Predicting sports outcomes is always tricky, and it depends on various factors such as team performance, player form, and game dynamics.
The outcome of the game will unfold on the court, and it's an exciting aspect of sports – you never know what might happen! Best of luck to GW; may they secure a victory and improve their record to 15-12!

Saint Louis Billikens

Date: Saturday February 24th, 2024
Time: 3:00 PM ET
Venue: Chaifetz Arena
TV: ESPN+
Analytic Ranks: 209th (KenPom), 214th (EvanMiya), 196th (Haslametrics)
NET Ranking: 222nd
2022-23 Record: 21-12, 12-6 (T-2nd in A10)
2023-24 Projected Record: 11-20, 4-14 (T-14th in A10)

Head-to-Head: 9-13, and SLU has won six straight contests against GW. The Buff & Blue have also never won at St. Louis (0-9 all time). Despite the poor track record, GW hasn't been truly blown out by the Billikens in the last six games of the series (4 out of 6 have been by single digits) unlike their previous history against Dayton and VCU before ending both of those losing streaks in the last two years.

In last year's 81-74 loss at Foggy Bottom, GW missed a golden opportunity to knock off the Billikens who were without Yuri Collins for the game. In some ways, that game was a preview as to what SLU would look like moving the ball coming into this year without Collins around. St. Lou finished with just 11 assists for the game, which was almost the number of assists Yuri averaged himself per game (10.1 apg). That didn't matter I guess as much when Perkins and Pickett excelled at taking the ball to the hoop and scoring in isolation.

Despite the loss, GW went into halftime with a three point lead before things got away from them coming out of halftime. The Billikens went off on a 22-2 run in the first 9.5 minutes of the second half and came out incredibly scoring the first 20 points while GW struggled to put the ball in the hoop. What is even more amazing was despite basically being a no show for a full quarter of the game, GW was able to mount a comeback - a Hunter three point play with just under 3 minutes left cut the deficit to just two points. Ultimately, SLU did enough to win the game though, converting on 11 of 12 FTs down the stretch and making timely layups (or dunks) to keep the margin between two to three possessions the rest of the way.

The Billikens finished the game shooting nearly 53% from the field and 44% from 3. They also shot 11 more FTs than GW, which will be something to watch coming into tomorrow's game. Three GW players finished in double figures: Max (24 points, 5 rebounds), BA (19 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, although also six turnovers), and JB (14 points, 6 assists, but a 5/23 performance from the field and 3/15 from 3). It goes without saying that JB cannot settle for so many threes and be as inefficient in tomorrow's game for GW to have a chance at a win. Max's 24 points is his career best mark against A10 competition, and he has hit that number just one other time in his career (this season against Delaware).

Offensive Efficiency: 115th (KenPom), 126th (EvanMiya), 128th (Haslametrics)
Defensive Efficiency: 322nd (KenPom), 321st (EvanMiya), 313th (Haslametrics)
Pace: 74th (KenPom), 80th (EvanMiya), 67th (Haslametrics)
Home Rank: 254th (EvanMiya)
Roster Rank: 175th (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 181st
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 178th
Rim & 3 Rate: 84% (103rd)

Strengths (2023-24 Season):
Free Throws Made Per Game - 15.7 FTM (T-55th) (tied with GW)
3-PT Field Goal Percentage - 36.3% (59th)
Free Throws Attempted Per Game - 21.3 FTA (T-84th)
Free Throw Percentage - 74% (85th)

Weaknesses (2023-24 Season):
Opponent Field Goals Attempted Per Game - 59.8 FGA (T-244th)
Blocks Per Game - 2.9 BPG (T-256th)
Field Goals Made Per Game - 25.2 FGM (256th)
Opponent 3-PT Field Goal Percentage - 34.7% (263rd)
Opponent Field Goal Percentage - 45.1% (270th)
Assists Per Game - 12.2 APG (272nd) (what losing Yuri Collins does to a team)
Rebounds Per Game - 33.8 RPG (276th)
Opponent Field Goals Made Per Game - 27 FGM (T-286th)
Field Goals Attempted Per Game - 56.7 FGA (287th)
Opponent Free Throws Attempted Per Game - 21.3 FTA (291st)
Offensive Rebounds Per Game - 8.7 ORPG (299th)
Personal Fouls Per Game - 18.5 PF/G (T-303rd)
Opponent Free Throw Percentage - 73.8% (304th)
Opponent Free Throws Made Per Game - 15.7 FTM (309th)
Opponent Blocks Per Game - 4.1 BPG (T-320th)
Opponent 3-PT Field Goals Attempted Per Game - 25.3 3PA (328th)
Opponent Turnovers Per Game - 10.2 TO/G (329th)
Opponent Points Per Game - 78.4 PPG (334th) (one spot below GW)
Opponent 3-PT Field Goals Made Per Game - 8.8 3PM (335th)

