DC Native wrote:

I know it's really early for rankings, but NJIT is currently 356 out of 364 on KenPom, meaning there are only 8 teams below them in the country. Their ranking is similar to Mercyhurst (351) and our first game after the MTE in VMI (353). NC A&T is higher than I thought at 261. Even that has little prepared us for what awaits after NJIT in the MTE, however, in Kansas State at 50. Also doesn't prepare us for the A10, where teams currently rank from 29 (Dayton) to 171 (Richmond). The A10 will be even tougher this year than last.

Yep, we all know our schedule is designed for confidence, chemistry, and helping the conference with wins - not for practicing against top teams.  But all we can do is play who is in front of us. 

We’ve done a great job against these teams of using our size and athleticism to overpower them inside and gain advantage, which is something we haven’t always done against these lesser teams (feels like we’ve been a finesse team for years now, until this year). 

However, it’s going to be a big adjustment against K st to face a team we can’t just overpower. Going to have to rely on team play to get open shots - then make them.  The good news is we are due some positive three point regression (we’re currently at 24%, which would be worst of any team last year, and only one team even shot below 27.5 - so you have to think our percentage improves at least a little bit).

Regardless this season is going to be a process.  And as long as we keep playing defense with intensity, instead of the no defense Bishop years, we’ll have a chance to be competitive in almost every game (of course, there will be games the shots don’t fall and we’ll get smoked, but as long as we defend and stay/get healthy, we can go into each game with hope).

NJIT Highlanders
Date: Monday November 18th, 2024
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Charles E. Smith Center (Washington, DC)
TV: ESPN+
Ranks: 360th (KenPom), 354th (Bart Torvik), 359th (Haslametrics), 358th (EvanMiya), 307th (Sports Illustrated)
2023-24 Record: 7-21, 3-13 (9th in America East)
2024-25 Projected Record: 6-25, 3-13 (9th in America East)

Head-to-Head: First time facing the Highlanders. To my knowledge, Gerald is the only player on the team who has faced NJIT in his career, which was back in the 2022-23 season when he was at Albany, a conference rival. In two games, Drumgoole averaged 24 ppg on 33% three point shooting.

Offensive Efficiency: 362nd (KenPom), 349th (Bart Torvik), 361st (Haslametrics), 361st (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 336th (KenPom), 342nd (Bart Torvik), 352nd (Haslametrics), 343rd (EvanMiya)
Pace: 341st (KenPom), 314th (Bart Torvik), 327th (Haslametrics), 333rd (EvanMiya)

Strengths (2023-24 Season):
Offensive Rebounds Per Game: 11.5 ORPG (87th)
Three Point Attempts Per Game: 23.8 3PA/G (94th)
Steals Per Game: 7.2 SPG (95th)

Weaknesses (2023-24 Season):
Scoring Defense: 75 PPG (265th)
Assist/Turnover Ratio: 0.95 AST/TO (285th)
Fastbreak Points: 7 PPG (302nd)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game: 23.3 DRPG (303rd)
Field Goal Percentage Defense: 46% (303rd)
Scoring Offense: 67.9 PPG (303rd)
Rebound Margin: -3.1 RPG (304th)
Fouls Per Game: 19.1 PF/G (316th)
Three Point Percentage: 30.2% (325th)
Scoring Margin: -7.1 PPG (327th)
Winning Percentage: 25% (328th)
Assists Per Game: 10.5 APG (334th)
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 45.4% (341st)
Field Goal Percentage: 39.4% (345th)

