Saint Louis Billikens
Date: Saturday January 25th, 2025
Time: 2:00 PM ET
Venue: Charles E. Smith Center (Washington, DC)
TV: ESPN+
Ranks: 109th (KenPom), 117th (Bart Torvik), 113th (Haslametrics), 100th (EvanMiya)
2023-24 Record: 13-20, 5-13 (T-13th in A10)
2024-25 Projected Record: 18-13, 11-7 (T-3rd in A10)

Head-to-Head: 9-14, although SLU has won the past seven meetings (which I have to figure is the longest losing streak for GW against any A10 opponent currently after knocking off VCU last year). Last year's meeting at Chaifetz effectively served as the 14th place game in the league. The Billikens ultimately edged GW 96-61. Neither team even pretended to play any defense in the game, with the O/U of 162.5 easily eclipsed. Both teams shot over 50% from the field, with SLU holding a slight edge in three point shooting (50% to 38%) and FTs (82% to 78% - they also made nine more than GW). The home team also finished with 17 assists. For GW, JB led all scorers with 34 points (7 made threes, along with 5 rebounds and 6 assists), Max had 19 points/5 rebounds off the bench, and Jacoi finished with 18 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists. I'm once again hoping for that Hutch to resurface at some point. Three Revs fouled out (Smith, Akingbola, and Benny) which certainly didn't help the cause.

In the last game at Smith, GW faced a SLU team that was without Yuri Collins. The Buff and Blue took a three point lead into the locker room but were crushed in the "third quarter" of the game, falling behind by 17 with 10.5 minutes left to go in the game. At that point, the Billikens had outscored the Revs 22-2. GW had gone over nine minutes without a point in the second half until Max made a layup. Somehow, MBB managed to bridge the gap, as a Hunter Dean three point play cut the deficit to 2 with just under 3 minutes to go. Ultimately, GW could not get over the hump as SLU dominated the shooting splits (53% from the field compared to 42% for GW, 44% from 3 versus 27% for GW). The Revs did own a slight edge in FT shooting (92% to 70%). Ricky had a tough go of things, fouling out after failing to score in 36 minutes (although he did pull down 9 boards). Max led the way with 24 points/5 rebounds, BA had 19 points/7 rebounds/5 assists (although also 6 turnovers), and JB had 14 points/6 assists on 23 shot attempts.

Offensive Efficiency: 124th (KenPom), 126th (Bart Torvik), 140th (Haslametrics), 97th (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 137th (KenPom), 146th (Bart Torvik), 101st (Haslametrics), 126th (EvanMiya)
Pace: 181st (KenPom), 193rd (Bart Torvik), 173rd (Haslametrics), 180th (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 96th
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 120th
Rim & 3 Rate: 93% (9th)

Strengths (2024-25 Season):
Defensive Rebounds Per Game: 28.1 DRPG (22nd)
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 56.3% (23rd)
Fouls Per Game: 14.9 PF/G (41st)
Three Point Attempts Per Game: 27.6 3PA (43rd)
Three Pointers Per Game: 9.5 3PM (45th)
Field Goal Percentage: 47.8% (50th)
Three Point Percentage Defense: 30.6% (59th)
Field Goal Percentage Defense: 41.3% (74th)
Assists Per Game: 15.4 APG (92nd)

Weaknesses (2024-25 Season):
Turnover Margin: -1.6 TO/G (282nd)
Turnovers Forced Per Game: 10.1 TO/G (290th)
Free Throw Percentage: 66.8% (313th)
Offensive Rebounds Per Game: 8 ORPG (332nd)
Bench Points Per Game: 9.3 PPG (355th)

