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GW returns home to face Rhode Island following a series of close road losses without Rafael Castro.
Rhode Island has a Quad 1 win and 3 Quad 2 Road wins over George Mason, Dayton and Davidson, they seem to be particularly tough on the road, and beat Richmond today
Castro update? Predictions? Line?
Last edited by The Dude (2/10/2026 9:06 pm)
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Rhode Island Rams
Date: Tuesday February 10th, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Charles E. Smith Center (Washington, DC)
TV: Monumental Sports Network/ESPN+
Ranks: 113th (KenPom), 133rd (Bart Torvik), 137th (Haslametrics), 112th (EvanMiya), 138th (Sports Illustrated)
2024-25 Record: 18-13, 7-11 (T-10th in A10)
2025-26 Projected Record: 18-13, 9-9 (T-6th in A10)
NET Ranking: 118th (Q3 Game)
Head-to-Head: 36-31, and GW has won five of the last six matchups.
GW prevailed 75-67 in last year's meeting in Kingston. The Revs took an eight point lead into halftime by making enough shots inside the arc and led by as many as 15 points in the game. To Rhody's credit, the Rams erased the deficit early in the second half and GW had just a three point lead going into the final media timeout. It was refreshing to see that the Revs actually closed the game well, outscoring URI 11-6 in the final minutes. It was a rough shooting game for both teams, who went a combined 6/42 (14%) from behind the arc. Really horrendous stuff. GW played good defense though and out-assisted the home team 20-11. Rhody did hold the rebounding advantage (44-37) but it wasn't enough. Slim led the team with 16 points, Sean Hansen had 12 points, Tricky had a 10 point/10 rebound double-double, and Jacoi scored 10 off the bench.
The last matchup at the Smith Center in 2024 was not a pretty one for GW. It was game 5 of the 12 game losing streak. Things started out decently for the Buff & Blue. When I pulled up the box score again for the game, I was surprised to see GW have the lead at halftime 37-35 given the game ended in a 23 point home loss to a middling Rhody squad. The Revs completely fell apart after halftime, putting up little resistance at the rim. URI was just 4/16 from deep for the game, but in the second half they were repeatedly beating GW down the floor and getting easy layups. They also won the rebounding battle pretty decisively, 42-31. Jun finished with a game-high 23 points and Max chipped in 18 points but it was a very rough performance from GW. 17% from 3 and 53% from the FT line at home is never a good thing.
Offensive Efficiency: 154th (KenPom), 204th (Bart Torvik), 186th (Haslametrics), 155th (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 82nd (KenPom), 88th (Bart Torvik), 87th (Haslametrics), 83rd (EvanMiya)
Pace: 277th (KenPom), 267th (Bart Torvik), 269th (Haslametrics), 239th (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 162nd
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 66th
Rim & 3 Rate: 86% (87th)
Strengths (2025-26 Season):
Steals Per Game: 8.9 SPG (33rd; 2nd in A10)
Turnovers Forced Per Game: 14.3 TO/G (43rd; 2nd in A10)
Scoring Defense: 68.1 PPG (50th; 4th in A10)
Fastbreak Points: 12.91 PPG (80th; 6th in A10)
Turnover Margin: +1.7 TO/G (88th; 3rd in A10)
Weaknesses (2025-26 Season):
Scoring Offense: 72.5 PPG (268th; 11th in A10)
Three Point Percentage: 31.4% (307th; 10th in A10)
Rebounds Per Game: 32.78 RPG (310th; 12th in A10)
Three Point Percentage Defense: 36.2% (325th; 12th in A10)
Assist/Turnover Ratio: 0.9 AST/TO (334th; 14th in A10)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game: 22 DRPG (334th; 14th in A10)
Assists Per Game: 11.3 APG (335th; 14th in A10)
Projected Starting Lineup:
#20 G Myles Corey (Graduate Student; Ontario, CA) - 13.8 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 4.3 apg, 1.4 spg; 43% FG, 28% 3-PT, 66% FT per 31.1 mpg/32 GP at South Alabama last season
#5 G Jonah Hinton (RS Junior; Chicago, IL) - 8.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.7 apg; 35% FG, 33% 3-PT, 79% FT per 28.3 mpg/34 GP at St. Bonaventure last season
#23 G Tyler Cochran (Graduate Student; Chicago, IL) - 14.4 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.9 spg; 50% FG, 35% 3-PT, 70% FT per 29.7 mpg/32 GP at Toledo during 2023-24 season
#0 G/F Jahmere Tripp (Junior; Brooklyn, NY) - 7.9 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.2 spg; 42% FG, 34% 3-PT, 70% FT per 20.3 mpg/29 GP at Fordham last season
#40 F Keeyan Itejere (Graduate Student; Knightdale, NC) - 7.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.6 bpg; 59% FG, 58% FT per 26.9 mpg/33 GP at Northern Kentucky last season
Key Bench Players:
#22 G RJ Johnson (Graduate Student; Matthews, NC) - 13.8 ppg, 2 rpg, 4.5 apg; 42% FG, 33% 3-PT, 79% FT per 35.2 mpg/29 GP at Charleston Southern last season
