False. DBJr was excellent, unless you always choose to see the world and every glass as half empty

Blessed to have such a great player

Post has ignored Mason and AU as well. The only articles I see are about Georgetown beating cupcakes. UVA has gotten more ink than GW, AU, and GMU.

Illinois State Redbirds
Date: Monday November 25th, 2024
Time: 3:00 PM ET
Venue: Sports and Fitness Center (Saint Thomas, US Virgin Islands)
TV: ESPN+
Ranks: 186th (KenPom), 165th (Bart Torvik), 176th (Haslametrics), 166th (EvanMiya), 159th (Sports Illustrated)
2023-24 Record: 15-17, 9-11 (T-7th in MVC)
2024-25 Projected Record: 16-15, 9-11 (8th in MVC)

Head-to-Head: First time facing the Redbirds! Hopefully the new Director of Player Development Sam Ebersold can provide a few pointers having faced ISU while he was on staff at SIU.

Offensive Efficiency: 157th (KenPom), 156th (Bart Torvik), 146th (Haslametrics), 158th (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 236th (KenPom), 197th (Bart Torvik), 247th (Haslametrics), 203rd (EvanMiya)
Pace: 283rd (KenPom), 277th (Bart Torvik), 325th (Haslametrics), 297th (EvanMiya)

Strengths (2023-24 Season):
Scoring Defense: 67.7 PPG (62nd)
Fouls Per Game: 15.7 PF/G (82nd)

Weaknesses (2023-24 Season):
Turnovers Forced Per Game: 10.8 TO/G (272nd)
Field Goal Percentage: 42.4% (285th)
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 47.9% (290th)
Steals Per Game: 5.6 SPG (291st)
Fastbreak Points: 7 PPG (298th)
Three Pointers Made Per Game: 6.1 3PM/G (303rd)
Scoring Offense: 66.5 PPG (320th)
Blocks Per Game: 2.3 BPG (324th)
Three Point Percentage: 29.2% (339th)

Projected Starting Lineup:
#11 G Johnny Kinziger (Sophomore; De Pere, WI) - 8.7 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.8 apg; 46% FG, 39% 3-PT, 86% FT per 24.7 mpg/32 GP at Illinois State last season
#3 G Dalton Banks (Graduate Student; Eau Claire, WI) - 8.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1 spg; 38% FG, 30% 3-PT, 60% FT per 30.5 mpg/32 GP at Illinois State last season
#4 G Landon Wolf (RS Junior; Cedar Falls, IA) - 4.7 ppg, 1.3 rpg; 49% FG, 43% 3-PT, 81% FT per 13.7 mpg/30 GP at Northern Iowa last season
#22 G Ty Pence (Sophomore; St. Joseph, IL) - 0.8 ppg, 0.7 rpg; 18% FG, 4% 3-PT, 42% FT per 9.1 mpg/24 GP at Illinois State last season
#35 F Chase Walker (Sophomore; Columbus, OH) - 3.2 ppg, 2.1 rpg; 53% FG, 75% FT per 7.6 mpg/17 GP at Illinois State last season

Key Bench Players:
#1 G Malachi Poindexter (Graduate Student; Mineral, VA) - 8.6 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.6 apg; 39% FG, 34% 3-PT, 84% FT per 23.9 mpg/32 GP at Illinois State last season
#33 F Caden Boser (Graduate Student; Eau Claire, WI) - 12.6 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 2 apg; 48% FG, 41% 3-PT, 77% FT per 28.1 mpg/26 GP at D2 Valdosta State last season
#0 F Jack Daugherty (Freshman; Brookfield, WI)
#23 F Cameron Barnes (RS Freshman; Duncanville, TX)

Key Losses:
Darius Burford (Transferred to UT Arlington; Bolingbrook, IL) - 12.8 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1 spg; 43% FG, 21% 3-PT, 78% FT per 28.1 mpg/22 GP
Myles Foster (Transferred to Clemson; Brooklyn, NY) - 12.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 1.7 apg; 53% FG, 8% 3-PT, 63% FT per 28.3 mpg/32 GP
Kendall Lewis (Graduated; Snellville, GA) - 8.5 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1 apg; 51% FG, 25% 3-PT, 72% FT per 26.1 mpg/31 GP

