Massachusetts Minutemen
Date: Wednesday January 22nd, 2025
Time: 7:00 PM
Venue: Mullins Center (Amherst, MA)
TV: ESPN+
Ranks: 201st (KenPom), 203rd (Bart Torvik), 206th (Haslametrics), 166th (EvanMiya)
2023-24 Record: 20-11, 11-7 (T-4th in A10)
2024-25 Projected Record: 12-19, 7-11 (T-12th in A10)

Head-to-Head: 46-32. UMass has won three of the last four meetings. Before that, GW had won nine straight in the series. GW went into the first matchup at Mullins last year with some momentum, and played the Minutemen even through the first half. Unfortunately, UMass caught fire after the intermission and put up 50 on the Revs in the second period to pull away. The Minutemen shot just 30% from downtown (and attempted 11 FTs) but shot nearly 66% from inside the arc. They had no trouble moving the ball whatsoever, posting 22 assists for the game. GW did get nine threes to fall (and made 80% of their FTs) but struggled mightily to finish inside, shooting just 36% from the field overall. Garrett led the Buff and Blue with 16 points, Jun added 15 points/8 rebounds, and Max finished with a double-double (13 points, 11 rebounds).

In the return game at Smith, UMass topped the Revs 69-57. The Minutemen pounced on the home team early on and went into halftime with a commanding 40-21 lead. GW showed signs of life after halftime, but ultimately the second 20 minutes were inconsequential. The lack of resistance inside was apparent. UMass made 8 threes, and only attempted four free throws (and made one all game). Despite that, they shot nearly 52% from the field (not too dissimilar from the first meeting) and handed out 18 assists (that's right, UMass had 40 assists between the two meetings last year). GW did capitalize on some turnovers, but shot just 21% from 3 (only one made three in the first half) and 40% from the field overall. Jun led the way with 21 points and 7 rebounds off the bench and Jacoi added 14. Hutch had four of the six made threes in the game. I miss that version of him.

Offensive Efficiency: 218th (KenPom), 216th (Bart Torvik), 210th (Haslametrics), 183rd (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 182nd (KenPom), 198th (Bart Torvik), 210th (Haslametrics), 167th (EvanMiya)
Pace: 18th (KenPom), 19th (Bart Torvik), 38th (Haslametrics), 32nd (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 197th
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 206th
Rim & 3 Rate: 85% (133rd)

Strengths (2024-25 Season):
Blocks Per Game: 6.1 BPG (6th)
Free Throw Attempts Per Game: 25.1 FTA (14th)
Offensive Rebounds Per Game: 13.7 ORPG (24th)
Rebounds Per Game: 39.9 RPG (31st)
Free Throws Made Per Game: 16.8 FTM (42nd)
Field Goal Percentage Defense: 41.4% (79th)
Fastbreak Points: 12.6 PPG (83rd)
Steals Per Game: 7.9 SPG (91st)

Weaknesses (2024-25 Season):
Three Point Attempts Per Game: 20.5 3PA (275th)
Scoring Defense: 76.4 PPG (295th)
Free Throw Percentage: 66.9% (308th)
Field Goal Percentage: 42% (310th)
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 46.4% (332nd)
Fouls Per Game: 19.6 PF/G (334th)
Three Pointers Per Game: 5.7 3PM (341st)
Three Point Percentage: 27.7% (349th)

Projected Starting Lineup:
#0 G Jaylen Curry (Sophomore; Charlotte, NC) - 12.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 4.1 apg, 1.4 spg; 37% FG, 31% 3-PT, 68% FT per 28.9 mpg/19 GP
#7 G Rahsool Diggins (Senior; Philadelphia, PA)  - 16.1 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 3 apg, 1 spg; 36% FG, 32% 3-PT, 85% FT per 34 mpg/19 GP
#11 G Jayden Ndjigue (Sophomore; Ayer, MA) - 4.9 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.1 spg; 41% FG, 26% 3-PT, 62% FT per 23.2 mpg/19 GP
#5 F Daniel Rivera (Senior; San Juan, Puerto Rico) - 12.6 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.2 spg, 1.5 bpg; 45% FG, 22% 3-PT, 59% FT per 29.1 mpg/19 GP
#25 F/C Malek Abdelgowad (Senior; Cairo, Egypt)  - 5.7 ppg, 5.2 rpg; 49% FG, 27% 3-PT, 79% FT per 14.8 mpg/17 GP

