GW Hoops

You are not logged in. Would you like to login or register?



Yesterday 12:07 pm  #1


GW vs Old Dominion Game Thread

GW, follows up a 40 point victory with a match up against Old Dominion

Does GW start the year 4-0? Predicted line?

 

 

Yesterday 7:45 pm  #2


Re: GW vs Old Dominion Game Thread

Old Dominion Monarchs

Date: Saturday November 15th, 2025
Time: 6:00 PM ET
Venue: Charles E. Smith Center (Washington, DC)
TV: ESPN+
Ranks: 204th (KenPom), 204th (Bart Torvik), 186th (Haslametrics), 187th (EvanMiya), 252nd (Sports Illustrated)
2024-25 Record: 15-20, 8-10 (T-8th in Sun Belt)
2025-26 Projected Record: 14-16, 9-9 (T-6th in Sun Belt)

Head-to-Head: 9-5. GW came out on top 78-70 in game 1 of the home-and-home series, marking the first matchup between the two squads since 2003. The Revs did not play the best in the first half, going into halftime down by 1 in Norfolk. The offense erupted in the second half, with GW scoring 44 points to create a bit of distance from ODU going down the stretch. The second 20 minutes also included a memorable dunk from Jun who bounced the ball to himself on a fast break opportunity and slammed it in. GW was efficient from distance in the game (42%), but notably did not settle for many threes, taking just 17 total. They outshot ODU at the FT line 37-17, but only converted on 62% of their charity stripe tries. ODU did out-rebound the Revs in last year's meeting, so it will be interesting to see whether the home team can flip that script around this time. CJ led all scorers with 17 points off the bench, setting a new career-high at the time. It was one of the first times we really saw his ability to get downhill and finish at the rim at a high level. Gerald Drumgoole had 16 points in one of his free efficient performances last year (3/4 from deep). Jun had 13 points/6 rebounds, but went just 5/9 from the line and missed all three of his triple attempts. Sean Hansen also pitched in 10 points - he was still coming off the bench at that point.

Offensive Efficiency: 207th (KenPom), 180th (Bart Torvik), 209th (Haslametrics), 195th (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 220th (KenPom), 243rd (Bart Torvik), 227th (Haslametrics), 201st (EvanMiya)
Pace: 314th (KenPom), 268th (Bart Torvik), 289th (Haslametrics), 301st (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 261st
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 298th
Rim & 3 Rate: 76% (324th)

Strengths (2024-25 Season):
Offensive Rebounds Per Game: 14.29 ORPG (6th; 1st in SB)
Rebounds Per Game: 38.43 RPG (31st; 3rd in SB)

Weaknesses (2024-25 Season):
Turnovers Forced Per Game: 10.63 TO/G (293rd; 10th in SB)
Scoring Margin: -3.5 PPG (295th; 10th in SB)
Steals Per Game: 5.5 SPG (308th; 12th in SB)
Assist/Turnover Ratio: 0.92 AST/TO (313th; 14th in SB)
Scoring Offense: 67.9 PPG (314th; 11th in SB)
Three Pointers Per Game: 6.2 3PM/G (319th; 13th in SB)
Assists Per Game: 10.5 APG (343rd; 13th in SB)
Three Point Percentage: 28.8% (350th; 14th in SB)
Field Goal Percentage: 39.6% (351st; 14th in SB)
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 44.7% (352nd; 14th in SB)

Projected Starting Lineup:
#6 G LJ Thomas (Senior; Plant City, FL) - 14.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.9 apg, 1 spg; 41% FG, 25% 3-PT, 80% FT per 31.2 mpg/31 GP at Austin Peay last season
#23 G Jordan Battle (Senior; Norfolk, VA) - 12.8 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 1.9 apg; 42% FG, 43% 3-PT, 81% FT per 31.2 mpg/31 GP at Coastal Carolina last season
#0 G KC Shaw (Senior; Charlotte, NC) - 18 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 3.1 apg; 45% FG, 26% 3-PT, 66% FT per 35.1 mpg/29 GP at Maryland Eastern Shore last season
#3 G Scottie Hubbard (Sophomore; Washington, DC) - 2.4 ppg, 1.2 rpg; 32% FG, 37% 3-PT, 67% FT per 8.6 mpg/18 GP at Old Dominion last season
#35 F Caelum Swanton-Rodger (Senior; Calgary, Canada) - 5.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.1 apg, 1.8 bpg; 57% FG, 51% FT per 20.6 mpg/34 GP at Old Dominion last season

