UMBC Retrievers

Date: Wednesday November 19th, 2025
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Charles E. Smith Center (Washington, DC)
TV: ESPN+
Ranks: 282nd (KenPom), 275th (Bart Torvik), 284th (Haslametrics), 268th (EvanMiya), 263rd (Sports Illustrated)
2024-25 Record: 13-19, 5-11 (8th in America East)
2025-26 Projected Record: 16-13, 9-7 (T-2nd in America East)

Head-to-Head: 6-4. GW fell to the Retrievers on the road 92-81 back in 2020, which snapped a 4 game win streak in the series. Granted, it came during the season impacted most by COVID, but it was arguably one of GW's worst performances of the year. How on Earth was GW able to get down 25 to UMBC during the game? No disrespect to the Retrievers, but that shouldn't happen for an A10 team. In general, it was just a wild game. GW certainly made a valiant effort trying to come back. With just under a minute left in the game, a Jamison Battle three cut the lead down to just 2 but UMBC scored 9 straight points to ice the game. As you would expect from a Jamion Christian-coached team in crunch time, we had Jameer Nelson Jr. hoist up a three despite it being a 4 point game with 30 seconds left. That was later exacerbated by a JNJ technical just seconds later. For context, JNJ was 0-6 from the field prior to that shot, not exactly "riding the hot hand". Each team made 10 threes at a fairly good clip. UMBC had the slight edge in rebounding (34-41), and incredibly had 20 assists to 20 turnovers (not sure I've ever seen a ratio like that). GW meanwhile had just 11 assists, with JB accounting for 6 of them. That brings me back to the meaningless "assist rate" stat that all JC point guards had, which discouraged overall team ball movement. Bishop led the team in scoring with 20 points, while Battle was right behind with 19. Maceo Jack had a great night, with 17 points on a perfect 7-7 shooting from the field. Matt Moyer added 10.

Offensive Efficiency: 229th (KenPom), 220th (Bart Torvik), 265th (Haslametrics), 219th (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 317th (KenPom), 330th (Bart Torvik), 287th (Haslametrics), 310th (EvanMiya)
Pace: 147th (KenPom), 92nd (Bart Torvik), 48th (Haslametrics), 117th (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 268th
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 272nd
Rim & 3 Rate: 83% (168th)

Strengths (2024-25 Season):
Three Point Percentage: 38.7% (9th; 1st in AE)
Field Goal Percentage: 48.5% (17th; 2nd in AE)
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 55.9% (22nd; 1st in AE)
Scoring Offense: 80 PPG (37th; 2nd in AE)
Fouls Per Game: 15.3 PF/G (53rd; 4th in AE)
Three Pointers Per Game: 9 3PM/G (61st; 1st in AE)
Fastbreak Points: 11.97 PPG (73rd; 1st in AE)
Turnover Margin: +1.4 TO/G (91st; 3rd in AE)
Assists Per Game: 14.7 APG (99th; 4th in AE)

Weaknesses (2024-25 Season):
Winning Percentage: 40.6% (268th; 7th in AE)
Free Throw Percentage: 69.2% (272nd; 8th in AE)
Blocks Per Game: 2.7 BPG (276th; 7th in AE)
Field Goal Percentage Defense: 46.3% (310th; 7th in AE)
Rebounds Per Game: 32.09 RPG (319th; 8th in AE)
Scoring Defense: 78.8 PPG (330th; 9th in AE)
Offensive Rebounds Per Game: 7.44 ORPG (342nd; 9th in AE)
Rebound Margin: -6.3 RPG (345th; 9th in AE)

Projected Starting Lineup:
#1 G Ace Valentine (Junior; Columbia, MD) - 8 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 3.2 apg, 1 spg; 52% FG, 33% 3-PT, 67% FT per 26.7 mpg/31 GP at UMBC last season
#4 G Jah'likai King (Junior; Newburgh, NY) - 15.8 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.4 apg, 1 spg; 46% FG, 30% 3-PT, 84% FT per 35.8 mpg/29 GP at D2 New Haven last season
#3 G/F DJ Armstrong Jr. (Graduate Student; Orlando, FL) - 12.3 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.5 apg; 44% FG, 37% 3-PT, 92% FT per 37.6 mpg/28 GP at D2 Texas-Permian Basin last season
#5 F Daylon Dickerson (Junior; Kaufman, TX) - 3.1 ppg, 1.7 rpg; 49% FG, 18% 3-PT, 74% FT per 7.8 mpg/22 GP at UMBC last season
#23 F Riley Jacobs (Freshman; Alexandria, VA)