Key Bench Players:
#1 F Daniel Hankins-Sanford (Junior; Charlotte, NC) - 7.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 1.1 spg; 49% FG, 17% 3-PT, 56% FT per 23.8 mpg/14 GP
#3 G Marqui Worthy (Sophomore; Anaheim, CA) - 6.2 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 2.1 apg; 43% FG, 17% 3-PT, 70% FT per 17.3 mpg/18 GP
#4 F/C Shahid Muhammad (Junior; Queens, NY) - 4.1 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 2.1 bpg; 69% FG, 71% FT per 14.4 mpg/18 GP
#2 G Nate Guerengomba (Freshman; Washington, DC) - 3.8 ppg, 1.4 rpg; 31% FG, 21% 3-PT, 92% FT per 12.1 mpg/17 GP
#23 F Akil Watson (Sophomore; Middletown, NY) - 3.8 ppg, 2 rpg; 43% FG, 24% 3-PT, 55% FT per 11.4 mpg/18 GP

Key Losses:
Josh Cohen (Transferred to USC; Lincroft, NJ) - 15.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.7 apg; 54% FG, 34% 3-PT, 70% FT per 28.9 mpg/31 GP
Matt Cross (Transferred to SMU; Beverly, MA) - 15.3 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 3 apg, 1.5 spg; 54% FG, 33% 3-PT, 80% FT per 30.1 mpg/28 GP
Keon Thompson (Transferred to Stephen F. Austin; Merrillville, IN) - 9.3 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3 apg, 1.1 spg; 45% FG, 23% 3-PT, 72% FT per 27.8 mpg/30 GP

Preview:
The end of an era. The 2024-25 season will be the final season in the A10 for the UMass Minutemen, one of just two members (GW of course is the other) to be part of the conference since its inception. Duquesne was also an original member but had left for a season in the 90s. Amherst is going all in on football - this unfortunately looks like another Temple situation for basketball. The Owls have been competitive in the American, but it's a far cry from their days as one of the top programs in the country. While the Big 5 Classic still ensures that they face La Salle and St. Joe's at least occasionally, the conference schedule that has them going to Alabama, Kansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas (among others) is simply not appealing to many recruits for basketball. If this year is any indication, the AAC seems to be trending down as well as a conference for MBB.

UMass likely finds themselves in a similar position entering the MAC. I'm not the biggest college football guy so I can't really assess how good the move is on that side outside of the fact that they aren't going to be an independent anymore, but there's also rumors that some of the better teams on the gridiron like Northern Illinois and Toledo are getting looks from other conferences so it may not even be a decent mid-level conference. From a basketball standpoint, it's no doubt a step down. Going to various rust belt towns in the midst of winter does not sound particularly appealing, but maybe some players will feel differently. The MAC is currently ranked 22nd out of 31 conferences (per KenPom). The A10 is 8th. There's currently three teams that are 300th or worse nationally. I'm not really seeing a great travel partner for them either...I guess it's Buffalo?

It wouldn't be entirely surprising to see their roster get blown up after the season as players on the team look to compete in a more basketball-focused conference/program. That may even include head honcho Frank Martin. I know his wife is an alum of the school, but he is a Miami native and who knows if he wants to put up with the cold winters when the school has been made it clear that they aren't prioritizing basketball. In general, it wouldn't be entirely surprising if this is GW's last trip to Amherst for a long time. CC and Martin are friends, but I don't see a home-and-home in the future as of now.

After a tough first season that saw the Minutemen finish 13th in the A10, Martin seemed to push the right buttons in year #2. He maintained the same uptempo style of play from the last couple years under Matt McCall, but notably the offense improved considerably. Crashing the offensive glass has always been an important feature, as has attacking the basket going downhill and drawing contact. Martin's first two units at Amherst were top 20 nationally in offensive rebound percentage, and even this team sits just outside the top 100 on that front. Last year's team was also top 100 in free throw rate. What changed was that the team last season notably finished at a high clip inside the arc (52.6% - 85th nationally) and took much better care of the ball. For a team that doesn't place a premium on shooting (304th last year), that was massive.

