Rhode Island is going to be a really tough matchup, even if we had Potter. 

Their guards are really good (Fats is playing at close to an all American level and Dowtin is excellent), Langevine will be a difficult matchup inside, and then they have a bunch of other athletic wings/Forwards in Martin, Walker, Harris, and Obi Toppin’s little brother. 

The biggest problem with the matchup is that URI’s achiles’ heel is that they are a poor three point shooting team.  They don’t rely on it, so our taking it away from them won’t really matter to them.  Their second weakness is defensive rebounding, but we don’t tend to make teams pay for that, and they are very good on the offensive glass so should get lots of second chances. 

I really don’t know how we hang with them, so I guess we will need to shoot the lights out and compete really hard, and hope they are a bit off.

Rhode Island Rams

Date/Time: Saturday February 8th @ 12:00 PM at The Charles E. Smith Center in Washington DC.
Record Last Year: 18-15, 9-9 (8th in Atlantic 10)
Preseason Ranks: 83rd (KenPom), 71st (Bart Torvik), 82nd (Sports Illustrated), 68th (CBS)
Projected Record: 22-8, 14-4 (2nd in Atlantic 10)
Postseason Last Year: None.

Coaching Record: David Cox, 2nd season at Rhode Island. Cox won 18 games last year, and can match that total tomorrow with a win. Before becoming the head coach, he spent four seasons as an assistant in Kingston with stints as an assistant at Pittsburgh (one season), Georgetown (three seasons) and Rutgers (four seasons including one as interim head coach). He played college ball at William & Mary from 1991-95, ranking eighth in school history in assists. He earned his master's a year later in education. Cox definitely strikes me as a coach who will be moving up in the ranks in the near future.

All Time Record: 31-29, although Rhode Island has won 5 of the past 6 meetings. Last year's game on the road went very poorly (in a season where most games didn't go well, our 27 point loss 80-53 was the third worst of the season - only the catastrophic disaster against South Carolina and a road loss to VCU were worse). When Javier is your leading scorer and the only one to finish in double figures on the team, you aren't going to win too many games barring a UVA like effort defensively which we were nowhere close to in the game. Langarica finished with a double double with 14 points and 12 rebounds, and is reportedly on his way back, having just had his cast removed from his wrist (Juice is still in concussion protocol - seems concerning he's been out this long because of that). We did well on the glass, outrebounding the Rams 36-29, but turned the ball over 19 times and went an ice cold 0-11 from deep. On the other hand, URI who was one of the worst three point shooting teams in the country last year made 10 threes at a 48% clip, shot 54% from the field overall, and had 20 assists to go with 15(!) steals. Definitely a performance to forget overall.

Offensive Efficiency: 79th (KenPom), 73rd (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 44th (KenPom), 45th (Bart Torvik)
Tempo: 55th (KenPom), 55th (Bart Torvik). If we play at URI's tempo, we have ZERO chance of winning.

Key Returning Players:
Jeff Dowtin (SR; Upper Marlboro, MD) 15.3 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.7 apg; 48% FG, 35% 3-pt, 75% FT
      Last year against us: 16 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists; 6-8 FG, 4-6 3-pt in 28 minutes.

Cyril Langevine (SR; East Orange, NJ) 14.7 ppg, 9.9 rpg; 57% FG, 60% FT
      Last year against us: 13 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks; 5-7 FG, 3-7 FT in 27 minutes.

Daron 'Fatts' Russell (JR; Philadelphia, PA) 14.2 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1.8 spg; 34% FG, 22% 3-pt, 74% FT
      Last year against us: 14 points, 5 assists, 4 steals; 5-12 FG, 2-5 3-pt, 2-3 FT in 28 minutes.

Tyrese Martin (SO; Allentown, PA) 8.1 ppg, 5.2 rpg; 42% FG, 31% 3-pt, 65% FT
      Last year against us: 7 points, 5 rebounds, 3 steals; 3-5 FG, 1-2 3-pt in 28 minutes.

Key Losses:
Much like most teams in the A10 this season, URI brought back pretty much everyone of consequence. They did lose reserve player Dana Tate to Siena recently - a good pickup for Carm's squad. 