Preview:
It's no secret that mid-majors have seen their chances of earning an at-large bid go down with every passing year. The quest begins during the offseason, when coaches at this level have to find enough opponents to play that will get the committee's attention all while preparing their teams in offseason workouts and recruiting for future years. While this goal remains the same at the start of each season, being able to reach it is a challenge. In the summer of 2016, head coach Dan Muller prepared his team like he always does. His Illinois State Redbirds were coming off their fourth consecutive season with at least 18 wins in his tenures, and they continued their upward trajectory in conference by winning 12 games in the MVC, the most since 2007-08 under Tim Jankovich (who later did a solid job at SMU).

While Muller was still operating in an era where maintaining continuity wasn't thought of as an impossible proposition, ISU ranked 70th in experience that year and 135th in continuity (per KenPom). It was setting up to be another successful year, however not even Muller could have predicted how the season would end up unfolding. The Redbirds of Normal, IL had a season that was anything but normal. ISU won 28 games that year and went a near-perfect 17-1 in the Missouri Valley, the tenth best conference in the nation that year. The 28 games won was a program best, as was the 17 wins in conference which was the most the program had posted since the 1997-98 season under Kevin Stallings. That squad was the last one to reach the big dance.

Despite the near spotless record, IL State were denied a chance to dance after falling in the Arch Madness championship game to Wichita State, the last season the Shockers were in the Valley before moving to the AAC. Wichita State proved to be ISU's enemy that year, accounting for two of their seven total losses that season. Those two games were also the only instances all year that the Redbirds would lose by double digits to any team. Much like Schertz's Indiana State Sycamores this past year, Muller's team found themselves on the wrong side of the bubble due to a lack of top 50 wins (this was prior to the quadrant system/NET rankings), a metric that is obviously biased towards the high-majors. While ISU had already defeated Wichita State once, doing so one more time during the regular season could have been the difference. Of course had they done that in the MVC finals, they would have been in automatically anyways, but the MVC would have certainly been multi-bid as Wichita State was safely in.

Naturally, a very frustrated Muller took shots at the NCAA committee, calling them "stupid" which is probably the nicest way he could have put it. Ultimately, the Redbirds were held back by the strength of their OOC schedule, which ranked 173rd that year - the definition of average. I'm not sure that Muller himself could have predicted the year that ISU ended up having before the year, but of course the challenges with getting tougher teams on the docket cannot be forgotten either. The snub meant that much more to Muller given that ISU is his alma mater.

You may be wondering why I'm talking about a team from eight seasons ago. The answer is straightforward - there hasn't really been a reason to care about ISU since that historic year. It's not that they have been atrocious or anything, they've just been extraordinarily mediocre since 2017, much like GW. In Muller's final seasons as the head honcho of the program, the Redbirds found considerably less success and there was little momentum moving forward. He was ultimately let go in 2022, with the news of his firing being announced before the season even concluded. Muller stepped away soon after the announcement to avoid being a distraction to his team.

I guess the only other thing that should be mentioned is that ISU's AD was forced to resign back in 2023 after he used $23k from the school's athletic budget to pay for a one-day donor trip involving former CEO of Reditus Labs Aaron Rossi in order to secure a multi-million dollar donation. Unfortunately, Rossi was later charged with three counts of tax fraud and was indicted by the federal grand jury.

Interim head coach Brian Jones, who took over for Muller for the final seven games of the 2021-22 season, failed to impress, going just 2-5. As a result, ISU cleaned house and brought in Ryan Pedon, a long time assistant all over the midwest, including Miami (OH), Toledo, Illinois, Butler, and Ohio State. He's served under some successful coaches including Tod Kowalczyk, John Groce, and Chris Holtmann (shoutout what he's done at DePaul so far). With a combined 17 years of experience as an assistant coach, Pedon was definitely deserving of an opportunity to lead a program.

