GW Basketball Insiders Fordham recap + SLU preview:

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Saint Louis Billikens
Date: Friday March 13th, 2026
Time: 11:30 AM ET
Venue: PPG Paints Arena (Pittsburgh, PA)
TV: USA
Ranks: 40th (KenPom), 40th (Bart Torvik), 37th (Haslametrics), 31st (EvanMiya)

Game 1 Result: SLU 79, GW 76 (Jones 15 points, Marshall Jr. 15 points, Autry 13 points, Castro 12 points)
Team Preview: Link
Saint Louis Record Since Last Matchup: 7-3 (Wins vs. Dayton, @ Davidson, vs. La Salle, @ Loyola Chicago, vs. VCU, vs. Duquesne, vs. Loyola Chicago; Losses @ Rhode Island, @ Dayton, @ George Mason)

SLU is 1-1 in neutral site games. They beat Santa Clara by 1 and fell to Stanford by 1. The Billikens are not as potent in games away from Chaifetz and GW was the only team all year that played them within single digits at their place. As you can see above, all three of SLU's losses since the last matchup have come on the road.

Offensive Efficiency: 47th (KenPom), 41st (Bart Torvik), 42nd (Haslametrics), 33rd (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 39th (KenPom), 49th (Bart Torvik), 40th (Haslametrics), 33rd (EvanMiya)
Pace: 23rd (KenPom), 24th (Bart Torvik), 22nd (Haslametrics), 22nd (EvanMiya)

Projected Starting Lineup:
#3 G Trey Green (RS Sophomore; Charlotte, NC) - 10.9 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.6 apg; 47% FG, 46% 3-PT, 83% FT per 23.5 mpg/30 GP
     Game 1 @ SLU: 23 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 steals; 8-15 FG, 6-10 3-PT, 1-2 FT in 31 minutes.

#13 G Dion Brown (Senior; Great Barrington, MA) - 11.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.6 apg; 61% FG, 39% 3-PT, 73% FT per 23.4 mpg/31 GP
     Game 1 @ SLU: 2 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist; 1-3 FG, 0-2 3-PT, 0-1 FT in 16 minutes.

#1 G Quentin Jones (Junior; Chicago, IL) - 9.5 ppg, 4 rpg, 3 apg; 47% FG, 39% 3-PT, 81% FT per 26.5 mpg/31 GP
     Game 1 @ SLU: 8 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists; 2-12 FG, 1-5 3-PT, 3-6 FT in 35 minutes.

#4 G Amari McCottry (Sophomore; Milwaukee, WI) - 10.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.2 spg; 50% FG, 29% 3-PT, 58% FT per 22.5 mpg/30 GP
     Game 1 @ SLU: 3 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists; 1-4 FG, 1-2 3-PT, 0-1 FT in 23 minutes.

#21 C Robbie Avila (Senior; Oak Forest, IL) - 12.6 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 4.1 apg; 51% FG, 42% 3-PT, 79% FT per 25.9 mpg/31 GP
     Game 1 @ SLU: 22 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals; 7-13 FG, 4-8 3-PT, 4-5 FT in 31 minutes.

Projected Bench:
#0 G Kellen Thames (RS Junior; St. Louis, MO) - 9.9 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.9 apg, 1.4 spg; 67% FG, 25% 3-PT, 64% FT per 17.4 mpg/29 GP
     Game 1 @ SLU: 15 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal; 7-9 FG, 0-1 3-PT, 1-5 FT in 24 minutes.

#9 F Ishan Sharma (Sophomore; Milton, Canada) - 9 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 1.5 apg; 45% FG, 44% 3-PT, 83% FT per 21.8 mpg/31 GP
     Game 1 @ SLU: 4 points, 4 rebounds, 1 steal; 1-4 FG, 0-3 3-PT, 2-2 FT in 25 minutes.

#11 F Brady Dunlap (RS Sophomore; Studio City, CA) - 7.1 ppg, 2 rpg; 44% FG, 44% 3-PT, 81% FT per 17.1 mpg/30 GP
     Game 1 @ SLU: DNP

#25 F Paul Otieno (Senior; Nairobi, Kenya) - 5.6 ppg, 4 rpg; 58% FG, 67% 3-PT, 77% FT per 16 mpg/31 GP
     Game 1 @ SLU: 2 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assist; 1-3 FG in 15 minutes.

When Saint Louis has the ball:
- Limit the Billikens to one possession. SLU is not a particularly strong offensive rebounding unit, but in the last matchup GW surrendered 13 second chance opportunities. The Billikens posted an OR% of 30.2% in that game, which is better than their 27.9% average in A10 play.

- For a team that stocked up on shooting, this SLU team has not been that good from the FT line, ranking just 12th among A10 teams. If the game ends up being close, GW will want to target Amari McCottry and Kellen Thames, who shoot 58 and 64% respectively from the charity stripe.

