VCU Rams

Date/Time: Saturday February 29th @ 4:00 PM at The Stuart C. Siegel Center in Richmond, VA on CBSSN.
Record Last Year: 25-8, 16-2 (1st in Atlantic 10)
Preseason Ranks: 23rd (KenPom), 10th (Bart Torvik), 22nd (Sports Illustrated), 22nd (CBS)
Projected Record: 19-12, 9-9 (8th in Atlantic 10)
Postseason Last Year: NCAA as an 8 seed; lost to Central Florida 73-58 in the round of 64. The Rams struggled shooting the ball, finishing the game shooting just 31% from the field and 23% from deep. Malik Crowfield was their only guy who shot above 50% from the floor. Tacko Fall gave the Knights a huge rebounding advantage with 13 points and 18 rebounds as the normally strong VCU defense (7th best in the country last year) allowed UCF to shoot 49% from the floor, and 64% from deep. Former GW player Collin Smith had 3 points and 2 rebounds in just 8 minutes of play for Central Florida. 

Coaching Record: Mike Rhoades, 43-23 in two seasons at VCU. After a disappointing first year that saw the Rams finish just tied for 5th with a 9-9 A10 record (expectations are high there), Rhoades got VCU back into the tournament last year. He was pretty mediocre at Rice (admittedly a tough place to win at), going 47-52 in three seasons with a lone CBI appearance, but did enjoy great success at D3 Randolph-Macon, with a 197-76 combined record in 10 seasons and 4 postseason appearances. He took the Yellow Jackets to two consecutive Sweet 16s in 2002 and 2003.

All Time Record: 3-14, safe to say we don't have a good track record against VCU and we have only won once at their place (during the 2015-16 season 72-69 behind a dominant 27 point performance from Pato and 11 points apiece from JoeMac and Tyler). We turned the ball over just 10 times in that game, a key for tomorrow. Last season, we faced VCU twice, faring a good bit better at home. The 28 point road loss was a lot closer at halftime before the team completely lost all composure. A hot shooting DJ helped the team get to the locker room down just 3 at halftime, 43-40 (probably one of our best offensive halves of last year if I had to guess). Williams finished with 22 for the game, and Maceo had 12, but the team most notably took 10 minutes and 11 seconds to get on the scoreboard in the second half. Mazzulla's layup ended an 18-0 VCU run. Hoping that kind of performance doesn't happen again.

Offensive Efficiency: 151st (KenPom), 136th (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 35th (KenPom), 35th (Bart Torvik)
Tempo: 107th (KenPom), 100th (Bart Torvik)

Key Returning Players:
Marcus Evans (RS SR; Chesapeake, VA) 13.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 3.2 apg, 1.9 spg; 43% FG, 27% 3-pt, 77% FT
      Last Year @ VCU: 25 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists; 6-10 FG, 4-6 3-pt, 9-10 FT in 24 minutes. Yes, you read that right - Evans had more points than minutes played, and predictably against us a 27% three point shooter made 4 threes on us. Go figure.

De'Riante Jenkins (SR; Eutawville, SC) 11.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 2 apg; 41% FG, 34% 3-pt, 75% FT
      Last Year @ VCU: 11 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists; 4-9 FG, 2-4 3-pt, 1-1 FT in 23 minutes.

Issac Vann (RS SR; Bridgeport, CT) 10.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.2 apg; 42% FG, 30% 3-pt, 82% FT
      Last Year @ VCU: 4 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists; 2-4 FG, 0-1 3-pt in 24 minutes.

Marcus Santos-Silva (JR; Taunton, MA) 10 ppg, 7.4 rpg; 59% FG, 60% FT
      Last Year @ VCU: 14 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists; 4-7 FG, 6-8 FT (again, it was that kind of game for us, a 60% FT shooter shot 75%).

Key Losses:
Sean Mobley transferred in the offseason (he is walking-on at UCF, if you can beat 'em, join 'em I guess) which hurt their frontcourt a bit, but he wasn't a big scorer. Surprised he isn't on scholarship given UCF isn't that great this year having lost a lot, but maybe homesickness played a role.

Comments:
VCU was picked 7th in the 2018-19 A10 preseason poll. It was clear that over the course of OOC play, the Rams were clearly much better than a middling team in a down year for the A10. Three of their four losses were to teams that ended up making the NCAA tournament - St. John's, Old Dominion, and of course last year's champion UVA (the latter two were on the road) - and the fourth, Charleston, was in the mix to win the CAA. The Rams would kick it up another gear during conference play though, which just two road losses to Davidson and URI. They would win 12 straight games (including two against us) and didn't lose a single game in February, the time of year you want to be playing your best.

This season, things started off similarly. The Rams got revenge on Old Dominion and Charleston, and dropped just three games during OOC play. Although all three teams - Purdue, Tennessee, and Wichita State - are probably closer to the bubble, they weren't bad losses (although the Purdue and Tennessee losses in consecutive games were both heartbreakers). A10 play was much of the same - they lost to Dayton and URI (twice - the "Ram" bowl seems to have gone the way of Rhode Island of late as they have won four of the past five meetings between the two) in January, but none of those were bad losses as both teams figure to be in the NCAA tournament.

The month of February between this year and last year have been polar opposites though. The Rams did get revenge on Davidson, but since then have been extremely flat, dropping 5 games in a row (their longest since February 1998!) which included a home loss to George Mason, a team we've swept. With the dreams of making the NCAAs requiring them to win the conference tournament at this point, maybe there is less pressure on them to win for the remainder of conference play, but they need to build momentum entering the tournament. The team looks a bit lost from what I've watched recently. I was thinking after the Mason loss they would play tough in the games afterward, but apart from a strong effort against Dayton, they haven't really looked like the same team from earlier in the year.

