Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Date: Saturday November 23rd, 2024
Time: 5:30 PM ET
Venue: Sports and Fitness Center (Saint Thomas, US Virgin Islands)
TV: ESPN+
Ranks: 256th (KenPom), 213th (Bart Torvik), 185th (Haslametrics), 270th (EvanMiya), 213th (Sports Illustrated)
2023-24 Record: 19-14, 10-8 (5th in Sun Belt)
2024-25 Projected Record: 10-18, 7-11 (T-11th in Sun Belt)

Head-to-Head: First time facing the Ragin' Cajuns!

Offensive Efficiency: 220th (KenPom), 227th (Bart Torvik), 178th (Haslametrics), 290th (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 292nd (KenPom), 187th (Bart Torvik), 253rd (Haslametrics), 234th (EvanMiya)
Pace: 141st (KenPom), 152nd (Bart Torvik), 150th (Haslametrics), 145th (EvanMiya)

Strengths (2023-24 Season):
Three Point Percentage Defense: 27.6% (1st)
Turnovers Forced Per Game: 14.8 TO/G (22nd)
Steals Per Game: 8.6 SPG (26th)
Turnover Margin: +3 TO (29th)
Fastbreak Points: 11.9 PPG (82nd)

Weaknesses (2023-24 Season):
Free Throw Attempts Per Game: 17.2 FTA (266th)
Fouls Per Game: 17.9 PF/G (268th)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game: 23.1 DRPG (313th)

Projected Starting Lineup:
#2 G Kentrell Garnett (Senior; Donaldsonville, LA) - 9 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.1 spg; 44% FG, 39% 3-PT, 72% FT per 30.9 mpg/33 GP at Louisiana last season
#13 G Christian Wright (Senior; Alpharetta, GA) - 3.3 ppg, 1.1 rpg; 34% FG, 26% 3-PT, 77% FT per 18.5 mpg/29 GP at Oregon State last season
#4 G Kyndall Davis (Senior; Chicago, IL) - 10.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.6 apg, 1.4 spg; 39% FG, 26% 3-PT, 65% FT per 26.5 mpg/32 GP at Eastern Illinois last season
#8 G Mostapha El Moutaouakkil (Junior; Rabat, Morocco) - 25 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 2.7 apg, 1.5 spg; 55% FG, 39% 3-PT, 65% FT per 27.4 mpg/23 GP at Indian River State College (JUCO) last season
#23 F Kyran Ratliff (RS Sophomore; New Orleans, LA) - 2.6 ppg, 2.2 rpg; 51% FG, 17% 3-PT, 68% FT per 10.8 mpg/33 GP at Louisiana last season

Key Bench Players:
#52 G Michael Thomas (Senior; Lake Charles, LA) - 6 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 1.9 apg, 1 spg; 42% FG, 34% 3-PT, 74% FT per 18.3 mpg/33 GP at Louisiana last season
#10 F Zeke Cook (Senior; Pheba, MS) - 6.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1 apg, 1.4 spg; 38% FG, 14% 3-PT, 66% FT per 25.3 mpg/30 GP at Jackson State last season
#0 F Jeremiah Evans (Freshman; Shreveport, LA)
#5 G London Fields (Sophomore; Tupelo, MS) - 2.3 ppg; 44% FG, 32% 3-PT, 86% FT per 7 mpg/26 GP at Louisiana last season
#3 G Chancellor White (RS Sophomore; Richmond, TX) - 2.7 ppg, 1.6 rpg; 33% FG, 33% 3-PT, 57% FT per 7.3 mpg/14 GP at Louisiana last season
#11 G Koron Davis (Junior; Gary, IN) - DNP at Louisville last season
#34 F Hosana Kitenge (Senior; Crawley, United Kingdom) - 11.9 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.9 apg, 1.2 spg; 56% FG, 33% 3-PT, 63% FT per 26.3 mpg/33 GP at Louisiana last season* (out for season)

