Lafayette Leopards
Date: Wednesday December 18th, 2024
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Charles E. Smith Center (Washington, DC)
TV: ESPN+
Ranks: 252nd (KenPom), 283rd (Bart Torvik), 269th (Haslametrics), 258th (EvanMiya), 322nd (Sports Illustrated)
2023-24 Record: 11-21, 10-8 (T-2nd in Patriot)
2024-25 Projected Record: 16-15, 10-8 (T-2nd in Patriot)

Head-to-Head: 1-2. These teams haven't faced each other too often. 45 years passed between the first and second meetings, and another 44 years went by before we faced the Leopards for a third time. The first matchup came back in 1925-26, when Lafayette won 24-22. They also came out on top in 1971, which was part of the Garden State Classic in Trenton. GW finally got on the board in 2015, notching an 85-76 win at the Smith Center.

In that matchup, GW pulled a reverse Caputo. They outscored Lafayette by 22 points, putting up a 50 spot on the Leopards before halftime. The script nearly reversed after halftime. I feel like every time I've recapped the last meeting of an OOC opponent, I say GW shot poorly from 3, and that was the case again for this game. The Buff and Blue went a dismal 2/17 from deep, with Pato accounting for both makes. Ultimately, GW held a significant advantage on the boards (50-32) and assists (13-9). Despite the final score, GW was in the driver's seat going into the final media timeout with an 18 point lead. Unfortunately, they did not make a field goal the rest of the way (the final eight points all came via FTs). The two teams took 14 free throws in the final one minute and two seconds of the game.

Four GW players finished in double figures. KevLar (24 points, 11 rebounds) and TyCav (15 points, 17 rebounds) both posted double doubles. Could Jun and Rafael follow suit tomorrow? Pato (17 points) and Paul Jorgensen (10 points off the bench) also contributed to the win. Matt Cimino and Anthony Swan actually played a combined 13 minutes. I can't think of many other instances that would have happened.

Offensive Efficiency: 283rd (KenPom), 318th (Bart Torvik), 273rd (Haslametrics), 315th (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 201st (KenPom), 205th (Bart Torvik), 230th (Haslametrics), 175th (EvanMiya)
Pace: 254th (KenPom), 231st (Bart Torvik), 239th (Haslametrics), 232nd (EvanMiya)

Strengths (2023-24 Season):
Scoring Defense: 67.3 PPG (53rd)
Field Goal Percentage Defense: 41.8% (56th)
Blocks Per Game: 4.3 BPG (57th)

Weaknesses (2023-24 Season):
Offensive Rebounds Per Game: 8.7 ORPG (284th)
Rebounds Per Game: 33.3 RPG (292nd)
Winning Percentage: 34.4% (295th)
Scoring Margin: -4.5 PPG (296th)
Three Point Percentage: 31.2% (309th)
Free Throw Percentage: 67.4% (311th)
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 47% (316th)
Rebound Margin: -3.8 RPG (316th)
Field Goal Percentage: 40.8% (329th)
Fastbreak Points: 5.6 PPG (335th)
Scoring Offense: 62.8 PPG (346th)
Free Throw Attempts Per Game: 13.7 FTA (348th)
Free Throws Made Per Game: 9.2 FTM (349th)

Projected Starting Lineup:
#10 G Mark Butler (Sophomore; Philadelphia, PA) - 7.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1 spg; 50% FG, 62% FT per 29.6 mpg/32 GP at Lafayette last season
#1 G Caleb Williams (Freshman; Jacksonville, FL)
#0 G Ryan Pettit (Junior; Westfield, NJ) - 5.1 ppg, 2 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1 spg; 39% FG, 32% 3-PT, 74% FT per 19 mpg/29 GP at Lafayette last season
#21 G/F Andrew Phillips (Sophomore; Chester Springs, PA) - 1.7 ppg; 37% FG, 33% 3-PT, 60% FT per 3.9 mpg/16 GP at Lafayette last season
#15 C Justin Vander Baan (Senior; Northbridge, MA) - 9.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.8 apg, 2.2 bpg; 41% FG, 20% 3-PT, 67% FT per 24.3 mpg/32 GP at Lafayette last season