Comments:
David Cox had a decent first year at URI all things considered. The Rams were forced to play a form of "bully ball" crashing the glass offensively for second chance opportunities to make up for their lack of shooting and overall poor shot selection. Rhode Island was more or less okay to decent in most categories but were notably horrendous from deep, finishing 351st in three point field goal percentage at 28%. While Cox wisely realized that gunning from deep would be a poor strategy (URI ranked just 345th in three point attempts per game) the Rams still had four players take 100+ threes.

Even though the Rams didn't have shooters on last year's team and the shot selection was poor, 28% seemed like a bit of bad luck. Things have reverted to the norm this year as URI shoots it at 32.3%, helping them average roughly five points more per game this season. It hasn't hurt that Daron 'Fatts' Russell has gone from a horribly inefficient volume shooter to a clear 1st team all-A10 guy this year either. Although there were signs that Russell was coming around towards the end of last year, he has taken his game to another level this year, leading the league in scoring at 20.2 ppg. That's not the only part of his game that's improved though. He is averaging nearly one assist more per game while turning it over at roughly the same rate as last year. Defensively, he is now averaging over three steals a game - good for second in the league behind just Gilyard of Richmond. I worry about JNJ and Shawn coughing up the ball quite a bit in Armel's continued absence. How well we fare in the turnover department will determine our overall success during the game. Most importantly, he has improved his shot selection, and is shooting 7% better from the floor, 14% better from deep (43 made threes - leads team), and 12% better from the line. Fatts is without a doubt a force to be reckoned with in the league. I would consider this to be a breakout year for him, even if his stats from previous years suggests otherwise.

With Fatts commanding so much attention, it has allowed seniors Jeff Dowtin and Cyril Langevine to play more complementary roles in the offense and guys Rhode Island can turn to when they need a steadying presence. Dowtin, who led the team in scoring last year, is putting up nearly identical numbers as last year. He was their best shooter from deep at 35% last year, and while he is by no means a heavy volume shooter from deep (he prefers to go inside) he is still a threat from deep as evidenced by his four made threes against us last season. Dowtin also pitches in as a secondary distributor on offense (second on team at 3.1 apg) and is good for a few boards per game. Langevine in a lot of ways is having the season that I (and I'm sure a lot of others) were hoping to get from AT this year (and to Arnaldo's credit, he did start off that way). Langevine averages a double double with 10.1 points and rebounds per game. His rebounding ranks third in the league after the SLU tandem of Goodwin and French. While his scoring has taken a slight step back with the emergence of Russell, Langevine has most notably improved as a passer out of the post with 1.8 apg, giving the Rams an added dimension offensively. He is their best rim protector, averaging about two blocks per game but isn't really one of the most intimidating ones we have (and will) face in conference play, and URI as a whole isn't going to be swatting a lot of shots defensively. It is also worth mentioning that he can cough up the ball a bit (averages nearly three turnovers per game) and is just a 47% free throw shooter on the year. His 3-7 showing from the line was pretty much the only thing that didn't go right for URI last year, and maybe a hacking strategy is a possibility should they go to him frequently down low. Chase has another tough matchup, but at this point it's clear most teams in the league have at least one pretty good big man.

Tyrese Martin is a sophomore forward who similarly knows how to play in a complementary role really well. Martin has arguably had a slight second year breakout of sorts, increasing his scoring from 8 ppg to 12.5 (third on team) and is also their second best rebounder at 6.7 rpg. He can step out and shoot it as well, having canned 33 threes (second on team) at a 34% rate. It's more or less expected that Russell, Dowtin, and Langevine will have double figure performances in the game, but if Martin also has a huge game we could be in some trouble tomorrow.