Key Bench Players:
#11 F Caden Diggs (Sophomore; Waldorf, MD) - 2.9 ppg, 1.3 rpg; 34% FG, 24% 3-PT, 84% FT per 10.6 mpg/35 GP at Old Dominion last season
#21 G Cougar Downing (RS Fifth Year; Atchison, KS) - 12.2 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.7 apg; 44% FG, 46% 3-PT, 77% FT per 29.4 mpg/26 GP at D2 Eastern New Mexico last season
#10 F Paul Greene (Graduate Student; Freeport, Bahamas) - 13.8 ppg, 12.1 rpg, 2 apg, 1.8 spg; 49% FG, 32% 3-PT, 66% FT per 30.5 mpg/28 GP at D2 Southern New Hampshire last season
#2 F Josh Odunowo (Graduate Student; Laurel, MD) - 11.1 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.1 spg; 57% FG, 58% FT per 27.6 mpg/30 GP at UMBC last season
#14 F Jose Roberto Tanchyn (Junior; Cordoba, Spain) - 9.1 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.5 apg; 52% FG, 31% 3-PT, 61% FT per 21.7 mpg/27 GP at D2 Palm Beach Atlantic last season
#7 F Tim Eze (Sophomore; Kleinburg, Canada) - 2.8 ppg, 1.5 rpg; 51% FG, 14% 3-PT, 79% FT per 6.3 mpg/19 GP at UMBC last season
#13 G Devin Ceaser (Senior; Waldorf, MD) - 11.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg; 39% FG, 27% 3-PT, 73% FT per 20.6 mpg/12 GP at Old Dominion last season

Key Losses:
Bryce Johnson (Graduated; Orlando, FL) - 16.7 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.6 apg; 52% FG, 38% 3-PT, 75% FT per 31.3 mpg/30 GP
Marcus Banks Jr. (Transferred to Massachusetts; Hampton, VA) - 16.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2 apg, 1.3 spg; 44% FG, 42% 3-PT, 85% FT per 30.4 mpg/32 GP
Marlon Short (Graduated; Richmond, CA) - 8.7 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.1 spg; 52% FG, 41% 3-PT, 58% FT per 23.7 mpg/32 GP
Louie Jordan (Transferred to Radford; Leicester, United Kingdom) - 7.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg; 48% FG, 49% 3-PT, 79% FT per 22.3 mpg/31 GP

Preview:
The coaching carousel is always fun to follow at the end of each season. More specifically, it's interesting to see which sitting head coaches are given the chance to move up a level. Too often, coaches are judged by their ability to make the NCAA tournament when it's effectively a crapshoot at the lower level and you need a lot of things to go your way. In my book, if you are a consistent winner, you deserve a chance - regardless of where you won. Stacy Hollowell, the current New Orleans coach, won a championship at the NAIA level but he's already turned the Privateers into a respectable program relative to their peers in year 2. Mike DeGeorge came from D2 Colorado Mesa and last season led Cal Poly to their best finish in 10 years. Obviously, you see the job Josh Schertz has done, from SLU to Indiana State to his days back at D2 Lincoln Memorial. At the end of the day, winners win.

Based on that, it was all the more surprising that Ryan Odom was not given a bigger opportunity right away following UMBC's historic upset of Virginia seven years ago - the first time a 16 seed ever defeated a 1 seed (on a side note, UMBC recently defeated UVA on the WBB side as well). Odom stuck around for three more years before Utah State gave him a chance. USU's AD is clearly savvy, given the Aggies have been consistently good through a number of coaching changes. Most AD's in that position would have likely ignored Odom's resume, given he didn't make the tournament after that magical season. Still, he won nearly 62% of his games at UMBC, which is basically unheard of. Odom guided the Retrievers to two top 200 KenPom finishes in his tenure, something that had been done just twice in the previous 20 years.