Key Bench Players:
#4 G Robert Davis Jr. (Junior; Detroit, MI) - 15.6 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.8 apg; 35% FG, 33% 3-PT, 84% FT per 35.7 mpg/34 GP at Old Dominion last season
#7 G/F Drew McKenna (Sophomore; Laurel, MD) - 1.8 ppg, 1.7 rpg; 36% FG, 6% 3-PT, 55% FT per 7.4 mpg/20 GP at Georgetown last season
#2 G Zacch Wiggins (Freshman; Greensboro, NC)
#8 F Donovan Raymond (Sophomore; Charlotte, NC) - 1.9 ppg, 1.7 rpg; 52% FG, 50% FT per 7.3 mpg/20 GP at Old Dominion last season
#13 F Jared Turner (Junior; Silver Spring, MD) - 8 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.2 apg; 41% FG, 38% 3-PT, 69% FT per 23.5 mpg/31 GP at Northeastern during 2023-24 season

Key Losses:
Sean Durugordon (Graduated; Harlem, NY) - 15.7 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 1.2 spg; 45% FG, 32% 3-PT, 79% FT per 32.2 mpg/35 GP
Devin Ceaser (Transferred to UMBC; Waldorf, MD) - 11.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg; 39% FG, 27% 3-PT, 73% FT per 20.6 mpg/12 GP
Jaden Johnson (Transferred to La Salle; Baltimore, MD) - 8.6 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 3.7 apg; 37% FG, 18% 3-PT, 71% FT per 34.2 mpg/35 GP
RJ Blakney (Graduated; Baltimore, MD) - 6.4 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1 apg, 1 spg; 37% FG, 20% 3-PT, 61% FT per 23.6 mpg/34 GP

Preview:
Last year was always going to be somewhat of a transition one for the Old Dominion Monarchs under first-time college head coach Mike Jones (who?), following a brutal 2023-24 season that saw ODU fall to the absolute cellar of the Sun Belt, finishing 3-15 in conference play under interim HC Kieran Donohue. Donohue took over for longtime head coach Jeff Jones, who had to step away from coaching due to health reasons in the middle of the season.

The hiring of (Mike) Jones, an alum of the school, is sure to re-energize the fanbase. He played there in the early to mid 90s. During his senior year, ODU knocked off Villanova in the first round of the NCAA Tournament (the game went to triple overtime), one of three victories the school has had in the Big Dance in their history. He couldn't pass up the opportunity to return to his alma mater following three seasons as an assistant at both Virginia Tech and Maryland. Of course, this isn't the first time Jones has ever served as head honcho - he racked up over 500 victories as the HC at HS powerhouse DeMatha for 19 years so he knows a thing or two about what it takes to win games. His strong ties and connections in the DC area should serve him well recruiting to Norfolk for many years to come.

In my eyes, ODU being picked to finish in the middle (8th) of the Sun Belt last season says a lot about how bad the bottom of the league is than anything else, but this is a Monarch program that has certainly had a lot of success not too long ago. Understandably, it took some time for Old Dominion to get going. They started the year 3-8, and one of those wins came against a non-D1. Arizona showed absolutely no mercy against them in a 58 point victory, and even Boston College posted a decisive 30 point win.

However, in a one-bid league like the Sun Belt, all that really matters is how well you do in March - specifically in the conference tournament. The Sun Belt tournament is probably one of the hardest for a low seed to win, as the format gives the top two teams in the regular season a spot in the semifinals. Seeds 11-14 have to win a ridiculous seven games in seven days to make the Big Dance. Despite that, ODU (which entered as a 10 seed) managed to win three games in a row, making it all the way to the quarterfinals before running out of steam against Troy, the team that represented the conference in the NCAA Tournament. The late season performance definitely provides a springboard for year 2 of the Mike Jones era.

