what Tigers are those?

Richmond fan here.  We have lost 2 in a row for the 2nd time this season.  We played a brutal game at VCU on Tuesday night.  We tied them at the half, but we came out flat in the 2nd half and VCU steamrolled us.  We had just lost to Dayton last Saturday.  Our game against you will be the 3rd game in just over 7 days.  We will be tired.  I expect a close game that could go either way.  Feel free to visit us at spidernation.com for some cheerful discussion on why the sky in falling.

Welcome Winston. Echo GWMayhem on thoughts that our team is probably going to be even more tired after playing three halves of basketball a day after you guys. We will also probably be missing our starting point guard for tomorrow's contest. Good luck to you guys the rest of the year and hope Francis gets back soon. He has been a lot of fun to watch when healthy.

Richmond Spiders

Date/Time: Saturday February 1st @ 6:00 PM at The Robins Center in Richmond, VA.
Record Last Year: 13-20, 6-12 (T-10th in Atlantic 10)
Preseason Ranks: 92nd (KenPom), 92nd (Bart Torvik), 86th (Sports Illustrated), 125th (CBS)
Projected Record: 22-9, 12-6 (4th in Atlantic 10)
Postseason Last Year: None.

Coaching Record: Chris Mooney, 250-215 in 14 seasons at Richmond with 2 NCAA appearances, 2 NIT appearances, and 3 CBI appearances. Also previously went 18-12 in his lone season at Air Force (he was an assistant there for four years before that), good for third place. Given the Falcons have had a hard time finishing even top half of the MWC (for obvious reasons - recruiting guidelines are a bit more strict, although they do have the benefit of having no scholarship restrictions) that's pretty impressive in my book.

All Time Record: 53-38, although the Spiders came out on top both times by 20+ points last season and have overall won 8 of the past 10. According to Sports Reference, we have faced Richmond more than any other team in Division 1 (91). In last year's road meeting (an 89-63 loss), we got 23 from a hot shooting Maceo with 6 made threes (hoping for an encore tomorrow!) and 16 from DJ. Maceo was the only player who made a three for us in the game. Justin Mazzulla had 8 assists. In a season where Mezie didn't see all that much action, he actually logged 10+ minutes in both Richmond games last year, and put up 8 points in 21 minutes off the bench in the road game. While he won't see quite that much time this year, hoping we get to see him out there again tomorrow, especially with much of the team tired.

Offensive Efficiency: 52nd (KenPom), 55th (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 103rd (KenPom), 94th (Bart Torvik)
Tempo: 159th (KenPom), 174th (Bart Torvik)

Key Returning Players:
Grant Golden (RS JR; Winchester, VA) 17.2 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 3.5 apg; 50% FG, 30% 3-pt, 66% FT
      Last Year @ Richmond: 17 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals; 6-10 FG, 1-1 3-pt, 4-4 FT in 25 minutes. 

Jacob Gilyard (JR; Kansas City, MO) 16.2 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 5.2 apg, 2.8 spg; 47% FG, 36% 3-pt, 77% FT
      Last Year @ Richmond: 17 points, 5 assists, 4 steals; 7-12 FG, 3-7 3-pt in 33 minutes.

Nathan Cayo (JR; Montreal, CAN) 12.9 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.8 apg; 60% FG, 50% 3-pt, 58% FT
      Last Year @ Richmond: 9 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists; 4-7 FG, 1-1 FT in 25 minutes.

Nick Sherod (RS JR; Richmond, VA) 12.7 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.8 apg; 48% FG, 38% 3-pt, 64% FT
      Last Year @ Richmond: DNP (torn ACL)

Jake Wojcik (SO; San Jose, CA) 7.7 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.5 apg; 35% FG, 36% 3-pt, 82% FT
      Last Year @ Richmond: 12 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists; 4-8 FG, 4-7 3-pt in 34 minutes.

Key Losses:
No big-time scorer from rotation.

