K State only leading 25-23 at half against Mississippi Valley State, the bottom team on KenPom

Kansas St. has dropped to 75 in the KenPom rankings. While this is still much better than our previous opponents, they are ranked below two A10 teams (VCU @34 and Dayton @39) and only slightly better than two other A10 teams (Mason @90 and Loyola @92). So while this is still a big test, it is a test of whether we can compete with the top of the A10, not a top team in a P5 conference…

Kansas State Wildcats
Date: Friday November 22nd, 2024
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Sports and Fitness Center (Saint Thomas, US Virgin Islands)
TV: ESPN+
Ranks: 75th (KenPom), 45th (Bart Torvik), 84th (Haslametrics), 68th (EvanMiya), 28th (Sports Illustrated)
2023-24 Record: 19-15, 8-10 (T-9th in Big 12)
2024-25 Projected Record: 13-16, 7-13 (T-11th in Big 12)

Head-to-Head: 1-4. GW's lone win against the Wildcats came way back during the 1940-41 season, when the team notched a 43-25 win at home. The two teams played four times in the 2010s, with KSU winning by 13 and 17 in two games in Manhattan. Back in 2012, they eked out a narrow 3 point victory at the Smith Center. The most recent matchup was also a neutral site game, where the Wildcats won by 8 in Las Vegas. In that game, the Wildcats built up a 9 point lead going into halftime, but both teams struggled all game to shoot the 3 (K State & GW both went 5-17 from downtown). GW actually held an advantage on the glass by 11, and nearly doubled up the Wildcats in assists 15-8.

Arnaldo Toro led all scorers with 21 points and 9 rebounds, and even went 2-4 from downtown which was a bit uncharacteristic. Steeves chipped in with 11 points of his own. Unfortunately, Jair and Yuta combined to shoot 5-25 from the field which probably made the difference. Surprisingly, Kansas State played six guys off the bench yet none of them registered a point. Despite trailing by 15 with about 10 minutes to go, GW did get it down to a 3 point game but couldn't ultimately get over the hump.

Offensive Efficiency: 103rd (KenPom), 52nd (Bart Torvik), 67th (Haslametrics), 67th (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 55th (KenPom), 46th (Bart Torvik), 126th (Haslametrics), 78th (EvanMiya)
Pace: 239th (KenPom), 236th (Bart Torvik), 266th (Haslametrics), 234th (EvanMiya)

Strengths (2023-24 Season):
Field Goal Percentage: 41.1% (34th)
Three Point Percentage Defense: 31.2% (39th)
Free Throw Attempts Per Game: 21.6 FTA (65th)
Free Throws Made Per Game: 15.6 FTM (70th)
Rebounds Per Game: 37.5 RPG (76th)
Blocks Per Game: 4.1 BPG (77th)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game: 26.4 DRPG (82nd)
Rebound Margin: +2.7 RPG (98th)

Weaknesses (2023-24 Season):
Assist/Turnover Ratio: 0.94 AST/TO (286th)
Turnovers Per Game: 14.8 TO/G (338th)
Turnover Margin: -3.6 TO (339th)

Projected Starting Lineup:
#3 G Christian "CJ" Jones (Junior; East St. Louis, IL) - 11.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 4.8 apg; 43% FG, 38% 3-PT, 62% FT per 33.4 mpg/33 GP at UIC last season
#2 G Max Jones (Senior; Clearwater, FL) - 15.3 ppg, 3 rpg, 1.9 apg, 1.7 spg; 38% FG, 39% 3-PT, 79% FT per 27.5 mpg/24 GP at Cal State Fullerton last season
#11 G Brendan Hausen (Junior; Amarillo, TX) - 6.2 ppg, 1.6 rpg; 39% FG, 38% 3-PT, 87% FT per 17.6 mpg/34 GP at Villanova last season
#1 F David N'Guessan (Senior; De Lier, Netherlands) - 7.8 ppg, 6.8 rpg; 58% FG, 17% 3-PT, 42% FT per 27.5 mpg/34 GP at Kansas State last season
#33 F Coleman Hawkins (Senior; Sacramento, CA) - 12.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 2.7 apg, 1.5 spg, 1.1 bpg; 45% FG, 37% 3-PT, 79% FT per 31.6 mpg/35 GP at Illinois last season