Last season, Pedon definitely made significant progress in his second year (despite a six game losing streak in early January), as ISU improved 110 spots in KenPom and finished just two games under .500 both overall and in the MVC. Under Pedon, IL State has returned to being more of a deliberate, half-court focused attack it was known for back in the days of Jankovich and Porter Moser. The Redbirds were able to take better care of the rock and move the ball effectively, something they were alarmingly poor at in year 1 despite the methodical pace. It was a good thing that they ranked 92nd nationally in free throw rate because they were inept from behind the line, ranking 348th nationally in three point percentage.

Defensively, the Redbirds benefitted from teams not shooting as well against them as they did in year 1 under Pedon, although given that they still allowed a fair number of attempts from outside that could be a bit more luck-based. ISU lacked a true rim protector last season, so perhaps teams launching more from the outside was a good thing. What the Redbirds did do well last season was preventing teams from getting second chance opportunities or getting to the FT line, something that has carried over into this year.

There's optimism that Illinois State can take another step forward this year. Like GW, they are counting on sophomore leaps from a number of their freshmen who were thrown into the fire in their first seasons of playing college basketball. Hopefully that will come with better shooting splits as well. Johnny Kinziger may not be the biggest guy on the court but he was the one guy on the team who showed that can light it up from behind the arc. Last season, Kinziger converted on a team-best 39% of his attempts from distance. While the Redbirds needed more threats to space the floor, it's hard to imagine just how bad the offense could have looked without him. This year, Kinziger has taken on more ball-handling duties as well.

Ty Pence and Chase Walker did not see quite as many minutes as Kinziger last season but should play bigger roles and compete for starts. Pence shot the ball terribly, but it's hard to gauge shooting splits when someone doesn't play much and isn't warmed up when coming into the game. So far this year Pence has shot the ball significantly better - if he can somehow keep up his current shooting pace, he has the chance of joining the exclusive 50/40/90 club (he is currently at 89% for this FTs), something that only 11 players in the history of CBB have achieved. Trey Murphy III of Virginia was the last to do so back in the 2020-21 season. Pence does more than just shoot though - he crashes the glass for rebounds and is a savvy passer as well.

Walker meanwhile is a strong finisher inside and posted impressive rebounding numbers in limited time. His rebounding will be essential given the departures of Myles Foster and Kendall Lewis, the driving forces behind ISU's defensive rebounding last year. Foster in particular ranked 90th nationally in rebounding and posted eight double-doubles, while Lewis had three of those himself. Walker has also taken a few threes this season after not attempting a single one last year. Having a stretch forward in the frontcourt could make ISU that much harder to guard.

Cameron Barnes redshirted at Ole Miss last year, but technically also has a year of college basketball under his belt. The Texan was a three-star recruit and while he may need a bit of time this year to get going, with time he has the physical attributes to be a force in the MVC.

Pedon has done an excellent job of balancing his sophomore core with some more experienced guys. Dalton Banks is the leader of that group. Banks is a major reason why ISU took a step forward in being able to move the ball in the halfcourt. He ranked in the top 10 of the Missouri Valley in assists, is a great rebounder for his height, and while ISU isn't looking to generate a ton of pressure on the defensive end Banks can use his active hands to swipe the ball away along the perimeter. He has all-conference level upside in his final year if he can be more consistent from deep.

Malachi Poindexter is no stranger to slower pace having started his career at UVA. He's more of a glue guy on the team, capable of doing a little bit of everything, He was one of the better shooters last year (low bar to cross, honestly), but struggled a bit from inside the arc. Regardless, expect Poindexter to play a role in the rotation. He and Kinziger had some big time scoring performances at the end of last season.

Jordan Davis also transferred in from the power conference ranks. He is the twin brother of Wizards former first-round pick Johnny Davis. Jordan also began his career at Wisconsin, before dropping down a level. Honestly his numbers are somewhat underwhelming when you remove his pedigree. He was horrendous as a shooter, although has shown a willingness to crash the glass this season. Brandon Lieb arrived from Illinois last year, but doesn't provide too much outside of being a tall presence at 7'1". He was inefficient finishing near the hoop and has dealt with injuries. Lieb has yet to play this year.