Key Losses:
Kobe Julien (Transferred to Arkansas State; Baton Rouge, LA) - 17.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.2 apg, 1.1 spg; 45% FG, 33% 3-PT, 82% FT per 31.5 mpg/33 GP
Joe Charles (Transferred to McNeese State; Carencro, LA) - 11.3 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 1.1 apg, 1.8 spg, 1.1 bpg; 44% FG, 34% 3-PT, 79% FT per 33.6 mpg/33 GP
Themus Fulks (Transferred to Milwaukee; Winston-Salem, NC) - 10.6 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 4.4 apg, 1.3 spg; 40% FG, 26% 3-PT, 77% FT per 29.5 mpg/29 GP
Blake Butler (Graduated; Louisville, KY) - 6.1 ppg, 2.1 rpg; 41% FG, 37% 3-PT, 67% FT per 15.1 mpg/15 GP

Preview:
The beginning of this preview has absolutely nothing to do with basketball. When I think of the Ragin' Cajuns from a GW perspective, my mind instantly goes to the time the softball team faced them in the 2021 NCAA Tournament, the first time the team qualified for the postseason in team history. UL-Lafayette began the year ranked #9 in the country and naturally the Buff and Blue were major underdogs headed into the matchup. Things got off to a bad start, as two batters in GW legend Jenna Cone went down with an ankle injury on her way to first base. Thankfully, that was not the last at-bat of her career as she was able to pinch-hit the following day and in true Hollywood fashion, whacked a single the other way for a base hit. Cone finished her career with 254 runs batted in, which ranks 20th all-time in NCAA history. Despite the loss of such a big-time player, GW battled, and the always dependable Sierra Lange took the game all the way to the 11th inning. The Ragin' Cajuns would walk it off on an RBI double, but it was an impressive showing nonetheless. Fingers crossed the softball team can qualify for the conference tournament this year.

Anyways, back to basketball. Bob Marlin enters year #15 on the sidelines in Lafayette, looking to keep things rolling. The Ragin' Cajuns can never be counted out as a Sun Belt contender as long as Marlin is coach, and ULL's floor will always be high. Louisiana has never finished with fewer than 8 wins in conference under Marlin, and they've won 20+ games five times since the 2013-14 season (with two NCAA tournament appearances). Prior to Louisiana, Marlin spent 12 seasons at Sam Houston State, back when the Bearkats were in the Southland. One could argue all the success Jason Hooten had there (and now Chris Mudge after him) is thanks to Marlin, as SHSU is competitive year after year. This year in particular could be a special one for the veteran coach, as he is just eight wins away from hitting 500 wins as HC.

On the hardwood, Louisiana takes the "Ragin'" portion of their moniker seriously. Under Marlin, ULL has always played at a fairly frenetic pace, although they've slowed things down a little the past couple years. The 2023 tourney team finished 124th in adjusted tempo, the first time Lafayette fell out of the top 100 in that category since 2010. Transition is always an important avenue of scoring for the team, as is getting to the FT line (prior to last year) and crashing the glass for extra opportunities (although this year's addition may have trouble with the latter - more on that later). Defensively, Marlin recognizes the value in preventing looks from deep so his teams fare well in running opponents off the line and forcing teams to play a bit more in isolation. He will exert quite a bit of pressure along the perimeter in the hopes of picking the pocket of opponent guards.

Of course, the one downside of Marlin's approach is when you run teams off the line the next stop is usually a trip to the paint. On his best teams, he's had a true enforcer (like Jordan Brown) making things tough near the rim however last year's unit did not get the job done, ranking a dismal 317th in 2P FG%. That was on top of the free points ULL always concedes by fouling teams and sending them to the line, often an issue under Marlin. That's the tradeoff when a team gambles for steals along the perimeter and puts a ton of pressure on their frontcourt to keep their arms straight when contesting shots down low.