#8 F Alex Crawford (RS Senior; Chula Vista, CA) - 11.5 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1 spg; 49% FG, 28% 3-PT, 70% FT per 32.6 mpg/30 GP at Fresno State last season
#7 G Jalen Harper (Freshman; Philadelphia, PA)
#21 G Damone King (RS Freshman; Louisville, KY)
#55 F Drissa Traore (RS Senior; New York, NY) - 2.8 ppg, 2.5 rpg; 42% FG, 24% 3-PT, 63% FT per 12.5 mpg/31 GP at Rhode Island last season
Key Losses:
Sebastian Thomas (Graduated; Providence, RI) - 17.2 ppg, 4 rpg, 6 apg, 2.2 spg; 44% FG, 30% 3-PT, 70% FT per 35.7 mpg/29 GP
David Green (Transferred to Tulsa; Apopka, FL) - 14.2 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 1 apg; 48% FG, 43% 3-PT, 76% FT per 27.9 mpg/28 GP
Jaden House (Graduated; Richmond, VA) - 11.5 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 1.4 apg; 45% FG, 28% 3-PT, 82% FT per 27.5 mpg/31 GP
Jamarques Lawrence (Transferred to Nebraska; Plainfield, NJ) - 9.9 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 2.5 apg; 42% FG, 39% 3-PT, 87% FT per 28.8 mpg/31 GP
Javonte Brown (Graduated; Toronto, Canada) - 8.1 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.5 bpg; 66% FG, 59% FT per 20.6 mpg/31 GP
David Fuchs (Transferred to San Francisco; Vienna, Austria) - 7.4 ppg, 7.5 rpg; 59% FG, 29% 3-PT, 59% FT per 20.7 mpg/29 GP
Tyonne Farrell (Transferred to Morehead State; Baltimore, MD) - 5.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1 apg; 44% FG, 50% 3-PT, 49% FT per 18.6 mpg/18 GP
Preview:
The Atlantic 10 saw quite a few coaching changes following the 2021-22 college basketball season. There were six openings, with Davidson, Fordham, GW, La Salle, UMass, and Rhode Island all making moves. Davidson opened up because the elder McKillop retired, and Fordham had an opening because Kyle Neptune got the Villanova job (we all saw how that played out lol). The other four openings were a result of the previous coach being let go. There was palpable buzz particularly at the New England schools at the time about the hires that were made. Frank Martin managed to take South Carolina, a non-basketball school to the Final Four just six years prior and even guided the Gamecocks to a respectable .500 record in his final year. If that doesn't sound impressive, keep in mind that Lamont Paris has had just one good years to three awful ones in Columbia.
Similarly, URI bringing in Archie Miller got a lot of attention. Miller was able to make the NCAA tournament with Dayton four years in a row from 2014-2017 and while he didn't have the best tenure at Indiana afterwards it was not like any of those Hoosier teams were outright awful. Low ceiling maybe, but a highish floor. I also think people make the Indiana job out to be a lot better of a job than it actually is in 2026. Anyways, the new era of Rhody basketball brought a lot of excitement, with perhaps a chance of getting back to the Dan Hurley days after a forgettable David Cox era. The folks in Kingston certainly seemed to go all-in with how much they are paying Miller, and the fan support is fairly good for an A10 school.
However, for one reason or another things have not worked out. Miller is just 23-41 (.359) in conference play through three and a half seasons. Perhaps the success doesn't apply to the new era of CBB. The AD who hired Archie, Thorr Bjorn, stepped down back in November to funnily enough take a senior deputy AD position at UMass, his alma mater. Miller definitely figures to be on the hot seat - not only has he not won at the level expected, but the new AD that comes in will want to hire their guy. It's just a mess all around, because Bjorn was promoted to university vice president this past summer. His abrupt departure must have come as somewhat of a surprise. Bjorn now has to contend with a UMass football program that went winless this past season and a Minutemen basketball program that has been middling so far in their move to the MAC. I'm not sure how long of a leash Martin has either, but to be a bit fair to him the top of the MAC is perhaps the best it's been in a very long time.
It's anybody's guess where URI will go from here. I don't get the sense they are chasing FBS football like UMass did, but I'm also not sure what the revenue sharing/NIL situation looks like since they still do have football. One thing that Archie can point to is a gradual uptick in conference wins, from 5 to 6 to 7. Rhody sits at 5-5 currently in the league, so perhaps that trend can continue. I'm just not convinced it's enough to save Archie though. Miller's first team featured Bray Freeman, so I'm not sure more needs to be said about how dysfunctional that team was. That squad was brutally bad on offense, not being able to make shots from really anywhere on the court.