Comments:
If you asked Richmond fans which animal Chris Mooney would be, some would probably say cat because he has somehow had nine lives/chances to prove himself during his tenure with the Spiders, seemingly able to escape seasons in which he probably could have been fired (especially the past two where he notched just 12 and 13 wins). Mooney hasn't been worse than mediocre most years, but expectations seem to be higher at Richmond - just a couple years ago, the school announced that they were building a $15 million practice facility, and the support of the alumni is definitely there. Mooney is one of the highest paid coaches in the league (if not the highest - wasn't able to find a more recent release on that) so that definitely factors into the high standards set by the fanbase. Things reached another level last year when fans hung the fire Mooney billboard, with many fans feeling hopeless about the future of the program. The fire Mooney mafia twitter account was a fun read.

Despite the efforts to get Mooney fired, the administration brought him back, and it seems to have paid off this season. Richmond is currently in a four way tie for fourth place, and should things go their way they could get the final double bye in the tournament after Dayton, crosstown rivals VCU, and Rhode Island (though they don't hold the tiebreaker with SLU should the Billikens finish the season tied with them). The Spiders probably still need a few breaks to make the NCAA tournament, but the NIT seems like a good bet barring a total collapse. The Wisconsin win OOC looks better than it did a couple months ago, but the Auburn game would have made a major difference (a number of A10 teams could probably say that). The Spiders are on a current two game losing streak, but they were to the two best teams in the league in Dayton and VCU (and they played the Flyers tough). This will be a tough matchup - especially on the road.

It's always fun to watch Richmond's offense with Mooney's Princeton (his alma mater) scheme on full display, although I may scream if I see another missed defensive assignment when they run a backdoor cut. Under Mojo, we were burned by that countless times. Richmond is also a good three point shooting team (37%), so we will have to be better about getting around screens to close out on their guys. We weren't terrible on offense against them, but when the Spiders make 13 threes on 57% shooting in a game like they did last year, pretty much no one is going to beat them.

Richmond currently has no seniors on their team this year, so things are setting up nicely for the team to have an absolutely incredible year in the 2020-21 season as their current junior class become seniors. Grant Golden, a GW recruit at one time, is their main big man who is a very versatile offensive player. Although Golden is not putting up as many points as he did last year (13 ppg), he is still a very good rebounder (7 boards a game) and more importantly, has the ability to pass the ball out and find guys open for three along the perimeter - Golden is actually second on the team in assists at 3 a game. Expect Richmond to play many possessions through him, and this will be Chase's hardest test yet. Golden is definitely a more well-rounded scorer than guys like Osunniyi, Hughes, French and Wilson that get all of their production near the hoop. He is only shooting 15% from deep this year, but was at 30% last year. I think of him as a much more mobile and polished player than Longpré. He will be a tough matchup for sure. His frontcourt partner, Canadian Nathan Cayo, is unbelievably efficient offensively, shooting 54% from the field after a year where he shot 60% from the floor. Cayo is not a three point shooter (he took just 4 threes last year, and so far has not taken any this year) so maybe we can get away with playing off of him a bit when he has the ball along the perimeter. He can shift between the 2, 3, and 4 positions which gives Mooney some options but Cayo will probably spend most of the time at the 4. The backcourt of Jacob Gilyard and Nick Sherod will be guys we need to guard closely all game. It will be a success if we can limit them, because there is no shutting them down (their guards have been a never ending nightmare over the years penetrating - Buckingham (now at Cal St. Bakersfield), Fore, Shawndre' Jones, and Kendall Anthony come to mind). Gilyard is Richmond's best player, and has had stretches when he has been the best player in the league. He gives the Spiders a lot on both sides of the ball. Offensively, he is among the team leaders in scoring (14.5 - second on team), rebounding (3.5), assists (5.4 apg - leads team, top 5 in the league). Defensively, he is their best defender, averaging an incredible 3.2 steals per game (second in the country after Merrimack's Juvaris Hayes). We need to be sound with the ball, and it's not ideal that we won't have Armel for the game. JNJ has improved with his early season turnover issues, and we also have Amir, but Gilyard is just tremendous at generating pressure along the perimeter (just imagine him in VCU's havoc scheme). He is also a 40% shooter from deep with 43 made on the year, and shoots 87% from the line. Richmond as a team is not one you want sending to the line. We were a bit fortunate Wednesday against Davidson's 77% shooting being uncharacteristically off, but Richmond is even better at 80% (second best in country after Pepperdine). Sherod returns to the team after missing 27 games with a torn ACL. The local RVA product is second on the team in rebounding (5.4) and adds 13.1 ppg. Sherod is one of their best distance shooters at 42% with 55 made this season (4th in conference - Jamison is #1, and Maceo is #3) and is solid from the line at 78%. With Francis sidelined (fractured sternum - ouch) Sherod has been their secondary playmaker offensively alongside Gilyard. Francis is the fifth guy of their excellent junior class who was leading the team in scoring at 17.6 ppg before he got hurt. He too is a good shooter (37% from 3), rebounder, and passer so thankfully that will be one less guy to account for.

