VMI Keydets
Date: Friday November 29th, 2024
Time: 2:00 PM ET
Venue: Charles E. Smith Center (Washington, DC)
TV: ESPN+
Ranks: 341st (KenPom), 362nd (Bart Torvik), 299th (Haslametrics), 327th (EvanMiya), 360th (Sports Illustrated)
2023-24 Record: 4-28, 1-17 (10th in SoCon)
2024-25 Projected Record: 11-20, 4-14 (10th in SoCon)

Head-to-Head: 44-16, and GW has won the last eight meetings by an average of 16.4 points. The two teams used to play all the time as SoCon rivals, but they've met just twice since 1975. The last meeting came back in 2014, when GW won by 20 in Foggy Bottom, 80-60. There was a clear contrast in styles, as the Keydets attempted 36 shots from behind the arc, while GW had just seven attempts from 3 all game. Under CC, this year's team may hit that total before the first media timeout!

The Buff and Blue benefitted from getting to the FT line more than twice as many times as VMI (30-14). Four players finished in double figures: Kethan Savage (18 points, 10 rebounds), Pato (16 points, 10 rebounds), KevLar (12 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists), and Yuta had 10 points from off the bench. Savage and Garino both had double doubles, and I could see Rafael/Jun replicating that on Friday afternoon.

Offensive Efficiency: 338th (KenPom), 362nd (Bart Torvik), 319th (Haslametrics), 292nd (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 322nd (KenPom), 350th (Bart Torvik), 266th (Haslametrics), 337th (EvanMiya)
Pace: 80th (KenPom), 80th (Bart Torvik), 13th (Haslametrics), 73rd (EvanMiya)

Strengths (2023-24 Season):
Defensive Rebounds Per Game: 27.2 RPG (37th)

Weaknesses (2023-24 Season):
Free Throw Percentage: 69.2% (283rd)
Steals Per Game: 5.6 SPG (285th)
Field Goal Percentage: 42.3% (291st)
Rebound Margin: -2.5 RPG (291st)
Scoring Offense: 68.9 PPG (292nd)
Blocks Per Game: 2.6 BPG (297th)
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 47.7% (299th)
Three Point Percentage Defense: 35.7% (303rd)
Three Point Percentage: 31.2% (308th)
Free Throw Attempts Per Game: 16.2 FTA (312th)
Field Goal Percentage Defense: 46.3% (317th)
Free Throws Made Per Game: 11.2 FTM (319th)
Assists Per Game: 10.5 APG (335th)
Scoring Margin: -13.8 PPG (344th)
Winning Percentage: 12.5% (345th)
Turnover Margin: -4.1 TO (346th)
Turnovers Per Game: 15.8 TO/G (347th)
Assist/Turnover Ratio: 0.66 AST/TO (348th)
Scoring Defense: 82.6 PPG (350th)

Projected Starting Lineup:
#1 G Rickey Bradley Jr. (Junior; Milwaukee, WI) - 2.4 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 1.6 apg; 28% FG, 27% 3-PT, 69% FT per 11.2 mpg/13 GP at Georgia State last season
#30 G Tan Yildizoglu (Sophomore; Istanbul, Turkey) - 2.4 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 1.4 apg; 34% FG, 18% 3-PT, 56% FT per 12.3 mpg/28 GP at Pacific last season
#44 F TJ Johnson (Sophomore; Belton, TX) - 3.8 ppg, 1.7 rpg; 39% FG, 35% 3-PT, 83% FT per 11.3 mpg/19 GP at Lipscomb last season
#11 F Augustinas Kiudulas (Sophomore; Vilnius, Lithuania) - 0.3 ppg, 2 rpg; 13% FG per 3.6 mpg/7 GP at Indiana State last season
#6 F Kaden Stuckey (Freshman; Mono, Canada)