His teams since then have been better offensively, but only barely above average at best. The 2023-24 squad played faster but the improvements on offense came with a regression in defensive ability. URI could not make opponents uncomfortable or turn teams over whatsoever. Last year's squad played even faster, and was perhaps the most well-rounded team Miller had yet. There was perhaps a bit of luck with opponent three point shooting (just 31.5%) despite Rhody surrendering an average number of looks from distance. Last year's team started off really well in OOC play (11-1 against a weak schedule) but faltered in the second half of the year.
This year's team has easily been the best defensive unit Miller has had since taking over. The Rams rank 82nd in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Archie has slowed things down quite a bit, making teams have to use most of the shot clock in order to get a good shot. Rhody is 342nd in defensive average possession length. Unlike previous teams, this year's team excels at generating turnovers, ranking 21st nationally in defensive turnover percentage. That has come with a bit of gambling, as Rhody is also 322nd in defensive free throw rate. The Rams also contest fairly well at the rim (86th in defensive 2P%, 38th in block percentage) but have been torched from deep. D1 foes are shooting over 36% from 3, which is 302nd nationally. They do miss the services of David Fuchs a bit on the defensive glass as well. The Austrian was 93rd nationally in defensive boards per game.
Offensively, it's what you would expect from an Archie team. Attacking the rim, crashing the glass, and trying to hunt shots before the opposing team can get set. Rhode Island is top 100 in free throw rate for the eighth straight year, as that was also a strength of Cox teams. The guards operate heavily in isolation, as the team is just 320th in assist percentage. Losing a guy like Sebastian Thomas hurts, as he led the league in assists per game (17th nationally) while barely coming off the floor (45th in mpg). Thomas also led the league and was 22nd in the nation in steals per game. RI takes more threes than they should, considering they're just 31% from distance. For as good as the Rams are at generating turnovers, they give back a number of those opportunities with their own leaky ball handling (304th in offensive turnover percentage). During non-con play, URI lost to McNeese like us and finished 9-4 overall.
Miller had his work cut out for him coming into the year, as URI returns only one player from last year's rotation in Drissa Traore. The NY native spent two years at St. John's before coming to Kingston last season. Traore is not much of an offensive weapon, having shot just 25% from deep in his career. He can rebound a bit in limited time and has good size but that's about it. It's been over a month since he last scored (1/7 against La Salle) and he's not a high-usage guy on this year's team.
The eight-man transfer class consists of two players who were in the A10 last year in Jonah Hinton (St. Bonaventure) and Jahmere Tripp (Fordham). Hinton is billed as a three-point shooter (76th in three point attempts, 62nd in threes per game) but he's been a mediocre, hit-or-miss option in his time in the league. He's also not particularly efficient when run off the line (37% from the field overall). Still, on a team with not a lot of passing Hinton can provide a bit of playmaking. Unfortunately, that's canceled out by the turnovers he commits. Hinton has missed the last three games for URI and will likely remain questionable tomorrow. Some sources are saying leg injury, but I've also seen it reported as an ankle issue in others. In any case, he'll probably be back starting when he returns. Hinton had just four points on 1/6 shooting when GW faced him up in Olean exactly a year ago.
Tripp, who was teammates with CJ at Our Savior Lutheran in HS, is having a fairly productive year with URI following two okay campaigns with another Rams squad in Fordham. He's always been a pretty good rebounder, multi-positional defender, and this year he's shooting a career best 41% from 3. GW will need to respect his three point shot, especially since Tripp has shot 10/17 (59%) from deep in the last two weeks - with at least two makes in each game. That's also opened up Tripp's driving ability, where he's got to the line 32 times in the past four contests. He entered the starting lineup during that time and Rhody has gone 3-1 since with a lone loss at Duquesne. In URI's last two road contests, Tripp did foul out so GW could find some success going at him. In two games against the Revs last year, he combined to score just seven points on 3/8 shooting.
The headliner addition in the offseason was Tyler Cochran, who sat out last year at Minnesota after his nationwide MAC tour (Northern Illinois, Ball State, Toledo). Cochran began his CBB career back in 2019-20 before COVID. The thing that sticks out is his defensive ability, where he uses his 6'4", 222 lb frame to his advantage. Cochran averages 3 steals a game, which ranks second in the nation behind Javontae Campbell of Bowling Green (another MAC school!). He previously won MAC co-defensive player of the year back in 2023-24 with Toledo. The Rockets have never been known for their defense, which really speaks to his impact that he was able to win the award. Anyways, Cochran will crash the glass and can orchestrate the offense somewhat. Outside of his FT shooting (career high 75%) his shooting efficiencies are down across the board but he will get his points. Cochran has scored in double figures in seven straight, including a season best 34 point, 10 rebound performance against Richmond on Saturday. In two of the last three games, he's got to the line 17(!) times.
