With noting that Dayton is red hot.  They’ve won 4 in a row - all against teams in the top half of the league, including blowing out SLU.  Were it not for that three week slump during which they lost 5 of 6, they would very much be in the bubble.

I expect a different game from the one at Dayton. In that game, they swarmed Castro and dared us to beat them from three (we had some good stretches and cold stretches, but prob could have done better than 10-28 given how open the looks were). 

But mostly what they did is try to force turnovers, which they are currently 7th best in the nation at doing.  When we didn’t turn it over, we were fairly efficient, so once again this game is largely going to be about taking care of the ball.

The other big difference is the emergence of Aranguren.  He only played 7 minutes in that game (I think because Dinkins was hot).  But he’s our best point guard defender right now, and we have to contain Bennett, whose second half explosion won them the game. Looking for Jean to be MUCH better this game.

And last point, weirdly our starters only scored 21 points in the game. I’m sure they’ll be motivated to prove that was a fluke.

Dayton Flyers (Game 2)
Date: Friday February 27th, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Charles E. Smith Center (Washington, DC)
TV: ESPN2
Ranks: 78th (KenPom), 78th (Bart Torvik), 80th (Haslametrics), 66th (EvanMiya)
NET Ranking: 76th (Q3 Game, but very close to Q2)
2025-26 Projected Record: 20-11, 11-7 (T-3rd in A10)

Game 1 Result: DAY 79, GW 72 (Dinkins 24 points, Johnson 14 points, Marshall Jr. 11 points)
Team Preview: Link
Dayton Record Since Last Matchup: 7-5 (Wins @ Duquesne, vs. Loyola, vs. St. Bonaventure, vs. Davidson, @ George Mason, vs. Duquesne, vs. Saint Louis; Losses @ La Salle, @ St. Joe's, vs. Rhode Island, @ Saint Louis, @ VCU)

Offensive Efficiency: 123rd (KenPom), 126th (Bart Torvik), 128th (Haslametrics), 114th (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 43rd (KenPom), 47th (Bart Torvik), 43rd (Haslametrics), 36th (EvanMiya)
Pace: 166th (KenPom), 161st (Bart Torvik), 159th (Haslametrics), 156th (EvanMiya)

Projected Starting Lineup:
#0 G Javon Bennett (Senior; Orlando, FL) - 15.9 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.5 spg; 38% FG, 33% 3-PT, 91% FT per 34.9 mpg/28 GP
      Game 1 @ Dayton: 20 points, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 2 steals; 4-20 FG, 3-9 3-PT, 9-10 FT in 38 minutes.

#2 G De'Shayne Montgomery (Junior; Fort Lauderdale, FL) - 14.1 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 2.4 apg, 2.4 spg; 50% FG, 36% 3-PT, 81% FT per 31.1 mpg/27 GP
      Game 1 @ Dayton: 12 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal; 5-12 FG, 0-4 3-PT, 2-2 FT in 33 minutes.

#7 G Keonte Jones (Graduate Student; Madison, WI) - 8.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.5 spg; 53% FG, 36% 3-PT, 66% FT per 30.5 mpg/28 GP
      Game 1 @ Dayton: 15 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals; 5-6 FG, 1-1 3-PT, 4-4 FT in 34 minutes.

#3 F Jaiun Simon (RS Sophomore; Mableton, GA) - 5.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1 apg; 49% FG, 41% 3-PT, 77% FT per 17.4 mpg/27 GP
      Game 1 @ Dayton: 12 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal; 3-5 FG, 0-1 3-PT, 6-6 FT in 30 minutes.

#29 F Amaël L'Etang (Sophomore; Bastia, France) - 12.5 ppg, 6 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.3 bpg; 51% FG, 36% 3-PT, 76% FT per 24.5 mpg/24 GP
      Game 1 @ Dayton: DNP

Projected Bench:
#4 G Jordan Derkack (Senior; Colonia, NJ) - 8.9 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 2.7 apg, 1.2 spg; 39% FG, 28% 3-PT, 71% FT per 24.9 mpg/23 GP
     Game 1 @ Dayton: 13 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 steals; 3-6 FG, 2-3 3-PT, 5-7 FT in 27 minutes.