Part of the reason ODU experienced ups and downs last season was that their point guard was a true freshman. Jaden Johnson, who we will be seeing later in the year at La Salle, was handed the keys from day 1. He had some nice moments, but could not hit the broad side of a barn from distance, going just 8/44 and he wasn't significantly better at the rim. While two of ODU's three double figure scorers from last year depart, I'm not sure they are necessarily big losses. Is Sean Durugordon a talented basketball player? Sure - he was top 10 in the nation in double-doubles last year, made more free throws than anyone else in the Sun Belt, and was incredibly seventh nationally in offensive rebounds per game (he led ODU in rebounding in 19 of their final 21 games). Is he a winning basketball player? Four seasons at Mizzou, Austin Peay, Siena, and ODU suggests that's a strong no. None of those teams he was on even finished .500. Devin Ceasar, who will be coming to Foggy Bottom next week with UMBC, was yet another "scoring" guard who struggled with efficiency. Veteran RJ Blakney, who was always a steadying presence even from his time at Dayton, was never really a dynamic offensive weapon.

The common theme among that quartet of players is that they were fairly bricky from distance (Durugordon was more mediocre than outright bad), leading to a dismal 350th place finish for ODU in three point percentage. Opponents were more than happy to go zone against ODU, and the Monarchs struggled mightily to find ways to break the zone moving the ball. I guess the one thing they were good at was crashing the glass for second chance opportunities (6th nationally) with opposing teams out of position. Without that, this may have been one of the least efficient offenses in the country. Unsurprisingly, ODU was very much an under team last year, with all but four conference contests going under the total. From a rim and 3 perspective, shot selection was not particularly great either. The Monarchs also failed to generate enough pressure defensively to make opponents uncomfortable, a separator between the good and bad teams in the Sun Belt.

Jones seems to have landed a fairly talented portal haul, and there are a couple guys who on paper should improve the shooting. The question becomes how much it improves. ODU was picked fifth in this season's Sun Belt preseason poll, with a couple first place votes. The conference definitely seems a lot more open this year - Arkansas State lost Hodgson and some of Troy's better players were poached by some high majors. That leaves the door open for many teams, including ODU, to win it all this year.

Most paths to success for ODU this year would likely require Robert Davis Jr., the Sun Belt's preseason player of the year, having a great season. GW has seen Davis in each of the last two years, as he spent his freshman year in the A10 at UMass. While he hasn't had big games against the Revs (16 points in three games), Davis is certainly capable of getting hot from deep in a hurry and scoring in bunches. He made eight threes on two different occasions last year, including ODU's opener against Buffalo. On a squad that needed shooting in the worst way, Davis barely came off the floor, seeing the most minutes of any player in the Sun Belt (46th nationally) while hoisting more threes than any other player in the country. The race was not even close - Davis attempted 16 more threes than the guy at #2, Abdi Bashir Jr. of Monmouth. It's worth noting that Davis is currently working his way back from a quad injury, which has limited his minutes through three games. He sat out ODU's opener against Miami (OH) and was coming off the bench against Norfolk State the other night.

Joining Davis in the backcourt is intra-conference transfer Jordan Battle, who returns home following a year at Coastal Carolina and three years in Utah (Salt Lake CC and Utah Valley). He was named to the preseason all-Sun Belt third team and scored a combined 35 points in two games against ODU last season. While the Chanticleers were not good last year (they were somehow even worse at forcing turnovers than ODU), Battle led them in scoring (12.8 ppg) and had the best free throw shooting (81%) mark in the conference. More importantly, he shot 43% from 3 with 70 makes. He shot even better during Sun Belt play when he made a staggering 53% of his tries from distance (tops in the league). Battle is not as efficient once run off the line - over his career he has shot better from 3 than 2. He rebounds fairly well for his size, but will likely have to provide more playmaking this season than he has to date in his career.

Austin Peay transfer LJ Thomas rounds out a fairly dangerous perimeter trio. The former 4-star prospect out of HS per ESPN began his career at NC State, playing limited minutes in 42 games across two seasons. He broke out last year at APSU, stuffing the stat sheet and leading the team in scoring with 14.2 ppg. Thomas will likely share ball handling responsibilities with Battle, and he's another guy who rebounds fairly well for his size (this seems to be a priority for Jones). He only shot 25% from deep, but he is probably a better shooter than that. So far, he's leading the Monarchs in scoring at 16.3 ppg on fairly good efficiency. Once again, it's fair to question how much he adds to winning though. He was on NCSU's final four squad, but was not a key contributor. Austin Peay was not particularly good, and really the only thing notable about them is that their coach likes wearing camo to games for some reason. Here's a fun fact: there were only 22 players who had a triple-double in a game, and Thomas was one of them (although it came against a non-D1 opponent).