Key Returning Players:
Gibson Jimerson (Junior; Richmond, VA) - 14 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.2 apg; 46% FG, 40% 3-PT, 84% FT per 33.8 mpg
      Last Season @ GW: 10 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal; 4-9 FG, 2-3 3-PT in 40 minutes.

Sincere Parker (Junior; Rockford, IL) - 5.9 ppg, 2.5 rpg; 42% FG, 32% 3-PT, 88% FT per 12.6 mpg
      Last Season @ GW: 3 points, 2 rebounds; 1-3 FG, 1-2 3-PT in 5 minutes.

Terrence Hargrove Jr. (Senior; East St. Louis, IL) - 5.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg; 48% FG, 29% 3-PT, 74% FT per 19.6 mpg
      Last Season @ GW: 7 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals; 3-7 FG, 0-2 3-PT, 1-3 FT in 28 minutes.

Key Losses:
Yuri Collins (Went Pro; St. Louis, MO) - 11.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 10.1 apg, 1.3 spg; 44% FG, 32% 3-PT, 74% FT per 35 mpg
Javonte Perkins (Graduated; St. Louis, MO) - 10.9 ppg, 1.9 rpg; 42% FG, 36% 3-PT, 82% FT per 22.6 mpg
Javon Pickett (Graduated; Belleville, IL) - 10 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.6 apg; 48% FG, 30% 3-PT, 80% FT per 22.3 mpg
Francis Okoro (Graduated; Imo State, Nigeria) - 6.8 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 1.4 bpg; 57% FG, 59% FT per 22.1 mpg
Jake Forrester (Graduated; Harrisburg, PA) - 6.7 ppg, 4.9 rpg; 57% FG, 100% 3-PT (1/1), 67% FT per 16.2 mpg
Fred Thatch Jr. (Graduated; Sikeston, MO) - 6.2 ppg, 4 rpg, 1.6 apg, 1 spg; 46% FG, 35% 3-PT, 57% FT per 20.7 mpg

Key Transfers:
Michael Meadows Jr. (Senior transfer from Eastern Washington/Portland; Hollywood, CA) - 11 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.2 apg; 46% FG, 36% 3-PT, 78% FT per 29.3 mpg
Tim Dalger (Senior transfer from Tulsa; Fort Lauderdale, FL) - 10.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg; 38% FG, 35% 3-PT, 68% FT per 24.5 mpg** (Dalger left the team last month due to a personal family matter)
Bradley Ezewiro (Junior transfer from LSU/Georgetown; Torrance, CA) - 4.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg; 52% FG, 59% FT per 12.1 mpg

Preview:
Saint Louis turned in another solid campaign last year in Travis Ford's seventh season with the program. The Billikens won 20+ games for the fourth time in the last five years and also went 12-6 in conference for the third time in the last four seasons. SLU's tied for 2nd place finish in 2023 was actually Ford's best ever finish in the league. Since the impressive run through the A10 tournament back in the 2018-19 season (SLU won four games in four days to qualify for the NCAA tournament before losing to Virginia Tech in the first round) there have been just two NIT appearances for the school (the NIT will also be harder to make now that the high-major schools want to dominate the spots in that tourney too).

The critique with Ford has been that SLU has never quite taken the next step despite the talent that he's been able to acquire over the years. Not making the NCAA tournament in four years with Collins at the point feels like a failure. The opportunity was there last year, but the Billikens did not cash in on their chances during OOC play. I also thought Francis Okoro took a sizable step back from the season before. Having said that, I have personally never placed SLU in the same tier as Dayton or VCU. Don't get me wrong - it's a very good job (one that is definitely towards the top of the league with great support) but it's just not at the top tier in the A10. I'm not sure if that's a hot take or not. Thus, finishing in the 2-6 range in the league doesn't feel like a failure, despite the lack of tournament appearances (and yes even with the A10 becoming a weaker league in recent years).