#10 G Bryce Heard (Sophomore; Chicago, IL) - 7 ppg, 2.5 rpg; 42% FG, 35% 3-PT, 78% FT per 19.6 mpg/27 GP
     Game 1 @ Dayton: 4 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal; 2-2 FG in 16 minutes.

#1 F Malcolm Thomas (RS Freshman; Mitchellville, MD) - 4.6 ppg, 1.6 rpg; 53% FG, 33% 3-PT, 61% FT per 9.6 mpg/20 GP
     Game 1 @ Dayton: DNP

#24 F Jacob Conner (Senior; Dayton, OH) - 3.3 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 1.2 apg; 39% FG, 28% 3-PT, 55% FT per 18.3 mpg/27 GP
     Game 1 @ Dayton: 3 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist, 3 steals; 1-4 FG, 0-2 3-PT, 1-1 FT in 19 minutes.

#50 G Sean Pouedet (Freshman; Machelen, Belgium) - 0.8 ppg, 0.3 rpg, 0.5 apg; 43% FG, 33% 3-PT, 100% FT per 6.5 mpg/11 GP
     Game 1 @ Dayton: 1 assist in 3 minutes.

Conference Marks (A10 play only):
Opponent Turnovers Per Game: 14 TO/G (1st)
Steals Per Game: 8.07 SPG (1st)
Team FT Percentage: 77% (1st)
Turnover Margin: +2 TO/G (1st)
Opponent FG Percentage: 43.5% (3rd)
Blocked Shots Per Game: 4 BPG (5th)
Scoring Margin: +2.1 PPG (5th)
Assists Per Game: 14.13 APG (6th)
Team 3-Point FG Percentage: 35.3% (6th)
Scoring Defense: 71.1 PPG (7th)
Scoring Offense: 73.2 PPG (7th)
Team FG Percentage: 44.1% (7th)
Combined Opponent Rebounds: 33.9 RPG (8th)
Opponent 3-Point FG Percentage: 34.4% (8th)
Opponent FT Percentage: 73.1% (9th)
Team Defensive Rebounds: 23.1 DRPG (9th)
Assist/Turnover Ratio: 1.18 AST/TO (10th)
Turnovers Per Game: 12 TO/G (10th)
3-Point FGs Made: 7.1 3PM/G (11th)
Rebound Margin: -1.9 RPG (11th)
Combined Team Rebounds: 32 RPG (12th)
Team Offensive Rebounds: 8.9 ORPG (12th)

Individual Leaders (A10 play only):
Scoring:
Javon Bennett - 15.5 PPG (9th)
De'Shayne Montgomery - 13.1 PPG (17th)

Rebounding:
Keonte Jones - 5.3 RPG (14th)

Free Throw Percentage:
Javon Bennett - 89.5% (3rd)
Bryce Heard - 87% (6th)
De'Shayne Montgomery - 82.4% (15th)
Jaiun Simon - 77.6% (21st)

3-PT Field Goals Per Game:
Javon Bennett - 2.3 3PM/G (10th)

Assists Per Game:
Javon Bennett - 3.2 APG (14th)
De'Shayne Montgomery - 2.3 APG (24th)

Assist/Turnover Ratio:
Javon Bennett - 2.2 AST/TO (8th)

Blocks Per Game:
De'Shayne Montgomery - 0.7 BPG (18th)
Jaiun Simon - 0.7 BPG (19th)
Keonte Jones - 0.6 BPG (21st)

Steals Per Game:
De'Shayne Montgomery - 2.2 SPG (3rd)
Javon Bennett - 1.7 SPG (5th)

Minutes Per Game:
Javon Bennett - 36.4 MPG (2nd)
De'Shayne Montgomery - 31.4 MPG (15th)
Keonte Jones - 30.9 MPG (16th)

Keys/Trends:
- Dayton has played a dozen games since last facing off against GW. Their conference season has pretty much been a tale of two halves since. The Flyers slumped the rest of January, going 2-4. A couple of those losses were close. Once the calendar flipped to February, they've not only won games, but have been winning by large margins. Dayton is 5-1 this month. The Flyers have won their last four games by an average of 13.25 points.

- This Flyer team is defense first. In conference play, Dayton is 1-4 when conceding more than 70 points to the other team. Sadly, that one win was against GW in the last meeting.