- One of the goals for GW when Fordham had the ball was to try and force turnovers. That should remain in play against SLU, as the Billikens were only marginally better in ball security than the Rams. In the last meeting, GW generated 10 steals and turned St Lou over 14 times. Robbie Avila can be loose with the ball, and maybe not being 100% healthy will play a role. McCottry, Dion Brown, and Quentin Jones can be careless themselves.

- Know SLU's personnel. GW did a fairly good job on most SLU players, but lost track of Trey Green on a few different occasions. It's easier said than done, but Green cannot have any space whatsoever to even get off threes. He's only made 24 twos all year. If he gets a layup, so be it. Don't allow the three. The same applies to Ishan Sharma and Brady Dunlap, who have made just 12 and 18 twos respectively all season (Dunlap didn't play in the last meeting, but he can't go unnoticed). That trio will get shots up, but GW needs to make them tough looks. It's difficult because so many SLU players shoot the three well, but guys like Jones and Brown aren't high volume shooters. Again, maybe Avila not being fully healthy hurts his efficiency some. McCottry went 1/2 from three in the last matchup, but given he's 29% for the season I think you live with his attempts. Play off him and don't allow him to drive to the hoop. Similarly, Kellen Thames has attempted just eight threes all year (funnily enough one came against GW, which he missed) so you dare him to shoot instead of allowing him to kill inside like he did last time. URI, Dayton, and GMU all won their home games against SLU in the last month by outshooting them from 3. The Billikens were just 17/66 (26%) from 3 across these three games. GW has no chance if they don't guard the perimeter well.

When GW has the ball:
- Take care of the ball. This will be a key for the rest of the season because GW is so damn careless for stretches of games. SLU is not a team that turns people over. They are a good defensive team, but not one that is physical and GW tends to struggle more with the physical squads.

- Balanced shot diet. GW will have to make shots - no way around it. What the shot diet breakdown looks like is a bit harder to figure. Obviously if GW falls behind by a lot then they will need to shoot themselves back in it, but they should not get away from attacking the hoop if the game remains close. SLU is not overly imposing down low with rim protection, and the Revs may also be able to get to the line and get Avila in foul trouble (although he hasn't fouled out all season and has been good at avoiding the fouls). The Billikens can be prone to fouling, but other players outside of Slim need to take advantage.

- Autry, Johnson, and Dinkins need to get perimeter shots to fall. GW's three point shooting has fallen off over the last four games. The Revs have not made double digit threes during that time and are just 31/103 (30%) from behind the arc which is just not good enough.  The Buff and Blue were just 8/30 last time against SLU and were able to keep it close but you can't bank on that happening twice in a row.

- Offensive rebounding. I might as well throw that in given how much of a role it played in the Fordham game. SLU is not bad at defensive rebounding (5th in the A10) but to be honest GW needs to win the rebounding battle tomorrow. It was dead even in the last matchup but GW is the better team on the boards.

- Don't be afraid to slow it down. SLU wants to play super fast (top 25 nationally in tempo) which may not be a good thing for a GW team that will be playing on consecutive days. The Revs like to play fast themselves and go nine deep, but down the stretch of the game it might make sense to drain more of the shot clock to prevent fatigue from playing a role.

Look, no one expects GW to win this game, but maybe they'll play with nothing to lose tomorrow AM. The morning tip might play a role, and it will be technically be even earlier for SLU coming from the central time zone. As we've seen in the A10 tournament so far, teams that have played games already have performed fairly well.

Projected Score: SLU 85, GW 79. 28% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik forecasts a 31% chance for GW to move to 19-14.
 

Thank you Insiders and dmvpiranha!  

Even though the outcomes of our Jan. SLU game and yesterdays Fordham game were different, the first halves were very similar.  GW came out and played fly around defense while dominating the boards.  Then came  the letdowns in both second halves either as a result of fatigue, lack of discipline, or both.  I hate to invoke Schmidt and the Bonnies but his teams seem to steadily improve over a season both conditioning-wise and fundamentals-wise. Their system seems to be a result of a million reps.

Lets go Revs!!!  How sweet it would be!

Last edited by H&R..71 (3/13/2026 10:21 am)

Why when Autry is shooting a three does SLU keep fouling him? (Not complaining)

Keep up the good D, stay on the boards and make some 3s

I guess the A10 has tolds its refs not to call fouls on Avila.

Well, the foul on Dunlap's three proves anything SLU can do dumb, a Caputo team can do dumber.

Today, if this team blows another big halftime lead, I swear I will pop a vein.
Cannot expect SLU to continue its erratic shooting in the 2nd, and will Avila continue to see such limited playing time? 
These next 20 mins WILL define this GW team and season. period.

Marshall 9 and 8

Wisconsin Colonial 1974 wrote:

Gotta be happy but need to shoot FTs better

FT - GW 65% versus SLU 100%
Turnovers - GW 9 versus SLU 5

Unless there is minor diety at work for GW the door is wide open for St. Louis