Anyone notice how Delaware is doing? 6-15, 2-8, good for last place in C-USA. And of course, one of their six wins this year was at Smith Center.

 

There's really enough blame to go around to not lay all of this on the coaches' feet or the players' feet.

I honestly thought this was going to be a repeat of last year's Dayton game which Jun had to miss and the team rallied in his absence.  What I learned was that there's a world of difference between how last year's team was able to survive without Jun and at least for one game, what a GW team looks like without Slim.

There are several things that CC mentioned in the press conference that made sense.  Given Fordham's size and rebounding proficiency, this was naturally the one game that you could ill afford to play without Castro.  I'll also buy that Fordham made some wild shots in the second half with the shot clock about to expire.  Yup, when it rains, it pours.  But he would also talk a bit about not having the chance to practice boxing out techniques and I'm sorry but by the time you've reached this level, everyone should know how to do this.  There were some occasions when a much taller Ram grabbed a rebound standing out of position and those are just unfortunate.  Can't coach height as they say.  But some were simply the result of failing to find a man and put a body on him.  That's fundamentals, and it's really inexcusable to witness at this level.

Another point worth reiterating (Wisconsin Colonial 1974 was all over this) was the team's unwillingness and/or failure to attack the zone from the high post.  The ball would go in, usually either to Luke or Wu, but would either then be thrown outside the arc or turned over.  Would I love to have Omar Williams back in the high post, equally skilled at making the turnaround jump shot, driving to hole and finishing, or driving and then dishing to an open shooter.  Those are your three "attack" options, and we saw virtually none of these even attempted.  

It was stated that there weren't many in-game adjustments or for that matter, an adjustment to start the game without Slim.  We can easily say that GW did not know that Slim wouldn't be playing until that morning, but this misses the point.  The point is that there never appears to be a Plan B based on circumstances.  This team only seems to be willing to play and that is to possess the goal of leading the country at Rim & 3 rate.  The problem when the defense wants you to take open midrange shots and you fail to attempt them is that this is a win for the defense.  This leaves the rim which going up against three guys 6'10" or taller proved to be very problematic, or three-point shooting where going 10-30 will more likely result in a loss than a win.  Again, what's troubling is that we don't dissent from this, ever.  We either must make our threes and/or score consistently in the paint or we are doomed.  Playing zone as much as Fordham did was their way of saying "we don't think you can beat us with 3's."  While the team is good enough to on some days, I don't believe that relying on this is a recipe for consistent success.

As for CC, I do have a different take than most of you.  First, if I can avoid it, I'd rather not be a program that's changing coaches every 3-4 years.  That's not to say it's better to hang onto the wrong coach, but is CC really wrong for this program?  I've seen enough positive strides and viable leadership to suggest that we should still feel very good to have him.

However, what I'd like to see change is more flexibility from a game-to-game strategy standpoint.  GW0509 astutely brought up how Dayton played more aggressive on-ball defense in the second half against us (playing without two of their frontcourt players) and that's a perfect example.  CC teams are ridiculously easy to scout and gameplan against because there is so little deviation from half to half, game to game, regardless of the opponent.  Most opponents require multiple plans on offense and defense, not just a single way to play regardless of opponent, score, and game circumstances.  

Quite frankly, this is where CC and his staff need to evolve.  Playing without Sim can be turned into an advantage in that we can try different things on both ends of the court that opponents will not yet have seen on film.  This is when the coaching staff really has an opportunity to prove their collective mettle.

Sure, yesterday turned out to be a pity party.  The coaches could have had an outstanding game plan and it likely would not have mattered given the mental state of the team.  Now, that party needs to be over.  SJU will not be easy but there's still enough firepower on this team to surprise the Hawks, follow-up with a Tre Dinkins homecoming game at Duquesne, and then for this team to start to feel much better about themselves.  It will require much more enthusiasm and determination from the players, but it will also require some innovation, and by that, I simply mean finding more than a single way to win or lose games, on the part of the coaching staff.  Here's to hoping that this team puts Fordham very far in the rear-view window.
  

If that's a sneak peak into a world without Slim next season, yikes. I can't imagine guys will want to stick around for that. I get that the end to the SLU game was heartbreaking, but it shows a lack of maturity that the guys were not able to move on. Last year's team had more maturity. Perhaps the added offensive firepower has led to a bit of complacency that consistent defensive effort is not necessary. It's hard to symphathize as much now that guys are getting paid.

