But first, your local weather

Good chance to get to 12-2 for GW, albeit a road game

H&R..71 wrote:

gwstudent2024 wrote:

Just recorded a new episode of GW Basketball Insiders. We discussed Jim Larranaga stepping down and previewed A10 play while answering some questions we got from listeners. Check it out and let us know what you think!

https://www.youtube.com/live/LvOPSJZ7UhQ?si=GSa0HkMi4sQVScI6

Enjoyed the episode. Good job guys.
Also enjoyed watching Florida Gulf Coast beat up on Richmond by 18 at Richmond yesterday.
Go Revs!!

eh we should want A10 teams to do as good as possible in non-conference 

I also enjoyed the podcast and will try to tune in to future episodes. I didn't get a chance to watch the FGCU-Richmond game but checked the box score this morning and was surprised by the final score. I think Richmond was favored by 2.5 points and led by 4 with 6 minutes left in the 1st half. Richmond also went 18-19 from the line, so the scoring margin could have been even greater had they shot their season average. I agree that it feels like we're catching Richmond at a good time and should come away with a win on the road. Richmond is currently last among A-10 teams in FG% (2nd to last in 3-pt FG%), last in rebounding, steals, assists, but is 1st in defensive rating. They're 2nd to last in offensive rating, where we're 3rd best, so it'll be interesting to see how our offense performs against their defense.

Richmond Spiders
Date: Tuesday December 31st, 2024
Time: 4:00 PM ET
Venue: Robins Center (Richmond, VA)
TV: ESPN+
Ranks: 249th (KenPom), 254th (Bart Torvik), 288th (Haslametrics), 247th (EvanMiya)
2023-24 Record: 23-10, 15-3 (T-1st in A10)
2024-25 Projected Record: 9-22, 4-14 (15th in A10)

Head-to-Head: 64-45, although GW has fared fairly poorly against the Spiders since 2017. In the past seven years, the Buff and Blue have gone just 2-12 against UR. GW dropped both contests last season. While the game at Smith was not particularly close (90-74 win for Richmond) the first matchup at Robins was competitive when GW was still healthy. We've faced Richmond more times than any other school, dating back to the days the two schools were in the SoCon. The whole "rival" conversation comes up from time to time, and I think Richmond probably makes the most sense historically (although the Spiders of course have a number of better rivals from their perspective). Current students would probably pick George Mason, but prior to GMU joining the A10 we had played the Patriots just 12 times total.

In last year's game at Richmond, GW actually got off to a strong start (shocking, I know). With 78 seconds left to go before the 15 minute intermission, the Revs were ahead 34-24. What transpired in the final minute just cannot happen. The Spiders knocked down two triples and Jacoi committed a foul on a missed three point attempt. Just like that, Richmond seized all the momentum and trailed by only one point after 20 minutes. That Richmond surge carried over to the second half, as UR went up by 14 with 6 minutes to go. A late GW surge cut the deficit to just four points, and Garrett missed a three that could have trimmed UR's lead further.

It's always difficult to win on the road, but it becomes much harder when the other team makes 12 threes at 52% clip. GW dominated the glass 46-35 behind Akingbola's 14 boards and our bench outscored theirs 15-3 but the team often played in isolation, finishing with just six assists. Garrett led GW with 17 points, JB had 15 on poor efficiency (18 shot attempts), Jun chipped in with 13 points/9 rebounds, Jacoi put up 13 points off the bench, and Max scored 11. Somehow Trey Autry played 14 minutes without attempting a single shot.