The rest of the rotation will largely consist of Richmond's sophomore class. Andre Gustavson, who hails from Finland, will add some scoring (most of his damage will be closer to the hoop as he's just 13% from deep) and rebounding. He has stepped into the starting lineup and played more minutes in the absence of Francis. Gustavson was perfect on 4 attempts from the field (8 points) in last year's road contest. Jake Wojcik, whose dad was the head coach at San Jose State from 2013-17 (shoutout to the Spartans for having their best season in a long time by their low standards - Wyoming will be finishing in the basement of the MWC this year. The funniest part is their current head coach is an alum of Fordham - maybe the Rams have found their coach for next year!). Back to Wojcik, he has seen his minutes cut this year (partly due to Sherod's return) but still has a solid FG/3-pt/FT slash of 50/43/88. He made four threes in each game against us last year. Souleymane Koureissi, another former GW target, has also shot the ball well in limited time but likely won't see enough minutes to have a large impact. He did have 10 points and 5 rebounds in 11 minutes against us at Richmond last year though. Matt Grace, another Canadian, provides some frontcourt depth but is probably the weakest offensive player on the team. Their lone freshman, Tyler Burton (who I believe we were also interested in at one point) will also see a bit of time up front. Burton is a decent scorer/rebounder in his current role with reasonable efficiency.

This will be a tough one. If we can even be competitive I will be happy given our tired legs and performance against the Spiders last year. I feel a bit better about the return game in Foggy Bottom. Part of Richmond's overall improvement has been due to improved defense - the Spiders were 287th on that end last year, and are just outside the top 100 this year. We haven't had great success against teams with roughly top 100 defenses offensively, but I worry more about our defense in this one which has the tendency to have lapses from time to time still. This will be a good experience for the young guys at the very least.

Predicted Score: Richmond 76, GW 64. 12% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us a 9.6% chance. Wonder if these percentages are with Armel out or not. I wouldn't be surprised if we are a 12 or 13 point underdog in this one.
 

Need Potter at the point. Nelson turning the back over and forcing bad shots will crush the tempo.

If Potter comes back healthy, we get some more of Paar mileage from Toro and Paar in the post, I could see this team piling up a nice stretch of W’s. Jack and Battle are dangerous and Harris has the defensive chops and speed that this team really needs.

Anyone heard anything on Potter?   If he is out, does Harris get Potter's minutes and Walker get Potter's minutes?    Lets show some growth on the road. today like we have at home

I don't love this spot for GW.  The fatigue factor, playing without Armel, going on the road, all combined with playing a Richmond team that still has NCAA aspirations but has lost two in a row to arguably the two top teams in the conference (certainly two of the top three).  Spiders should come out desperate for a win and while GW has been good enough all conference season to keep things close, I am not even willing to give GW a 9.6% chance of winning the game.  I'd say more like 4.7%.

No Potter. MRI pending

Not very sharp to start the game.  Need to calm down a bit.

Chase Paar having a tough start to this game. In the off-season he'll need to work on his hands. Has had trouble being strong on contested rebounds. He'll also need to put on significant weight, but he has plenty of time for that.