Key Bench Players:
#4 G Linus Holmstrom (Freshman; Stockholm, Sweden)
#5 G AJ Clark (Sophomore; Suffolk, VA) - 4 ppg, 3 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.7 spg; 37% FG, 7% 3-PT, 68% FT per 22.4 mpg/21 GP at VMI last season
#32 F Robert Peters (Sophomore; West Allis, WI) - 1.8 ppg, 1.3 rpg; 44% FG, 21% 3-PT, 50% FT per 9.1 mpg/18 GP at VMI last season
#14 G Walker Andrews (RS Freshman; Fincastle, VA)
#0 F Cal Liston (Freshman; Marietta, GA)

Key Losses:
Brennan Watkins (Transferred to North Dakota State; Kearney, MO) - 15.1 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 3 apg; 41% FG, 37% 3-PT, 87% FT per 30.4 mpg/22 GP
Tyran Cook (Transferred to Indiana State; Milwaukee, WI) - 12.7 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.4 apg; 41% FG, 34% 3-PT, 68% FT per 28.5 mpg/32 GP
Koree Cotton (Transferred to Jacksonville State; Florida City, FL) - 12.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.4 apg; 40% FG, 34% 3-PT, 79% FT per 22.8 mpg/12 GP
Taeshaud Jackson (Transferred to Northern Colorado; Denver, CO) - 10.6 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 1.2 apg, 1.3 spg; 45% FG, 33% 3-PT, 63% FT per 29.6 mpg/31 GP
Stephen Olowoniyi (Transferred to Southern Indiana; Melbourne, Australia) - 7.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg; 55% FG, 14% 3-PT, 49% FT per 18.4 mpg/32 GP
DJ Nussbaum (Transferred to Eastern Kentucky; Houston, TX) - 6.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg; 56% FG, 88% FT per 23 mpg/31 GP
Devin Butler (Transferred to D2 Missouri Western; Ridgeland, SC) - 6.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg; 33% FG, 31% 3-PT, 83% FT per 24 mpg/32 GP

Preview:
Which school should earn the title of "toughest job in college basketball"? It depends on who you ask. Every conference has its top dogs and cellar dwellers, but I think the list of schools that's in the "toughest job" conversation has changed in the NIL/transfer portal era. Naturally a school from the MEAC and SWAC comes to mind first. Mississippi Valley State was the worst team in the country last year, and the good 'ol Delta Devils may find themselves at the absolute bottom of D1 again this year. Alcorn State, a team we faced last year, is not exactly in a basketball hot bed but Landon Bussie has done a great job there. The same logic can be applied to schools like Maryland Eastern Shore and Delaware State. South Carolina State I believe couldn't even fully fund all 13 scholarships for basketball sometime back.

I have specifically named schools in the HBCU conferences that are not only tight in budget but also tougher to recruit to when compared to some of their conference peers. However, the pride that comes with attending an HBCU - regardless of institution - is unmatched in the entire country. Additionally, all it takes is one coach to turn it around at one of these programs. Look no further than Grambling State. Once a punching bag in the 2010s, the Tigers have really elevated under Donte' Jackson (very underrated coach), even making the big dance last year.

Yes, you can say that about any struggling program in the country, but the difference is that these schools are not so far away from being competitive as all the teams in their respective conferences are at somewhat of a disadvantage in a similar way. For example, Dartmouth would probably qualify as a team that is in a tough location and has been one of the worst teams in the Ivy for a while, but the right coach could theoretically get them back into the middle of the league. Heck, you could probably make the same case for another poor opponent that GW faced recently in NJIT. The Highlanders at least have a number of metro areas nearby to pull recruits from. The conversation becomes a bit different when playing in a conference that's significantly stronger and certain members, specifically those that are military institutions, are at a disadvantage in relation to others in the same conference.

The Southern Conference has been a top 15 conference in America in five of the past six years (and six of the past eight). The Citadel and VMI, the two military institutions in the conference, have often found themselves towards the basement of the conference during that time. The Keydets actually managed two consecutive .500 conference seasons under Dan Earl in the midst of COVID, something that hadn't been done since they rejoined the SoCon back in 2014-15 from the Big South. That performance allowed Earl to jump to intra-conference rival Chattanooga, usually one of the top teams in the conference.

