Eveny matched
GMU wins at home by 3

but GWU wins if Castro gets 25

George Mason Patriots
Date: Monday January 19th, 2026
Time: 5:00 PM ET
Venue: EagleBank Arena (Fairfax, VA)
TV: CBSSN
Ranks: 73rd (KenPom), 102nd (Bart Torvik), 91st (Haslametrics), 71st (EvanMiya), 91st (Sports Illustrated)
2024-25 Record: 27-9, 15-3 (T-1st in A10)
2025-26 Projected Record: 25-6, 13-5 (T-2nd in A10)
NET Ranking: 65th (Q1 Game)

Head-to-Head: 24-14, although GMU has won the last four games in the series. Last year, GW went 0-3, losing by three points both at Smith and EagleBank Arena. The two teams also met in the A10 tournament, with a poor second half by the Buff & Blue making a major difference.

The game at EagleBank went to double overtime, with the Patriots taking it 80-77. GW was up six at halftime but had a three minute stretch with about ten minutes left in the game where they unraveled a bit and allowed Mason to get back in the game. Despite that run from the home team, GW had a chance to win it in the final second of regulation following an offensive board from Slim where he got fouled. Castro is a bit of a streaky FT shooter, and unfortunately on that day it was the bad version where he went 4/10 from the charity stripe. He needed to make just one FT out of two to ice the game, but missed both. Slim redeemed himself in the first overtime, knocking down both FT attempts to force a second overtime. In double OT, GW had three chances to win it in the final ten seconds but missed all their attempts that allowed GMU to hold on. In the final 30 minutes, the Revs made just two threes. CJ led the team with 16 points, but it came on 19 shots. Tricky had 15, while Jun had a near-perfect night with 15 off the bench. Slim finished with a double-double (12 points, 11 rebounds) while Gerald had 10. Drumgoole went an ugly 0/10 from 3, which was sadly not a one-time occurrence.

In the return game at Smith, the game was super low scoring. The first half set the game of basketball back multiple decades, with the two Georges combining for just 32 points. Despite being down two possessions going into halftime, GW did find a bit more offensive success in the second 20 minutes. A made Gerald layup with under two minutes to go put the Revs up 2. There were multiple missed opportunities to take control down the stretch but GW let them get away. CJ missed both FTs with 30 seconds left down 1 and then he proceeded to turn the ball over down 2 with five seconds left. A Gerald heave just before the buzzer was no good and allowed the Patriots to win yet again by three points. Neither team shot well for the game (especially from the FT line), but GMU had the edge from 3 with GW going just 3/25 (12%). CJ once again led the team with 17 points, Tricky added 11, and Slim finished with yet another double-double (10 points, 10 rebounds).

I'm not going to go super into the A10 quarterfinal meeting. I almost forgot that GW was winning by 4 at halftime with just how catastrophically bad the second half was. The Revs finally shot the 3 ball well, but they could not stop Mason. The Patriots shot a blazing 57% from the field for the game. Slim had 17 points, CJ added 11, and Gerald finished with 10 in that game. Hansen finished with six turnovers in his final game at GW since he didn't play in the Crown.

Offensive Efficiency: 74th (KenPom), 98th (Bart Torvik), 68th (Haslametrics), 70th (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 91st (KenPom), 116th (Bart Torvik), 141st (Haslametrics), 91st (EvanMiya)
Pace: 315th (KenPom), 310th (Bart Torvik), 336th (Haslametrics), 329th (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 92nd
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 119th
Rim & 3 Rate: 81% (223rd)