Fordham was one of the worst possible matchups to have Slim out for, but I think it speaks to a larger issue that I had with the roster construction in the offseason. A lot was made out about how "complete" this roster is with a ton of depth, yet the team only has two centers rostered. Yes, Slim was always expected to be the featured option, but I cannot understand how you don't keep a third big man as insurance. It seems like all the high-major teams do that, but I guess that's what separates them from the mids. Why keep Moss if you're just going to redshirt him for the year? That also brings me to Luke, who is a nice guy but I struggle to understand what the staff saw from a basketball perspective. If this was supposed to be the replacement for Sean, their games are not really that similar so I don't understand it. Hunger is poor defensively, is susceptible to losing the ball when hit in the mid-post, and is just not a good stretch option. Although he took (and made) a mid-range shot yesterday - that doesn't strike me as a shot CC was happy about.

I agree with Wisconsin Colonial 1974 about his issues with not taking the shots in the middle of the zone, but it seems like CC is adamant about not taking that shot in his offense. The thing I am not understanding is where the "rim" part of the scheme comes in. It's hard to believe given the final score, but this was a 2 possession game heading into the under-8 timeout. To Woo's credit, he was able to corral a loose ball and find CJ for a layup. Fordham turned the ball over just before the media timeout. Coming out of the timeout, GW had 3 chances to get it to a one possession game. The shot selection? Missed 3 from Garrett, missed 3 from Trey, turnover by CJ. That felt like a microcosm of yesterday's performance. The guards in particular were allergic when it came to getting to the rim. CJ was the one guy who tried, but is known for missing a number of layups. He was 2/7 from inside the arc. Trey? One two point attempt. Jean? Zero two point attempts. Tre? One two point attempt.

Contrast that with Fordham in the second half. Reaves and Henry were seemingly in the lane every trip down the floor. That tells me two things: 1) GW lacks a go-to guy at the guard position who can consistently break down a defense and score, and 2) none of the guards showed any pride whatsoever staying in front of their man. With Slim down, the guards had to step up. Luke is who he is, but the guards did not follow the next man up mentality. I'm very thankful for Slim, but basketball is a guard's game, and I just feel like the guard play is subpar on this team. I found myself saying the same thing last year as well.

Yes, Fordham is big down low. It's also true that they are very disciplined and don't commit many fouls. However, we made them look like Houston or Florida with the way we were playing on offense. Not showing the ability to break down a zone 20+ games into the year is disturbing, especially after what happened against Delaware. I'll also say 10/30 from 3 is not a terrible day given the circumstances. However, shooting 14/31 from inside the arc is and really shows GW's struggles against the zone without Slim.

I'll end with some positives. Woo was a nice presence on both ends, although he's a bit small to play the 5 for long stretches. CC didn't really have much of a choice since Luke was the only option. Marshall was a bit careless with some of his turnovers, which always feels like the case with this team. Bubu also stood out, leading the team in rebounding with 6 and generating some extra chances for the team. The defense was decent in the first half, but only generating 4 steals and 2 blocks shows just how much of a drop-off there is without Slim.

Once Castro gets back, I think there's still some reason to be hopeful this year but I do have questions about next year. Since the Grammys are about to start, I'll say that Slim feels like a one-hit wonder for CC and staff. Roster construction in the offseason will be critical going into next year (although of course, there's still a lot of season to be played).
 

Thank you RaiseHigh'96 and RobSmithoasas.

One final point to piggyback on one of DMVPiranha's accurate observations.  GW guards were repeatedly beaten off the dribble by Reaves and Henry (moreso Reaves).  Our guards all have size which has certain advantages but a seemingly ongoing frustration is that we don't have good answers for the speedy 6'1" or shorter speedsters who can often get to the rim against GW without much difficulty.  At 6' 2", Tre would be the likeliest candidate but his ability to stay in front of smaller, quicker guys is not a strength of his game. Even solid defenders in GW's past like TJ Thompson, Carl Elliott and Joe McDonald were vulnerable to quicker guards.  Shawnta was the best in a GW uniform t6hat I've seen combat this even after giving up much height in the process.  It would be nice to have a shorter quicker guard who could put more of a dent into opponents blowing past GW guards at will.

Agree, very well said Mayhem.
The main issue I have is not with CC but the continuous bad decisions by the AD and President. CC was extended to 2028-2029 after last season. After 3 years as coach (now 3 1/2) he remains under .500 in conference play. As Goodman wrote after the extension was announced, "he just had a 21 win season".