Key Bench Players:
#0 G Dug McDaniel (Junior; Washington, DC) - 16.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 4.7 apg, 1.1 spg; 41% FG, 37% 3-PT, 77% FT per 35.4 mpg/26 GP at Michigan last season
#10 G David Castillo (Freshman; Bartlesville, OK)
#23 F Macaleab Rich (Sophomore; East St. Louis, IL) - 3.8 ppg, 2.5 rpg; 69% FG, 54% FT per 9.8 mpg/16 GP at Kansas State last season
#14 F Achor Achor (Senior; Melbourne, Australia) - 16.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.8 bpg; 59% FG, 44% 3-PT, 71% FT per 22.7 mpg/33 GP at Samford last season
#34 C Ugonna Onyenso (Junior; Owerri, Nigeria) - 3.6 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.8 bpg; 55% FG, 59% FT per 18.6 mpg/24 GP at Kentucky last season
#21 F Baye Fall (Sophomore; Dakar, Senegal) - 0.8 ppg, 1.3 rpg; 50% FG, 33% FT per 5 mpg/9 GP at Arkansas last season

Key Losses:
Tylor Perry (Graduated; Fort Coffee, OK) - 15.3 ppg, 3 rpg, 4.4 apg, 1.1 spg; 36% FG, 34% 3-PT, 91% FT per 36.4 mpg/34 GP
Cam Carter (Transferred to LSU; Donaldsonville, LA) - 14.6 ppg, 5 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.4 spg; 39% FG, 31% 3-PT, 84% FT per 35.4 mpg/34 GP
Arthur Kaluma (Transferred to Texas; Glendale, AZ) - 14.4 ppg, 7 rpg, 2 apg; 43% FG, 35% 3-PT, 75% FT per 34.5 mpg/33 GP
Will McNair Jr. (Graduated; Philadelphia, PA) - 8 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.2 bpg; 62% FG, 25% 3-PT, 54% FT per 22.8 mpg/33 GP
Dai Dai Ames (Transferred to Virginia; Chicago, IL) - 5.2 ppg, 1.1 rpg, 2 apg; 35% FG, 33% 3-PT, 70% FT per 20.5 mpg/31 GP

Preview:
Welcome to the "Max Edwards left me" bowl! In all seriousness, this will be a good measuring stick as to where the team stands against competition closer to what they'll see in conference (at least the better teams).

The Wildcats turned to Jerome Tang two seasons ago after a full decade under Bruce Weber, who had plenty of success at the program. Unfortunately, wins were harder to come by towards the end of Weber's tenure - K-State notched just 34 total wins in his last three years at the helm (roughly 11 per season). It felt like the right time to move on for KSU, as Weber generally found success "the old-fashioned way". That is, developing players from HS so that by the time he had a roster with mostly upperclassmen the Wildcats could play with anyone in the Big 12. As we all know, NIL and the transfer portal would have made that approach impossible, and Tang seems to have the right personality to take over in this new era.

Kansas State was a great story in Tang's inaugural season. The Wildcats made it to the Elite Eight after being picked dead last in the Big 12 preseason poll. Markquis Nowell was always a baller - he was a well-regarded recruit out of HS in NY even when he committed to Little Rock. Under Tang, he had a career year as both a scorer (17.6 ppg) and passer (8.3 apg). Nowell kicked it into another gear in March, averaging an insane 23.5 ppg, 13.5 apg (an assist to turnover ratio well over 3!), shot 42% from 3, and 92% from the FT line. The no-look pass in the Sweet 16 against Michigan State was one of the more memorable plays in March in recent years:




Right behind Nowell in scoring that year was Keyontae Johnson, who missed nearly two seasons of CBB prior to arriving in the "Little Apple" after he collapsed on the court in a game against Florida State back in 2020 when he was still a Florida Gator. There were major concerns as to whether Johnson would be able to hold up over the course of a full season after he was diagnosed with acute myocarditis, an underlying heart condition that caused his heartbeat to suddenly speed up. He not only proved that he could hold up, but he showed little rust coming off multiple years of not playing. Johnson scored in double figures in all but two games in the 2022-23 season. The Ringer had a nice story on his comeback last year.

Expectations were naturally through the roof last year, but it was always going to be tough to replicate the magic of Tang's first year after he lost his top four scorers from that team. A lot was asked of Tylor Perry to basically replace Nowell. Perry was a good player at North Texas, but it was a big ask to move up to the Big 12, play for a new coach, and in general play in a system at the D1 level that didn't operate at a snail's pace. It's not that he flamed out at KSU by any means - Perry ranked 83rd nationally in total assists, 12th in FT%, 97th in FTA, 97th in 3P%, and 47th in Three Pointers Per Game all while leading the conference in minutes, but following Nowell was a tough act to follow. Arthur Kaluma did have a career year from 3 after coming over from Creighton, but he has always been a bit turnover prone.