California natives Myles Corey and Alex Crawford have combined for 40 starts this year. Corey began his career at the D2 level at William Jessup University prior to playing at South Alabama last season. Both schools interestingly have red, white, and blue as their main team colors. Corey is a penetrating guard who is not much of a shooter (career 26% from 3) but can convert near the rim (66% inside the arc). I feel like his playmaking abilities aren't being maximized enough at URI (just 1.9 apg), considering he averaged 4.3 apg last season in the Sun Belt.
Crawford, who began his career at Stetson back in 2021-22, put up numbers at Fresno last year against good Mountain West competition. However, that Bulldog squad was extremely dysfunctional. Players betting on games/player stats and driving recklessly were only some of the issues. Crawford is a decent rebounder, but is a subpar offensive weapon. Per EvanMiya, he has a -2.34 OBPR, which is the worst on the team. Somehow he's 9/24 from the FT line on the year despite being a career 70% FT shooter prior to this season. Outside of an 11 point effort at Davidson, Crawford has been fairly quiet in league play.
Forwards Keeyan Itejere and Mouhamed Sow were brought in to protect the rim up front. I believe Archie was banking on Javonte Brown (76th in blocks per game) getting an additional year to help out in that area, but his waiver was denied. Itejere originally committed to Texas out of HS before following Shaka to Marquette and playing a small role in Milwaukee. In an expanded role at Northern Kentucky, Itejere finished at the rim at a good clip, rebounded well on both ends, and blocked 104 shots in two years (85th nationally this year in bpg). He's not a true big, but has great hops and decent agility. All his work offensively is done at the rim. Sow spent three years at Saint Peter's. He also rebounds well but has more shooting range compared to Itejere. Sow has not played since mid-November and is expected to miss the rest of the year with a leg injury.
Charleston Southern transfer RJ Johnson rounds out the portal class. In the Big South, he was a high-usage option but not particularly efficient. Johnson is good at creating for others (leads team with 3 apg) and is 94% at the FT line this year but that pretty much covers his strengths. He can explode on occasion but it's been infrequent this season and he is not a particularly good defender (-0.7 DBPR on EvanMiya). In fact, he's the only non-freshman in the rotation to have a negative rating on that side of the ball.
Finally, freshmen Jalen Harper, Damone King, and Barrett Loer round out the roster. Harper is a pretty good shooter from Philadelphia that plays an off-ball role for the team. King, who redshirted last year, hails from Kentucky and has appeared in 22 contests for URI this season. He is more of a spot minute option for the team playing behind a number of guards in the rotation. Loer is a wing from Massachusetts who will only see minutes if the game is a blowout.
For GW to have success in this game, it will start by taking care of the ball. Coming off a 16 turnover game against Duquesne does not strike me as a good sign against an aggressive Rhody unit. I'm getting flashbacks to the Dayton game. As was the case in the previous Duquesne contest, I don't think finishing at the rim against URI is an impossibility, despite them having a bit of rim protection. GW should have success from deep, but the Revs have been fairly decent from 3 during this losing streak and it hasn't got them over the top. Outside of turnovers, the question will be whether the team has any grit and show some pride guarding penetration and not allowing their man to blow past them. URI will happily take threes, but they really want to get to the rim and FT line. GW will be in trouble if the Rams are able to consistently break down their perimeter shell.
Projected Score: GW 78, URI 72. 69% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik forecasts a 79% chance at a W. ESPN predicts a 73.4% chance for GW to move to 14-11.
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Excellent preview, as always by DMV.
Knew a home game was coming up.
Didn't bother yet to look up whether game would be tomorrow or Wednesday.
Basically, it's gone from anticipation: "there's a game!" Meaning that nothing else is of such
importance.
To a resigned obligation: "there's a game."
Like an unpleasant chore done out of obligation and support.
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jf wrote:
Excellent preview, as always by DMV.
Knew a home game was coming up.
Didn't bother yet to look up whether game would be tomorrow or Wednesday.
Basically, it's gone from anticipation: "there's a game!" Meaning that nothing else is of such
importance.
To a resigned obligation: "there's a game."
Like an unpleasant chore done out of obligation and support.
Agree with all this. I was thinking today that this season is shaping up to be the most disappointing in my 35 years as a fan, in terms of early season expectations versus how things turned out. Maybe someone can remind me of a more disappointing season, to help get me just a bit more excited about these last 4 home games…
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DC Native wrote:
jf wrote:
Excellent preview, as always by DMV.
Knew a home game was coming up.
Didn't bother yet to look up whether game would be tomorrow or Wednesday.
Basically, it's gone from anticipation: "there's a game!" Meaning that nothing else is of such
importance.
To a resigned obligation: "there's a game."
Like an unpleasant chore done out of obligation and support.
