France native is now enrolled at Detroit Mercy, one of just two teams in D1 that hasn't won a game this season.

We all know the story with Brayon Freeman after he left GW. In fact, Bray probably sums up URI's team as a whole as a guy who just didn't fit. He was suspended early in the year and ended up getting dismissed later in the season, as least partially due to his parents and Miller not seeing eye to eye. I didn't watch too much of Rhody last year, but whatever I did see it appeared that Freeman was completely disconnected from the offense, just launched shots whenever he wanted, and did not take criticism too well. His shooting percentages were down across the board from his time at GW. Bray transferred to Coastal Carolina last offseason. He sat early on due to the NCAA rules for transferring a second time and has appeared in four games off the bench for the Chanticleers (although hasn't played in nearly a month - not sure if it's injury or suspension - he's still listed on their roster though). Just a big drop off from the player he was at GW. I wouldn't be surprised if he's on the move again. As CC says, players who constantly change high schools are more likely to do the same in college. Bray played at several high schools (although his final transfer to National Christian Academy was due to Huntington Prep closing for the year due to COVID).

The rest of the holdovers just weren't A10 level outside of Ishmael Leggett. I was always a fan of Leggett's game, but one guy isn't enough to field a good team.

Jalen Carey was a solid rotation guy coming from Syracuse in 2020 but wasn't going to suddenly emerge as a bonafide star. He was a career 25% three point shooter and I believe he ended up going pro overseas after not getting enough interest from schools in the portal last offseason.

Malik Martin was another good complementary guy, but he wasn't the same player his brother was. Martin was also another guy who was a subpar three point shooter.

Sebastian Thomas to his credit has found a good landing spot at Albany (averaging 18 ppg) but he's doing so on high volume - nearly 15 shots a game. He's also again just a 27% shooter from 3 in his career.

Freshmen Abdou Samb and Louis Hutchinson more or less fall into the same boat although they have a bit more upside since they're still young. Samb (like Tchikou) shot below 50% from the field as a post player and is now teammates with Qwanzi at IUPUI. Hutchinson (who I think was Miller's first HS recruit) saw inconsistent playing time and is now playing at Charleston Southern - another school that often finds itself towards the bottom of its conference. The bottom line was that all of these players ended up at lower levels or weren't guys that could emerge as productive starters.

Last year's URI squad suffered from many of the same issues Archie's Indiana teams had. The central issue has been the inability to put the ball in the hoop. Per KenPom, eight of Miller's 11 squads have fared better on the defensive end than on the offensive side of the ball. His Indiana squads were consistently below average at shooting the three ball, and last year's URI team might have been the worst shooting team he's ever coached (although they were weirdly decent from the FT line). A probably (somewhat valid) complaint of Miller is that he hasn't really emphasized the 3 ever since he left Dayton. This year will likely mark the sixth straight season that an Archie squad is bottom 100 in 3-PT attempt rate. On the one hand, it's good that he is aware that the 3 hasn't been a strength of his teams recently, but that's also something he has to address as that becomes more of a focus across CBB.

To Miller's credit he certainly has addressed offensive shortcomings from last year's roster, as he landed three experienced guards from the transfer portal in Jaden House (High Point), Luis Kortright (Quinnipiac), and Zek Montgomery (Bradley).

House probably falls under the category of "scorer" rather than "shooter" (he averaged 17.3 ppg - 105th nationally) but when you lose nearly 98% of last year's scoring, you definitely need a bit of both. High Point was a middling team last year (their new coach has done a great job this year turning things around) but House was definitely a bright spot. He finished in double figures scoring in all but two games. Strangely one of those games against Winthrop he attempted just 2 shots but played 32 minutes. Regardless, House is definitely capable of putting up big games, as evidenced by his 29 and 27 points against UMass and Dayton respectively. He has notably improved as a three point shooter, converting on a career best 36% of shots from distance. It's amazing what having better talent around you does for your efficiency. House does have a subpar assist to turnover ratio though and is inconsistent from the line still. The most important thing will be to close out on his shots well.