Key Bench Players:
#3 G Devin Hines (Senior; West Palm Beach, FL) - 9.8 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 1.4 apg; 37% FG, 34% 3-PT, 67% FT per 27.6 mpg/30 GP at Lafayette last season
#13 C Misha Bednostin (Sophomore; Dillsburg, PA) - 1.7 ppg; 47% FG, 75% FT per 2.9 mpg/12 GP at Lafayette last season
#99 G Luka Savićević (Senior; Skopje, North Macedonia) - 3.3 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 1.2 apg; 30% FG, 29% 3-PT, 77% FT per 14.7 mpg/32 GP at Lafayette last season
#23 G/F Joshua Wyche (Sophomore; Philadelphia, PA) - 2.5 ppg, 2.7 rpg; 34% FG, 10% 3-PT, 63% FT per 11.6 mpg/31 GP at Lafayette last season
#5 G Alex Chaikin (Freshman; Williamsburg, VA)
#14 F Malik Rasul (Freshman; Tucson, AZ)
#22 F Chris Rubayo (Senior; Skillman, NJ) - 4.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg; 49% FG, 40% 3-PT, 84% FT per 11.7 mpg/32 GP at Lafayette last season
#9 G TJ Berger (Senior; Malvern, PA) - 7.7 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2 apg; 29% FG, 29% 3-PT, 57% FT per 29.4 mpg/33 GP at Lafayette in 2022-23 season

Key Losses:
Kyle Jenkins (Transferred to Fairfield; Higganum, CT) - 9.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.3 apg; 47% FG, 34% 3-PT, 60% FT per 29.3 mpg/32 GP
Eric Sondberg (Transferred to D2 Frostburg State; Davidsonville, MD) - 8.8 ppg, 3.5 rpg; 41% FG, 39% 3-PT, 79% FT per 23.3 mpg/32 GP

Preview:
Change is hard. I've mentioned a lot about the turnover on the player side with regards to the transfer portal and NIL, but the same applies to coaches too. There's simply not too many schools at this point that have the ability to keep coaches around for a long period of time. That's especially true at the mid-major level. If the coach is succeeding, they are likely to get poached. Those chances go up even more if the coach is doing well at a school without much success historically or in a location that is tough to recruit to. Regardless of level, a coach that is underperforming will be let go a lot quicker now. There's no concept of a "rebuild" in the transfer portal era.

There's a certain sense of comfort and relief when a familiar face is roaming the sideline for the school that you root for. Honestly, the perception of certain programs is elevated because of a highly successful, long-tenured coach. St. Mary's is an example that comes to mind. Fran O'Hanlon was that guy for Lafayette fans. He spent 27 seasons in Easton, PA and notched 361 wins in that time (including three regular season and conference tournament titles). He had some great teams in the late 90s, and while he never quite replicated that success on a consistent basis in the two decades after he was certainly a floor raiser. Let's be honest - Lafayette is probably not an above average job in the Patriot. Back in 2019, coaches ranked the job 7th out of 10 teams in the Patriot. The budget and facilities are not there even when compared to other schools in the league. Despite that, Lafayette very rarely ended up in the absolute cellar of the Patriot under the long tenured coach. You could make the case that the school could have made a coaching change several years before the announced retirement, but let's be honest - would they be able to get anybody better?

O'Hanlon decided to hang it up in 2022, marking the first coaching change Lafayette had since the 1994-95 season. You can't blame the Leopard faithful for fearing the worst, considering that 94-95 season may have been the worst in program history. Lafayette went just 2-25 and winless in the conference under John Leone. Mike Jordan (not that one) became the new signal caller. There were certainly hiccups early on in the new era - the Leopards limped to a 2-11 OOC record, but they were feisty (and also somehow beat La Salle by 25 freaking points at Tom Gola...come on guys).

Against more equal competition, the Leopards fared a lot better. With about two weeks left in the regular season, the Leopards were a respectable 7-9 in league play, which I'm sure any fan would take after a coaching change. However, seemingly out of nowhere Jordan was placed on administrative leave and eventually fired due to "gross misconduct and/or insubordination". Jordan then sued the college for both wrongful termination and racial discrimination. The lawsuit was eventually settled earlier this summer.

As they say in show business, the show must go on. Mike McGarvey, who served under Jordan that season was named the interim head coach. While Lafayette would drop the final two regular season games, they went on a run in the Patriot League tournament, knocking off both Lehigh and American before falling to top dog Colgate in the championship. That performance would be enough for McGarvey to land the full time gig. Personally, I think all schools should conduct an external search instead of lazily lifting the interim tag based off a small sample size, but then again this is Lafayette we are talking about (Ohio State and Texas could have both done a lot better in their searches in recent years though). I guess the other argument against McGarvey was that he was around for whatever Jordan was fired for. What that was is still not exactly clear, just like the number of licks it takes to get to the center of a Tootsie Pop.

McGarvey's first full season as the head guy looked fairly similar to the chaotic 2022-23 season. The Leopards went a dismal 1-12 OOC and did not notch a single win against D1 competition. In some ways you could say that was worse than Jordan. However, they once again were able to turn the page in Patriot play, going 10-8 (although they did fade late in the season, losing their final five games of the year). Things have looked better OOC this year, with four D1 wins so far including their most recent W against fellow opponent Mercyhurst by 4 on the road. Lafayette comes into the GW match with a bit of momentum, as they have won four of their last five games. The lone loss was to Binghamton in overtime. They have lost to a pair of A10 foes already in La Salle and URI by 21 and 14 respectively.