Agree with all this. I was thinking today that this season is shaping up to be the most disappointing in my 35 years as a fan, in terms of early season expectations versus how things turned out. Maybe someone can remind me of a more disappointing season, to help get me just a bit more excited about these last 4 home games…
2016, by a mile. That team had made an NCAA Tourney 2 years earlier with a Core of Sophomores, they were now Seniors, and added 2 future NBA players to the mix, Ty Cav and Yuta. Beat UVA ranked 6th in the nation, ascended to the top 25, looked like not just a tourney team but a team that would win a few Tourney games, and seemed like a virtual tourney lock after the OOC.
AND then... the A10 Slate where we lost to a terrible Saint Louis team, lost at home to bad Richmond team, fell off the bubble entirely.
In contrast this year's team looked exactly as expected through the Saint Louis game and before the Casto injury, top 60s computer rankings. Top 4 in the league, as predicted.
We look much worse without Castro, expectedly.
That team had 3 future NBA players and a core of 4 year starters
this team in contrast is a collection of almost entirely transfers, most of them brand new, and that was playing to expectations before the injury of the one true star Castro.
The other team that comes to mind if 2007-08. We had just made 3 straight NCAA Tourneys, we did lose a lot of players from the prior squad but returned Mo Rice and what looked like good talent, and we won.....9 games. 9!
A dropoff looked likely, a dropoff from the NCAA Tourney to 9 wins under Hobbs seemed hard to believe at the time
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The Dude wrote:
DC Native wrote:
jf wrote:
Excellent preview, as always by DMV.
Knew a home game was coming up.
Didn't bother yet to look up whether game would be tomorrow or Wednesday.
Basically, it's gone from anticipation: "there's a game!" Meaning that nothing else is of such
importance.
To a resigned obligation: "there's a game."
Like an unpleasant chore done out of obligation and support.
Agree with all this. I was thinking today that this season is shaping up to be the most disappointing in my 35 years as a fan, in terms of early season expectations versus how things turned out. Maybe someone can remind me of a more disappointing season, to help get me just a bit more excited about these last 4 home games…
2016, by a mile. That team had made an NCAA Tourney 2 years earlier with a Core of Sophomores, they were now Seniors, and added 2 future NBA players to the mix, Ty Cav and Yuta. Beat UVA ranked 6th in the nation, ascended to the top 25, looked like not just a tourney team but a team that would win a few Tourney games, and seemed like a virtual tourney lock after the OOC.
AND then... the A10 Slate where we lost to a terrible Saint Louis team, lost at home to bad Richmond team, fell off the bubble entirely.
In contrast this year's team looked exactly as expected through the Saint Louis game and before the Casto injury, top 60s computer rankings. Top 4 in the league, as predicted.
We look much worse without Castro, expectedly.
That team had 3 future NBA players and a core of 4 year starters
this team in contrast is a collection of almost entirely transfers, most of them brand new, and that was playing to expectations before the injury of the one true star Castro.
The other team that comes to mind if 2007-08. We had just made 3 straight NCAA Tourneys, we did lose a lot of players from the prior squad but returned Mo Rice and what looked like good talent, and we won.....9 games. 9!
A dropoff looked likely, a dropoff from the NCAA Tourney to 9 wins under Hobbs seemed hard to believe at the time
I thought about the 2016 team, and it is certainly close. I remember being very disappointed after the OOC to be average in the A10 and miss the NCAAs. But that team at least had a winning A10 record, and the NIT run, although it doesn't mean as much to me as it does to some on this board, was very fun and helped to assuage some of the disappointment. There are only a handful of teams each year that have the privilege of winning their final game of the season...
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The 2016 season was disappointing until we won the NIT.
But to find out why the earlier disappointment, reread Deadspin. And look at a roughly $3 million
settlement by GW--and the mysterious disappearance of an AD midseason.
We all know why 2016 was invoked and revived on this thread.
Yes, sure we all prefer losing to the likes of Delaware and Murray State and being on the losing
end of a long string of winnable games. To sitting in Madsion Square Garden with the sign "GW NIT
champs" on the iconic scoreboard. And the Empire State building said to be lit up in Buff and Blue to honor us.
And as DC Native, noted aptly, ending the season on a win. That was a great feeling.
Even if we win big tomorrow and those attending the game successfully dodge road closures,
it's not an Era of Good Feeling.
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I think the comps to the 2016 are valid even if they come with the baggage of stale arguments on this board about the crap that happened in the subsequent off-season.
That 2016 team should have been what SLU is today. They had more talent than this year’s SLU and had talent that had played together for 4 years. They beat UVA and were ranked for two weeks before blowing it against DePaul. FWIW, this season’s team is actually the exact same in KenPom at this date than that team was even though we’d all probably take that team over this one.
I think what is similar to ML and CC is that all of their teams seem to lose steam as the season goes on. The A10 is increasingly becoming a 1 and a 1/2 bid league and the need for a coach to raise the level of his roster over the course of a season is more important than ever.