Projected Starting Lineup:
#1 G Isaiah Swope (Senior; Newburgh, IN) - 17.1 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 5.1 apg, 1.1 spg; 42% FG, 34% 3-PT, 74% FT per 36.3 mpg/18 GP
#8 G Kobe Johnson (Senior; Canton, OH) - 4.6 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.8 apg; 50% FG, 31% 3-PT, 67% FT per 27.3 mpg/16 GP
#24 G Gibson Jimerson (RS Senior; Richmond, VA) - 17.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg; 44% FG, 38% 3-PT, 85% FT per 37.6 mpg/19 GP
#6 F Kalu Anya (Junior; Worcester, MA) - 8 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.4 spg; 60% FG, 18% 3-PT, 34% FT per 29.3 mpg/19 GP
#21 C Robbie Avila (Junior; Oak Forest, IL) - 18.4 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 4.3 apg, 1.1 spg; 52% FG, 38% 3-PT, 74% FT per 32.6 mpg/16 GP

Key Bench Players:
#0 G Kellen Thames (RS Sophomore; St. Louis, MO) - 6.6 ppg, 3.6 rpg; 53% FG, 32% 3-PT, 65% FT per 17.1 mpg/16 GP
#4 G Amari McCottry (Freshman; Milwaukee, WI) - 3.3 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1 apg, 1.1 spg; 46% FG, 36% 3-PT, 45% FT per 13.3 mpg/16 GP
#33 F Dylan Warlick (Freshman; Edmond, OK) - 2.3 ppg, 1.2 rpg; 50% FG, 33% 3-PT, 80% FT per 9.1 mpg/10 GP
#35 F Max Pikaar (Freshman; Leiden, Netherlands) - 1 ppg, 1.5 rpg; 36% FG, 33% FT per 7.7 mpg/11 GP
#14 F Kilian Brockhoff (Sophomore; Cuxhaven, Germany) - 1.6 ppg; 44% FG, 23% 3-PT, 83% FT per 4.9 mpg/15 GP

Key Losses:
Sincere Parker (Transferred to McNeese; Rockford, IL) - 15.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg; 49% FG, 43% 3-PT, 81% FT per 20.7 mpg/16 GP
Terrence Hargrove Jr. (Graduated; East St. Louis, IL) - 13.1 ppg, 5.5 rpg; 52% FG, 41% 3-PT, 79% FT per 30.2 mpg/33 GP
Bradley Ezewiro (Transferred to UAB; Torrance, CA) - 12 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.1 apg; 53% FG, 71% FT per 22.2 mpg/22 GP
Tim Dalger (Left Team; Fort Lauderdale, FL) - 9.7 ppg, 4.1 rpg; 41% FG, 27% 3-PT, 65% FT per 23.8 mpg/18 GP
Larry Hughes II (Left Team; St. Louis, MO) - 7.4 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.2 spg; 35% FG, 36% 3-PT, 77% FT per 23.3 mpg/31 GP
Michael Meadows (Graduated; Hollywood, CA) - 5.7 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 3.2 apg; 42% FG, 28% 3-PT, 74% FT per 24.9 mpg/17 GP

Preview:
This past offseason saw the Saint Louis program change head coaches for the first time in eight years. Travis Ford, who was generally a high-floor, low-ceiling coach, bottomed out last season. During his time, he took SLU to the NCAA tournament once and NIT twice, but you could argue he underperformed generally given the talent he was able to amass at The Lou. Even the 2018-19 squad had to win four consecutive games just to punch their tickets to the big dance. Last year, SLU had already dropped three games by the end of November, but it wasn't to terrible teams (Vermont, Wichita State, Utah State). The wheels fell off a little bit on a trip to Carbondale, where SLU fell to SIU by an astounding 39 points. The Billikens would see their season end to the Duquesne Dukes, a team of destiny after notching a first day win against URI, a team they beat twice (ouch).

Ultimately, there was just too much dysfunction to overlook. In mid-November, leading scorer Sincere Parker broke a bone in his right foot, sidelining him until the second week of January. Around that time, Travis Ford's son created a burner to vouch for his dad, which feels like something that would only happen in the Atlantic 10. A couple weeks later, Tulsa transfer Tim Dalger stepped away from the team for a personal family member and never returned. At the end of a trying month, graduate student Michael Meadows had his season ended by a back injury.