Offensive Efficiency: 230th (KenPom), 245th (Bart Torvik), 263rd (Haslametrics), 224th (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 237th (KenPom), 238th (Bart Torvik), 285th (Haslametrics), 258th (EvanMiya)
Pace: 226th (KenPom), 229th (Bart Torvik), 219th (Haslametrics), 252nd (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 169th
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 322nd
Rim & 3 Rate: 80% (264th)

Strengths (2024-25 Season):
Free Throws Made Per Game: 17.6 FTM (34th)
Turnovers Per Game: 10.4 TO/G (40th)
Free Throw Attempts Per Game: 23.2 FTA (51st)
Free Throw Percentage: 76.1% (55th)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game: 27.3 DRPG (70th)
Three Point Attempts Per Game: 26.3 3PA (75th)

Weaknesses (2024-25 Season):
Scoring Offense: 71.6 PPG (269th)
Winning Percentage: 38.5% (272nd)
Rebounds Per Game: 34.5 RPG (274th)
Fouls Per Game: 18.3 PF/G (283rd)
Steals Per Game: 5.9 SPG (283rd)
Bench Points Per Game: 18.3 PPG (285th)
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 48.8% (287th)
Scoring Margin: -3 PPG (289th)
Rebound Margin: -2 RPG (293rd)
Blocks Per Game: 2.3 BPG (301st)
Field Goal Percentage: 41.9% (309th)
Assists Per Game: 11.3 APG (326th)
Three Point Percentage: 29.2% (331st)
Fastbreak Points: 5.6 PPG (337th)
Turnovers Forced Per Game: 9.9 TO/G (337th)
Offensive Rebounds Per Game: 7.2 ORPG (348th)

Projected Starting Lineup:
#3 G DeLonnie Hunt (Senior; Upper Marlboro, MD) - 17.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.8 spg; 44% FG, 24% 3-PT, 83% FT per 35.5 mpg/13 GP
#1 G Mikkel Tyne (Sophomore; Toronto, Canada) - 9.4 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 1 apg, 1.2 spg; 39% FG, 27% 3-PT, 65% FT per 30.9 mpg/13 GP
#11 G Jason Roche (Senior; Berkeley, CA) - 6.2 ppg, 1.6 rpg; 43% FG, 42% 3-PT, 60% FT per 19.2 mpg/13 GP
#7 F Dusan Neskovic (Graduate Student; Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina) - 12.6 ppg, 3.9 rpg; 44% FG, 28% 3-PT, 81% FT per 21.9 mpg/13 GP
#9 F Jonathan Beagle (Junior; Hudson Falls, NY) - 9.9 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.7 apg; 56% FG, 40% 3-PT, 73% FT per 21.6 mpg/13 GP

Key Bench Players:
#33 F Apostolos Roumoglou (Junior; Xanthi, Greece) - 5.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg; 31% FG, 28% 3-PT, 29% FT per 25.5 mpg/13 GP
#8 G B. Artis White (Graduate Student; Canton, MI) - 2.5 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 1.7 apg; 19% FG, 17% 3-PT, 67% FT per 18.8 mpg/6 GP
#21 C Mike Walz (Junior; Berwyn, PA) - 5 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 2 apg; 53% FG, 38% 3-PT, 88% FT per 16.7 mpg/12 GP
#5 G Collin Tanner (Sophomore; Creedmoor, NC) - 2.5 ppg, 2 rpg; 32% FG, 36% 3-PT, 88% FT per 15.9 mpg/13 GP

Key Losses:
Jordan King (Graduated; Albany, NY) - 18 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.3 spg; 45% FG, 41% 3-PT, 82% FT per 35.3 mpg/33 GP
Neal Quinn (Graduated; Allendale, NJ) - 12.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 3.9 apg, 1.3 bpg; 53% FG, 36% 3-PT, 73% FT per 27.6 mpg/33 GP
Isaiah Bigelow (Graduated; Greensboro, NC) - 11.2 ppg, 6.5 rpg; 44% FG, 37% 3-PT, 81% FT per 26.4 mpg/33 GP
Dji Bailey (Transferred to LSU; Wilson, NC) - 10.2 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.7 spg; 59% FG, 32% 3-PT, 57% FT per 31.2 mpg/33 GP

Preview:
Chris Mooney has seen a thing or two in his time roaming the sidelines at Richmond. The Princeton graduate is closing in on two full decades as the head guy of the Spiders. His first season was back in 2005-06, which was the year that GW went undefeated in A10 play and finished with the best overall winning percentage (.900) in the country. There's only 12 other D1 coaches that enter their 20th season (or later) as coach of their current institution in 2024-25:

School                    Coach                    First Season
Oakland                  Greg Kampe            1984-85
Michigan State        Tom Izzo                  1995-96
Gonzaga                 Mark Few                 1999-00
Yale                         James Jones            1999-00
St. Mary's                Randy Bennett          2001-02
Florida State            Leonard Hamilton     2002-03
Baylor                      Scott Drew                2003-04
Kansas                    Bill Self                      2003-04
Mercyhurst              Gary Manchel            2003-04
Bellarmine               Scott Davenport        2005-06
Purdue                     Matt Painter              2005-06
Richmond               Chris Mooney         2005-06
Utah Tech                 Jon Judkins              2005-06

It will be interesting to see how many of these coaches will continue to hold on with the ever-changing NIL landscape or announce sudden "retirements". Three of the schools on this list - Mercyhurst, Bellarmine, and Utah Tech are relatively new to D1 so those coaches may have a somewhat longer leash during the transition. I think we can all agree that it's long overdue that players get some form of compensation, but this sport really needs contract agreements. One of the names on the list above, Leonard Hamilton, was recently sued by six former players over failed NIL payments. The "adapt or die" philosophy is easier said than done. We're already starting to see players end their season prematurely for financial reasons. Quitting on your team will become a more common occurrence. It's hard to feel totally bad for the head coaches as most are compensated pretty well, but it's no doubt a tough situation.

Many of these coaches have had their fair share of down seasons. Their younger teams would go through growing pains, but as they got more experienced they would generally find a lot more success. Mooney's squads generally followed this pattern, especially due to the learning curve that came with his Princeton offense and read-and-react scheme. UR's 2021-22 squad felt like the end of an era. It featured several super seniors who developed at Richmond, and of course that team would not only qualify for the NCAA tournament but win a game as well. The following season had some off the court challenges, as Mooney had to step away in February 2023 to undergo heart surgery but he came back last season with a bang, as UR finished 15-3 in conference.

That was the best finish the program has had in conference play under Mooney, and he deserves credit for adjusting his system to feature more isolation plays for the now graduated Jordan King, who was just fantastic in his lone year in the A10. King was among the best scorers in the league, but he was very efficient as well, knocking down 41% of his triples which was the second best mark in the league at his volume after Koby Brea of Dayton who was widely considered to be the best shooter in the country. Of course, running things through a big like Neal Quinn remained a focal point of the offense with his passing ability and Quinn even provided a bit of rim protection as well. Isaiah Bigelow quietly racked up a ton of boards (he actually led the team in rebounding) and could stretch the floor alongside Quinn, opening things up for the guards to operate inside. Dji Bailey was probably the most unheralded of the quartet, but he thrived as the quintessential know-your-role guy - scoring when his number was called but most importantly serving as the lockdown defender for the Spiders.

The transfer portal can greatly change a team's fortunes in a year for better or for worse. No team in the country has shown this perhaps more than Richmond, who is currently projected to finish last in the A10 after earning a share of the regular season title with Loyola Chicago (who had funnily enough finished last in the previous season). Now I'm not saying that means GW is going to go from dead last to first this season, but I feel like if I speak it into existence maybe we have a 0.1% chance of doing that.

To put it nicely, Mooney's latest squad is still working to mesh and play cohesively. They've struggled on both sides, but UR hasn't been this poor offensively since 2007 - a squad that won just 8 games overall. The Spiders have remained a fairly sound ball handling team as has always been the case under Mooney - they've been top 100 in turnover percentage in 17 straight years but the issue has been obvious - they cannot hit from deep. Richmond is shooting just a tad over 28% against D1 competition (336th) which is a problem when you are launching nonstop from 3. Nearly 48% of their attempts come from there which is 34th nationally. The free throw line has been a strength - UR is 45th in free throw rate and 21st in free throw percentage, but when they have not had those chances it has been rough. Of course, you can forget about entertaining the idea of second chance opportunities as Richmond has never even ranked top 275 in offensive rebounding percentage under Mooney.