Following Odom's departure, longtime head coach Jim Ferry took over. To see the Retrievers go the retread route was disappointing. That's the path that too many ADs take. When you are a program like UMBC, why not take a swing on a hungry, up-and-comer from the lower ranks like similar programs in New Orleans and Cal Poly have above? Ferry has a lifetime 388-348 (53%) record as a head coach. That's not a terrible mark, but it's very middling. At one point, Ferry was an up-and-comer from the D2 ranks himself. He crushed it at D2 Adelphi, but that was also like 25 years ago. Outside of a good two year span at the end of his LIU tenure, his results just haven't been there between Duquesne, a season at Penn State (he was an interim, at a tough job), and UMBC. Additionally, his good LIU years were effectively in a different era of CBB (~15 years ago). UMBC isn't alone in hiring a retread - fellow conference member New Hampshire hired on Nathan Davis, who wasn't good at Bucknell for a bit despite some good success in a different era. At some point, it makes sense to try something new.

I would have to imagine that this year is one where Ferry will have to prove himself, following two sub .500 seasons. Last season, the Retrievers did post a nice win at Towson, but their performance in conference play left a lot to be desired. They basically had no home court advantage, going a dismal 3-11 against the spread at home compared to 9-6 on the road. It wasn't particularly profitable betting on them as a favorite either, as they went just 3-8 in those games last year. The good news for Ferry is that the America East looks way down this year. Vermont is always the favorite (despite a down year last season) and generally has better talent than the rest of the teams in the league, but they struggled in the preseason against a number of D2 teams. I still expect them to turn things around by the time conference play rolls around, and they have been playing better lately. As we saw in the season opener, Maine lost a lot in the offseason. Albany has talent, but I don't really trust their coach Killings. Binghamton's coach is okay, but they seem to have a low ceiling. With time, maybe JC will have enough talent to have Bryant contending again, but this year's team lacks firepower (it's cool to see Keegan starting thus far though). NJIT has looked like one of the better teams so far (they beat Fordham pretty convincingly), but it's hard to imagine the Highlanders going from dead last to towards the top. New Hampshire and UMass Lowell are both brutal (UML lost a lot) and are not going to contend this year. As a result, you have to figure UMBC could be the dark horse in the league. They were picked 7th in the preseason, and I could definitely see them easily outperforming that. The whole "GW being good once a decade" in the other thread had me notice that UMBC made the Big Dance in both 2007-08 and 2017-18. Perhaps that means they are in for a special year two seasons from now.

Offensively, UMBC relies on a lot of off-ball movement (cutting and screening) compared to traditional ball screen action. UMBC has played fairly uptempo under Ferry, which is at least fun to watch if nothing else. Two seasons ago, the Retrievers played at the 5th fastest tempo in the nation, and they were still top 40 last year. Despite the fast pace, they have been fairly good at taking care of the ball (top 100 in turnover rate in three of four years). Shooting has also been solid, as the Retrievers were 11th nationally in three point percentage. That's not to call them a one-trick pony, as they were also 80th in two point percentage as well. The now departed Bryce Johnson (72nd in field goal percentage) and Marcus Banks Jr. were major factors for UMBC in both categories. Banks was not just the best sniper in the America East, but one of the best in the nation. He ranked 25th in three point percentage, and 15th in total threes made for the season. Every player that shot over 33% from deep is gone from last year.

Unfortunately, the fast pace has not come with an attention to detail on the defensive side of the ball. That showed in the over/under, as the Retrievers had 19 games go over the total compared to just 10 that went under. Maryland-Baltimore County has not ranked in even the top 300 in defensive efficiency the last four years, and last year was the low point in the Ferry era, as they bottomed out to a 355th place finish - the 10th worst mark in the country. Ferry's bunch ignored the offensive glass (359th) in order to get back on defense, but it didn't really make a difference. Last year's team in particular attempted to run teams off the three point line (39th in defensive 3PA%) but opponents were more than happy to score inside. With no rim protection (340th in block percentage) every game was a layup line for Retriever opponents (302nd in defensive 2P%). To combat that, they tried zoning at a top 35 rate, but that didn't help either. It was flat out brutal on that side of the ball for them. They don't foul a lot, but that may be a sign that they are not aggressive enough on that side of the ball and are unable to make teams uncomfortable.