The lack of consistency hurt SLU a great deal on the defensive end. Their D had holes larger than Swiss cheese and they finished 342nd on that side of the ball which was worse than even CC's first year. Saint Louis was not the least bit disruptive, unable to turn foes over and keeping them off the FT line. You just look at the numbers across the board and the opposition could pretty much get any shot they wanted - they shot nearly 54% from 2 and 37% from downtown (and Ford's bunch didn't attempt to run teams off the line either).

Ford's team was mostly kept afloat by a relatively efficient offense. Towards the end of his tenure, he did embrace a more guard-based, uptempo system that shot the ball a lot better all around (although three point shooting was never really an emphasis of his offense). That notably included the FT line, a seismic shift from the teams with French and Goodwin that were truly brutal at the charity stripe. SLU was bottom 50 in that category in three of Ford's first four years at the helm. Surprisingly, offensive rebounding took a major step back in Ford's final season.

Credit Saint Louis for knowing what they wanted when it came to finding a new head coach. Two days after the Indiana State Sycamores finished their season with a loss in the NIT Championship to Seton Hall (Holloway can coach, but needs NIL support in the worst way) the Billikens announced Josh Schertz as their next coach. Schertz was a hot name on the carousel after guiding the Sycamores to their best ever finish in the KenPom era (38th). The fact that ISU failed to make the NCAA tournament is everything that is wrong with who is getting the at-large bids these days. Watching UVA struggle to put up 40 points in an opening round game while the Sycs were competing in the NIT was honestly a crime. The ACC isn't even a great conference anymore. Schertz reportedly turned down the Louisville job, but it's unclear whether that was because he thought Dusty May was going to take the job. The funny thing is that May leaving FAU could have resulted in a homecoming for Schertz, who attended the Boca Raton school.

Schertz is a former D2 head coach who absolutely thrived at that level. At Lincoln Memorial, he won an eye popping 83% of his games, qualifying for the NCAA tournament nine times in 13 years. After a tough first year in Terre Haute in his transition to D1, it didn't take long before he was winning 20+ games. More ADs need to take notice of these D2 guys. If you're a proven winner, not having coached at D1 shouldn't be a limiting factor. Look at what Ben McCollum is doing at Drake this year. I understand the fear that ADs face, but it's so much better than hiring a retread - especially if the retread was previously succeeding in a pre-transfer portal/NIL era. Canisius is one example that comes to mind with Jim Christian. An unbelievably uninspiring hire that has resulted in the Golden Griffins being one of the worst in all of D1 this year.

At Indiana State, Schertz played very fast. The Sycamores ranked top 70 in pace all three years he was there. The last two squads in particular were very efficient offensively - ISU was top 5 in effective field goal percentage both years, and were actually #1 in the country last year. The math definitely checks out - if you can take shots before the other team gets set and focus on getting looks from deep (the Sycamores were top 25 in three point attempt percentage all three years under Schertz) and near the rim (where ISU was basically automatic) you are putting yourself at an advantage. While the Trees were not as efficient defensively, the fundamentals remained strong. Schertz eschewed offensive boards in favor of getting set on the other end. Most importantly, ISU rarely allowed second chance opportunities, ranking top 15 in defensive rebound percentage every year under the former D2 coach.

After Schertz got the job, it was an interesting watch to see just how many ISU guys would follow him to The Gateway City. Ultimately, Ryan Conwell, Jayson Kent, and Julian Larry ended up taking their talents elsewhere. Larry was not originally a Schertz recruit (and is originally from Texas) but it's honestly sad that he and Kent ended up playing for Rodney Terry at UT Austin. They are probably getting good NIL (and Texas may still get into the tournament) but I feel like Schertz would have maximized their talents better at SLU. Conwell meanwhile ended up at Xavier, another team that is also very much on the bubble. If neither team ends up making the tournament that will be even sadder to revisit.