Defensively, teams have been right at home operating in the half court or otherwise. This Spider squad turns no one over, allows too many looks from outside, and unlike previous squads UR has been unable to keep opponents off the FT line. That may be a problem against a team like GW where 24% of their points come from the charity stripe (20th nationally). Part of the reason teams have had little trouble getting off shots stem from the fact that this year's backcourt possesses little positional size. That's been a staple of many Mooney teams (particularly at the point guard position) which leads me to believe that he specifically recruits that prototype. King (6'0"), Jason Nelson (5'10"), Jacob Gilyard (5'9"), Isaiah Wilson (6'0"), Blake Francis (6'0"), Khwan Fore (6'0"), ShawnDre' Jones (6'0"), Kendall Anthony (5'8"), and Kevin Anderson (6'0") all fall under that category.

This year's backcourt continues the trend with 6'0" DeLonnie Hunt and 5'10" Mikkel Tyne occupying the primary guard spots. Hunt transferred to Richmond last year after beginning his career at Wagner, a team that has traditionally been defense-first. He uses his quickness defensively to swipe the ball away from opponents (top 125 nationally in steals per game). Offensively, Hunt is adept at creating for himself and others. He prefers to score going downhill and drawing contact, ranking an impressive sixth in the nation in free throws made and top 100 overall in points per game (17.5 ppg). In terms of distance shooting, he's been a bit all over the place in his career. I was surprised to find out he shot 39% from 3 last year, especially after he missed over a month due to a left wrist fracture. Like many other Spiders, he's struggling this year (just 24%) but perhaps he's due for some positive regression closer to his career 32% shooting.

Tyne cracked the Spider rotation in his first year of CBB but has not been any more efficient in his sophomore campaign. Unlike Hunt, the Canadian does not get to the line nearly enough to offset his poor shooting (27% from 3, 35% overall) and he isn't much of a facilitator. Additionally, he's prone to committing fouls. Tyne fouled out twice during OOC play and nearly did a third time a couple days ago against Florida Gulf Coast. I just don't think that he's deserving of over 30 minutes a game.

The fact that Jason Roche is starting this season (at least lately) highlights some of the limitations with this roster. Roche is a solid complementary player, but he has obvious shortcomings. Obviously the thing that sticks out is his shooting - he's a career 39% three point shooter. Back in 2021-22, he nailed a very impressive 110 threes at The Citadel which was ninth in the nation. However, he has never really developed other parts of his game (rebounding, defense, passing, etc.) That's not necessarily mandatory as a designated shooter, but those weaknesses are more pronounced as a starter rather than a microwave scorer from off the bench. As a seventh or eighth man like he was on last year's squad he's useful but expecting more than that might be unfair.

As mentioned above though, it's the center that is essential in Mooney's scheme. Mike Walz, Quinn's understudy last year, felt like the no-brainer candidate poised to take a leap this year. To an extent he has - he's doubled his output in scoring, rebounding, and passing (5 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 2 apg) but he's not the same presence defensively. Albany transfer Jonathan Beagle (the fact that he played for the Great Danes and his last name is also a dog breed is perfect) is a bit more assertive offensively (9.9 ppg), but he too lacks the interior defense necessary when Hunt or Tyne are beaten off the dribble. In general, the Walz-Beagle duo feels a bit redundant but it's good to have some depth at least.

Dartmouth transfer Dusan Neskovic rounds out the likely starters. Given just how bad the Mean Green have been for seemingly forever, it's hard not to point to him as a "good stats, bad team" guy, but he was fairly efficient offensively in the Ivy League. Neskovic has knocked down 40+ threes in each of the last two seasons at a near 39% clip and he can assist on the boards. However much like Walz and Beagle he's not a real factor defensively (in fact, he may be worse than both). It's worth mentioning that Neskovic is on a hot streak of late, posting double figures in five straight games. During that stretch, he's gone 30/32 from the FT line (94%).