This viewpoint is of course looking at the state of the program prior to what has happened this season. It was inevitable that SLU was going to take a step back this season - losing six of your top nine scorers will do that - but bottoming out in the A10 this season has been a surprise. Again, while Ford may not necessarily be among the best coaches when it comes to in-game adjustments, he certainly has a high floor. Ford is on pace this year to win his fewest games in a season since his last year at Oklahoma State back in the 2015-16 season. He "parted ways with the Cowboys" after that year, and given this is now his eighth year at SLU, a similar announcement may be made once the season wraps up.

I think more than anything this goes to show how the transfer portal and NIL have changed the landscape of college basketball, and the expectations that come with it. I'm sure there were some talks even after last season about Ford being on the hot seat given the lack of NCAA appearances, but was that a popular opinion outside of a certain section of SLU's fanbase? The discussion has shifted this year, but that's what one bad season can do now. Not having enough NIL and recruiting the transfer portal poorly can change your fortunes as a coach in just one season - much like players being on one year scholarships. There's no sense of "rebuilding" after losing many players from the previous year (there may be a bit more leeway for newer coaches, but you often times don't get four years anymore - you have to perform by year 3).

The same thing has happened with Carm at Siena. After four consecutive top three finishes in the MAAC, to say the Saints have bottom out this year is an understatement - they are one of the worst teams in the entire country. Siena is one of the best jobs in the league and Carm clearly didn't recruit well enough last offseason, resulting in things going off the rails. I'm sure with the buyout and everything he's probably safe for another year but no one had him remotely close to the hot seat prior to this year. Oklahoma State, the school Ford was previously at, is also struggling with NIL relative to the teams in their league. Boynton has had a poor year, but the AD at the school has reportedly committed to providing him with a bigger recruiting budget next offseason in order to give him more of a chance instead of moving on from him this year. It will be interesting to see whether an "increased NIL budget" comes with the dreaded AD "vote of confidence" in the future - basically the AD saying that they have full trust that the coach will be able to turn things around the following year but if they don't they won't be with the program beyond that. That may be the preferred approach in many cases instead of paying the buyout for a coach with multiple years left on their contract.

Back to SLU though. It's been more than just the on the court issues which have plagued the team. In fact, it probably started in the offseason when assistant coach Phil Forte left for North Texas. Forte was a great recruiter and had great ties in Texas, a state which has a lot of basketball talent. His departure led to Oklahoma transfer CJ Noland de-committing and following him to UNT. Then there was Travis Ford's son creating multiple burner accounts in an effort to defend his dad as SLU fans started clamoring for a head coaching change. A couple weeks later, Tulsa transfer Tim Dalger left the program. While he was a bit streaky as a shooter, Dalger's motor is a big loss - he crashed the boards and was very skilled at attacking the rim, drawing fouls, and getting to the FT line.

SLU's identity under Ford has shifted under time which has been interesting to see. Ford certainly came to The Gateway City with the reputation of being a defense-first coach. His final team at Oklahoma State was certainly significantly more proficient defensively than offensively, as were two of his three teams at UMass. Perhaps part of his early SLU teams being better defensively was due to what he inherited upon arriving - previous coach Jim Crews had consecutive sub-300 finishes on the offensive end, but from 2017-2020 Ford's teams certainly remained a defense focused squad with Jordan Goodwin and Hasahn French leading the way. You were in for a rock fight every night against those teams. The team's effective field goal percentages were below 50% (bad) and of course SLU became known as a team that couldn't shoot free throws (in two of those seasons the Billikens shot under 60% from the stripe, yuck).

Ford realized after that point that he needed to put more points on the board. While his teams have never been heavy three point shooting squads (much like Archie Miller at URI) the Billikens were able to successfully put up points often by crashing the glass for second chance opportunities - up until this year. The defense has continued to slip every year since their last NCAA tournament squad but at the very least that side of the ball was good enough that the offense could win them games. That of course hasn't been the case this season, as this team is far and away the worst defensive team Ford has ever coached and SLU has ever seen in the KenPom era. The Billikens are conceding nearly 3 points more per 100 possessions than the next worse squad Ford coached (his 2003 Eastern Kentucky squad) and 7.5 points more than the next worst SLU defensive squad (their 2015 team). SLU has historically always been strong on this side of the ball so to see them fall apart on this end is shocking. For context, even last year's GW squad had a better defensive rating than this SLU team (by a full point). It certainly makes you think how transfers + NIL wrecking team continuity will affect these numbers for a number of teams around the country moving forward.