You'll notice that Louisiana had the honor of having the best "three point percentage defense" last year. Limiting clean looks help, but having the top defensive three point field goal percentage inherently takes a bit of luck, meaning major regression is likely coming Louisiana's way this year (GW may not make them pay, but other teams may). UL is already experiencing that reality, as foes have shot nearly 39% from 3 against them on the young season. The Sun Belt is not a conference known for its three point shooting so that's something that they can maybe hang their hat on.

Unlike Kansas State, Louisiana does not have a ton of true size, and their frontcourt took a major hit just before the season when Hosana Kitenge went down with a non-contact injury, ending his year. Kitenge was the team's second leading scorer last year and was expected to be the leader up front. It's a similar sized loss as Garrett going down for us, if not bigger. Kitenge and the departed Joe Charles (who is also currently in the USVI with McNeese) were the two best rim protectors last year which is a bit concerning for a team that was already below average at that position.

The loss of the elder Kitenge puts that much more pressure on Kyran Ratliff and Jeremiah Evans, the only players remaining on the roster 6'8" or taller.

That puts ULL in a tough spot, as this inexperienced duo will be exposed when opponents drive to the rim - Ratliff is a sophomore, while Evans is a true freshman. Ratliff did get valuable experience last year, appearing in all 33 games for the Cajuns. He was not a big time scorer, but showed a nice touch near the rim in his roughly 10 mpg off the bench. Evans, a fellow three-star recruit per 247Sports, is a bit more assertive offensively and will also help with the rebounding efforts. Hopefully, some of those boards will come on the defensive end as ULL struggled at times to finish possessions with a rebound and will need help to replace the lost production of Kitenge and Charles.

Louisiana's other returners are all in the backcourt. Nowadays, we tend to focus on what's wrong with CBB and the transfer portal, but guys like Kentrell Garnett and Michael Thomas who have remained loyal to the same school for five years deserve to be celebrated and given their flowers. Garnett has been a reliable marksman from deep, canning 50+ threes in each of the past three seasons and is a career 41% shooter from 3. So far in his career, shooting has been his role but the transfer of Themus Fulks may force him to take on some passing duties as well. Fulks was third in the conference in assists, averaging 4.4 apg last year. Thomas meanwhile will have to come to terms with the fact that people are going to ask him if he played wide receiver for the New Orleans Saints the rest of his life. In all seriousness, he's a solid proven bench piece who will be a leader on the team and be good for a couple buckets a game on so-so efficiency.

Sophomores Brandon Hardy and London Fields also return, providing Marlin additional options at the guard position with good size. Hardy closed the year strong, finishing in double figures in three of ULL's final four regular season games. He didn't shoot the three well last year but could very well take a sophomore leap when he returns to action. He is currently expected to miss six weeks due to a broken jaw. Fields showed some potential as a shooter, but has so far not really taken on an expanded role in year 2. Expect him to see some run from off the bench. Marlin will also receive a boost from the return of Chancellor White, who missed all of last season due to injury. At 6'6", White will likely be asked to play a number of positions on the floor.

A major issue Marlin faces going into this year is who emerges as a go-to weapon on the squad offensively. The loss of Kobe Julien, a second-team all Sun Belt selection, is absolutely massive. Julien led the conference in scoring at 17.3 ppg (108th nationally). All the returners mentioned above can be great complementary options, but aren't really alphas on the offensive end. Garnett and Thomas seem unlikely to double their scoring in year 5, but maybe one of the sophomores - Hardy, Fields, White, or Ratliff can get there.

If the returners cannot get the job done, perhaps someone from Marlin's five-man transfer class will. All of them are upperclassmen, which will hopefully make the transition to their new school easier. Christian Wright began his career at Georgia as a role player before transferring over 2,600 miles away to Corvallis. Throughout his career, Wright has been pretty awful shooting the ball - he's a career 24/119 (yuck!) from 3, although he's a reliable 84% from the FT line. Those three point numbers were before he went 5/5 against Liberty, but a repeat performance in game 2 feels unlikely. Like many of Louisiana's returners - he hasn't really provided much by ways of rebounding or passing either but he will likely see some time at the point given the uncertainty there.