- On the flip side, Dayton is 9-1 when surrendering 70 or fewer points. Their lone blemish was a road game against La Salle in which they got off to a very slow start. A "very slow start" is putting it very generously. The Explorers were up 33-8 at the start of the game.

- That is key #1 going into tomorrow's game. Can GW get off to a fast start? In conference play, Dayton is 1-4 when trailing at the half. Their lone comeback was against Loyola, but let's be honest - the Ramblers just don't have it this year.

- Some home cooking should help. Four of Dayton's five losses in the A10 have come away from home. Their best road win in conference play was probably against Duquesne right after they played GW. Outside of that, they've only won twice outside of UD Arena in 2026. One was a narrow win over Loyola, and the other was against a George Mason team that is slumping badly right now.

- In the month of February, Dayton has out-assisted their opponents in every game except at VCU, the lone game they lost. The last time the two teams met, Dayton finished with nearly twice as many assists as GW - 17-9 despite the Revs shooting the ball very well overall. GW averages 15.6 assists per game in conference play, which ranks third in the league. They will want to come close to that to come out with a win on Friday.

- This goes without saying, but GW needs to take care of the ball significantly better tomorrow. We know that Dayton leads the league in forcing turnovers and generating steals, but over the last six games they've averaged only 6.3 steals per game. Not even Loyola, by far the worst team at taking care of the ball in the A10, coughed up the ball as many times as GW in the last meeting. The Revs turned it over 22 times at UD Arena. Anything over 15 turnovers tomorrow is too many (and quite frankly, even that is on the higher side).

- A somewhat promising development in the last couple of weeks has been GW's ability to force a few more turnovers on defense. This was not yet the case in the last meeting - GW had just six steals all game. In Dayton's five conference losses, opponents have averaged over 10 steals per game. La Salle, Rhody, SLU, and VCU all managed to generate double-digit steals in their wins. That may be asking too much of GW, but the Flyers can definitely be turnover prone on offense themselves. GW needs to take advantage of this way more than they did the last time around.

- Dayton is not a bad three point shooting team, but this is a squad that wants to get downhill and live at the FT line. In the last meeting, Dayton attempted 10 more FTs than GW. In all five of their losses in conference play, Flyer opponents ended up attempting more FTs than UD. The George Mason game back on 2/18 was the only time they were outshot at the FT line and still won. Here's hoping GW gets a bit of a home whistle. As I'veg said many times this season, this year's Revs team just doesn't get to the line as much as the last couple CC teams.

- We know Javon Bennett is going to get the shots up. He's attempted 10 or more shots in 19 straight games dating back to December. In all of Dayton's losses since then, he's shot below 40% from the field. As we saw in the last meeting, he can be very inefficient. In the last three games however Bennett's been shooting the ball well - 17/31 (55%). GW will certainly not want to give him free points at the line. Bennett attempted 10 FTs in the last meeting, which is his second highest number of attempts on the season (had 12 FTA against BYU). Don't expect him to come off the floor much either. Bennett is second in the league in minutes per game during conference play after Darryl Simmons II of St. Bonaventure.

- While Bennett has shot the ball better lately, De'Shayne Montgomery has taken a bit of a step back, going just 10/28 (36%) from the field in the last three games and 3/14 (21%) from 3. To Montgomery's credit, he's stepped up as a passer (13 assists during this time).

- Obviously one of the major storylines is what impact Amaël L'Etang will have since he didn't play in the last matchup. L'Etang took a few games to get going after returning from injury. He didn't score at all in his first three games back but has since averaged double figures in eight straight games. The France native is averaging nearly seven free throw attempts in the last month. Slim and Luke cannot both afford to be in foul trouble tomorrow so this will be something to watch. L'Etang has also pulled down 20 boards in the last two games and has shot a very impressive 7/11 (64%) from behind the arc in the last three. Slim and Luke don't have to guard along the perimeter often, and L'Etang will pose some matchup challenges there. He's putting up 21.3 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 3 apg, and 2 bpg in the last week and a half. That's A10 PoY level production.