Earl probably did so at the right time once NIL became a factor. It was already difficult to convince players to come to VMI. The school is only able to take players with a certain profile from the HS level. It's even harder to get transfers from the portal to meet admission standards, and the Keydets don't have the NIL package to get them to stay at the school. I remember an interview with Jamion Christian sometime back when he said he was offered by VMI as a player and joked about not going there because of the lack of girls (or something similar to that). There have also been reports that even when compared to The Citadel, there are stricter requirements at VMI.

Constant roster turnover has made it difficult to formulate any sort of identity under Earl's successor Andrew Wilson. While VMI has had middling success for a while, at least during the Duggar Baucom era they were known for playing a frenetic up-and-down style. They finished top 10 in pace in nine of his ten years at the helm (including four seasons when they were the fastest team in the country), and during the Dan Earl years the Keydets had the greenest of lights to let it fly from deep, ranking in the top 25 in 3-PT attempt percentage in six of his seven years as head honcho. Wilson did crank the tempo up in a major way in his second year, as VMI was the second fastest team in the country, but otherwise the only thing they've done well consistently under the new coach has been not fouling on defense. That's not a bad thing but could suggest the defense is not aggressive at all or one that can generate turnovers.

The top seven Keydet scorers from last season opted to go elsewhere but it's very much a "been there, done that" for Wilson, who saw his top five guys the previous year transfer out. Going back to the "toughest job" conversation in this new college basketball era, unless VMI is able to suddenly find some NIL, it's hard to project a different outcome in the off-seasons to come. As bad as MVSU and some of the other schools mentioned above are, I can't think of another school that's experienced the kind of turnover VMI has the past couple years. I guess the glass half full view going into this year was that VMI wasn't any good last year so it's not like they're losing pieces that contributed to winning. In fact, last year's team somehow managed to actually do worse than the team that won seven total games and two SoCon contests in Wilson's first year. Having said that, the school could use some continuity.

Floor spacing could be an issue following the transfer of leading scorer Brennan Watkins, who led the team with 47 made triples at a 37% clip. Watkins along with second leading scorer Tyran Cook handled a good part of the playmaking duties on the team. The departure of Koree Cotton may not be the most devastating loss. Despite being a very good three level scorer, he coughed up the rock at an alarming rate - for every assist, he turned it over nearly four times a game. The biggest loss of the bunch may actually be Taeshaud Jackson, who opted to return to his home state of Colorado. Jackson averaged a double-double last year, ranking 44th nationally in the category with 11. He was also in the top 100 in a number of rebounding categories - total rebounds (24th), defensive rebounds (11th), offensive rebounds (97th), and rebounds per game (11th). Given VMI's lone strength above was defensive rebounding, Jackson's departure is absolutely massive. He was also one of VMI's most effective defenders on the other end.

The good news for VMI is that they are not completely starting from scratch. AJ Clark, Maurice Wright Jr., and Robert Peters all saw a bit of run last year.

Clark started five games last year and can do a little bit of everything - score, rebound, move the ball, and was also one of the better defenders on the team (he was 5th in the SoCon in steal rate last year). His shooting range is a bit limited though, as he went a brutal 2/27 from deep last year. Clark's numbers haven't changed too much from last year so far, but expect him to get some run off the pine. Wright, a Palmdale, CA native, actually had a GW offer at one point. Wilson will hope that he can take the next step as a long-range sniper given the production lost from the departures, but Wright will face stiff competition from the newcomers. Peters will help on the boards and add size when he takes the court. Jaren Morton also returns, but given that he only saw action in two non-D1 games last year I'll assume he's not a key guy in the rotation. He did shoot the ball well in those games though so maybe he should get a longer look.

