So the good news is that Richmond doesn't score all that well for how well they've played. The bad news is that they've given up 20 points less per game than GW has, and Richmond is the third-best 3-point shooting team in the conference since A-10 play began. 

All that is to say that this is a matchup nightmare.

VCU was able to get to Richmond by absolutely punishing the Spiders on the glass (Richmond is perhaps the worst rebounding team in conference), forcing Richmond to shoot poorly from distance, and not losing composure when Richmond came out strong in the 2nd half. Steady defense and good free throw shooting allowed them to progressively expand their lead. A local rivalry and a game in Siegel Center never hurts, either.

Richmond plays slow, plays great defense, and doesn't turn the ball over much. If they're hot from three, this is a massacre. If they shoot below average and Max can get himself a double-double, then there's a world where we're in this game. I'm not counting on that.

Richmond Spiders (Game 2)

Date: Saturday February 17th, 2024
Time: 12:30 PM ET
Venue: Charles E. Smith Center
TV: USA Network
Analytic Ranks: 89th (KenPom), 93rd (EvanMiya), 80th (Haslametrics)
NET Ranking: 78th
2023-24 Projected Record: 21-10, 13-5 (T-2nd in A10)

Game 1 Result: RICH 82, GW 74 (Johnson 17 points, Bishop 15 points, Buchanan 13 points, Hutchinson 13 points, Edwards 11 points)
Richmond Preview: Link
Richmond Record Since Last Matchup: 3-2 (Wins vs. Dayton, @ Fordham, vs. La Salle; Losses @ VCU, vs. UMass)

Offensive Efficiency: 169th (KenPom), 165th (EvanMiya), 140th (Haslametrics)
Defensive Efficiency: 27th (KenPom), 35th (EvanMiya), 30th (Haslametrics)
Pace: 227th (KenPom), 240th (EvanMiya), 199th (Haslametrics)

Projected Starting Lineup:
Jordan King (Graduate Student; Albany, NY) - 18.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.3 apg, 1.3 spg; 48% FG, 42% 3-PT, 81% FT per 34.9 mpg
      Game 1 @ Richmond: 32 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal; 11-19 FG, 4-6 3-PT, 6-7 FT in 38 minutes.

Neal Quinn (Senior; Allendale, NJ) - 12 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1.4 bpg; 50% FG, 27% 3-PT, 71% FT per 27 mpg
      Game 1 @ Richmond: 11 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, 2 blocks; 3-12 FG, 5-5 FT in 33 minutes.

Isaiah Bigelow (Graduate Student; Greensboro, NC) - 11.3 ppg, 6.7 rpg; 44% FG, 40% 3-PT, 84% FT per 25.6 mpg
      Game 1 @ Richmond: 20 points, 8 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 block; 7-10 FG, 4-6 3-PT, 2-2 FT in 30 minutes.

Dji Bailey (Senior; Wilson, NC) - 10 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.9 spg; 61% FG, 33% 3-PT, 58% FT per 29.4 mpg
      Game 1 @ Richmond: 4 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist; 1-6 FG, 1-3 3-PT, 1-3 FT in 32 minutes.

DeLonnie Hunt (Senior; Upper Marlboro, MD) - 9 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 1.9 apg, 1.3 spg; 42% FG, 33% 3-PT, 77% FT per 30.8 mpg
      Game 1 @ Richmond: 12 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 steals; 4-7 FG, 2-3 3-PT, 2-3 FT in 32 minutes.

Projected Bench:
Mikkel Tyne (Freshman; Toronto, Canada) - 4.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1 apg; 32% FG, 27% 3-PT, 88% FT per 18.9 mpg
      Game 1 @ Richmond: 1 rebound; 0-2 FG, 0-2 3-PT in 5 minutes.

Jason Roche (Junior; Berkeley, CA) - 3.4 ppg; 32% FG, 32% 3-PT, 82% FT per 13.7 mpg
      Game 1 @ Richmond: 3 points; 1-2 FG, 1-2 3-PT in 16 minutes.

Tyler Harris (Graduate Student; Charlotte, NC) - 2.5 ppg, 1.5 rpg; 50% FG, 53% 3-PT, 86% FT per 12.8 mpg
      Game 1 @ Richmond: 1 rebound, 1 steal; 0-1 FG in 8 minutes.

Mike Walz (Sophomore; Berwyn, PA) - 2.5 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1 apg; 46% FG, 33% 3-PT, 71% FT per 11.1 mpg
      Game 1 @ Richmond: 2 rebounds; 0-1 FG, 0-1 3-PT in 6 minutes.

Conference Marks (A10 play only):
Turnovers Per Game: 8.6 TO/G (1st)
Assist Turnover Ratio: 1.39 Assists/TO (2nd)
Opponent FG Percentage: 39.6% (2nd)
Steals Per Game: 7.1 SPG (2nd)
Team Defensive Rebounds: 27.2 DRPG (2nd)
Team FT Percentage: 77.3% (2nd)
Scoring Defense: 64.5 PPG (3rd)
Opponent 3-Point FG Percentage: 31.4% (4th)
Scoring Margin: +4.5 PPG (4th)
Team 3-Point FG Percentage: 36.4% (5th)
Opponent Turnovers Per Game: 11.8 TO/G (7th)
Opponent FT Percentage: 75% (8th)
Team FG Percentage: 43.6% (9th)
Assists Per Game: 12 APG (10th)
Scoring Offense: 69 PPG (11th)
3-Point FGs Made: 7.1 3PM/G (12th)
Blocked Shots Per Game: 2.8 BPG (13th)
Combined Opponent Rebounds: 37.8 RPG (13th)
Combined Team Rebounds: 32.1 RPG (15th)
Rebound Margin: -5.7 RPG (15th)
Team Offensive Rebounds: 4.9 ORPG (15th) (nearly 3 ORPG worse than the 2nd worst team in conference)