Unfortunately, that interior dominance was largely due to the frontcourt duo of Josh Cohen and Matt Cross. Neither is still with the program. Cohen was 55th nationally in field goal percentage (2nd in the A10 after Jun) and 32nd in free throw attempts. Cross meanwhile was just behind, ranking 60th in FG%. He was also 74th in rebounds per game. In just two short years, Cohen has gone from the NEC (St. Francis PA) to the Big 10 (USC - it's still crazy to say that the Trojans are in that conference now). Cross meanwhile opted to leave his home state again for a third ACC school in SMU (again strange to say that). This year's UMass team has certainly felt their absence on that side of the ball.

With Frank, you always know that the team will have a relatively high floor on defense - even his first team had that. The Minutemen contest everything and generate a fair bit of pressure on the ball. Their frontcourt especially makes things tough at the rim. This year's team ranks tenth nationally in block percentage, so expect a tough go of it when it comes to finishing inside. Once again, we will have to hope that the threes start to fall again. If there is one thing that works out in GW's favor, it's that UMass tends to foul a lot. It's always tough to get the calls you want as the road team, but the Revs should be able to generate some points from the charity stripe. Hopefully those attempts are made at a good percentage.

UMass did challenge themselves OOC this season but did not fare as well as last year that featured a win over West Virginia (a weak Mountaineer team in 2023-24, but a good win nonetheless). Funnily enough, this season they did lose to Temple, but have also lost to Hofstra, UMass Lowell, and Central Connecticut. None of those teams is absolutely awful this year, but are games that should be won. Like GW, in conference they have defeated Dayton at home and fallen to Richmond and George Mason. They have won their last two games, a triple overtime thriller against Fordham and a 22 point drubbing at home against La Salle.

The starting five for the Minutemen has remained relatively consistent since conference play started. Former UConn guard Rahsool Diggins and rising sophomore Jaylen Curry spearhead the backcourt.

Diggins has taken somewhat of a step back in distance shooting after a career year in 2023-24 when he knocked down a career best 37% from downtown. That hasn't stopped him from launching from there, as he leads the A10 in three point attempts and is 11th nationally. Diggins has plenty of experience and is a good on-ball defender + passer, but I feel that his usage is a bit too high on offense. He is shooting under 40% from the field, which is partly a product of taking nearly 15 shots a game. That ranks 26th nationally, and 2nd in the A10. He's attempted a combined 49 shots in their last two games, which included the triple overtime contest against Fordham that saw him put up a program-best 46 points. Diggins has finished in double figures in eight straight games, and has made at least two triples in his last seven (along with 36 of his last 42 free throws - 95th nationally in FT percentage).

Curry, a former three-star recruit per 247Sports, hasn't been too much more efficient offensively but has shined as a passer. He is currently 27th in the country in assist/turnover ratio, which is second in the A10 after Rozier of Duquesne. While he will take a few threes a game, expect him to launch from the midrange quite frequently. I watched part of the La Salle game and he did not hesitate whatsoever to let it go from 15 feet. When he gets going, it becomes tough to slow him down. He has alternated big performances with small ones so far in conference play. If that pattern keeps up, it's good news for GW as Curry is coming off a 22 point performance against La Salle.

Fellow sophomore and Bay State native Jayden Ndjigue is the low-usage guy of the starters. Ndjigue has also seen his numbers drop from his freshman year, when he started all 31 games. His specialty is crashing the glass and playing good on-ball defense. Sometimes it's about knowing your role and not trying to do too much. He's finished in double figures just three times all year. Against George Mason, he didn't even attempt a shot in 24 minutes. He really showed what he is capable of against La Salle, when he had 9 points, 13 rebounds, 3 assists, and 5 blocks. Which GW guard will he reject at the rim? Only half joking.

Up front, Bryant transfer Daniel Rivera and Murray State transfer Malek Abdelgowad will occupy the frontcourt spots.

Rivera, who began his career at SLU, has the ability to stuff the stat sheet in a way that few in the A10 can. He is tied with Curry for second in scoring (12.6 ppg), leads the team in rebounding (7.7 rpg - 78th nationally), is fourth in assists, second in steals, and second in blocks (69th nationally). Rivera's range is limited (just 52% from the line, and he won't take many threes) but he is pretty impactful everywhere else. Offensively, his intention is clear: get to the basket and draw contact. Rivera is 58th nationally in FT attempts. It will also be important to box him out to prevent second chance opportunities - he is a skilled offensive rebounder.