Since the Mikes have led the program, Lafayette has turned into a defense first squad. Last year's team was particularly adept when it came to contesting near the rim. The Leopards were top 40 in both 2P% defense as well as block percentage. Given that stat, I'm a bit surprised that they did not run teams off the three point line and rank higher in 3PA%. The frontcourt tandem of Justin Vander Baan and Chris Rubayo deserve a lot of credit for anchoring Lafayette's interior unit. Vander Baan came to Easton in 2022 after pretty much riding the bench at Boston College (appeared in 21 games across two seasons). He ranked top 25 nationally in both total blocks and blocks per game last season and is quite honestly a unicorn in the Patriot league that doesn't see true seven footers roaming around too often. Vander Baan missed the early part of the season due to a hand injury. Rubayo, who stands 6'10" himself, wasn't quite as prolific but still ranked top 300 in blocks per game. He made his season debut against Mercyhurst after missing nine games due to a knee injury. In general, Lafayette has very good size up front for a Patriot team. That might make things tougher for Rafael than usual.

Offensively, Lafayette did not see quite as much success. In fact, they were brutal on that side of the ball in 2023-24. The squad couldn't shoot from deep, couldn't score inside, and were absolutely inept when it came to drawing fouls and getting to the line. Lafayette posted the eighth worst free throw rate nationally. When they did get there, they bricked those chances. Second chance opportunities were few and far between. They also played slowly, meaning that production from transition opportunities was also limited. The Leopards had no players who averaged double figures. While there's something to be said for having a balanced team/multiple threats, the lack of a go-to scorer hurt Lafayette. Honestly, they haven't had anyone to fill that role since Justin Jaworski graduated - and that was back in 2021.

The nicest thing that I can say about last year's unit was that they did a great job of sharing the ball. That's been the one constant for the Leopards. Lafayette has ranked top 60 nationally in assistant percentage the last five years per KenPom, and in 2023 they were actually #1 in the country. Mark Butler did a terrific job doling out the ball while minimizing miscues as a freshman, ranking 27th nationally in assist to turnover ratio. His assist numbers may have looked better had his teammates been able to make shots. That was something that he also struggled with. Butler, who had a GW offer during the JC era, is on the shorter side (5'11") but I'm not sure I've ever seen a guard not make a single three over a whole season (he was 0/17 last year). Opponents were perfectly content with sagging off of him, meaning Lafayette was essentially playing 4 on 5 on that side of the floor.

Coming into the year, Lafayette's lack of shooting became that much more concerning when dedicated shooter Eric Sondberg (who ranked 220th nationally in total three pointers made at 39% last year) departed. Sondberg opted to return to his home state, which was also the case for Kyle Jenkins (who was third on the team in scoring). The pair combined to knock down 104 triples, which accounted for nearly 46% of the team's made threes.

Seniors Devin Hines and Luka Savićević along with walk-on Ryan Pettit seem best equipped to help replace some of the shooting. Hines led the team in scoring last year (at a whopping 9.8 ppg) and ranked second in made threes. He also rebounds well for his height. Hines closed last season strong, finishing in double figures in 10 of Lafayette's final 15 games. He sat out in their last game against Mercyhurst 10 days ago. If he's able to go, expect him to see plenty of run. Petit, on the other hand, really struggled down the stretch, shooting just 5/27 from behind the arc in the team's final seven games of the 2023-24 season. Defensively, he can be a pest though. Savićević began his career at Eastern Michigan. He can handle some of the ball handling duties when Butler needs a breather and is shooting a career best 38% from distance so far. I would also include TJ Berger in this shooting conversation, but he's never really been able to find his stroke (career 29%) since leaving Georgetown (which also included a stint at San Diego). Berger, a former GW recruit, will likely see spot minutes but isn't likely to be a game changer.

Joshua Wyche, Andrew Phillips, and Misha Bednostin round out the returners. Wyche is somewhat raw offensively but crashes the glass hard. He returned to action against Mercyhurst after missing four games due to a head injury. Fellow sophomore Phillips has seen more run in his sophomore campaign with his ability to stretch the floor a bit and hit the open 3. Bednostin is originally from Ukraine but attended HS in Pennsylvania. He is an effective finisher down low at 6'11", a rebound magnet, and can be a capable passer. Defending without fouling has been a challenge thus far for him. Bednostin has been sidelined the past few weeks due to an ankle injury, leaving his status up in the air for tomorrow.