The drop off in play in February can be attributed to VCU not getting enough from their senior class. One could argue that this hasn't been the same VCU team since the quarterfinal tournament game against Rhode Island last season, when their leader Marcus Evans (who followed Rhoades from Rice home to VA) went down with a bruised knee and the Rams would go on to lose their final two games of the year. You have to feel for Evans, who has battled back from two achilles injuries, and now a bruised knee from last year. It has clearly been tough on him and the team, and it reached a point in January where Rhoades elected to bench him for disciplinary reasons. Evans is actually shooting the three ball much better this year at 38% but his overall efficiency is down (just 37% from the floor) and he is averaging just 9.9 ppg on the year. He is their leader in assists, and one of their best on-ball defenders with 1.5 steals a game. Evans is 0-9 from the field in his last two games played. De'Riante Jenkins, a top 60 player out of HS, is second in scoring at 10.7 ppg and gives the Rams a bit of everything on the floor. Offensively, he is second in made threes with 39 (at a 33% clip), and is their best free throw shooter at 88% but provides more than just that. Jenkins is also their best defender with 1.9 steals a game, is second in rebounding at 4.2 rpg, and is also second in assists with 2 a game. Even if his shot is not on (he is 9-39 in his last four games combined), expect Jenkins to have an impact during the game. Issac Vann, a transfer from Maine, averages 7.2 ppg and is tied for third in assists with 1.8 a game. Although he is not a big rebounder despite his 6-6 frame, Vann also fits in with the havoc scheme defensively, and is a capable three point shooter (he averages just 2 attempts per game so he doesn't live from there). Mike'l Simms, a former JUCO and local product, posts decent scoring (5.8 ppg) and rebounding (3.1 rpg) per 22 minutes but has been pretty inefficient shooting the ball at 34% (he is one of their better free throw shooters at 87% though). He is 7-34 shooting in VCU's last 8 games, and has shot under 35% in 12 of their past 13 games. Ouch. Finally, Malik Crowfield will add some scoring and three point shooting (38%) when on the floor. He made three threes against us in the road game last year.

The junior tandem of Marcus Santos-Silva and Corey Douglas are their main guys down low. Santos-Silva is their leading scorer at 12.7 ppg and leading rebounder at 9.1 rpg. VCU isn't a big shot-blocking team, but Silva is the best of the guys they have. I don't worry as much about us matching up offensively against him as I do defensively. He is a good finisher at the hoop at 56%, and while he is only a 55% free throw shooter, I will point once again to his 6-8 performance against us last year, and Croswell's recent performance as a 60% shooter. Fouling him could be a technique late in the game, but knowing our bad luck it will probably hurt us. Douglas is also a decent finisher and rebounder down low who will see probably less time. His averages are almost the same as last year, and he too is not the best of shooters from the line.

VCU's sophomore class of KeShawn Curry and Vincent 'Vince' Williams both average roughly 4 points and 3 rebounds a game. Curry is the better shooter overall, while Williams is better from the line. Neither is great from distance (a combined 12-59 on the year).

With the way things have gone in February, VCU might want to start looking into the future and playing their freshman class more. Nah'Shon 'Bones' Hyland has already earned immediate playing time in year 1 as one of the more promising players in the conference long term. Hyland is clearly their best three point shooter, leading the team in makes (52) and percentage (42%). He averages 8.4 ppg and is third in assists on the team with 1.8 apg. Over the course of the year, Hyland has played his way into the starting lineup, and deservedly so. None of the other guys figure to play much in the contest barring a blowout, but add more depth to a team that likes to play fast. Jimmy 'Tre' Clark III hasn't shown too much in limited time at this point, but Jarren McAllister (a former Virginia Tech commit who I believe we showed interest in at some point) has shot the ball well when given the chance and Hason Ward looks like a promising big man long-term, having converted on 61% of his attempts on the year.

I think this game will be another one where it is clear we are in need of better depth, and we may run into a lull in the second half (not to the same degree as last year though) with guys clearly tired out. Hope we are okay with the turnovers, because if we can secure the ball well, we have a chance of staying in this one, even at their place. I think a late VCU run will probably put the game away, but would love to be wrong.

Predicted Score: VCU 73, GW 60. 10% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN thinks we have a 7.4% chance to snap a two game skid.
 

Delayed about seven minutes, which may not be a bad thing.
An angry VCU at home. What could go wrong?
Maybe they''ll be dispirited and we have nothing to lose.
Very small lineup for them. 6 7 tallest starter. Maybe twin towers Chase and Arnaldo today, especially if
3s not falling.

They said GW worked on a matchup zone in practice

Three times in a row Potter, exhausted already in the first half, turns the ball over when dribbling and dribbling
and double teamed with a bigger player.
What are we really learning for the future by having Armel, who has been great for us but could use a break anyway, handling the ball all the time to the point of exhaustion and turnovers. He can play the vast majority of the game and we don't have much else anyway. But let's pass a bit before being swamped.
 

At  the VCU game.  During a break, VCU’s 1979-1980 team was honored.  Among players in attendance was Penny Elliott.  This name should sound familiar to older fans.

Note: Toro out as second half devolves into a route.
We might somehow come back, but digging huge hole.

How the heck did that Toro shot not go in?

Is there an A-10 record for missed layups/chippies?

What would have the score been had VCU not been missing 4 of its top players? 

Ha ha. Mitola for 3. Awesome.