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GW0509 wrote:
I think the comps to the 2016 are valid even if they come with the baggage of stale arguments on this board about the crap that happened in the subsequent off-season.
That 2016 team should have been what SLU is today. They had more talent than this year’s SLU and had talent that had played together for 4 years. They beat UVA and were ranked for two weeks before blowing it against DePaul. FWIW, this season’s team is actually the exact same in KenPom at this date than that team was even though we’d all probably take that team over this one.
I think what is similar to ML and CC is that all of their teams seem to lose steam as the season goes on. The A10 is increasingly becoming a 1 and a 1/2 bid league and the need for a coach to raise the level of his roster over the course of a season is more important than ever.
2016 was also the culmination of years of anticipation that seemed to be validated by the UVA win, the obvious talent on the roster as you note, national ranking etc, and then a few weeks later after a series of brutal loses far more dissapointing than this year. Before the Castro injury, GW was exactly where we expected to be (higher actually by about 20 spots from the pre-season KenPom:
A10 teams:
#54 Dayton (Off: #67, Def: #37, Pace: #314)
#60 VCU (Off: #97, Def: #24, Pace: #10)
#65 Saint Louis (Off: #68, Def: #64, Pace: #105)
#81 George Washington (Off: #53, Def: #115, Pace: #135)
#91 George Mason (Off: #103, Def: #78, Pace: #338)
#99 Loyola Chicago (Off: #107, Def: #96, Pace: #212)
If you want dissapointing look at Loyola past and present rankings!
so even AFTER losing Castro to injury and dropping 20 spots in the KenPom we are EXACTLY where we started the year #82! and as GW0509 notes that was amazinly where that 2016 was on this date too, when it had better talent than this Saint Louis team does, agreed. 3 Four year starters, 3 NBA players, and we're losing to terrible teams that year like DePaul?
This year's team isn't even dissapointing it spent most of the year 20-30 spots ahead of expectations. This squad also feels like the beginning, the 2016 felt like and proved to be the culmination.
One last thing, the A10 hasn't changed much in 10 years, the CRITERIA for making the Dance is what has changed, rigged to keep out non Power 5s, 10 years ago this 21-3 Mason team would have been dancing, now they have zero chance of an at large bid at present with a 1-2 record vs "Quads 1 and 2." So the current landscape for non Power 5s is you have to win virutally every game AND you have to somehow pile up Quad 1 and 2 games on your schedule AND you have to win most of those too or else forget your chances.
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No Castro.
Not ideal against a team that guards the rim and crashes the glass.
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Anyone who truly believes that 2016 was among our most disappointing seasons, the season culminating with an NIT Championship, was definitely not following this team before Mike Jarvis. How does a 1-27 season sound to you? How does never realistically competing for a conference championship despite having a 10 year NBA player in Mike Brown sound to you? And even if you are a post-Jarvis arrival, explain to me how this year is somehow more disappointing than MoJo's third and final season (DJ Williams, anyone?).
Next point, can we finally put to bed the myth that the Empire State Building was lit up in honor of GW winning the NIT championship? I get that many of us thought it at the time but it was later reported that this was due to some MTV or VH1 initiative (Save the Planet or Save Music or Save Something) and had zero to do with GWU.
As for the Rhode Island game, I'd like to see one thing tonight. Remember just two days ago when the Seahawks came out throwing? This was done to eventually open up the run game and K. Walker took advantage with 27 carries and an MVP award. So while we are in agreement that GW needs to make a healthy percentage of 3's particularly if Slim is still sidelined, the way to GET GOOD THREES is to first prove that you don't need to rely on them. So, you drive the lane and work the ball down low and prove that you can legitimately score in the lane (or God forbid, from mid-range). Then, the URI defense will undoubtedly sag to protect the rim further, which should result in GW getting more 3's in rhythm as well as open looks. What do you have to lose? Let's try this and see how it goes.
At the risk of sounding greatly redundant, another outstanding preview by DMVPiranha.
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Gwmayhem wrote:
Anyone who truly believes that 2016 was among our most disappointing seasons, the season culminating with an NIT Championship, was definitely not following this team before Mike Jarvis. How does a 1-27 season sound to you? How does never realistically competing for a conference championship despite having a 10 year NBA player in Mike Brown sound to you? And even if you are a post-Jarvis arrival, explain to me how this year is somehow more disappointing than MoJo's third and final season (DJ Williams, anyone?).
I mean, yeah, I only came to GW in 2005, so my frame of reference is limited to maybe spring of '05 when I knew I was going here and watched us in the tournament against Georgia Tech.
I think a disappointing season is one that comes with expectations, exceeding those expectations initially, before being brought back down to earth. We started Mojo's final season with a KenPom of 192. That does not scream a season with "expectations." It's not like Loyola this year that started at 99 and dropped to 297 before conference play.