- Jordan Derkack may be the X-factor tomorrow. His help side defense guarding Slim played a big role in the last meeting. However, since coming away with four steals in that game, Derkack has had six steals across the seven most recent games that he's appeared in. He's pulled down at least four rebounds in six straight games and can very quietly rack up the FT attempts. I think you live with his three point attempts instead of sending him to the line. Derkack is coming off a 2/2 game from 3 against SLU (and was 2/3 against GW) but that's not really his game.

- Keonte Jones has been a bit quieter lately offensively, with just one double figure game in February. He has been relatively efficient on his attempts, but I think L'Etang has lessened his impact a bit on that end. Jones can hit the open three, but like Derkack he wants to get closer to the basket and finish. He can find himself in foul trouble. Last time against GW, Jones had four personals. In the 12 games since, he's had four personals on four other occasions and fouled out in two additional games.

- The Flyers are weirdly just 2-5 on the year when Bryce Heard scores in double figures (1-4 in conference play) but that's probably just a coincidence. Since December, he's only made multiple threes in a game once (Jan 27th in a loss to URI in OT). He's yet another guy that wants to go inside on his shot attempts. Heard missed the SLU game on Tuesday with a lower body injury and will likely be questionable at least for tomorrow.

- I already named Derkack as an X-factor, but Jaiun Simon certainly fits the bill as an X-factor as well. He stepped up well in L'Etang's absence up front. His impact on the glass was very important in the last meeting (Simon recorded nine rebounds). Dayton is 5-0 in conference play when Simon grabs at least five boards. Foul trouble has been a bit of a problem lately, with Simon fouling out of three of the last five games and picking up at least three fouls in each game.

- Malcolm Thomas also missed the previous meeting last month, but his impact has been minimal in February. In four appearances this month, Thomas has scored just two points and is 0/5 from the field. Incredibly, he's recorded zero rebounds in 22 minutes during that time. It's not a guarantee that he plays tomorrow, but I included him in case he's given spot minutes to play in front of family (Thomas is a DeMatha product).

- Like Thomas, hometown hero Jacob Conner has taken a backseat to the L'Etang show, scoring six points total this month. In the last four games particularly, Conner has seen his minutes dip to just over 8 mpg.

Projected Score: GW 79, Dayton 76. 61% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik forecasts a 67% chance at a W. ESPN predicts a 61.6% chance for GW to move to 17-12.
 

I can't emphasize enough how useful these previews are, DMV. We all owe you a debt of gratitude. We'll be doing another GW Basketball Insiders live postgame show tonight since David will be at the game. As usual, it will be live on Matt Modderno's Twitter and the Department of Hoops YouTube channel. It will be posted after the fact on Spotify and Apple Podcasts along with the automatic recording that's posted to Twitter + YouTube.

My guess is we'll go live around 9:45 once press conferences wrap up

The boys survived the onslaught and are showing some fight.

Crowd is about as good as its been this year, with the exception of the G’town game.

Crazy unpredictable half, and yet in the end the halftime score is probably about what we should have expected…

Alum1 wrote:

DC Native wrote:

Crowd is about as good as its been this year, with the exception of the G’town game.

Crazy unpredictable half, and yet in the end the halftime score is probably about what we should have expected…

 
After the first 12 minutes, I would not have expected this score. Maybe I would have prayed for it?  Very nice effort to stay focused, not let them run away with it and climb back in.

Me either! What I meant was that if you told me before the game started that the halftime score would be 31-34 Dayton, I would’ve thought that was about right.

If this team is going to make any noise at all in the A10 Tourney, they are going to have to prove they can win a close one at some point. This might be their last opportunity…

Last edited by DC Native (2/27/2026 8:38 pm)

Alum1 wrote:

Literally a criminal performance from the line.

Anti-clutch… They look tired, too.

Jesus.

Once again coming out of a time out with the game on the line, CC calls a play that does not work. Anyone else see a pattern here?
Team was terrible in the first 10 mins of the game and then showed some (dare I say it?) actual grit to come back. Of course, that slow start proved too big an obstacle to overcome, but Dayton fans will be checking airfares to Vegas for The Crown after that one.
(Also, consider all debts from the "6 on the court" T's vs Dayton paid after tonight)

Last edited by GW Alum Abroad (2/27/2026 9:33 pm)