Three upperclassmen transfers will play big roles this season for the Redbirds. Boden Skunberg comes in from NDSU, and while he has been sidelined with a foot injury to start the year (preventing him from facing off against his former team a couple weeks back) he will provide ISU with additional scoring, shooting, rebounding, and playmaking. Skunberg has averaged roughly 15 ppg the last two years shooting nearly 37% from deep, 83% from the FT line, pulling down over 5 boards a contest, while throwing in a couple of assists for good measure. Ultimately, the biggest transition for him will be on the defensive end which was an optional exercise in the Summit. The physically demanding MVC will not be as forgiving.

Caden Boser will be moving up a level after competing at D2 Valdosta State last season. His team wasn't particularly good, but Boser will be a presence up front after he was second on the team in scoring, competed on the boards, and showed the ability to pass out of the post. Oh, and he shot 41% from deep. It seems like Pedon got the message to recruit shooting after what happened last season. Side note, VSU's mascot is "Blaze", like literally a matchstick man on fire. There needs to be more cool mascots like that in college sports.

Pedon also landed an intra-conference transfer, with Landon Wolf entering the fold from Northern Iowa. Wolf saw his minutes dip with the Panthers last season after a promising first season (post redshirt) when he averaged over 7 ppg from off the bench. He's another guy that can shoot, as he's a career 39% shooter from the land of plenty although doesn't do too much else. Shooting will likely continue to be his role at ISU given nearly 70% of his career field goal attempts are from 3.

ISU also welcomes in two freshmen. Jack Daugherty has seen more run than Cade Norris so far. I've talked a lot about the Redbirds greatly improving their shooting so far, but Daugherty has been the best of all the players mentioned so far. He leads the team with 16 makes on the year at a blazing 47% clip. All but four attempts have been from 3. Daugherty's efficiency has been ridiculous so far, as he's averaging nearly 9 ppg per 10 minutes of action. He hasn't shown too much outside of that, but if you're shooting that well you don't need to. Norris is the younger brother of Keaton Norris, who played at Wright State, and Braden Norris, who we've faced at Loyola Chicago. It wouldn't be unexpected to see him become the next Norris brother be pesky defensively while also doubling as a solid orchestrator of ISU's offense.

Finally, a few thoughts on the Louisiana game. I agree with the notion that ULL is not particularly good. I've watched them in previous seasons, and this has to be their least talented team in quite some time. The first six minutes or so of the game was an absolute disaster and deserving of an F in terms of game plan. Yes, many of the shots from deep were open, the game was still close, etc. but it was known that UL had not much size with Kitenge lost for the year. Despite that, CC was insistent on jacking up three after three. Fortunately, those shots started falling in the second half but GW should have been feasting in the paint every possession. Even if they can't finish, they know UL will probably foul them.

Also, not sure I personally agree with others on here that Autry should be starting/playing more minutes than Moss. It was great to see him have a big second half, and he may be the best shooter on the squad but he was out of position several times on the defensive end, leading to fouls (including fouling a three point shooter once) which led to CC pulling him immediately. When Moss fouls, it feels like he is trying to swipe the ball away and make a defensive play that doesn't always need to be made, but it feels more fixable. Also, I feel like Moss was brought in to replace the penetration lost from JB graduating. I think we can all agree that Trey (Moss) should absolutely not be taking seven threes a game, but I like what I've seen when he takes it to the hoop (Drumgoole has that ability to do that more as well). Jacoi and Autry simply don't put pressure on the rim consistently enough. When GW was struggling early on against KSU, he had a couple nice takes to the hoop as well. Moss just needs to do that more often and not settle for threes as much. For some reason, both he and Jacoi launch these super deep threes when opponents go underneath screens. The level of difficulty on those shots is a lot higher than it needs to be.