VMI was actually a player in the portal this past offseason. I think Wilson came to terms with the fact that bringing in exclusively HS guys will probably mean his squads will be forever young, as the ones that ball out will likely bail. The first get could almost be considered a returner. Rickey Bradley Jr. was one of the aforementioned five guys who left VMI two seasons ago. In his freshman year, he averaged nearly 10 ppg and 5 boards while chipping in over 2 dimes per contest and shooting 39% from deep. Bradley really came on during SoCon play, finishing in double figures in 12 of 18 matches. His year away at Georgia State did not end up being a good one, but he should be more productive in his old stomping grounds. Wilson has also cranked up the tempo since he was last at VMI, meaning that Bradley may have additional upside in a more transition-based attack. While the Keydets are likely to continue to lose their top guys to the portal every year, I wonder whether they may be able to get guys to "boomerang" back to their program should they not get the playing time they are looking for at their new school. Since the sit-out rule no longer exists, VMI may be able to benefit on that front.

TJ Johnson (Lipscomb), Augustinas Kiudulas (Indiana State), and Tan Yildizoglu (Pacific) all arrive with previous D1 experience. Cyprian Hyde (Portland) bring true size at 6'11", but he redshirted last year and hasn't seen run so far.

Johnson is the best of the bunch, as he was a key bench guy for Lipscomb, a team that is always pretty solid. He is a great shooter and will be looking to let it fly from distance. This year, he has attempted nearly eight per game and made over three (43% clip).

Kiudulas also comes from a winning program (perhaps a direct trade with the Sycamores for Cook?), although he did not play much for Schertz. The Lithuanian forward is currently second on the team in scoring, should be a force on the glass, is a capable passer, and can even stretch the floor a bit. He'll need to stay out of foul trouble on defense in order to be productive, though.

Yildizoglu previously played for another terrible team on the other side of the country in Pacific. While he's unlikely to experience much more success at his new stop, he should be able to stuff the stat sheet. Most notably, he's taken over ball handling duties on the team (5.4 apg), and to his credit, he's done a good job on that front (better than a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio). That was an area where VMI really struggled last year.

Despite the new pieces, VMI is still super young. Bradley is one of the few upperclassmen on the roster (along with Cooper Sisco, who has unfortunately dealt with a ton of injuries the past couple years and has yet to play this season), meaning that Wilson is likely to roll with a few freshmen. Kaden Stuckey, a Canadian, has started every game this year and has shown the ability to finish efficiently inside. Linus Holmström, a native of Sweden, is a sharpshooter. Over 3/4 of his attempts have come from three, and he's made 37% of his attempts. Walker Andrews redshirted last year, but he could not be stopped as a scorer at the HS level. He is his school's all-time leading scorer and 3-PT leader. Cal Liston, an undersized forward, will crash the glass hard in the minutes he sees.

VMI does have some shooting on their roster, so I do worry about a potential letdown game following Thanksgiving (hope everyone had a great one!) and the fact that the game is during the day (2 PM ET tip). Can the team carry over their defensive performance from the Illinois State game to tomorrow? It seems like this is another game for Jun and Rafael to dominate. Jun should be able to get back to driving downhill, and hopefully the threes continue to fall at a respectable rate.

Projected Score: GW 84, VMI 67. 93% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik predicts a 97% chance at a W. ESPN forecasts a 95.9% chance for GW to come out on top.
 

Line is GW -19.  

Boston College is currently in a battle with KenPom #346 Dartmouth.  Feel like these post-Thanksgiving afternoon games are nothing but trouble.  I agree with FQ that being locked in on defense is the key for today.

A VERY impressive 14 assists on 17 made field goals in the first half.  7 of the 8 players had at least one assist.

Last edited by Long Suffering Fan (11/29/2024 2:51 pm)

Autry 12-15 from three these last three games. Finally coming around

Two-to-one assists to turnovers is a good thing. Getting out-rebounded and giving up 14 offensive boards is not a good thing.

Happy for the result but the defense we saw today ain’t going to hold up in the conference.

Last edited by Alum1 (11/29/2024 4:32 pm)

Nice to see some points off the bench too, in this game and lately. Don’t remember that much in previous years

Tremendous D, Jacoi in particular was lights out

DBJr as always man among boys

GW improves to 7-1