Abdelgowad meanwhile is the 6'10" man in the middle. He wasn't a starter at Murray State but played a similar role to the one he has now at UMass. Where he has improved most is as a rebounder, and the Egyptian has a decent touch from the FT line for a big. UMass is undefeated when he scores in double figures, although that has only happened four times all season, partly due to inefficiencies around the hoop.

South Carolina transfer Daniel Hankins-Sanford, sophomore Marqui Worthy, and former JUCO/Seton Hall transfer Shahid Muhammad all figure to see decent run from off the bench.

Hankins-Sanford (who originally committed to the Gamecocks when Martin was still coach) is a good athlete, defender, and rebounder - a running theme of many players on the team. He doesn't take many threes and is just 58% from the FT line which indicates a reliance to work inside the paint. Hankins-Sanford is prone to fouling out of games, as he has done so already three times in conference play.

Worthy, a California native who held a GW offer during the JC era, has seen a slightly expanded role from off the bench in year #2 with the program. He is aware of his poor three point shooting and doesn't take a ton of attempts from deep. Additionally, given his playing time he appears to be a below average rebounder but he does have some playmaking chops. Prior to the La Salle game, he had three consecutive double figure scoring performances so perhaps a breakout is imminent.

Muhammad is effectively Abdelgowad's backup. He is the best shot blocker on the team and ranks #1 in the A10 in blocks (20th nationally). The Queens native has also made the most of his shot attempts, shooting nearly 70% from the field (although he's taken just six shots in conference play thus far). When he is paired with Rivera down low, you can pretty much forget about trying to finish inside. Muhammad did not play against La Salle, but it is unclear whether that was for health reasons or not.

Arizona State transfer Akil Watson and true freshman Nate Guerengomba may get a chance to see some action on Wednesday as well. Watson is an opportunistic scorer and rebounder, but seeing his FT percentage fall from 92% to 55% is confusing (not a ton of attempts, but still). Overall it seems unlikely that he is a swing factor in tomorrow's game. Guerengomba hails from DC but attended South Kent School in Connecticut and opted to remain in New England for college. He was rated very highly at one point coming out of HS but his recruiting took a hit towards his senior year. Guerengomba has had the typical inefficiencies that a freshman normally has, but you can see potential as a shotmaker and his 92% FT shooting on the year is an indicator of that.

Finally, sophomore Tarique Foster and freshmen Amadou Doumbia and Luka Damjanac are candidates for spot minutes. Foster can finish a basket down low, but don't ask him to shoot a free throw. He's 4/14 from the line in his collegiate career. Doumbia provides more frontcourt depth and rebounding up front. Damjanac, a native of Austria, falls in the same boat. Barring a blowout, I'd be surprised if this trio played much, if at all.

Coming off two straight losses it will be interesting to see how GW comes out in another road game. UMass may be a pillow fight contender in the A10, but they are not going to lay down as long as Martin is coach. Perimeter defense is not nearly as critical in this game as other A10 contests, but the team will want to keep a watchful eye on Diggins, who accounts for over 40% of the team's total attempts from 3 and not give Curry the midrange shots he's looking for. Defending penetration has been a challenge at times for GW and it is important that Castro/Hansen don't find themselves in foul trouble against another physical frontcourt. Unlike last year, I think GW's frontcourt this year is better than UMass, but the backcourt is going to have to step up and come close to the production from Diggins/Curry to pull out a win.

Perhaps the biggest key is controlling tempo. I thought this might be an issue in the Rhody game, but GW managed to play with the Rams tempo-wise on the road. UMass plays the fastest tempo in the league. At times, they can be lazy to get back on defense and La Salle capitalized on that a few times during their second half run. It's another question whether GW can actually execute properly in transition though. The Revs want to play fast, but perhaps not with their head on fire like the Minutemen.

Projected Score: GW 76, UMass 75. 55% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik predicts a 52% GW victory. ESPN gives the Revs a 72% chance at a W (seems weirdly a lot more optimistic).