Strengths (2025-26 Season):
Winning Percentage: 94.4% (6th; 1st in A10)
Free Throws Made Per Game: 20.3 FTM (7th; 1st in A10)
Free Throw Attempts Per Game: 27.4 FTA (8th; 1st in A10)
Fouls Per Game: 15.2 PF/G (28th; 3rd in A10)
Turnovers Per Game: 10 TO/G (33rd; 1st in A10)
Field Goal Percentage: 48.8% (37th; 3rd in A10)
Scoring Defense: 67.2 PPG (37th; 4th in A10)
Scoring Margin: +11.7 PPG (53rd; 3rd in A10)
Field Goal Percentage Defense: 41.3% (61st; 2nd in A10)
Rebound Margin: +5.3 RPG (63rd; 4th in A10)
Three Point Percentage: 36.2% (67th; 7th in A10)
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 54.7% (82nd; 5th in A10)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game: 26.33 DRPG (88th; 5th in A10)
Bench Points Per Game: 27.28 PPG (93rd; 6th in A10)

Weaknesses (2025-26 Season):
Turnovers Forced Per Game: 11.17 TO/G (267th; 10th in A10)
Fastbreak Points: 8.78 PPG (274th; 11th in A10)
Offensive Rebounds Per Game: 9.83 ORPG (287th; 11th in A10)
Three Pointers Per Game: 6.3 3PM (310th; 13th in A10)
Steals Per Game: 5.4 SPG (320th; 13th in A10)
Three Point Attempts Per Game: 17.5 3PA (344th; 13th in A10)

Projected Starting Lineup:
#3 G Kory Mincy (Junior; East Point, GA) - 15 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 4.4 apg, 1.5 spg; 40% FG, 37% 3-PT, 79% FT per 31.8 mpg/33 GP at Presbyterian last season
#2 G Jahari Long (Graduate Student; Houston, TX) - 4.7 ppg, 1.2 rpg, 1.4 apg; 42% FG, 36% 3-PT, 77% FT per 18.5 mpg/30 GP at Maryland last season
#0 G Masai Troutman (Senior; Frederick, MD) - 13.5 ppg, 1.7 rpg; 44% FG, 40% 3-PT, 80% FT per 24.2 mpg/13 GP at Northeastern last season
#13 G/F Malik Presley (Junior; San Marcos, TX) - 2.2 ppg, 1.6 rpg; 43% FG, 13% 3-PT, 47% FT per 11.8 mpg/26 GP at Vanderbilt last season
#35 F/C Riley Allenspach (Junior; Charlotte, NC) - 7.8 ppg, 3 rpg; 58% FG, 48% 3-PT, 67% FT per 13.7 mpg/33 GP at Samford last season

Key Bench Players:
#5 G Fatt Hill (Senior; Bessemer, AL) - 15.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 3.2 apg, 1 spg; 42% FG, 23% 3-PT, 67% FT per 32.4 mpg/31 GP at Ball State last season
#4 F Dola Adebayo (Graduate Student; Fort Myers, FL) - 13.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 1 apg, 1.1 bpg; 52% FG, 31% 3-PT, 74% FT per 29.1 mpg/36 GP at Mount St. Mary's last season
#23 F Nick Ellington (Graduate Student; St. Louis, MO) - 9.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.2 bpg; 56% FG, 61% FT per 23.4 mpg/33 GP at Murray State last season
#10 F Emmanuel Kanga (Freshman; Libreville, Gabon)
#9 F Stas Sivka (Sophomore; Celje, Slovenia) - 1.5 ppg; 62% FG, 50% 3-PT, 33% FT per 4.6 mpg/14 GP at George Mason last season

Key Losses:
Jalen Haynes (Transferred to Cincinnati, Fort Lauderdale, FL) - 14.1 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 1.4 apg; 55% FG, 18% 3-PT, 60% FT per 25.7 mpg/36 GP
Darius Maddox (Graduated; Bowie, MD) - 13.8 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.1 apg, 1.1 spg; 41% FG, 35% 3-PT, 88% FT per 32.5 mpg/35 GP
KD Johnson (Graduated; Atlanta, GA) - 7.9 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.7 apg, 1.3 spg; 42% FG, 37% 3-PT, 72% FT per 21.8 mpg/34 GP
Woody Newton (Graduated; District Heights, MD) - 6.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg; 39% FG, 35% 3-PT, 74% FT per 22.1 mpg/35 GP
Giovanni Emejuru (Transferred to East Carolina; Leicester, United Kingdom) - 6.2 ppg, 4 rpg; 67% FG, 56% FT per 16.2 mpg/36 GP
Zach Anderson (Graduated; Apopka, FL) - 5.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg; 40% FG, 40% 3-PT, 70% FT per 21.7 mpg/36 GP
Jared Billups (Graduated; Waldorf, MD) - 5.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.6 spg; 40% FG, 27% 3-PT, 80% FT per 27.3 mpg/34 GP