Fellow transfers Apostolos Roumoglou (Connecticut) and B. Artis White (Western Michigan) figure to get significant run from off the bench tomorrow. Roumoglou was an afterthought in Storrs but how many players can say they were part of two championship teams? The Greece native was touted as a shooter but he's struggled to make shots consistently in his first year in a more extended role. He went 5/5 from distance against William & Mary but has otherwise been fairly quiet. Outside of some pretty good rebounding his offensive game isn't very diverse. Roumoglou can hold his own defensively - much like BA, coming from a strong program has certainly helped him. He is probably the best on the team at contesting shots.

Artis White is yet another undersized guard (5'10"). He missed the early part of the year due to an elbow injury which appears to have affected his shooting. Thus far, he's a frigid 4/21 (19%) from the field and has found himself in foul trouble frequently this year. He's a capable passer, but Mooney is surely hoping he can approach his career 36% shooting from behind the arc from his four years in Kalamazoo as he continues to get healthy.

North Carolina native Collin Tanner rounds out the primary rotation. He can knock down an open shot (36% on low volume) but has probably earned Mooney's trust thanks to his defense. Per EvanMiya, Tanner holds a +0.6 defensive box plus-minus, which is the top mark on the team. Lineups that feature him alongside Hunt and Walz have been particularly effective, as Richmond has a net efficiency of +24.8 in the 98 possessions that trio has shared the court together.

Walk-on Jack Graham and redshirt freshman Ryan Soulis may get spot minutes. Graham has shown flashes defensively, while Soulis has rebounded the ball well in limited time. Sadly, Michigan transfer George Washington III has not cracked the rotation. Amir Arrington has scored more points on the season than he has. I'm a bit surprised that GWIII hasn't seen meaningful action as Richmond has not been very good and I figured Mooney would have played a bit more with the lineups by now. He might just be that bad I guess.

Despite GW's poor recent record against Richmond, this is the kind of game that needs to be won if the Revs are going to finish in the middle of the conference. Unfortunately, Richmond's recent blowout loss at home to Florida Gulf Coast may not be a good thing as it may cause the Spiders to come out with more intensity. It remains to be seen whether GW will be ready to play at the beginning of the game or if they'll wait until halftime to wake up like they have all season.

Projected Score: GW 75, Richmond 71. 62% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik predicts a 55% GW victory. ESPN gives the Revs a 58.5% chance at a W.

Glad that conference play is finally here.  Agree that expectations are mixed.  Without predictions, ratings, metrics, ooc sched etc my first concern is 9 days since a D2 scrimmage.  What did CC do to prepare this team over that timeframe.  Did they watch FGC break open a tight game by dominating the small Richmond guards in the paint?  Did they see poor rebounding and slow bigs?  Terrible shooting from 3 and great free throw %?  Did CC improve our execution on offense over the 9 days? 
Hopefully GW is fired up to start conf play.  Castro, Hansen, and Jun need to control the boards.  Drum, Moss, Autry, Jones don't need to be on fire from 3 (wouldn't mind) but let them happen in rhythm and not be forced. 
Moony likes to control tempo and play half court. I think CC and his players like up tempo and getting out and running.  The only other angst is having this game come down to free throws.  
It's one game at a time and we have the talent to start conf play with a W. 
Go Revs!!  

Anticipation...13 games in, but this is the first one that means anything to me.  Let's go.

At the U12:
- Defense has looked pretty good so far. Richmond is taking a lot of 3s
- We've missed 3 shots at the rim, all of which should have gone in.
- Richmond is doing a good job not allowing any 2nd chance opportunities
- Almost 5 minutes without a FG as the offense seems to have stalled out, though most of our looks have been pretty decent.

0 FGs in the last 8:30 of the game. Hansen with back-to-back poor decisions leading to easy turnovers. Per usual, offense starts the game half asleep

What's with all the bad turnovers?