It wasn't just Kaluma, as taking care of the rock was a team-wide issue. K-State finished a dismal 345th nationally in turnover rate (per KenPom) which really tanked their offensive efficiency. Compared to the previous year, the Wildcats were not as good a shooting team either despite taking a greater percent of their shot attempts from there. KSU faded down the stretch, winning just 5 of their final 15 games but they remained competitive thanks to a solid defense. Under Tang, K State has been solid at contesting shots, despite last year's team not being as proficient in forcing turnovers. Iowa State sent them home in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 tournament just five days after the Wildcats had topped the Cyclones at home in their regular season finale. Despite the tough end to the year, Tang remains a perfect 12-0 in games that go to overtime. That almost feels impossible, but let's make sure this game doesn't go into extra time.

The Wildcats once again lose their top four scorers from last year. Perry, Kaluma, Cam Carter (who went off for 20 points against his former team last week), and Will McNair Jr. all depart. The last one may sound familiar to some on here. McNair visited GW last offseason when CC was in dire need of a big. He ended up committing to Providence and later switched his commitment to Kansas State instead (which opened up minutes for Rafael to be Josh Oduro's backup). Funnily enough, Kansas State's top returning scorer, David N'Guessan, also visited GW a couple years back after transferring from Virginia Tech. As an aside, Mike Young seems to have lost a ton of talent at Virginia Tech simply by not playing some of his bench guys enough - JoeBam, Jun, Darius Maddox (George Mason), and N'Guessan all fall under that category. It seems like the Hokies are in for a tough season after losing to Jacksonville by 10 at home last night.

N'Guessan is a native of the Netherlands who play at nearby Mt. Zion Prep in HS. He is a fairly good finisher near the hoop and prefers to attack going downhill as shown by his career 45% FT shooting and 29% from 3 splits (he is 2/3 from deep to start this year, although it is anybody's "N'Guessan" whether he can keep that up). Last year, he took a major step forward with his rebounding, and so far this year he is averaging nearly five offensive rebounds per game (N'Guessan was 81st nationally in that category last year - only Sam Godwin of Oklahoma fared better in the B12). Boxing him out will be a major key tomorrow night.

The only other returners from last year are Macaleab Rich and Taj Manning. Rich rode the bench for the entirety of February last season but closed the year by scoring a combined 13 points in two contests against Kansas and Iowa (the latter in the first round of the NIT). He will continue to be a fixture in the rotation this year. Like N'Guessan, he's more of a forward who likes to attack the rim and draw contact, having taken just one three on the year. Manning saw limited time last year, and only logged 10+ minutes in just two contests. It appears that he will continue to be a deeper bench option this season based on KSU's games so far.

As mentioned earlier, Tang felt like the right hire to take over the program in the NIL era. I'm skeptical that Weber would have been able to muster up the support to land a transfer like Coleman Hawkins, who is reportedly making $2 million in NIL (probably 4x GW's entire budget). Hawkins was a guy who I was really high on out of HS when he was at Prolific Prep in California. He is a matchup nightmare who has the ability to handle the ball at 6'10" and can score at all three levels. Up until last year (when he shot 36% at Illinois), his three point efficiency hasn't been great which is surprising to me. Hawkins got off to a slow start last year (15/46 from the field through six games) and that seems to be the case again so far. It's never good to go 1/11 from the field against Mississippi Valley State. You would think that at some point he is going to start to get it going. Hopefully that isn't tomorrow.

Two more high-major transfers will join Hawkins in the frontcourt. Ugonna Onyenso was a top-40 recruit who spent two years at Kentucky and started 14 games last year for Calipari's Blue Wildcats. He's not a super high-usage offensive threat, but he is an excellent deterrer down low. Onyenso averaged 2.8 bpg, which would have been a top 5 mark nationally (even above Akingbola) had he played enough minutes to qualify. Last season, he had a game where he swatted 10 shots against Ole Miss. Baye Fall comes from Calipari's new school, Arkansas. He didn't see much run as a freshman but could develop into a key piece off the bench this year for the Wildcats.

K State also added two more guys from the power conference level in the backcourt. Tang asks a lot of his point guards, meaning a lot will be put on the plate of Dug McDaniel following the graduation of Perry. McDaniel, who is shorter in stature like Perry and Nowell, had a successful season at Michigan amidst some chaos. He served an academic suspension during the second half of the year, which prevented him from playing in games away from Ann Arbor. He is a good shooter, rebounds well for his size, and had nearly a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio, an area where K-State disappointed last year. I do wonder a bit whether his shooting stats were inflated a bit from only playing at home in Big Ten play, but his numbers overall looked similar to his freshman year. Should Jacoi be good to go, that should make for a great matchup. That is, if McDaniel plays. He was held out of the last game against MVSU due to a "coaching decision".