Preview:
One of the metrics on KenPom that often gets glossed over is the "luck" rating. On his blog, Pomeroy defines it as the "deviation in winning percentage between a team's actual record and their expected record". Every team has breaks that go their way and moments where things do not, but I'm not sure the word 'luck' does it justice. I also don't know whether the luck metric is adjusted significantly more when the scoring margin between teams is within a couple of possessions. If so, it can probably be a bit misleading based on events that happen in a game. Did the contest remain close throughout? Or did one team mount a comeback and just come up short as they ran out of steam at the end?

GW has not fared too well in the luck metric since CC's first year, when they finished just outside the top 100. That season saw the Buff & Blue go 10-6 in conference play, with a number of clutch shots from JB and BA down the stretch of games making a real difference. GW went 4-0 in OT games that season. So far this year, GW is 354th in the same category. That means just 11 teams rank worse in this metric. Does this team have the ability to close when games get tight, or is GW doomed when they aren't blowing people out with a potent offense?

On the other hand, when a team finds themselves in the top 100 in this metric in back-to-back years, it certainly speaks more to a coach's ability to close out tightly contested games rather than simply attributing it just to luck. That's not to discredit the players either, who definitely play a major role. The team I'm referring to of course is George Mason under the tutelage of Tony Skinn, who's now in his third year coaching his alma mater. Mason has played 17 games that have been decided by six points (or fewer) over the last two seasons. In those games, they've gone 13-4. Of course, two of those came last year against GW.

So what's been GMU's secret formula? The Patriots have formed an identity on the defensive side of the ball known as "Patriot Pressure". It's all about playing an aggressive, stifling defense that makes opponents uncomfortable getting into their offense. Going back to Kim English's final year, Mason has finished inside the top 100 of KenPom's defensive efficiency metric three straight years, and they are definitely well on their way to four in four. Under Skinn, GMU has been content with grinding out games by playing very methodically. All three of his teams have ranked below the top 300 in tempo.

The offensive side of the ball has been the weaker side for them over the last couple years. The Patriots have been fantastic getting to the free throw line for a while now (in fact, they are #2 nationally in free throw rate currently) but it's been the turnovers that have plagued them in previous years. Skinn's squad has taken a major step forward on the offensive end this year. Simply having more efficient players has helped, but they have also valued the basketball unlike in previous seasons. Last year, they were 329th in offensive turnover percentage while this year they are 20th. There's probably not a bigger improvement in that category by any other team in the country. Defensively, Mason has always locked down the paint. They were elite the last two years in defensive 2P% (12th and 7th respectively in Skinn's first two years). While the defense has taken a slight step back, the team is a lot more balanced which has prevented a drop off. They've actually improved their defensive rebounding and fouling rates from previous years as well.

While the Patriots did not play a particularly grueling schedule this season (344th NCSOS) a 17-1 record is impressive given just how much they lost (seven of their top eight guys). Leading scorer Jalen Haynes was a force inside, ranking 39th nationally in field goal percentage, 76th in free throw attempts, and 98th in rebounding. Just imagine if he had decided to stick around instead of wasting a year at Cincy, a fanbase that wants to wear paper bags over their heads instead of supporting their team. To be fair, I believe Haynes had surgery on his knee just before the season which has sidelined him. Darius Maddox, a career 39% three point shooter, was a fantastic go-to option who also ranked 28th in free throw percentage. KD Johnson brought a certain edge and attitude to the team that provided a spark for them in certain games. Woody Newton was a great glue guy who stepped up when the team needed it. He put up 27 in an overtime win at SLU, a tough place to win. When GMU needed more shooting on the floor, Skinn could put Zach Anderson in, a stretch forward that canned 40% of his triples. It was a luxury to bring Jared Billups, the conference's defensive player of the year, off the bench. Long story short, Skinn has been really good at finding individual pieces that can add to the team as a whole.

