The Dude wrote:

11th seems about right, given who we have back, new parts, and the relative strength of the league

Taking off my GW hat, I'd say 9-12th, we still have a lot of work to do and the Garrett Johnson injury really changes things. 

Hoping to be wrong by about 4-7 spots

multiple variables in play - for both GWU and every other team
IMO - initial phase in domination and team chemistry development in the OOC schedule - same as for every other team
also need no major injuries
as well as a sustained high performance from 1 or 2 players that that was not expected from

GWRising wrote:

Best case 6-8 ... if all/most transfers are impactful, Nessah/Bevins/Jones contribute and Buchanan/Hutchinson continue to improve
Base Case 9-12 ... if transfers are hit and miss, Nessah/Bevins/Jones up and down and Buchanan/Hutchinson continue to improve
Worst Case 13-15 - if transfers are mostly not impactful, freshmen play like freshmen, and Buchanan/Hutchinson have a sophomore slump.

Right now I'd give the following percentages:

Best Case 30%
Base Case 50%
Worst Case 20%

More or less concur with this

porter71 wrote:

If Caputo hits the base case, does he keep his job?  JC got fired after coming in 7th in the conference in year 3.  I'm not saying that JC was the right guy here and his OOC record that season was terrible, but with a new administration here how much leash does Caputo have?  Would Lipitz want to wait another year on Caputo if we finish at the bottom half of the league?

I think/hope that the new President has other things on a higher priority for his first year.
I think/hope that with measurable improvement over last season -
More OOC wins
More Conference wins
More basketball revenue

that Coach C is safe
caveat - i dont know when his contract ends, and if it ends  April 30, 2025 or 2026 my statement is invalid

Last edited by Basketball Jones (10/03/2024 11:21 am)

I think comparing a coach’s tenure now compared with coaches before unlimited transfers and NIL is very hard to do.

At GWs level, you almost have to depend on transfers - IMO a player staying at a school for 4 years will be less than 50% unless they are a starter and even then probably still not 100% 4 year. 

I used to think coaches should get a min of 4 years so that all of the players were ones they recruited.  With the transfer system, maybe that is less or more - not sure.

I usually put zero stock in A10talk rankings, because the contributors are generally very biased towards the teams they report on/support (and yes that includes the GW ones too). Having said that, the composite rankings surprisingly look pretty fair overall. Last year's results will always factor in so not surprising to see GW where they are in most projections. The Revs are still on the younger side this year and it will be just as key to return the sophomore class another year after this season as whatever happens during the season.

I do think the A10 schedule is favorable enough that a middle of the league finish should be attainable. It's more important for me personally to see GW back in the top 150 or so nationally when the season ends, something that hasn't really been seen since ML departed. The new AD may not agree, but that would be significant progress, and would help GW be taken more seriously by others. I think the team can get there if they can stay relatively healthy. Another injury like Garrett's would be tough to absorb.

Offensively, the team should be a bit more balanced (and I think in general the team will be a lot better moving the ball given the personnel) but as has been said all offseason it's about the defense. Teams shot so well from 3 and the FT line against GW even in home games that you think some regression there by default will help.

It's also about how much this year's team able to make things tougher. Caputo opts to play a pretty conservative defense, which wasted Akingbola's talents a bit last year. I get why he did given there was nothing behind him, but it's not a good thing when the only thing you're known for on that side is "not fouling". Does that change now with multiple bodies available at the 5? Neither Hansen nor Castro provide the rim protection Stretch did, but it would be nice to see the defense extend a bit along the perimeter (or at the very least contest shots better).

I think the defense ultimately improves. Even as freshmen the returning core were better defenders than JB and Max by a significant margin. Are Moss and Drumgoole upgrades on this side of the ball? With Garrett's injury, it's even more key that Drumgoole is. On a Delaware team that was average defensively, Drumgoole was one of the worst defenders. Hoop-Explorer currently projects Moss and Drumgoole as the two worst defenders on the team, although Moss is hurt by how bad W&M was.
 

DC Native wrote:

I have never understood the sports media and fan obsession with preseason rankings. They're interesting, I guess, but pretty much worthless. Just one month ago, all the NFL prognosticators were saying that the Commanders would win 4 or 5 games and have a top 3 pick in next year's NFL draft. Now they're 3-1 and getting lots of buzz. Vegas is built on the money of people that think they can predict the future of sports teams...