Kortright arrives in Kingston after three up and down seasons in Connecticut. He averaged double figures scoring his freshman year (35% from 3) and his junior year, but he had perhaps the textbook definition of a sophomore slump, averaging just 3.5 ppg with major regressions shooting the ball across the board (although he was hampered by an ankle injury all season I believe). While Kortright is still streaky as a shooter from distance, he has improved his efficiency inside the arc (44% overall) and does a good job leading the offense - unlike House has an assist to turnover ratio over 2. He has alternated double and single digit scoring the past eight games in conference play. Unfortunately for us, he posted under 10 points in their last game but perhaps we can break that streak on Tuesday.

Montgomery probably came from the best program and was the best shooter of the three coming in. At Bradley, he shot 37% and 42% from distance in his two seasons, although he hasn't been able to find his footing in Kingston (just 27%). His 6'6" frame allows him to play a number of positions on the court and allow Miller to play the trio together. Montgomery will add some rebounding but like House and Kortright is pretty inconsistent from the FT line. He just hasn't been the same guy during conference play as he was OOC, when he began his Rhody career with eight straight games in double figures. When I say he's struggled, that's putting it nicely - he's under 20% from the field since A10 play began and has not scored over six points in any game. Still, knowing our luck lately and how GW has defended he probably goes off for a career game.

That guard trio will be supported by JUCO transfer Always Wright and returner Brandon Weston.

Wright has probably the best name of any player in the country. I'm sure at this point he's become used to people talking about it, but I still bad for him that his parents subjected him to that name. His brother's name is All, which actually might not be as bad as the name Always but is still bad. Wright has two sisters as well, but both of them have more traditionally kept names (Madeline and Makayla). Anyways, Wright, a Missouri native, stuffed the stat sheet on a 23-6 Northeastern Oklahoma A&M squad - 14.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 6.4 apg, 1.8 spg while shooting 43% from 3 - but the A10 is of course a significant step up in competition. He hasn't scored in double figures in any D1 game this year and didn't play in their last game against Duquesne (he's also just 26% from 3 on the year).

Weston came to URI from Seton Hall last season. His numbers this year compared to last are nearly identical, as he averages just under 5 ppg. Having said that, Weston has upped his efficiency (43% from the field) while already tying the number of threes he made all of last season with 9. On a team littered with poor free throw shooters, Weston is one of the better ones (86%) but he doesn't get to the line enough for that to really count. He had six points and six rebounds in last year's matchup.

The final pieces of the backcourt for Rhody are freshmen Cam Estevez and Connor Dubsky. Both players were recruited by GW out of HS.

While the rookie of the year is likely to going to either Jun or Garrett, Estevez has quietly had a very good freshman campaign for the Rams. He has already shown to be a dynamic three level scorer, shooting 41% from deep while taking over half his attempts from there. In eight road contests this year, he's been even better from 3 - 46% which should be of concern for GW on Tuesday. Following URI's fifth straight loss during OOC play against UNH, Estevez entered the starting lineup in place of Montgomery and helped the Rams recover from a poor start to the year. He's scored double figures in conference play just twice (against UMass and GMU) but made four threes in both of those. I do worry about him having that kind of a performance against GW.

Dubsky is a Virginia native who likely won't be a factor on Tuesday as he works to adjust defensively to the college game. His greatest attribute is his shooting ability but that likely won't be seen absent a blowout this year.

Estevez entering the starting lineup wasn't the only change that helped URI recover from a poor early season start. The Northeastern win also marked the first game that Louisiana Tech/Hofstra transfer David Green became eligible to play by the NCAA. Green has been a game-changer for the Rams and he is on a hot streak right now having scored 20+ in each of his last three games. This will be a tough matchup for GW, as the Florida native has shot an unreal 56% from 3 (19/34) since being cleared to play and averages over 5 rebounds a game. He's not as much of a factor defensively, but he has few holes in his game offensively. Given Green is just 59% from the line, it may be worth fouling him instead of giving him clean looks to shoot from the field.

Green will be joined up front by Austrian freshman David Fuchs. I visited the URI board once a couple months back and the only thing I got from my brief reading was that Ram fans hate Fuchs for some reason. I'm not sure why, because by all accounts he's having a pretty good year for a freshman - averaging 7 points and 7 rebounds a contest. Unlike Green, Fuchs won't launch from 3 too often (just 25% on his 12 attempts on the year) but he has shown to be effective finishing near the rim. I probably sound like a broken record by now, but Fuchs is another guy who shoots under 70% from the FT line. This URI game is a good time to play a bit more aggressive defensively.