The rest of Rhode Island's rotation will consist of Georgetown transfer Antwan Walker, sophomore Jermaine Harris, and freshmen Jacob Toppin and Mekhi Long. Walker, who was dismissed from the Hoya squad last season for an off-court incident, became eligible midseason but has seen considerably less action the past two contests. He has shot well from three on limited attempts but will likely spend more time in the post as a 6'9" big where he finishes at a good rate at 59% and adds a few boards per game. Harris has seen the slightest of upticks in minutes (18.6), points (5.8), and rebounds (3.4) but like Walker will spend more time shooting underneath than stroke it from deep (just 3/19 on the year from 3). He started last year's game and added 6 points on 3-7 shooting in 18 minutes. Toppin, the younger brother of conference player of the year Obi (yeah it hasn't been announced, but we all know who is going to win the award) has shown flashes of his brother's athletic ability, scoring and rebounding the ball at a good rate in limited time. He isn't a great free throw shooter at 54% and isn't quite a three point shooter yet (10/38) so the goal will be keeping him out of the paint (easier said than done based on how we play defensively). Long will add a few points and rebounds in limited time but hasn't shot the ball very well in his freshman campaign. 

I guess you could call this somewhat of a homecoming for Cox given he was born in DC and spent his first three years as an assistant at nearby Archbishop Carroll HS. Not surprising he has recruited this area well - Dowtin and Harris both hail from Upper Marlboro, Long is also from MD, Walker is from DC, and their two freshmen coming in next year - Wood and Leggett (who we both had interest in) are from this area. This will be a tough matchup regardless of venue. Pretty much the only thing working in our favor is that it is at our place (and possibly that URI is looking ahead to the upcoming Dayton game on the road, although they cannot afford to lose against us with their current postseason aspirations). Offensively, we have struggled against top 100 defenses so Rhody ranking in the top 50 is bound to cause some problems. In general, we haven't been great defensively the past several contests so I don't see how we keep this a low scoring game. It might be in our best interest to play at a snail's pace, which we have been doing the past few contests. While I do think this team could be playing a bit faster than they are currently, I'd rather with Armel out that JNJ and Shawn play slow given their turnover struggles last game. If URI is putting up points, I don't see how we keep up with them unless we are on our game from distance like the Davidson game. It does help that we have won three in a row at home, but it will be very tough to make it four in a row. UMass played them tough on the road, only losing by 6 (though the margin was probably closer to 10 all game), and since I'd consider we are probably on their level right now, I'm definitely not hoping we see another blowout. A single digit loss should be the minimum goal.

Predicted Score: Rhode Island 73, GW 64. 19% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us a 20.2% chance to win. The win percentage sounds optimistic even at home, but my feelings may be a combination of Armel still out and us being blown out the last two games.
 

This game will be shown on CBS SportsNetwork

I agree with you guys about this being a very difficult matchup for GW. I think the one thing in GW's favor is they are at home(it's also homecoming to Rhode Island's coach and several players too as you guys pointed out), plus Armel Potter is back(I just read it from DMVPiranha before posting this). GW plays a lot better at home, so I think they'll be way more competitive today, than they were in the last 2 games at Richmond and St. Bonaventure. If this game were at Rhode Island, I'd fully expect a non-competitive, 20 point loss(even with Potter), but I think GW will be able to stay with Rhode Island for most of the game. Rhode Island is an 8.5 or 9 point favorite. 

Where’s Toro?

Rhode Island makes 4/5 from 3 to start the game.  Will make it that much harder for us to stay close with these guys.

Amir Harris is on the bench in street clothes(in a long-sleeved green shirt), it probably would have been better if the NCAA denied his waiver and he sat out this year.

Langevine is providing the same type of problems in the post that Osun, Hughes and Golden have in previous games meaning it looks like a bunch of 8th graders guarding a man!! This game will probably end up like the last 2 games when you look at Rhode Island's terrific 3-point shooting and Langevine's dominance in the paint, but George Mason is next, which is a very winnable game!!! LOL 

well we could start watching the 12th ranked men's squash team.  Of course there are only 14 Div 1 men's squash teams and about 35 Div III squash teams.

Just got back from a class. I just looked at the box score and saw us with 15 turnovers with Nelson with 5 and Walker with 4. I don't have to look at the score. Old John Chaney of Temple would have been horrified by 4. Nelson just doesn't think. Sad.

So this is what rock bottom looks like

I'm happy we got our score above 50.