Everyone in the GW community knows we have a cupcake out of conference schedule for years now. I was not a fan of extending anybody after 3 years of under .500 with an extension when his contract had another 2 years to go. Not sure what the rush was. He wasn't going anywhere with his 3 year track record here (I remember a few on this site were convinced he was going to Miami to replace Larranaga recently!)

I don't blame CC. I certainly would have jumped on the opportunity. I just hope we aren't still complaining about these constant bad decisions going into our 2nd decade of misery after this season. I will be the 1st to jump up and down if CC can somehow turn this thing around and we end up in the top half of what is turning out to be a weak year for the A-10 Conference.

It struck me that our two best 3 point shooters, Dinkins and Autry, were both somehow intimidated to even think about taking their long range shots vs. Fordham.   Autry in particular seemed to look to the bench expecting to get pulled every time he commited a foul,  missed a shot, or had a defensive lapse.  His body language was as downcast as I've seen it.   Dinkins seemed reluctant to shoot against what seemed to me to be a rather permissive Fordham zone, which invited 3 point shooting.   At his best, Dinkins range is Seth Curry-esque, yet he hesitated to let it fly vs the Rams even when open.    Especially without Slim and given our reticence to take the mid-range shot, we need to untether these two guys from distance.

jf wrote:

For now, this is the "Coulda', Shoulda', Woulda' team.
We could have had a suprising win at Dayton and George Mason.
 We should have beaten Delaware and Fordham. (And given who they lost to, could argue
a bit on McNeese State, which still is not Duke)
  We would have beaten Murray State, St Louis and Davidson (and also Mason) if we didn't blow
our chances in the final minutes or seconds.
     Good luck is generally earned on the court, unless handed by a ref. Whatever statistics say
about us being unlucky, we have earned our bad luck on the court. Most every team has injuries.
   Missing critical layups and FT's, along with inopportune shots have doomed a seeming very talented A-10 team.
 We just don't seem to have the will, moxie, focus or fundamentals to win.
  Time to right the ship vs. St. Joe's. That season salvaging reality is apparent, but hasn't sunk in.
   Hope it does at some point.

As revered as Ken Pomeroy is and as substantial are his contributions to college basketball, the one thing I believe he blew was his Luck metric.  Specifically, not the metric itself, but the fact that he refers to the metric as Luck.

We can all speculate as to what constitutes true luck.  A key injury or injuries.  An insanely hot or cold night at the free throw line.  A seldom used player who the opponent barely prepared for goes off.  

In KenPom's world, luck is analyzed by taking a team's offensive and defensive efficiency, adjusted to the caliber of competition, and then projecting what this team's record "should" be as opposed to what it actually is.  So a team like GW, with strong efficiency ratings particularly on offense, resulting in many double digit wins along with several very close losses, is said to have very bad luck (amongst the worst in the nation).  GW is 1-6 in games whose outcomes weren't decided until fairly late in the contest.  That means they are 12-3 in all other games.

Jf does a nice job in pointing out that missing critical layups and free throws along with inopportune shots should be regarded as something other than bad luck.  So too should "team indecisiveness and/or execution" in the final moments of tense games.  You could refer to these areas as symptoms, problems, deficiencies, etc.  But, not bad luck.

Imo, when watching our guys play, the only thing more annoying than analytics, is listening to Patsos drivel. So after hitting the mute button, there are certain things I look for:  Is this going to be a high energy effort or a lackluster one?  Is this going to be a sloppy mess, or well executed connectedness? All too often the ballhandling is loose, meaning either a pass is at a teammates feet, not in stride, or requiring a stretch to reach it. Good threes come from good passes.
All sports are based on fundamentals in their simplest form.  Their are many sayings: Success is where preparation meets opportunity. Same for luck. When you analyze you paralyze.
Is it bad luck when an inbounds pass after a timeout is stolen? Or is it a preparation issue.
I honestly cringe even when we bring the ball up unguarded.  The passes between the guards is plain old sloppy.  How does an offense stand a chance if that's how it's initiated.  Please handle the ball like you own it and nobody can take it away from you.  Then maybe the luck will change. Let's go!!!!


 

I've been watching the Revs a lot this year and I've also watched quite a few non-GW A10 games.  Is GW really 13 points better than Fordham as DMV's predicted score says? Also, I read what everyone has been talking about regarding how this team will do without Castro.  It's a shame he's out, but the next few games will tell everyone an awful lot about what kind of players Caputo has been able to bring in.  Seems like there's no shortage of talent.  I guess it'll become clear how much connectivity and heart these players have.  Good learning moment for them and the Coaching staff.