There's a lot of parity in the league this year, so conventional wisdom would suggest that picking the rest of the field would be the move. Yet I think I'm going with VCU/Dayton.

For me, it's more about VCU being on the side. Aside from the analytics, they have definitely looked like the best team in the league - they're balanced and have the personnel to make a deep run. But it's not just that. Since they joined the A10 back in 2012-13, the Rams have made the tournament championship in 7 of 11 years. Now their record in the actual final isn't great (2-5) but the fact that they've made it to the final game so often suggests that at least I have a shot.

Dayton could always regain their form from OOC, but it's really their defense that has let them down. You could make the argument that they are victims of some bad luck - A10 foes are shooting nearly 39% from deep, but in general they haven't been able to get stops inside either. Their D can be disruptive, but in a tournament setting I can't convince myself that the good version will show up in consecutive games. If they can show more consistency in February, perhaps this changes but they did not have a good January.

As for the rest, this will seem like a slight towards GMU but I question the Patriots being able to have the offensive firepower needed to win the tourney. Skinn has been fantastic, and they can definitely make a game ugly/limit possessions to always give them a chance but one hot shooting day from the opposition could spell disaster. SLU has dealt with too many injuries/limited depth to survive in the tourney, otherwise I definitely think they could have been in the conversation. UMass would need Diggins/Curry to play like Steph Curry/Klay Thompson in order to have a chance. I don't like to count out Schmidt/St. Bona, but they just have the feel of high floor/low ceiling team. Loyola just doesn't have the horses to win it all this year, partly due to injuries. St. Joe's should be a threat, but Lange will find a way to underperform with that roster. The Hawks are a high-variance squad which doesn't play well on a night to night basis.

URI/GW/Duquesne/La Salle/Davidson are too inconsistent to contend. Rhody's offense when not in transition is bad. GW doesn't have the guard play. Duquesne is too streaky offensviely. La Salle doesn't have the talent. Davidson has the offense + Reed Bailey, but lacks athleticism/defense to survive. Fordham/Richmond are already looking to next year.

The website below lists VCU as -190 to win A10 Tournament, which I think is crazy. Mason next best at +155, and Dayton at +2000! GW at +20000…

https://www.sportsbetting3.com/ncaabb/a-10-basketball-futures-odds

Next wager:

Sunday..Noel Brown against his former team.  Must achieve both marks to win the Over bet.:

Noel Brown Over 9.5 points and Over 5.5 rebounds          +140
Noel Brown Under 9.5 points or Under 5.5 rebounds         -170

Good luck.

Our first ticket has been hypothetically cashed.  Congratulations to Rising as Noel Brown went for 15 and 8 (no, I did not foresee him playing 37 minutes, or hitting a three pointer for that matter) to comfortably win on the over.

Next up is Joe Bamisile and VCU on Wednesday.  Our bet, much like what's on Joe's mind, will solely be about points.  Last year, Joe came off the bench to score 18 points in just 20 minutes against GW.  This year, he is averaging 15.8 points per game overall, 14.5 points per game against A10 opponents, and 12.6 points over his last 5 games.  The arrows are trending down but if Max and Noel are any indication, we must bake "GW revenge game" into the line.  So, here are your choices:

Joe B Over 17.5 points -115
Joe B Under 17.5 points -105

Good luck.

Congrats to Rising for making it two in a row.  Joe was quiet enough throughout most of the game that his late game scoring burst wasn't enough to push him over 17.5 points.

While I had future "wagers" planned for this thread, I will instead retire it due to underwhelming participation.  Thank you to those who did chime in.