SLU did not have any outright bad losses in the OOC this year but given their schedule they had to have nearly a flawless run to have a shot at an at-large bid. Santa Clara and San Francisco are good WCC teams, but aren't in the field right now. Wichita State has underperformed since destroying SLU in November. Grand Canyon had at-large potential on paper, but hasn't really hit the mark this year. Illinois State and Wofford are good offensive teams, but aren't currently favored to win their respective conferences. During the early part of the year, SLU's defense was once again letting them down, but in Schertz's defense they were also dealing with a lot of injuries. Creighton transfer Josiah Dotzler went down with ACL and MCL injuries in late November which was season-ending. Miami (FL) transfer AJ Casey took a medical redshirt due to ankle injury which shortened the rotation that much more. In December, Larry Hughes II also left the team. That was a bit of a surprise given how much of a legend his dad is in that area.

Despite the shortened rotation, there's still plenty of firepower coming from the starting unit. Robbie Avila and Isaiah Swope are the bookends who both followed Schertz from Terre Haute.

Avila took the college basketball world by storm last year with his signature goggles which earned him the nicknames "Cream Abdul-Jabbar" and "Larry Nerd", among others. He is a flat out baller and tough cover in general. Part of SLU's slow start stemmed from an ankle injury that Avila suffered in the preseason that eventually caused him to miss a few games after he re-aggravated it against Santa Clara. Avila is the heart of everything SLU wants to do offensively. He's an excellent passer (4.3 apg), is a career 37% three point shooter so you can't pack it in against him, and he's just so crafty around the hoop. Is he the best athlete? No, but he doesn't need to in order to be effective. Avila has finished in double figures in 29 straight games and is 52nd in the nation in ppg (18.4). It's a given that we aren't going to stop him, but to even have a chance GW probably can't afford for him to get 20+ points tomorrow.

Swope meanwhile serves as a nice complement to Avila. He leads the Billikens with 5.1 apg (50th nationally) and has a quick release on his shot. He loves to take a step-back jumper and is very good at creating separation from his defender. Swope is also a fairly good on-ball defender, pesky despite being a bit undersized for his position. While his efficiency has taken a slight step back from his days at Southern Indiana and Indiana State, he still averages three made triples a game. SLU has not shot the ball as well as they usually do in their last two games against La Salle and Richmond, and Swope himself was just 5/24 from the field in those games. GW will want to ensure he doesn't over-perform his average in makes from distance.

17-year veteran Gibson Jimerson, who likely has eight more years of eligibility, has thrived this season with some of the attention being directed towards Avila and Swope (all three players average over 17 ppg). Jimerson entered the transfer portal following Ford's firing but made the right decision to come back. Schertz's system feels perfect for him. Earlier this month, Jimerson became the A10's all-time leader in threes made (he has now made 371 in his career, and is 38% from deep this year which ranks 88th in all of CBB). Compared to the last couple of years, he's playing less of an on-ball role. Schertz is having him do what he does best: shoot the cover off the ball. Jimerson is taking over 66% of his attempts from deep this year, and in general has to love being in an offense that actually emphasizes threes. The past three games have been a bit of a struggle for him, as Jimerson is just 10/36 (28%) from the field. It's not Gerald bad, but definitely under his averages.

Two more transfers from other schools - Brown transfer Kalu Anya and West Virginia transfer Kobe Johnson round out the starting lineup. Anya is somewhat of an anomaly on this SLU team in that he's not much of a shooter (career 28% from 3, 47% from the line) but he adds some much needed physicality and muscle down low. The Massachusetts native can finish effectively near the hoop and use his quick hands on defense, while also possessing the ability to pass out to the perimeter and most importantly rebound the ball at an exceedingly high clip (nearly 10 boards a game - 21st nationally). While Swope and Jimerson have slumped a bit the past two games, Anya has picked up the slack which helped SLU win both, averaging a double double (10.5 ppg, 11 rpg) on 10/14 shooting from the field. GW needs to make him earn his points from the line.