Brendan Hausen should benefit from McDaniel's passes. He is a career 40% three point shooter and canned 61 threes last year for another "Wildcats" school in Villanova. Hausen probably made the right decision to get the heck out of Philadelphia given the state of that program this year.

Tang didn't stop there, landing three productive guys from the mid-major level as well in Max Jones (Cal State Fullerton), Christian "CJ" Jones (UIC) - no relation to Max, and Achor Achor (Samford).

(Max) Jones is another great shooter who knocked down 76 threes at a 39% clip across two years in Fullerton. He's more than just that though, as he'll help out on the boards and be a secondary playmaker on the floor. Jones was a bit sloppy with the ball and his shooting efficiency took a hit in his sophomore campaign but Tang is hoping that lowering his usage will lead to better efficiency across the board.

Obviously, one of the side storylines of this game will be the Christian Jones vs Christian Jones battle. We were robbed of that matchup last year when GW faced UIC as our CJ redshirted. KSU's CJ is a versatile piece in the backcourt. He can make a three (career 36%), but more importantly can play the point as he averaged nearly five assists per game for the Flames last year. That will be important as the availability of McDaniel over the course of a full season is not guaranteed. Hopefully CC learned a thing or two from the UIC game last year to prevent him from going off again against us. Jones had 22 points, 5 rebounds, and 7 assists in the Flames win.

Achor squared was a major piece for a very good Samford team, although given all the pieces Tang has added, it's unclear how large his role will be on the team. He missed the first two games this season due to a family emergency, but should see a sizable rotation role moving forward. For the Bulldogs, Achor did it all - he dominated in the paint, rebounded at a high clip, swatted shots, moved the ball, and even made 27 threes at a near 44% clip to keep defenses honest. In Samford's NCAA tournament game, Achor put up 23 points and 8 rebounds in a close contest against Kansas.

The final pieces on the Kansas State roster are true freshman David Castillo and JUCO import Mobi Ikegwuruka. Castillo, an Okie, is the lone first-year player on the roster but has already played an important role in the rotation. He's had a rough start shooting the ball so far, but is 86% at the FT line - better performances from him are ahead. Ikegwuruka played on a good Ellsworth CC team and averaged a double-double, leading his team in scoring (19 ppg), rebounding (10.3 rpg), steals (2.1 spg), and blocks (2.2 bpg). The Big 12 is a big step up and it seems Tang added him as more of an insurance policy. He turned the ball over more than two times a game - that will need to be cleaned up to earn more minutes.

The threes are going to have to start falling tomorrow, as the Revs are not going to have nearly as easy of a time scoring inside with guys like Onyenso, Fall, and others patrolling the paint. Kansas State hasn't shot the ball great to start the year, but the perimeter guys will have to ensure that the Wildcats aren't getting open looks from deep and beating them off the dribble. The latter will potentially expose the frontcourt and put Jun and Rafael in foul trouble. Keeping the score relatively close would definitely be a success even if a loss is expected.

Projected Score: Kansas State 77, GW 71. 29% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik predicts a 21% chance at a win. ESPN gives us a 24.1% chance at a W.
 

Thanks DMV for another well written preview.

One potential wrinkle could be that like their fans, maybe the K State staff thinks they're playing George Mason and not GW: Turkey Tournament - K-StateFans.com • By Fans, For Fans of Kansas State University

Free Quebec wrote:

Any word on whether Jacoi is playing?

The team posted pictures of Jacoi jumping off a catamaran into the ocean on Instagram so I have to think that is a positive sign for the health of his ankle.

GW Basketball Insiders podcast is back with a preview of tonight's game and the MTE as a whole. We started with an interview with Caputo (who was on the side of the road cause the bus broke down on the way back from shootaround). It goes live at 4

https://www.youtube.com/live/dagl_aiBJzU?si=ccreFvSUCNbYD02W

1-6 to start the game...not ideal. Not sure Trey is taking 3s when he's had such a hard time making them this year.

When your game plan is to shoot the three and no one on your team can shoot the three, you’re in for a long night…

I wish I could say I understand what we are doing. We pump 3’swithout hesitation by guys who can’t shoot. K State is very beatable but we look like we have spent too much time on the beach,

There are only 3 guys (maybe 4) on this team who should be allowed to take 3s at this point and all three of them take less than Drumgoole and Moss who are shooting ~20% a piece. Those guys need to stop taking them even if they're open. They aren't falling and I'm not convinced they will at this point.