Again, the *result* of winning the NIT isn't a disappointment. Frankly, it was pretty cool the team decided to pull an Indians in "Major League" and win the whole damn thing after getting the NIT bid. However, everything leading up to the NIT was absolutely a disappointment and frankly, it wouldn't even be up for debate had Mitola not made that floater in the final seconds. Everything about that Hofstra game was a microcosm of that entire second half of that season. We scored 5 points in the final 6 minutes of that game. This was immediately following the SJU game in the A10 tournament where we blew a 14-point halftime lead.
On December 19, 2015, the 15-16 team was #39 on KenPom (which is better than what SLU was this season) and ranked 21st in the polls. We then proceeded to drop 52 spots by February 17th and finished 11-7 in conference and missed the NCAA tournament. Maybe it's just our lowered expectations as GW fans, but I think if you gave that outcome to a Dayton, VCU, SLU, etc. fan and asked them if they'd consider it a disappointment to completely miss the NCAA tournament after starting the season 10-1 with a win over the #6 team in the country and being ranked as high as #20, they'd say yes 10 times out of 10. In fact, SLU just fired a guy like Lonergan in Travis Ford precisely because he would take teams that should have made the NCAA tournament and turned them into NIT bids or worse. Dayton wants to fire Anthony Grant for taking his team from KP #54 to #90 currently. Even if Dayton goes on to win the NIT, I don't see Dayton fans saying it turns the season into a "success."
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Gwmayhem wrote:
Anyone who truly believes that 2016 was among our most disappointing seasons, the season culminating with an NIT Championship, was definitely not following this team before Mike Jarvis. How does a 1-27 season sound to you? How does never realistically competing for a conference championship despite having a 10 year NBA player in Mike Brown sound to you? And even if you are a post-Jarvis arrival, explain to me how this year is somehow more disappointing than MoJo's third and final season (DJ Williams, anyone?).
Next point, can we finally put to bed the myth that the Empire State Building was lit up in honor of GW winning the NIT championship? I get that many of us thought it at the time but it was later reported that this was due to some MTV or VH1 initiative (Save the Planet or Save Music or Save Something) and had zero to do with GWU.
As for the Rhode Island game, I'd like to see one thing tonight. Remember just two days ago when the Seahawks came out throwing? This was done to eventually open up the run game and K. Walker took advantage with 27 carries and an MVP award. So while we are in agreement that GW needs to make a healthy percentage of 3's particularly if Slim is still sidelined, the way to GET GOOD THREES is to first prove that you don't need to rely on them. So, you drive the lane and work the ball down low and prove that you can legitimately score in the lane (or God forbid, from mid-range). Then, the URI defense will undoubtedly sag to protect the rim further, which should result in GW getting more 3's in rhythm as well as open looks. What do you have to lose? Let's try this and see how it goes.
At the risk of sounding greatly redundant, another outstanding preview by DMVPiranha.
Agreed 100% on 2016. Ridiculous that a team that won the NIT was the most disappointing team at GW.
On the other hand, if anybody knows disappointment it's the Dude. It has to be disappointing year after year to watch "America's Greatest Coach" fall short.
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Forgive me if I missed something regarding Castros injury. Has there been an interview with him or his medical team giving some idea of a treatment care plan? My puzzlement comes from hearing about an overheard "hairline fracture" in the lounge. Do we know what bone? Is that what is being treated? By being casted with 100% non-weight-bearing on a scooter usually means 6-8 weeks recovery. Then comes rehab for some more time. "Foot injuries" in big men are notoriously challenging. There are a few famous names (Oden, Walton, Bowie) who had their careers impacted bigtime. Can anyone please tell us exactly what the injury being treated is? Of course we wish him a full and speedy recovery. For me it adds to the frustration.
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All fair GW0509. I recall asking the question of whether a first round NCAA loss would have been preferable to winning the NIT and the responses were generally split down the middle. It's easy to make a case either way.
I do think that one's longevity as a GW fan weighs heavily into this answer. As a student, there was literally zero hope of my witnessing a conference tournament championship or receiving an at large bid. I believe GW never reached a conference tournament semifinal (in the Eastern 8/Atlantic 10) until the 1990's. We were among the ugly stepchildren to Villanova, Pitt, and West Virginia, and then largely to UMASS, Temple and Xavier. It's not that these GW teams were awful but that they were mediocre at best. It's one thing to go 30+ years in between NCAA appearances but it's another to not even come close throughout the vast majority of these seasons.
So you came in during an NCAA season (talk about disappointment..how else to describe the FT shooting in that Georgia Tech game) in the midst of 4 NCAA appearances in 6 seasons. Your expectation for the program is rightfully higher. By contrast, I am wholly appreciative of any GW team that can even contend for a spot in the dance since I was part of the long suffering (though not as long as LSF) where this notion wouldn't even qualify as a pipe dream.