Projected Starting Lineup:
#20 G Tariq Francis (Sophomore; Pittsburgh, PA) - 14.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.5 spg; 39% FG, 35% 3-PT, 79% FT per 27.4 mpg/27 GP at NJIT last season
#0 G Sebastian Robinson (Sophomore; Montclair, NJ) - 5.6 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 1.9 apg; 30% FG, 21% 3-PT, 66% FT per 20.9 mpg/28 GP at NJIT last season
#5 G Jake Goldberg (Sophomore; Pasadena, CA) - 1.2 ppg, 1.5 rpg; 21% FG, 19% 3-PT, 70% FT per 9.4 mpg/26 GP at NJIT last season
#30 F Tim Moore Jr. (Graduate Student; Houston, TX) - 15.1 ppg, 6.4 rpg; 57% FG, 32% 3-PT, 78% FT per 25.2 mpg/31 GP at D2 Benedict College last season
#22 F Levi Lawal (Sophomore; Laurel, MD) - 6.5 ppg, 6 rpg; 62% FG, 55% FT per 22.6 mpg/24 GP at NJIT last season

Key Bench Players:
#43 F Jordan Rogers (Freshman; Ridgewood, NJ)
#24 G Ari Fulton (Freshman; Fayetteville, NC)
#1 G Walt Andrews Jr. (Freshman; Bridgeport, CT)
#32 F Triston Wennersten (Graduate Student; Ridgewood, NJ) - 15 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.6 apg, 1.1 spg; 52% FG, 40% 3-PT, 65% FT per 28.8 mpg/22 GP at D3 Ithaca College last season
#32 C Malachi Arrington (Freshman; Somerville, NJ)
#7 G Cameron Piggeé (Sophomore; North Brunswick, NJ) - DNP at NJIT last season
#25 F John Kelly (Freshman; Hillsborough, NJ)

Key Losses:
Elijah Buchanan (Graduated; Bronx, NY) - 13.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.5 spg; 38% FG, 26% 3-PT, 64% FT per 31.4 mpg/22 GP
Kjell de Graaf (Graduated; Rotterdam, Netherlands) - 10.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.8 bpg; 52% FG, 39% 3-PT, 85% FT per 25 mpg/13 GP
Mekhi Gray (Transferred to UMass Lowell; Montrose, NY) - 10.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.3 apg, 1.1 spg; 39% FG, 23% 3-PT, 69% FT per 31.9 mpg/28 GP
Adam Hess (Graduated; Westlake Village, CA) - 9.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg; 37% FG, 36% 3-PT, 78% FT per 30.2 mpg/28 GP

Preview:
It's always interesting to see which mid-major head coaching jobs the high major assistants target in March. There's only 364 opportunities at the D1 level, and maybe about 70 open on a good year. Some guys want the experience to lead a program, even if it means a reduction in salary at some of these places. Several of these jobs feel "un-winnable" though and I can't help but feel that performing poorly puts you at risk when it comes to landing a future head coaching gig if things don't work out.

I guess the option of rejoining a staff as an assistant is always on the table so there is a bit of job security. The head coach to assistant move is not an uncommon one in the CBB world. David Patrick has done it twice in recent years, going from UC Riverside to Arkansas and again this year from Sacramento State to LSU. Both UCR and Sac State are tough jobs so I get why he left, but then there are cases like Austin Claunch who was rolling at Nicholls before choosing to join Nate Oats at Alabama as an assistant. Claunch landed the UTSA job this year after guiding the Crimson Tide to their first ever final four appearance. This past offseason, Jeff Linder (Wyoming to Texas Tech) and Dan Engelstad (Mount St. Mary's to Syracuse) also left their head coaching gigs to be a high major assistant elsewhere.

I'm sure Kevin Willard would gladly welcome Grant Billmeier back on his staff should things not pan out at his first head coaching gig at NJIT. Billmeier had spent 12 years under Willard - 11 at Seton Hall (4 as DOBO, 7 as assistant) and followed him to College Park where he was on staff with a couple familiar A10 coaching names in Tony Skinn (George Mason) and David Cox (Rhode Island). He has his work cut out for him at NJIT, a school that has notched just three 20+ win seasons in 15 years. During that time, the school has been a member of the Great West Conference, an Independent, and the ASUN before finally finding a more geographically appropriate conference in the America East. Jim Engles is responsible for two of the three most successful seasons Brian Kennedy is the other) in NJIT's young D1 history. (Side note: it's taken a bit of time for him to field a more experienced team at Columbia, but the Lions are one to watch in the Ivy this year). Since joining the America East, the Highlanders have gone just 19-47 in conference. Vermont has been impossible to catch most years, but both Bryant and UMass Lowell have emerged as threats in recent seasons.