Johnson meanwhile is the lowest usage offensive player in the starting unit. He's another guy who missed some time early on due to a shoulder injury. The former Mountaineer can hit an open shot but is better going downhill and in general playing the glue guy role, doing whatever the team needs. He had 10 points in SLU's last outing against La Salle which shows that he can score when needed but his number isn't called on that front very often.

Don't expect a lot of minutes from the Billiken bench. As you can see above, they are towards the bottom of D1 in bench points, partly due to the injuries they faced early on. Most of the bench guys are also on the more inexperienced side. Kellen Thames is a holdover from the Ford era who showed some real flashes last year. He's not a particularly good FT shooter but is capable of getting it going as a scorer from the field and crashing the glass. Thames missed three games due to a hip injury which has hampered him after a quick start to the season where he averaged 14.8 ppg through four games. In conference play, he sees about 10 minutes of action.

Injuries have opened the door for true freshmen Amari McCottry, Dylan Warlick, and Max Pikaar to seize a few minutes of action. McCottry has cashed in on his limited attempts on the season but is just 45% from the line. He has good size and measurables but is more of a long-term piece. McCottry has taken just one shot in conference play and 14 minutes total. Warlick, another three-star recruit, was a guy I think GW had expressed interest in during his recruitment. The Oklahoma native is an undersized forward who has a nose for the ball and sports a nice touch on his shots. He's played 52 minutes in conference play compared to just 39 OOC, indicating a potential increased load moving forward. Pikaar attended powerhouse Sunrise Christian Academy in Kansas but hails originally from the Netherlands. He's got good size at 6'11" but has to add a bit of strength to his frame. He will compete for minutes with fellow European Kilian Brockhoff who spent his freshman year at UC Santa Barbara. The German is a stretch forward who has taken 75% of his career attempts from deep.

I'm not really sure what to expect. GW has gone up against three really physical teams during their losing streak (I think the upcoming schedule might help Sean a bit moving forward) but SLU is a different animal. As you can tell by the "rim & 3 metric" above (where they are ninth nationally), SLU takes analytically smart shots. GW is actually 4th in the nation in this same category, but doesn't quite have the talent to fully pull it off. The Revs have improved with regards to three point defense, but this will be tested against the Billikens - both Swope and Jimerson are top 40 in three point makes per game. It's obvious at this point that the shots will have to fall in order to have a chance, which means Gerald has to turn things around because Dayan isn't really a high volume three point guy. This is especially true given SLU doesn't allow too many second chance opportunities and don't foul much, meaning fewer FTs for GW. They've also improved defensively since conference play has rolled around.

On the flip side, the Billikens will not crash the offensive glass which has been a weakness for MBB. Schertz has not played as fast with a thinner bench (Jimerson is third nationally in minutes, Swope is 17th) - therefore GW will want to speed SLU up and work to turn them over. For a team that shoots the ball so well, they are weirdly not good at FTs so fouling may be an option depending on the player. Whatever the case is, the offense is going to have to be unpredictable. If Boisvert knows what we're going to run it's going to be a long game. Given GW has sucked against SLU for a while, I'm not particularly confident and don't feel like the Revs should be favored.

Projected Score: GW 73, SLU 71. 58% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik predicts a 59% GW victory. ESPN gives the Revs a 57.8% chance at a W.

21-10

Great effort by the good guys, and Castro continues to shine! But we really gotta get Jun going in the second half. Jacoi too…

Billikens making a run.  Need to be better with making an open layup in the zone

The switch that puts Castro on #1 has cost us several times.  Can’t switch on that guy with Castro

64-58 1;26 left. 

Years off of my life

Nice win. I like it.

67-61. They gave Rafael 2 free throws with 3 seconds left. This guy is a wonderful find for us.