Individual Leaders (A10 play only):
Scoring:
Jordan King - 19.4 PPG (3rd)

Rebounding:
Isaiah Bigelow - 7.7 RPG (4th)

Field Goal Percentage:
Dji Bailey - 58.6% (1st)
Jordan King - 48.3% (16th)

3-PT Field Goal Percentage:
Jordan King - 46.9% (6th)

Free Throw Percentage:
Isaiah Bigelow - 88.2% (4th)
Jordan King - 78.2% (21st)

3-PT Field Goals Per Game:
Jordan King - 2.7 3PM/G (2nd)

Assists:
Neal Quinn - 3.6 APG (10th)

Assist Turnover Ratio:
Neal Quinn - 1.8 Assists/TO (10th)

Blocked Shots:
Neal Quinn - 1.5 BPG (8th)

Steals:
Dji Bailey - 1.9 SPG (3rd)
Jordan King - 1.6 SPG (9th)
DeLonnie Hunt - 1.5 SPG (11th)

Minutes:
Jordan King - 36.5 MPG (2nd)
Dji Bailey - 32.3 MPG (17th)
DeLonnie Hunt - 31.9 MPG (22nd)

Keys/Trends:
- Over Richmond's past six games, they have topped 80 points in every other game. Unfortunately for GW, Richmond fell below that mark in their last game. Can GW break the streak and hold Mooney's bunch to under 80 points in consecutive games for the first time during this recent stretch?

- The Spiders are 8-0 on the year when they eclipse the 80 point mark. Meanwhile, GW is 3-10 when conceding 80 points. The Revs have also given up 80 points in each of their last seven games during the losing streak.

- Beyond just the points per game though, Richmond has been very streaky with regards to shooting lately. In their last five games, they have either shot over 50% (2 games) or under 40% (3 games). Much like their points per game these numbers have alternated each game. Unfortunately, they shot under 40% in the last game against the Minutemen.

- Richmond doesn't settle for a ton of threes. Since we last played them, just 34% of their attempts have come from distance. They have only passed their conference season average in made threes just once during this time, and that was just barely (8 made threes against Fordham).

- The Spiders are a poor rebounding squad. They have been outrebounded by their opponents in six straight games, including three games in which they lost the rebounding battle by 10+ (against us, VCU, UMass).

- Don't expect Richmond to cough the ball up too much. They are the best team in the league in terms of taking care of the ball. In four of their last six games, they have had fewer than 10 turnovers. I guess it's worth mentioning that the two contests that they had more were both on the road, but given GW doesn't tend to force the issue on defense I would expect a clean game from them.

- Can GW get to the FT line more in this game? The Revs managed to only draw nine fouls all game against the Spiders last time around. Since then, Richmond has been called for 18+ fouls in three of their last five games. Despite that, Neal Quinn was the only player to foul out during that time (and did so just once), which is pretty impressive.

- Speaking of Quinn, he has now posted fewer than 10 points in three consecutive games. He had previously not done that in even consecutive games since the first two games of the season. Granted, he was not really needed in the La Salle game. What's more impressive is that he has had at least one block in every conference game this season. He's not thought of as a vertically explosive player, but his fundamentals are very solid.

- Dji Bailey has really come on during conference play, posting double figures scoring in nine of Richmond's 11 A10 contests so far. Interestingly enough, his worst performance came against GW but I'd be surprised if that repeated. Bailey is 23/34 (68%) from the field since the last matchup. He is just 1/6 from three, so cutting off driving lanes will be critical.

- Jordan King is ridiculous. Against GW, he posted his fourth game with 11 made field goals for the season. I think JB only had three last season and he had some big time performances. Much like the team as a whole, King has been a bit hit or miss from three recently, as he went 11/15 against GW/Fordham/La Salle but just 3/15 against Dayton/VCU/UMass. Part of this is probably quality of competition, but King has often followed up a poor shooting performance with a good one and is coming off a 1/6 game from 3.

- Isaiah Bigelow figures to be the team's x-factor coming into the game. His home/road splits are interesting in conference play. There's no doubt he prefers to play at the Robins Center. Bigelow shoots 49% from the field at home compared to just 27% away. He has shot below 40% from the field in all five of Richmond's A10 road games. As we know though, GW is very proficient in helping players get going. I believe Bigelow's 20 point effort in the last matchup was his career best against D1 competition.

- Richmond doesn't really rely much on their bench in general, but Mikkel Tyne is looking to drive the ball when he's in the game. In conference play, he's just 3/19 (16%) from deep.

- On the other hand, we know what Jason Roche is looking to do when he checks into the game. 88% of Roche's shots for the season have been from three (he's taken just nine twos all year). He has struggled to find his shot this year (a career low 32% from 3 - much below his career average of 38%) and he's made multiple threes in just one conference game this season (Duquesne) but GW will need to fight over screens and not allow him to get free from the perimeter.

Projected Score: Richmond 76, GW 69. 28% chance to win (KenPom). ESPN gives us a 19.6% chance to get a W.
 

On national TV (USA) Let's hope the stands are full

MVCOLONIAL wrote:

On national TV (USA) Let's hope the stands are full

So we already got an ad for a boner pill that said they were "giving away for only $0.87". Guess their target audience is not anyone at GW because our student/alumni know that if you are being charged (even just 87 cents) then the product is not being "given away".

Smith with a bad turnover. Mental errors continue. 17-9. 

good thing is there have been fewer bad shots so far compared to recent games. Bad news is the shots still aren't falling. 

max to jacoi three was beautiful 

Richmond shooting 75%…

Gave up 50 points by halftime for the second straight game…

We are on course to  give  up 100 points.  Unreal. 52-37.