Speaking of Jacoi, he had a nice passing game but I have to mention one of his turnovers early in the game. Normally I hold off on talking about particular plays, but his bounce pass to Jun at the top of the key was one of the worst decisions I've ever seen made. Naturally, Louisiana took it the other way for a layup. In terms of team turnovers, 18 was a bit high, but generating steals is one of the few things UL does well. Having said that, too many passes were forced into traffic, whether in transition or the halfcourt. Jun and Rafael combined for 8 turnovers and 0 assists, although it's unclear how many of those were because of poorly thrown passes or their inability to hold onto the ball. Sean once again did some good things, but as others have mentioned his ability to move laterally defensively has been problematic. Both KSU and Louisiana torched him at the rim. As for his pairing with Rafael, the problem is that although GW's frontcourt is pretty good this year, it's not particularly deep and there's not really another alternative when CC wants to go bigger. Christian was a bit quiet on Saturday and weirdly did not take a single shot in 10 minutes.

Also I'd love to get the opponent three point field goal percentage in the last minute of games against GW so far this year. I know that the defensive intensity isn't there when the game is already in hand but it feels like teams cannot miss from distance against us in the last 60 seconds. On Saturday, Chancellor White made two in a row, making it a 9 point win instead of closer to 15. It would have been funny if the score was the exact same one as the Kansas State game but unfortunately that final three killed that. Oh well.

I would have preferred to have played UAB instead of Illinois State to prepare for conference play, but this will be a good test to see whether the guys can keep up their intensity along the perimeter. During this MTE, perimeter defense has looked better. Against an Illinois State team that is currently 32nd in the nation in three point percentage, that will be crucial. I think the Redbirds will be a good shooting team overall this year based on who they have on the roster, but it feels like they are due for a bad shooting night. In their opener, they struggled from 3 and lost to a rebuilding UT Martin squad. Since then, they haven't really missed. GW could use some good fortune on that front, but hopefully CC continues to lean into the advantage in the frontcourt until conference play rolls around.

Projected Score: GW 76, Illinois State 74. 58% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik also predicts a 58% chance at a win. ESPN forecasts 46% chance at a W.
 

Realize we are where are. But in a normal situation, worrying about playing Illinois State, however
valid it certainly is at the moment, should not be a concern for a decent A-10 team.
  Remember when we beat Illinois (without the State) on their court. Off the top of my head, by 2 points, something like 64-62, on a Roey Eyal steal. (Note: Actually 64-58, steals by Roey and Shawnta in the last 15 seconds.)
  And it seemed unremarkable at the time.
  Unfortunately, that was 26 years ago, though we had good success 8 years back.
Hope it doesn't turn into 26 years.

Fun fact, two of GW´s last four opponents have had players named Malachi come off the bench (and Ill St´s is a real Poindexter)

Their 270 pound center is definitely a problem.  He fouls a lot so we have to go right at him (he fouled Castro on the first turnover, but it wasn’t called - keep doing that). 

Also, that was an insanely good full court pass from Moss right before the timeout.

Last edited by Free Quebec (11/25/2024 3:21 pm)

creeksandzeeks wrote:

GW having to work hard for buckets, but it feels like they can score against the zone.
ISU using the pick and pop really, really well. GW leaving lots of guys alone on the perimeter. Rebounding well, and ISU isn't making the threes they have been coming into this game. 
FQ, you're right -- this one has all the makings of a tight game.

We don’t have a single two point field goal.  Feel like when we figure out how to get to the rim, we could go on a run.

Have the time out rules change and the "use it or lose it" time outs no longer exist? If not, why did niether team call theirs with under 30 secs to go? Might have helped GW set up something better than a brick from three with only one guy in the paint to get the board.

GW Alum Abroad wrote:

Have the time out rules change and the "use it or lose it" time outs no longer exist? If not, why did niether team call theirs with under 30 secs to go? Might have helped GW set up something better than a brick from three with only one guy in the paint to get the board.

Pedon used his. Caputo didn't seem to think it was necessary. I think he was wrong.