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H&R..71 wrote:
Forgive me if I missed something regarding Castros injury. Has there been an interview with him or his medical team giving some idea of a treatment care plan? My puzzlement comes from hearing about an overheard "hairline fracture" in the lounge. Do we know what bone? Is that what is being treated? By being casted with 100% non-weight-bearing on a scooter usually means 6-8 weeks recovery. Then comes rehab for some more time. "Foot injuries" in big men are notoriously challenging. There are a few famous names (Oden, Walton, Bowie) who had their careers impacted bigtime. Can anyone please tell us exactly what the injury being treated is? Of course we wish him a full and speedy recovery. For me it adds to the frustration.
I hate to provide this update because it is a non-answer. The answer is known but for competitive reasons it cannot be disclosed. The answer is therefore you will see him when and if you see him. I would say this is more like the NHL injury disclosures. It's a lower body injury and it is week to week.
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The 1-27 was not supposed to be very good, and then got whomped by injuries (played at nationally-ranked UNM with only six players healthy, for example). The 2016 team was supposed to be good, was very talented, and then played itself down to getting relegated to the NIT, before finding a second wind and raising a national championship banner. "Disappionting" is, by definition, failing to meet expectations, something the 2016 team did spectacularly and the 1-27 team did but not by much.
As for this season, I was always skeptical of the people talking up the team and raising the possibility of a trip to March Madness, but I certainly did not expect losses like what we saw vs Deleware and Fordham. Injuries have been a factor (in addition to Castro being out now, how many times have other regulars been pre-game scratches? Too many), but this team has also underperformed. Period. Worse than a team that should have gone on an NCAA tournament run but didn´t get a bid? Maybe not and that is a debate we can have sometime after the (seemingly inevitable) early exit in Pittsburgh. Then again, the 2016 team overcame its internal issues and bottled lightning in the NIT, maybe this team can go to the A10´s and do the same thing.
So tonight, hopefully we see improvement from players like BuBu and Hunger (as well as better game management) that turn this game in to a nice clambake/calamari feast. And if not, it is Carnival tonight and you can switch over to live feeds from Rio for dancing or Trinidad for great music and be well entertained.
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GWRising wrote:
H&R..71 wrote:
Forgive me if I missed something regarding Castros injury. Has there been an interview with him or his medical team giving some idea of a treatment care plan? My puzzlement comes from hearing about an overheard "hairline fracture" in the lounge. Do we know what bone? Is that what is being treated? By being casted with 100% non-weight-bearing on a scooter usually means 6-8 weeks recovery. Then comes rehab for some more time. "Foot injuries" in big men are notoriously challenging. There are a few famous names (Oden, Walton, Bowie) who had their careers impacted bigtime. Can anyone please tell us exactly what the injury being treated is? Of course we wish him a full and speedy recovery. For me it adds to the frustration.
I hate to provide this update because it is a non-answer. The answer is known but for competitive reasons it cannot be disclosed. The answer is therefore you will see him when and if you see him. I would say this is more like the NHL injury disclosures. It's a lower body injury and it is week to week.
Understood,
Thank you Rising!
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GWAA, thanks for those definitive definitions on what "disappointing" means. Even after factoring that Ellis McKennie would miss almost the entire season and that Max Blank would play injured throughout most of the season, I'll go out on a limb and suggest that the 1988-89 team disappointed but not by as much as the NIT Championship team. 1-27 is gravely disappointing practically irrespective of any circumstances. That's a ton of losing. 20 losses by 7+ points or more. Losing conference games by an average of 13 points per loss. Am not arguing that the 2015-16 team had higher expectations (no comparison). But disappointment is in the eye of the beholder and I'd much prefer a team fall short of the dance and then rebound to salvage its season then watch a team lose 27 of 28 games played. Not even close as to which was more disappointing in my mind.
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Gwmayhem wrote:
GWAA, thanks for those definitive definitions on what "disappointing" means. Even after factoring that Ellis McKennie would miss almost the entire season and that Max Blank would play injured throughout most of the season, I'll go out on a limb and suggest that the 1988-89 team disappointed but not by as much as the NIT Championship team. 1-27 is gravely disappointing practically irrespective of any circumstances. That's a ton of losing. 20 losses by 7+ points or more. Losing conference games by an average of 13 points per loss. Am not arguing that the 2015-16 team had higher expectations (no comparison). But disappointment is in the eye of the beholder and I'd much prefer a team fall short of the dance and then rebound to salvage its season then watch a team lose 27 of 28 games played. Not even close as to which was more disappointing in my mind.
I atttended probably 17 or 18 of those losses home and away, and none were fun. About the only thing that made the experience worse was the game when BGF came through the student section and handed atendees fistfulls of cupons for free fried chicken at Roy´s, only they were valid for just a week meaning that-- in addition to the "joy" of watching the team lose game after game after game-- my bowels were subjected to torture banned by the Geneva Convention. (And for that, I realize now that I disappointed myself and my digestive tract; but I still blame BGF)