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2/17/2020 2:09 pm  #1


A10 Tournament Seeding Probabilities

As of 2/16:

We are currently 9th, and would face Davidson in the first round. We beat them at home in the classic 4 OT game a few weeks back, but the Wildcats are shooting the ball very well and blew out both Fordham and St. Bonaventure last week so not sure it's the ideal first game for us.

The bigger problem is that if we win we would be playing Dayton and it's not exactly a hot take at all that we wouldn't fare well in that contest.

The good news is that we are 4-1 against the teams below us currently, so we aren't at risk of falling too much unless somehow GMU or UMass finish with more conference wins than us (we own both tiebreakers). We only play teams below us two more times this season (Fordham and La Salle) with both contests at home.

Overall, I don't see us moving much from the 9 seed. We only own the tiebreak against Davidson among teams above us, and they have won two more conference games than us as of now. Even if we were to move up to 8th somehow, we would still be playing in the same 8-9 game with the winner playing top seed Dayton.

(via Bob Arciero)

 

2/17/2020 4:38 pm  #2


Re: A10 Tournament Seeding Probabilities

89.6% odds of a GW bye

Regarding the odds of St Joes landing a bye.....    So you're saying there's a chance.

 

2/17/2020 4:53 pm  #3


Re: A10 Tournament Seeding Probabilities

I said coming into the season that I would consider this year a success if we didn't end up in the Wednesday Night Pillow Fight.  So far so good from JC and crew.  

 

2/17/2020 5:13 pm  #4


Re: A10 Tournament Seeding Probabilities

Thank God for Armel Potter's return. Without him I wonder whether we would even beat Fordham at home.

 

2/17/2020 5:22 pm  #5


Re: A10 Tournament Seeding Probabilities

I think if we can take care of Fordham and La Salle at home we are in pretty good shape as far as Wednesday. Any other win plus those two would seal it.

 

2/17/2020 6:38 pm  #6


Re: A10 Tournament Seeding Probabilities

We have a 3 game lead on George Mason (when you count head to head) to stay out of the play-in game.

George Mason has a fairly tough schedule left ...

@Richmond
St. Joseph's
Dayton
@Duquesne
St. Louis
@Fordham

I think 2 wins for GW will likely seal it.

Last edited by GWRising (2/17/2020 6:38 pm)

 

2/17/2020 6:44 pm  #7


Re: A10 Tournament Seeding Probabilities

Does the Brooklyn arena have a cerfew? If so, the powers-that-be in the conference will instruct refs to screw GW in the remaining games so as to avoid another prolonged GW-Davidson game. Then again, if there are unused commercials that the conference owes advertisers... (what? you thought college hoops was about fair competition between peers? hahahaha).

 

2/21/2020 8:52 pm  #8


Re: A10 Tournament Seeding Probabilities

Update as of 2/19. We have under a 3% chance of playing in the play-in game at this point. Unfortunately, also have a 76% chance of playing in the 8-9 game which means a Friday matchup against Dayton if we win on Thursday.

     Thread Starter
 

2/21/2020 10:54 pm  #9


Re: A10 Tournament Seeding Probabilities

If we get to play Dayton on Friday, it would be a cause for celebration.

 

2/22/2020 9:09 am  #10


Re: A10 Tournament Seeding Probabilities

Free Quebec wrote:

If we get to play Dayton on Friday, it would be a cause for celebration.

Roger that.

 

2/27/2020 3:50 pm  #11


Re: A10 Tournament Seeding Probabilities

Well done graphic by SBUnfurled

Last edited by BM (2/27/2020 3:51 pm)

 

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