For the Highlanders, it would be a nice start to show some kind of improvement on one side of the ball first. In all but two seasons in their history (one being last year), NJIT has been slightly better on the defensive end - they've had four top 200 finishes in defensive efficiency (per KenPom), while they've only managed to do that once on the offensive end, which was the same year they notched their best ever KenPom finish (173rd) back in 2015. One thing that may help them is seeking more transition opportunities - since Engles left the program, the Highlanders have played a fairly middling pace under both Kennedy and Billmeier. Playing in the halfcourt has helped them to do a reasonably good job of taking care of the ball, but this is a team that has struggled to score pretty much everywhere on the court, they don't get to the FT line, and despite it being listed as a "strength" above, they are not good enough on the offensive boards to generate additional chances at putting the ball in the basket. They took a lot of threes last year, but couldn't convert on even 30% of them against D1 competition.

Now that Billmeier has experienced what it's like to lead a D1 program for a full season, year 2 should hopefully be a bit easier for him to navigate. During last year's OOC slate, NJIT did notch a couple wins against MEAC competition (Delaware State, who had a nice year, and Morgan State) and notably had a big win over Fordham. While conference play began with a six game losing streak and ended with a six game losing streak, the Highlanders did defeat Vermont and UMass Lowell over a three day span, providing a bit of optimism that they can compete with the best of the best the America East has to offer. They also had six other contests in conference play that were decided by three possessions or less, which could have resulted in an over .500 record had those gone NJIT's way.

The major obstacle for Billmeier heading into this year is handling the relative youth and inexperience of the roster. Out of the 12 guys that have seen action this season, just two are upperclassmen. Like GW, many are rising sophomores. Defensively last year, the team had moments generating on-ball pressure, but the departed Elijah Buchanan played a big role in that, ranking 162nd nationally in steals per game. He also played a big role in ending defensive possessions with a rebound, something that NJIT already struggled with even when he was on the roster. Offensively, Adam Hess provided some semblance of floor spacing, but his graduation means that his two three point makes per game will have to be replaced by someone else on the roster.

One big win for NJIT was getting Tariq Francis back, last year's America East Rookie of the Year. Francis set the tone for the team on both sides of the ball, pacing the team in points, assists, and steals. He also ranked fourth in the conference in three pointers made per game (at a 35% clip). Billmeier put a lot on his plate as a freshman, as Francis ranked second in the league in usage rate and was asked to both score and be a playmaker out of ball screens - which he did relatively well. In NJIT's wins over Vermont and UML, Francis scored a combined 57 points, and in the last 11 games of the season he was the team's leading scorer in nine of them.

Fellow sophomores Levi Lawal, Sebastian Robinson, Jeffrey Akintolu, Jake Goldberg, and Cameron Piggeé also return, providing Billmeier with a decent amount of continuity.

Lawal is a Laurel native and Mt. Zion product who led the team in rebounding last year. Unlike most of his teammates, he showed a nice touch near the rim, converting on over 60% of his attempts inside the arc. NJIT would be wise to play through him a bit more this year, although he didn't show much by ways of moving the ball as a freshman. Robinson had some moments as a secondary playmaker when sharing the court with Francis but struggled mightily with his shooting efficiency. For someone who took over six shots per game, he needs to convert on more than just 31% of them moving forward. Akintolu showed the ability to stretch the floor as a 6'7" forward, however he will be missing the year with an Achilles injury. Goldberg, a native of California, has earned more minutes this year but was even worse than Robinson from the field and didn't really provide much else when he was in the game. The hope is his 70% FT shooting means better efficiency in his second campaign. To his credit, he has shown an improvement so far through four games, shooting 36% from 3. Piggeé is technically a redshirt freshman since he sat out last year, but is listed as a sophomore on NJIT's roster. When given the chance, he can knock down a couple shots from off the bench.