This year's SLU squad will be led by returners Gibson Jimerson and Terrence Hargrove Jr., who each enter their fifth year with the program.

Jimerson, a preseason all-A10 first-team selection, has started 103 of SLU's last 104 games from the 2021-22 season. Over the years he's developed into a guy who can drive more to the rim and facilitate more on offense but he got his preseason accolade from his shooting. He's a career 40% three point shooter who has made an average of 86 threes the last two years. I guess the slight disappointment is that his numbers look roughly the same as last year when it was expected for him to take on a larger load this season. His efficiency has understandably tanked with fewer pieces around him as defenses key in on him along the perimeter. Jimerson is still shooting a decent 36% from 3 but is under 40% from the field overall which are career worst numbers. I think he's only faced GW twice. He put up a more modest 10 points last year after going off for 28 on six made threes the year before.

Hargrove on the other hand is enjoying a bit of a breakout year as a full time starter now after previously being more of a complementary option offensively. He's just 6'5", but plays a lot bigger than that down low and is shooting 39% from deep with a career best 37 made threes on the year. Hargrove notably had a game earlier this year where he scored 11 points in the final 28 seconds to knock off Louisiana Tech. It's not quite Reggie Miller's 8 points in 9 seconds or Tracy McGrady's 13 points in 33 seconds, but still extremely impressive nonetheless. Hargrove is also on a hot streak lately, having made at least six field goals in eac of SLU's last three games. He's a career 3/14 from the field in three games against GW, but I'd expect him to improve on that tomorrow.

SLU's other key cog, Sincere Parker, also returns and maybe has the biggest offensive upside of the three. Parker was sidelined for a handful of games earlier in the year after breaking a bone in his right foot but has fully recovered. He came to St. Louis last year from Moberly Area CC from within the state. At the JUCO level, he definitely showcased his shot making prowess - averaging nearly 22 points a game while shooting nearly 39% from 3 with a whopping 96 made threes in the 2021-22 season. He also had multiple games where he put up 40+ points. In a bigger role this year, he has increased his scoring average by 10 points to 15.9 ppg (leads the team in scoring) while also upping his three point shooting percentage by 9 - from 31.5% to 40.7% this year. Limiting him will be priority #1 tomorrow but it will be challenging as he's good at finding space to get his shot off.

Sophomore guards and local STL products Larry Hughes II and Kellen Thames will also play larger roles this season.

The fact that Larry Hughes has a son makes me feel old, but I guess the same can be said about JNJ and Bronny being in college. Hughes made his first career start against us last year (the only start of his freshman year) after joining the program as a walk-on (I think he's on scholarship now though). His best performance as a freshman came in SLU's final game of the year, a 12 point loss to VCU in the semifinals of the conference tournament, where he put up 12 points. In general, Hughes is a good three point shooter (37% this year) but he's somehow just 10/44 (23%) from inside the arc. Hughes II is just 1/9 from the field in their last two games and has found himself in foul trouble lately - 3+ personals in four straight games.

Thames did not play much his freshman year but has carved out a nice role for himself this year. He's a 40% shooter from deep but doesn't take a ton of attempts (less than 1 per game). Thames is also just 11/23 from the FT line this year. Unlike Hughes though, he's highly efficient inside the arc - 52/77 (68%) on the year. He has hit his career high of 12 points twice in SLU's last four games and has shot 50% or better on his FG attempts in five straight games.

The remaining players are all newcomers this year (two transfers, four freshmen). Outside of Dalger, Ford landed Eastern Washington/Portland transfer Michael Meadows Jr. and LSU/Georgetown transfer Bradley Ezewiro from the portal.

The trio of transfers didn't get to play together much as Meadows has been dealing with a nagging back issue that has sidelined him the entire month of February. It's an issue that plagued him in his previous season at Portland as well. Ezewiro meanwhile only became eligible in December after previously sitting out due to the NCAA rules for second-time transfers. Dalger of course left in January as mentioned so Ford did not get much of a chance to see what his team looked like at full strength.