With Josephat Bilau going down with a season-ending knee injury again in December, URI will back up Green and Fuchs with forward Tyson Brown and center Jeremy Foumena.

Brown played a key role in URI's signature OOC win against Yale, scoring 10 points on 5-5 shooting. He's come off the bench lately after starting earlier in the season. Brown operates exclusively out of the post. He has converted on 57% of his near-proximity attempts although he's just 14/30 from the FT line which highlights his shooting range on the court. Still, his strong 6'9" frame down low makes him a key piece for the Rams.

Foumena, a Canadian, is the tallest player on the roster at 6'11". He redshirted last season which has enabled him to be more effective on the court this year (6 pts/4 rbs a game). Foumena will attempt the occasional 3 (7/21) which may be a slight concern for Stretch but not a major one. What will be less surprising to hear is that he's just 34% from the FT line.

When URI needs a change of pace/more shooting up front Rory Stewart may be thrown out there for a few minutes here and there. Stewart provided a big lift in URI's game against SLU last year when he knocked down three 3s. He played with Zam in the FIBA championships last summer and had a similar role for Great Britain. When he's hot, he can provide a lift offensively but is also susceptible to lapses defensively. I'd be surprised if he plays a lot unless URI is in a massive hole.

Hopefully the week off allowed the guys to reset and refocus for the second half of conference play. There are obvious improvements that will need to be made defensively, but this game will be a good litmus test to see if the offense is back at the level it needs to be in order for the team to win games. While Miller has addressed offensive shortcomings from last year's roster, this Rams team has also not been able to play cohesive defense which has offset things a bit.

GW should not struggle to put up points in this one if they move the ball more than they have recently. I caught a bit of the GMU-UMass and Bona-Dayton game. What the Patriots and Bonnies did that GW didn't in those two games was attack the hoop. Rhody is terrible at defending pretty much any spot on the court so it's about GW playing in rhythm. Turnovers shouldn't be a concern, as only Creighton's opponents have averaged fewer turnovers per game than Rhody's this season. Regardless, JB and Max will have to play better.

Defensively, it's a bit concerning that Rhody shoots fairly efficiently from the field although as mentioned above Miller's squads have never been high volume shooting teams. I again want to highlight that URI is a very poor free throw shooting team - only five teams nationally are worse. While it feels like every opponent has been near automatic from the line at the Smith Center, this is certainly a game to maybe make use of more fouls and go deeper into the bench. This is especially true against guys like House, Estevez, Kortright, and Green.

Projected Score: GW 81, URI 77. 67% chance to win (KenPom). ESPN gives us a 74.3% chance to snap a four game losing streak and move to 4-5 in conference (surprisingly generous).
 

There are so many times where DMV writes a preview and I stop to think "well, there's a reason for that" only to then read what that reason was in the very next sentence.  (Today, it was about Bray's high school career, and sure enough, Piranha cites Huntington Prep's downfall as an inarguable reason as to why he had to transfer high schools after that year.)  Just shows how incredibly thorough he is.

Am glad his write-ups predate the advent of artificial intelligence.  Otherwise, I might start to wonder.

As for this game, in light of one blown opportunity at home at a "get right game" against La Salle, this matchup with URI really needs to be THE get right game as I'm not sure GW will be as big a favorite the rest of the regular season as it will be against URI.  Any type of win will be nice but a rather convincing one could go a long way towards restoring confidence.

And to be fair, with a full week to prepare against a team that really does not play an ounce of defense, this is the team's best shot at getting the offense back on track.
 

Garrett not in uniform

I like 4 assists on 6 baskets.

Why is it that whenever we get a nice lead, we revert to bad habits?

DC Native wrote:

The good guys look determined tonight.

Still not sure why there are never more than two players in white uniforms moving at any one time when GW has the ball.

Students at home playing video games. Let's change the moniker again and then we will see 1,000 students at every game.

Anyone that forces the ball inside to stretch should be charged for a foul as well as the automatic turnover.

Last edited by Alum1 (2/06/2024 8:19 pm)