The two players returning from last year are Brayden O'Connor and Stas Sivka, and O'Connor has played in just one game all year. The Ottawa native who spent two years at UMass Lowell was supposed to be the team leader, but has been out of action due to a foot injury suffered in Mason's season opener against Wofford. When healthy, O'Connor is a good three point shooter and facilitator on offense. It's currently unclear when he will return. Sivka is Slovenian. While his stats won't jump off the page, he has definitely played a larger role this year. As you'd expect from a Euro forward, he can stretch the floor well (career 40% from 3). Two weeks ago against URI, he put up 17 points but he's generally a low usage option who may take just a couple shots a game. From the times I've watched Mason, Sivka has shown good ability to do the little things well, like hustling for loose balls (although he's probably their weakest defender overall).

A bunch of transfers have entered the fold this season. Kory Mincy was an honorable mention all-conference selection in the Big South with Presbyterian last year. He's been even more productive at Mason, leading the team in scoring while shooting a blistering 43% from deep and 92% at the free throw line (13th nationally). Mincy has also been a major reason for why Mason has been better with ball security. His assist to turnover ratio is over 2.5, which is 85th best in the nation and the second best mark in the league behind Bowen of St. Bonaventure. The goal will be to limit his production, because it's been near impossible to shut him down. He's also a fairly good defender. Mincy has scored in double figures in all but three games this year, and he really only struggled in their OOC game against ODU. Skinn knows how important he is to the team, and barely takes him off the floor. In fact, Mincy sees more minutes than any other player in the A10 and ranks 37th overall in mpg.

Riley Allenspach has been Mason's man in the middle. His game could not be more different from Haynes, which has made GMU's consistency so impressive. The junior from Charlotte wasn't even a starter at Samford, but like Mincy he has improved greatly since arriving in Fairfax. Allenspach can stretch the floor, but hasn't shot it great from 3 (29%). Still, he has a really good touch near the rim (33rd nationally in field goal percentage, which only trails Slim in the league) and he leads the squad in rebounding. Allenspach is coming off an impressive 23 point performance against Loyola and really fueled Mason's comeback late. The one good thing about the Ramblers is Rubin's ability to contest inside, so the fact Allenspach went 7/11 from the floor made a difference for the Patriots. He's probably not going to slow Slim down, but he's on the floor anyways for offense.

Outside of Mincy and Allenspach, three other Patriot imports average double figures as well. Jahari Long most recently played for Maryland across two seasons after two years at Seton Hall. Long is averaging career bests across the board - points, minutes, shooting the Long ball (43%, pun intended), rebounding, and assists. In fact, Long's ability to handle the ball enables Skinn to alternate whether he or Mincy play off the ball. Given they are both deadly snipers, that can make Mason hard to guard even though the Patriots are not a high volume shooting team. Fatt Hill missed the early part of the season for GMU due to a leg injury after coming over from Ball State. Hill is a wing who largely likes to get down Hill (pun not intended this time) and is one of the better Patriot defenders. The key to stopping him is to not allow him to beat you off the bounce. Masai Troutman (Northeastern) is a local product who held a GW offer out of HS. He is a very versatile player who rebounds well and can provide more floor spacing (37% from deep) while also getting to the hoop (75th in FT rate). Troutman went 9/15 from the field last week and he figures to be the X-factor for GMU tomorrow.