Tim Moore Jr. and Triston Wennersten will be the old heads of the group. Both come in as graduate students from the non-D1 level. Moore has played D2 ball the past couple years, and his Benedict College team was pretty good last year. He led the team in scoring, was second in rebounding, and even provided a bit of rim protection/floor spacing. It's a step up in competition, but he shot over 60% on his 2 point attempts which NJIT sorely needs. Wennersten comes in from the D3 ranks, where he ranked second on a mediocre Ithaca College team in scoring (15 ppg), and led them in rebounding (7.6 rpg). He is versatile enough to guard multiple positions on the floor at 6'6", but his rebounding and ability to stretch the floor (40% from 3) will be key in helping to replace some of the production lost from the graduation of Kjell de Graaf.

Billmeier seems to be opting to build NJIT through the old-school route of developing players, so he brought in several more freshmen this year to pair with the sophomores. Jordan Rogers has already started a number of games this year, and actually started over Lawal Saturday in their game against Morgan State. He played his senior year at The Phelps School in Pennsylvania, and his dad is currently an assistant coach with the Portland Trail Blazers (he also played collegiately at Alabama). Moving forward, Rogers will need to learn to defend without fouling to earn more minutes. He has already fouled out in two of four games this year and in the other two he picked up four fouls.

Ari Fulton and Walt Andrews Jr. will add depth in the backcourt. Fulton, a three-star recruit per 247Sports, averaged 19 points and nearly 11 rebounds in his HS in North Carolina. He is also disruptive as a defender with his long frame and can play multiple spots on the floor. Andrews is a guy who we recruited a bit under JC but never formally offered. He is a good athlete and most recently played at a strong program in Hargrave for his final year of HS. Down the road, he has the potential to be an all-conference player in the America East.

Up front, Malachi Arrington and John Kelly should see minutes with Akintolu done for the year. Arrington was offered by GW late last year and also had an offer from Temple so the potential is there. At 6'10", his size alone will be of great help to the team. Kelly is another interior scorer/rebounder who seems to have been hurt for much of his senior HS season.

Finally, Quentin "Que" Duncan and Stefan Jimenez-Vojnic have yet to play on the year but could be factors come conference play. Duncan has good size at 6'5" and most recently played at an always successful Putnam Science Academy program. He also previously teamed up with Andrews at Notre Dame HS in CT, so there is some natural familiarity already. Jimenez-Vojnic is a Toronto native and the tallest player on the roster at 6'11". He averaged 13 ppg and 7 rpg in his postgraduate year at The Academy of Central Florida.

This game likely doesn't tell us a lot, although a close result would be very concerning. Since playing a bad Penn team this year close, NJIT has lost to Villanova by 37, Loyola (MD) by 18, and Morgan State by 12. Given how bad Neptune has been at Villanova this year, the margin of victory says a lot. Loyola also has a new coach this year. If CC is going to play a weak schedule, these games need to not only be won but covered as well (like win this one by 25+). Rafael will face next to no competition yet again up front, as the guys around his height will only be freshmen. Hopefully the threes fall a bit more and some of the bench guys are able to get some run.

Projected Score: GW 80, NJIT 62. 95% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik predicts a 94% chance at a win. ESPN places the win probability at 95.8%.
 

He’s injured. Pretty sure it’s his ankle. Was going to be 7th-8th man. Staff thinks he’s a big part of the future.

GWRising wrote:

You might see him tonight. It was trending that way on Friday but nothing was a 100% certain.

He was practicing in the most recent GWMBB instagram post, seems very promising.

Too early to be concerned about Sean Hansen (particularly his defense)? Also I'm beginning to think we're just a terrible three point shooting team. Surely it'll get better at some point, right...?

The 10 point lead is nice but man that was some uninspiring basketball given the opponent. 

3 point shooting? 

Jun looks pissed, in a good way. Taking over the game…

Constant switching on defense creates bad matchups