While UMBC does lose four of their top six scorers from last season, they do have a solid nucleus returning. Josh Odunowo is the leading returning scorer from last season, a versatile forward who turned in his most efficient collegiate season after previously playing three seasons at Columbia. He has limited range (0/10 from three in his career, and a 57% FT shooter), but is very effective at getting to, and finishing at the rim. Odunowo also led the team in rebounding and showed the capability to be a nice passer when his number was called. Additionally, he was one of UMBC's better defenders, although that might not be saying a lot. It's worth monitoring how many minutes he plays on Wednesday. Odunowo made his return in their last game against Wagner (coming off the bench), but he was sidelined prior to that due to injury.

Fellow forwards Regimantas Ciunys and Daylon Dickerson are also back from last year's squad. Ciunys, a native of Lithuania, enters his fourth year with the program, having appeared in 46 games across three seasons. Like Odunowo, he's a wing that prefers to take it to the basket rather than shoot from distance and is a decent rebounder. He has yet to play this year (I assume due to injury) but will provide leadership and is a proven contributor against America East-level competition. Dickerson is a former JUCO who has entered the starting lineup this season after previously being a rotation guy. Ferry certainly has a type - he's the third 6'6" active forward I've mentioned who likes to attack the rim, but is a non-factor from distance. While he too is a decent per-minute rebounder, Dickerson had one of the worst BPR (-3.13) on the team per EvanMiya. Perhaps a season of D1 under his belt will help him, as he has become more efficient near the rim (64% on the season). We may see a bit of Canadian sophomore Tim Eze as well. Ferry has played around with rotations a lot early in the season, partly due to injuries. To save time, I'll just say he provides more of the same that the previous guys do (interior scoring, no shooting, okay rebounding) - he's just younger.

Floor general Ace Valentine is also back for a third go-around with the Retrievers. Valentine is a good passer (averaging nearly 6 dimes a game this season), rebounder, and generally limits his turnovers. He can also hit the open three (34%), and has increased his three point volume compared to his previous years. Unfortunately, his overall increased volume this year (taking nearly 10 shots a game, compared to 6 before) has hampered his shooting efficiency somewhat. Valentine did miss the last game due to injury, so his availability warrants monitoring as well.

Ferry brings in seven key guys from the portal (5 from D2, 2 from D1). Since we just finished playing ODU, let's start with the D1 guys first. Waldorf natives Caden Diggs and Devin Ceaser both come over after spending last year with the Monarchs. Diggs was a three-star wing out of HS who once held a GW offer (and visited). He adds size, but didn't turn in the most efficient season coming off the bench for ODU last season. Diggs did not shoot the ball well or rebound well relative to his 6'8" height. He has seen his minutes double so far at UMBC, and while he has rebounded significantly better (he had a 14 point, 10 rebound double-double against Wagner) he is not going to be an option that stretches the floor. In last year's game vs. ODU, he did not put up stats in 5 minutes of play.

Landing a proven D1 commodity like Ceaser was quite impressive. Maybe he was a package deal with Diggs. Ceaser averaged double figures (11.5 ppg) at ODU last season, but it was more volume scoring than efficient. He is not hesitant to get up shots. Despite playing just over 20 minutes a game, Ceaser averaged nearly 12 shot attempts. He led the Sun Belt in percentage of shots taken, with nearly the same shot to minute ratio from his time at Buffalo and this season at UMBC. It might be injury related, but it's interesting that he's averaging under 8 mpg so far. The Retrievers may need his scoring this year, but he was ODU's worst defender last season (-1.27 DBPR per EvanMiya). Playing him more minutes isn't likely to help UMBC become even a mediocre defensive unit. Unlike Diggs, Ceaser did have a good game against GW last year, putting up 16 points on 5/12 shooting.

Adding productive pieces from the D2 ranks makes a lot of sense at a program like UMBC. Ferry added Jah'likai King, DJ Armstrong Jr., and Cougar Downing in the backcourt, while Paul Greene and Jose Roberto Tanchyn bolster the frontcourt.