Three more transfers round out Mason's portal class. Malik Presley is the Bubu of their team. That is, a starter on the team but not one that is a primary weapon on offense. Presley, a Vanderbilt defect, shoots well inside the arc but he is a 46% FT shooter for his career and doesn't really do too much offensively. Still, he had 17 against Cornell back in December so the potential is there. Nick Ellington is a good complement to Allenspach inside. The Murray State transfer is more of a defensive-minded bruiser inside that can make a couple buckets near the rim (although his range is limited) and rebound at a good clip. Ellington missed Mason's last game against Loyola. Dola Adebayo previously missed a few games himself due to a foot injury but retuned a week and a half ago against Fordham. The Mount St. Mary's transfer began the season as a starter, but has been coming off the bench since his return. While his rebounding rates are still pretty good (and he shoots FTs fairly well for a big) Adebayo may be one of the few disappointments for GMU this year. He's been tentative shooting and finishing near the basket. Adebayo's defense has been solid though (+1.83 DBPR per EvanMiya).

Finally, two freshmen in Emmanuel Kanga and Devin Booker round out the rotation. While the NCAA apparently allows former NBA draft picks to return to college now, it's not that Devin Booker. Kanga is a 4-star prospect per 247Sports who has brought great energy to the team this year. He's been very efficient near the basket and has rebounded at extraordinary rates. Kanga boasts a 22.5% offensive rebound rate and a 29.7% defensive rebound rate, which would both be top 10 marks nationally if he played enough to qualify. If Skinn can get him to stick around, he will be a problem for several years in the league. On New Year's Eve against La Salle, Kanga put up 17/8 in just 18 minutes of play. Booker is more on the fringe of the rotation. The Philadelphia native has not been the most efficient shooter when he's played, but I'm sure he will continue to improve when there's more playing time available at his position.

One thing that's interesting so far in A10 play is that Mason has trailed at halftime in all three of their road games (against La Salle, Fordham, and Loyola). While this will be a home game for them, I feel it will be important for GW to get off to a good start as the Revs are not particularly great at playing from behind. Mason also plays slow, so they will look to limit possessions while GW will be looking for more in a potential comeback situation. Shot making will be important - Tre made a season high six triples against Mason last year while he was at Duquesne so maybe he can replicate that. However, the entire focus will need to be on defense. CC has to know that Mason wants to get to the FT line. Their guards love to penetrate and get to the hoop. Can GW stay in front? Unfortunately, this year's Revs team is not as good at not fouling compared to previous teams. Keeping Slim out of foul trouble is key as usual. I don't think this is the worst matchup in the world for Luke, but the interior defense really falls off a cliff when Hunger is in the game. Hopefully Bubu can play and the reason he was held out for most of the Davidson game was purely precautionary.

Projected Score: Mason 80, Washington 77. 39% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik forecasts a 43% chance at a W. ESPN predicts a 35.5% chance for GW to move to 13-6.
 

As always, thank you for your wonderful pregame writeup, Pirannah.

Our only hope is that we're fired up after our last pitiful performance. Mason has an almost entirely new roster and is 17-1, We've got more experience and the league's best center. If it comes down to coaching, we lose!

Not good on Bubu (energy) and Bevins (can shoot, rebound if he is warm) being out, though good info. Thanks.
  Feeling that obviously Mason will take care of us, given their record. Especially if they play aggressive
defense, our kryptonite it seems. And we anoint someone from as the classic career 3 point shooting
high against GW.
    But also a nagging feeling that maybe we can put it together and use our talent. And today would
be a good time. Not optimistic because GW fan, but before tipoff can still have that hope.
 

Its a shame the team keeps losing games they should win before big games. The Delaware fiasco significantly diminished my excitement about Florida, and the Davidson game has likewise diminished my excitement for this one…

Are we going to get to see the all-important GW-Mason clash, or is this preliminary game between two scrub teams going to run late?

The Stupid Bird Suit--Very Common Univerity game better not go to OT. Hope the delayed tip-off does not hurt GW´s readiness.

Found it on their streaming "site".
Nice start, but will Mason really stay as sloppy with the turnovers all game? (if so, sucks to be a northern Virginia commuter school fan). Good to see Johnson came ready to play today.

Garrett hot. 
So we ignore him open.