Its a tool to claim the Coach isn't good or the players underachieved and has been wielded as a nonsense propagada tool on this site for years and years, but we all know the program remains in rebuild mode and that its going to be an up and down growing year as we rebuild. Hence why are we are picked about 11ith in a 15 team conference

 

Last edited by The Dude (10/04/2024 8:00 am)

A couple of things ... I am in agreement with DC Native about magazine or expert prognostications ... everyone has an opinion and most of them are not great.

That said, I gave a range of estimates based on what I've seen at practice, what I know from last year and what I know about he rest of the league. Nobody would be happier to be wrong on the potential upside. But a 6th to 8th place finish coupled with our OOC schedule likely means a 20-win season. Let's start with that and go from there. I can sign up for that.

As to CC's job security, I think we are in a whole new era. With transfers, it is hard to truly build a program in the sense of how that term was used years ago. Now, you are more trying to manage a program year to year with larger roster turnover. What does that mean for CC? I have no idea in terms of whether he needs to win 20 games this year. But I would say based on experience, less than a winning season this year is probably going to put a lot of pressure on CC in year 4. I have no information to support that other than just the way things typically go at GW and in college basketball. Let's hope we don't have to have that conversation next year and GW takes steps forward this year. I also don't think the unfortunate treatment of JC will have any impact on CC. The administrator in question is long gone, so is the President, so is the AD. I strongly believe the new AD will take a year to survey the situation and will then see how year 4 goes if year 3 is not substantially better than year 2.

That all said, I am still well in the CC camp and believe he will get this figured out soon.

Gwmayhem wrote:

Question for Rising (or anyone who may have an insight):  Realizing that this is still very much the honeymoon period, do you have any insights regarding the Michael Lipitz-Chris Caputo working relationship?  Obviously, CC is not the new AD's "guy" but there are plenty of AD's who don't feel the need to bring in someone they know well and can make things work as is.  

Things moving along smoothly so far?

 As far as anyone can tell and by all accounts, they are getting to know each other and things are going well..

GW0509 wrote:

Gwmayhem wrote:

Just out of curiosity, how long does it typically take for a men's college basketball program to reach the point where it's no longer in rebuild mode?  Wouldn't a full recruiting class (4 years) seem fair?  A class and a half (6 years)?  Two full classes (8 years)?  This is the start of Year 9 but maybe The Dude is right and that we all simply need to be patient for another what, 20 years while GW is in rebuild mode.  I'll agree that there's no constructive point in feeling frustration over this, but to insinuate that there's no justification in feeling frustration over "rebuilding" for a 9th consecutive year is beyond ridiculous.

Luckily/Unluckily for CC, the entire sport completely changed, so he not only had to rebuild from a coaching change standpoint but also completely stand up GW’s NIL program and deal with immediate eligibility for transfers. Also, those changes were best managed by schools that had institutional strength, something GW definitely didn’t have. CC has stressed that he finally feels like there is alignment from the Prez to the AD to him about the importance of basketball to GW.

So while the rebuild for the school from 2016 may be in year 9, it’s not a “normal” rebuild that Mojo or even JC had. I think if we don’t see improvement in our defensive metrics this season, the likely outcome is changes to the ACs and then if things don’t change more in 2026 Lipitz may look to make a change at HC.

I first want to agree with GW509 and others and then emphasize how much the basketball landscape has changed in just three years. I think to some extent all schools will be in some sort of "rebuild" mode each season with the ability to transfer with no penalty and the free flow of money playing a major role. And yes recruiting will be very important going forward, but for non-majors, I think a bigger emphasis will end up being on the quality of coaching. 

For the Mojo and Jamion years I saw player first coaches that could recruit but really struggled with Xs and Os and in game strategy. I was super excited when Jamion came onboard and shared his heavy statistics focused approach and his mayhem defense, but when play started, either the players never coached up on his stratagems or he wasn't able to get their buy-in. Either way, games were messy and when wins happened it felt less because they were orchestrated and more based on the athletic abilities of the players on the court.

When year one came for CC, there was definitely a feeling out period early in the season, but eventually I felt like the players began to play to a system. Players strengths and weaknesses were accounted for and serious choices were made based on who our opponent was. It was the first time for me since the Lonergan years I felt coaching was actually taking place. Fast forward to last year, and I saw a lot of that go out the window. I felt like CC catered to certain players JBIV and then Buchanan rather than develop full team strategies. Strategies for our opponents were mentioned during pressers, but I did not see those strategies in games. 

For year 3 of the CC era to be a success, I think I need to see real team coaching again and not CC relying on one or two players to take over games. I really have no idea talent wise what we have, but I think I can live with watching a well coached team play even if they lose.