Also arriving from other D1 schools are Kyndall Davis (Eastern Illinois) and Zeke Cook (Jackson State), who were both productive players at their previous stops. Davis has not seen a lot of winning between his time at LIU and EIU, but he did finish in double figures in nearly half of the games the Panthers played and notably had a great February where he had a string of seven consecutive games finishing in double figures. Cook meanwhile has been a rebounding magnet, averaging over six rebounds a game across two seasons at JSU. Unfortunately, neither Davis nor Cook are known for their scoring efficiency either but it certainly doesn't hurt to have additional options to turn to.

Koron Davis I guess is technically a D1 transfer as well after he spent last season sitting in the stands watching the dumpster fire that was Louisville. There was so much dysfunction with that Cardinal program that it's hard to remember everything. The school announced that Davis was transferring. Davis then issued a tweet saying he had no intention to transfer. He was later dismissed from the program, leading to speculations whether it was due to academics or something that happened in practice. Davis once again took to Twitter to show that he was in good academic standing, making the decision even more confusing. Anyways, it was probably for the best that he transferred elsewhere. The cousin of Florida Atlantic/Arkansas star Johnell Davis certainly has a lot of untapped potential after he poured in nearly 24 ppg at LA Southwest College a couple seasons ago.

The final newcomer, Mostapha El Moutaouakkil, could be the answer to many of Marlin's problems. The Moroccan led his 25-6 JUCO squad in scoring, shot the three well (39%), rebounded well on both ends, and showed some passing chops. He is listed as a guard but has the versatility to play a bit at the 4 if needed. He will likely find himself in the starting lineup more times than not throughout the year.

It may have taken a half to get into the flow of things (getting off to slow starts is very frequent under CC), but it was good to see the team fight back in the second half. It was clear that playing in the halfcourt was not a good option against K State as every shot seemed contested and well-covered before halftime. GW had much more success in the second 20 minutes by running off misses. The Wildcats are not a super uptempo team, and I think playing faster led to them making some careless mistakes as well. Rafael had a good game, although I am not sure that his flagrant in the first half was necessary. Jacoi put on in front of his family which was cool to see and I hope he can stay healthy for the remainder of the MTE. I continue to love what CJ brings with every passing game. He is an absolute pest in the backcourt. Game after game he makes a game changing steal in the second half. Jun experienced the difference in competition when he drove to the hoop - K State simply had too much height to make finishing at the rim easy. The best play in the first half was when Jacoi found him cutting to the rim - more of that needed to be done to get him going. Still, DBJ did a great job on the boards and as a passer. Good to see Drumgoole get going a bit after halftime - he definitely seems like a guy who succeeds once he gets into a rhythm, that just needs to happen more often. I get the Drumgoole/Moss disappointment so far, but honestly I didn't expect either one to be a starter (until Garrett went down). Drumgoole was supposed to be playing behind Garrett, and coming into the year I thought Moss was going to play behind Autry. I still like what Autry brings to the table - coming into the year I thought he might become a higher minute guy but he might just be better served as a spark off the bench. Asking Hansen to guard Achor was literally "a chore" and didn't seem particularly fair. He was just completely outmatched. Unfortunately, he had to play a lot by default because GW lacks in size up front. There are things he does well, but I question the fit on the team. Defensively, I thought the perimeter defense was actually better than usual and the rotations were crisper. The problem is that guarding penetration was an issue and it became a layup line once Kansas State got into the paint due to the size difference (also they weirdly had a lot more bank shots than the average team). There's just no one on the roster who could account for both the 4 and 5 that KSU was putting out there. I will say Hawkins was very underwhelming - definitely not worth the 2 million dollars. Hopefully the team can carry the second half performance over to the second game. If the above preview wasn't clear enough, the key is to get to hoop and FT line against UL. Running GW off the three point line may actually be a good thing if Louisiana continues to play that way.

Projected Score: GW 80, Louisiana 74. 72% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik predicts a 66% chance at a W.