Meadows had an interesting offseason last year after staying committed to head coach Shantay Legans for five years (three years at Eastern Washington, two years at Portland). He originally ended up at Loyola Marymount, closer by to his hometown of Los Angeles before winding up at Cal. Meadows then reopened his commitment a second time and ended up at St. Louis. Not quite sure what he was looking for. It originally seemed like it was just a change in environment originally, but then it appeared to be just being closer to home. SLU may be the furthest away from home though and they weren't expected to content for an NCAA berth this year so it's somewhat surprising. I think before Meadows ended up following Legans to Portland we were recruiting him a bit as assistant coach Bousley under JC went to the same HS as him (Campbell Hall). Anyways, Meadows is shooting a career worst 28% from distance although is second in assists with just over 3 a game. He will probably be eased back into play if he does suit up given it's a back issue.

Ezewiro appeared in 27 games for the Hoyas last season, and even started a few games. Granted, it was a really bad Georgetown team but he did showcase an ability to score inside and crash the glass at a decent rate. He's not much of a rim protector/defender, but as we all know having an inside presence offensively can make a world of difference. Since becoming eligible in mid-December, Ezewiro has scored in double figures in all but three games. He's taken 18 free throws between SLU's last two games.

Finally, four freshmen enter the fold as Cian Medley, Bruce Zhang, Djordje Curcic, and Stef van Bussel represent the next era of SLU basketball.

Medley is a tough-nosed guard from Jersey who leads the team in assists. He's had to take on even more of the facilitating responsibility since Meadows went down. Medley has been a bit inefficient shooting the ball, which is not uncommon for a freshman. However, he is 27/30 from the charity stripe this year so better days are ahead on that front.

Zhang was also sidelined for a couple games early in the season by the NCAA (I think he had to go through the NCAA amateurism process). The 7'1" center from China has rebounded well in limited time but hasn't always finished his chances near the rim. He did not suit up in SLU's last game against Duquesne.

Curcic, a native of Serbia, has shot the ball well in the minutes he's received from off the bench (52% from the field, 38% from 3). However, he's topped 10 minutes just three times in conference play and will likely be a larger factor a year from now. Curcic has also recorded a steal in three straight games.

van Bussel comes to SLU from the Netherlands. He provides Ford another option down low at 6'10" for a few minutes here and there. van Bussel has converted on his chances at a decent rate, but like many bigs struggles at the FT line. He's actually had more FT attempts (17) than FG tries (10) and has gone just 8/17 from the line.

SLU can make an open three and fares well with regards to free throws but this is otherwise a winnable game as the Billikens don't do a lot well otherwise. It's certainly made tougher with it being on the road though. I don't know if it's realistic for JB to have another great shooting day like the one he had the other night against SJU. Other players outside of him and Jacoi will have to step up a bit if Jun and Garrett remain sidelined. The goals remain the same for the rest of the year. Close out on shots along the perimeter defensively and move the ball on offense. CC seemed to slow things down a bit the other night against Joe's which isn't a bad thing if it means the team is moving the ball but it's also important that the shot is a good/open one. Unfortunately, slowing things down may have influenced that final possession where JB turned the ball over after 18 seconds came off the clock when GW should have gone a bit quicker there.

Projected Score: SLU 84, GW 80. 37% chance to win (KenPom). ESPN gives us a 30.5% chance at avoiding a 10 game losing streak.
 

GW +5.5. Line had opened at +4.5.

Long Suffering Fan wrote:

Anybody know the playing status of Buchanan and Johnson?

Looks like they're both officially out

Long Suffering Fan wrote:

Smith's total lack of defense is on full display these first 5 minutes of the game.

Would rather see Weluche-Ume.

Two fouls on Stretch.  SLU going to beat us up inside rest of the half.

6-11 St. L 3 point shooting.  Things never change

And there’s a career high.  Curcic had only hit 7 threes this season and never more than one in a game.  He now has 3 of them and a career high 9 points. 

Every game.

Free Quebec wrote:

And there’s a career high. Curcic had only hit 7 threes this season and never more than one in a game. He now has 3 of them and a career high 9 points.

Every game.

Yep and then Benny/Zam try to match the 3s right away.  Like Caputo has said, too often we try to play the "score" instead of sticking to our offensive plan.  Curcic hit some tough 3s.  No reason to press and rush shots.

7-12 now. down 10.