King and Armstrong both led their previous squads in minutes, so they should be able to play big minutes for UMBC this season. King led a middling New Haven team in scoring, rebounding, assists, and steals in their last season in D2 (the Chargers transitioned to D1 this year). At the same time, he was their worst three point shooter (29%) so I'm not sure UMBC will want him to lead them in three point attempts like he is currently by the end of the year. He has provided a similar impact for the Retrievers so far (first in scoring, second in rpg), but has not been efficient (under 40% from the field).

Armstrong played for a slightly better D2 squad in Texas-Permian Basin. He led the Falcons by a significant margin in threes made (74) at a 37% clip while also converting on 92% of his FT attempts. While he did not put up the same level of counting stats as King, his shooting will be hard for UMBC to keep off the floor. As H&R..71 mentioned above, the Orlando native is coming off back-to-back game winners against Morgan State and Wagner. Let's hope he doesn't pull an Ian Boyd (a former GMU player who made three consecutive game winners) from many years ago. Armstrong also previously played at a JUCO (Odessa College).

Apart from having an awesome name, Downing was a deadeye shooter for a decent Eastern NM squad last year. In fact, his metrics are fairly comparable to Armstrong. He led the Greyhounds in threes made with 65 on a scorching 46% shooting. He saw decent run against Wagner, possibly because Valentine was out and he knocked down both three point attempts he attempted. Downing also has a cousin who currently plays at Portland State.

Greene, a Bahamas native, was a beast down low for a good Southern New Hampshire squad last year, averaging a double-double (13.8 ppg, 12.1 rpg) for the Penmen (yup that's their actual nickname). He ranked seventh nationally in rebounding in the D2 ranks and #2 overall in double-doubles. While that level of production is unlikely to fully transfer to the D1 level, rebounding often translates and Ferry should be able to look to him for interior scoring when needed.

The Spaniard Roberto Tanchyn provides good size down low with his 6'10" frame, the tallest on the roster. He ranked second on the Palm Beach Atlantic Sailfish squad in scoring and was first in rebounding. Tanchyn can also stretch out and hit a three on occasion. Ultimately, he probably sees minutes on Wednesday as I'm not sure Ferry has anyone else to throw at Slim and Luke, but it's not like he is going to stop them. He did notably put up 16 off the bench against Dayton earlier in the year.

Finally, 3-star true freshman Riley Jacobs rounds out the roster. Jacobs had a ton of mid-major offers (including GW) and is a great long-term piece for UMBC if he sticks around. So far, he has started every game for the Retrievers. While his efficiency has been a bit up and down so far (not unexpected) he does have the frame to take on more contact against America East foes.

While I could see UMBC making enough threes to keep this game closer than what should be expected, ultimately GW should be able to win this one by dominating inside like they did against Old Dominion. Ferry will try to run the Revs off the line, but without any rim protection both Slim and Luke should have strong outings. This is probably the best rebounding team Ferry has had, but that's not really saying a lot. UMBC has also uncharacteristically struggled to hold on to the ball so far, so perhaps there will be a lot of transition opportunities for GW as well. The Retrievers have actually slowed down a bit pace-wise so far this year, but I'm not sure they can stop GW from hitting 100 points if MBB plays to its ability. Ultimately, it's a good tune up game for the Cayman Island games. Hopefully Tricky and Ty are available to play.

Projected Score: GW 91, UMBC 72. 96% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik forecasts a 95% chance at a W. ESPN predicts a 94.7% chance for GW to move to 5-0.
 

This team has one loss and it was by 6 points at Dayton.  They really do know how to hit 3's and take away the 3.  Am not suggesting that GW shouldn't be comfortably favored but a huge blowout is unexpected, at least by me.

We are a 24 1/2 point favorite this evening.  To a 3-1 team whose sole loss was by 6 points at Dayton?  I guess someone knows something but it's not me.

I am probably overthinking but I fear this may be a trap game.  UMBC will come
In fired up, they know they can play with the top A10 teams.

If we can hit the first few 3s, force them to come out and drive us off the lane and then we take strong to the hoop we will win.  If we Try to force the 3s we will struggle to get the W