Speaking of triple-doubles, UMES transfer Ketron 'KC' Shaw also had one in a game last year (also against a non-D1 opponent). In total, GW will face four players in OOC play who had a triple-double in a game. He likely caught the attention of ODU's coaches after he went off for 30 points in what was just a 2 point win for ODU (it was the first win for Jones as a D1 coach). Shaw was the lifeline for the Hawks last season, ranking 74th nationally in points per game (18 ppg) while playing the most minutes in the MEAC. He's very adept at getting to the line, ranking 2nd in the MEAC in free throw attempts (12th nationally). He will rebound like many on this roster. While he can move the ball, he did struggle with turnovers but that came with a huge usage rate. Shaw, who began his career in the D2 ranks, is not a good shooter so cutting off driving lanes will be key to limiting him. Like Battle and Thomas, he comes from an awful team but given how late UMES hired a coach last season that was inevitable.

Thus far, Jones has opted to go with a four guard lineup, with returning sophomore and DC native Scottie Hubbard occupying the fourth spot. Hubbard, who appeared in 18 games last year, provides some size at 6'6" and can space the floor, but he's a non-factor inside the arc and doesn't provide as much rebounding as he should, given the guards around him are shorter.

Georgetown transfer Drew McKenna and freshman Zacch Wiggins will serve as reinforcements from off the bench. McKenna, a former GW recruit, joined the Hoyas a year early and started two games last year. While he did not play much during the regular season, he did get some run in the College Basketball Crown. In two games in Vegas, he averaged 7.5 ppg and 5.5 rpg against two respectable opponents in Washington State and Nebraska. He was a good get for Jones and will likely get better as he continues to get more court time. Wiggins is the younger brother of Aaron Wiggins, who played at Maryland and was drafted by the Oklahoma City Thunder in the second round back in 2021. With that kind of pedigree, he could be a good long-term player for ODU if he sticks around. Freshman wing Elijah Flowers is a deeper option.

Jones has more questions to answer in the front court, especially in games where ODU has to be bigger up front. 7-footer Caelum Swanton-Rodger, who began his career at Maryland and is a native of Calgary (same HS as Bubu), is a lock to start at the 5 after starting 33 games last year for the Monarchs. He was an efficient finisher inside, rebounds, and most importantly protects the rim. Swanton-Rodger ranked 2nd in the Sun Belt in blocks per game (35th nationally), so his return should ensure ODU remains solid up front. In last year's contest, he had 2 points and 2 blocks in 11 minutes.

When healthy, former Robert Morris Colonial Stephaun Walker - who put up 13 points and 11 rebounds on GW last year - likely replaces Hubbard in the starting lineup. That comes at a cost - Walker is more of a presence near the hoop (and is a beast on the boards), but he's a non-shooter. That will cramp spacing when paired with Swanton-Rodger. Still, ODU will miss his presence as he works his way back from injury. It is currently unclear at what point in the season that will be.

Northeastern transfer Jared Turner, another local guy, has the height (and will probably get some run at the 4 over the course of the season) but is more of a wing by trade. Turner left Boston prior to the start of last season (and sat out all of 2024-25) but when he last took the court he proved he could stretch the floor (he's a career 41% three point shooter). Through three games, his minutes have been a little all over the place so it remains to be seen just how big his role will be at ODU.

Donovan Raymond, who began his career at nearby Hampton, will likely back up Swanton-Rodger. He can finish at the rim and provide a touch of rebounding in limited time. Raymond had a three game stretch midway through Sun Belt play where he scored a combined 23 points. ODU went 2-1 in those games. While he nearly fouled out in all three of those contests, perhaps there is some untapped potential there.

ODU is no doubt more talented this year compared to last, but most of their imports come from losing cultures and I think that plays a role. You definitely don't want to be lackadaisical with rebounding against a team like the Monarchs. While their guards have talent, each one has a weakness finishing inside or from behind the arc. If Walker remains out, GW seems to have a sizable advantage up front. Eventually some team GW faces will have a good shooting day and the water may start to lose its current level when it comes to shooting for the Revs. However, as long as they stay focused this should be a W. It's hard to find many faults with how the AU game went, outside of small things like CJ's ball security. Like American, ODU prefers a slower pace, so a key will be whether GW can speed them up. As GW continues to move up on KenPom, it will get that much harder to cover each game.

Projected Score: GW 85, ODU 70. 91% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik forecasts a 92% chance at a W. ESPN predicts a 91.8% chance for GW to move to 4-0.

 

Board footera

 

Powered by Boardhost. Create a Free Forum