Finally, expect McGarvey's quartet of freshmen to play sizable roles right away. Alex Chaikin is a player to watch for tomorrow's game. He is blazing hot from 3, making a ridiculous 59% of his attempts on over four attempts a game. He's also 93% from the FT line - the guy can flat out shoot it. Caleb Williams is not expected to quarterback the team, but he can really shoot the ball as well and stepped into the starting lineup for Hines against Mercyhurst in Lafayette's last game. Unfortunately, that left the Leopards rather vulnerable along the perimeter defensively as Williams stands four inches shorter than Hines and fellow starters Butler and Pettit do not bring positional size either. Folabomi Fayemi hails from Chicago and is more of a long term piece for McGarvey's bunch. Finally, Malik Rasul is an Arizona native who played at Westtown in HS. He is very versatile, as both a scorer (36% from deep on low volume) and defender. That prototype is largely missing on this roster - outside of possibly Wyche it feels like most players on Lafayette's roster are either guards or true big men.

Since this is the final D1 OOC contest, hopefully GW can show that they are able to get out to a faster start before conference play rolls around. Lafayette should prove to be a decent test for the frontcourt. Will CC use Jun a bit more creatively? How will Rafael hold up against guys his height? The Leopards have played 14 guys on the season, but only 8 have appeared in every game due to various injuries. They tend to play on the slower side, so speeding things up/making their bigs run may very well be a key tomorrow. It wouldn't hurt to get Vander Baan into foul trouble. This Lafayette team is improved when it comes to taking care of the ball, shooting the 3, and making FTs but they remain shaky inside the arc. Hopefully the improved perimeter defense can carry over to tomorrow.

Projected Score: GW 75, Lafayette 66. 79% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik predicts an 84% GW victory. ESPN gives the Revs an 81.9% chance at a W.
 

As incredible (and sad) as this may sound, if GW defeats Lafayette (Ken Pom of 254), it will be the second best win of the season (Illinois State sits at 167).   I don't mean to beat a dead horse, but I cannot believe that running up a gawdy record against a bunch of patsies (our SOC now sits at 360, 5th worst in the country) is helping us prepare for a conference schedule in which the lowest ranked team is Richmond at 208 (and with a game at Richmond, likely a loss for us).  We definitely seem to be moving in the right direction as opposed to last season, but if we do another belly flop in the conference, I hope the school seriously reconsiders its scheduling philosophy going forward  .  As for the game itself, I am hoping to see more PT from Nessah and Bevins, continued development from Jones and continued improvement from Moss and Drumgoole.    Would also like to see Jacoi snap out of what appears to be an extended shooting slump.    And as an added holiday gift, it would be nice to outrebound a team for a change.  My predicted outcome is the same as Army, ODU and other bottom dwellers we have played this season, namely we allow Lafayette to stay in the game far longer than they should before pulling away midway through the second half and win by a margin that is around the point spread (GW -10.5).  

Last edited by Long Suffering Fan (12/18/2024 11:22 am)

Long Suffering Fan wrote:

As incredible (and sad) as this may sound, if GW defeats Lafayette (Ken Pom of 254), it will be the second best win of the season (Illinois State sits at 167).   I don't mean to beat a dead horse, but I cannot believe that running up a gawdy record against a bunch of patsies (our SOC now sits at 360, 5th worst in the country) is helping us prepare for a conference schedule in which the lowest ranked team is Richmond at 208 (and with a game at Richmond, likely a loss for us).  We definitely seem to be moving in the right direction as opposed to last season, but if we do another belly flop in the conference, I hope the school seriously reconsiders its scheduling philosophy going forward. 

There was a possibility of a nice experiment with Loyola Chicago (whose Non-Con SOS is only 7 spots better than us), but unfortunately the injury bug has hit them hard. 

The reason I thought it would be a good experiment is because overall their KenPom SOS is equivalent to ours, but they were able to sprinkle in games against Princeton, South Florida, and San Francisco amongst the cupcakes. Does playing 1-2 extra games against better opponents make much of a difference in getting ready for conference play?
 

No comment on KenPom or scheduling or analytics.
As a fan of the game and GW hoops, am hoping to see some signs of growth after 11 games and 6 weeks of coaching and practice experience.
Looking for better rhythm and motion on offense where the bounce passes are catchable and the finishes in the paint are solid. Please share the ball and take good 3s. Also hoping that second chance opportunities for Lafayette are minimized by assertive block-outs.
Otherwise have a great game and enjoy the homecooking!
Go Revs

Lafayette College was named after General Lafayette, a Frenchmen who volunteered to serve in the Continental Army under George Washington. Let’s show them who’s still the boss tonight.

Offense looks horrible. No one is hitting anything, so many lazy turnovers, and too hesitant in the paint.

Good things happen with Nessah on the court.  Only 2 points and one rebound, but kept 2 other eebounds alive and is playing good defense and bringing energy

Jacoi Hutchinson = Omo Moses.

Not sure if the alley oop to Castro is there for us tonight