Lol, Anthony Grant says no A-10 team has ever gone undefeated in league play before and his team (Dayton) now has that chance. I bet the 2005/6 Colonials beg to differ.

This feels like bulletin board material to pull off the biggest upset since UMASS:

"Last road game of the season, a chance to go undefeated on the road in conference play, we were excited about that challenge," coach Anthony Grant said. "We've got one more game [versus GW]. We've got a chance to go undefeated in the league, which has never been done in the A-10."

Source: https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/recap?gameId=401170327


Why not? Dayton is certainly already looking past GW.

Would be an unbelievable end cap to an up and down year.

Last edited by cagwu (3/05/2020 7:56 am)

The technicality here is no A10 team has gone undefeated in conference play since the league switched to an 18 game conference schedule.  GW did go 16-0 as did St. Joe's with Jameer Sr. and two John Chaney coached Temple teams during the 1980's.

#3 Dayton Flyers

Date/Time: Saturday March 7, 2020 @ 7 PM at the UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio. A pretty bland name for an arena honestly. Final game before the A10 tournament!
Record Last Year: 21-12, 13-5 (3rd in Atlantic 10)
Preseason Ranks: 57th (KenPom), 46th (Bart Torvik), 55th (Sports Illustrated), 37th (CBS)
Projected Record: 29-2, 18-0 (1st in Atlantic 10)

Postseason Last Year: NIT; the Flyers were a 5 seed and fell to 4th seed Colorado 78-73 in the 1st round. The Flyers shot 55% in the game, showing early signs that they would be great offensively in the 2019-20 season. This was also the last time the Flyers lost in regulation - March 19th of last year! The Buffs seem to match up well with the Flyers, as they were also responsible for handing Dayton one of their two losses this season on a 3 at the buzzer.

Coaching Record: Anthony Grant, 3rd year at Dayton coaching his alma mater. Grant went 35-29 his first two years, but won 5 more conference games and had a 7 win improvement overall from year 1 to year 2. Previously went 117-85 in 6 seasons at Alabama with 3 NIT appearances and 1 NCAA appearance, and a dominant 76-25 in 3 seasons at VCU with 2 NCAA appearances and 1 NIT appearance. The Rams won an impressive 45 conference games those 3 years, finishing in 1st in all of them. Grant has also spent some time as an assistant - in the NBA for the Oklahoma City Thunder before coming to Dayton, as well as stops at Florida, Marshall, and Stetson. He is a native of Miami and first coached in the high school ranks at Miami Senior HS, where he was also a math teacher. Grant is clearly a smart guy who has experience coaching at all levels of basketball. 

All Time Record: 18-18, although Dayton has won 10 of the past 15 contests since our historic 2005-06 season when we defeated them 81-67 as the #8 team in the country. Last year's 72-66 home loss was up there with the opener against Stony Brook as among the worst losses of the season (emotionally, not margin of defeat). We made our first six shots of the game (including 4 threes), taking a 33-11 lead midway through the first half, but the Flyers cut the lead to 10 going into halftime and would outscore us 42-26 after the break for a 6 point comeback win on the road. Four Colonials finished in double figures - DJ (20), Maceo (13), Javier (12), and Justin (11).

Offensive Efficiency: 2nd (KenPom), 3rd (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 40th (KenPom), 30th (Bart Torvik)
Tempo: 216th (KenPom), 213th (Bart Torvik)

Key Returning Players:
Obadiah 'Obi' Toppin (RS SO; Ossining, NY) 14.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.8 apg; 67% FG, 52% 3-pt, 71% FT
      Last year against us: 4 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists; 2-5 FG in 30 minutes. Let's not kid ourselves, that's not happening again.

Jalen Crutcher (JR; Memphis, TN) 13.2 ppg, 4 rpg, 5.7 apg; 42% FG, 36% 3-pt, 71% FT
      Last year against us: 8 points, 5 rebounds, 11 assists; 2-8 FG, 0-4 3-pt, 4-4 FT in 39 minutes.

Ryan Mikesell (RS SR; Saint Henry, OH) 10.1 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 2.3 apg; 51% FG, 34% 3-pt, 81% FT
      Last year against us: 7 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists; 3-6 FG, 1-3 3-pt in 25 minutes.

Trey Landers (SR; Huber Heights, OH) 8.2 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 2 apg; 47% FG, 20% 3-pt, 69% FT
      Last year against us: 12 points, 7 rebounds; 5-11 FG, 0-1 3-pt, 2-2 FT in 27 minutes.

Key Losses:
Josh Cunningham (Graduated; Chicago, IL) 13.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.5 apg; 64% FG, 43% 3-pt, 62% FT
Jordan Davis (Transferred to Middle Tennessee; Irmo, SC) 9.8 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.9 apg; 40% FG, 33% 3-pt, 70% FT. Davis had 25 in the game against us last year, including 7 made threes.

Comments:
Coming into this season, Dayton was picked by most pundits to finish either 2nd or 3rd in the league. In a conference where pretty much every team was bringing most of their key contributors back, it was reasonable to assume that VCU and Davidson, the teams that finished in the top 2 last season, would finish at the summit once again. It was clear that Dayton had the talent to make the NCAA tournament, but concerns over whether some transfers being added into the fold would fit into the team right away placed Dayton just outside the top 40 to start the year.

Those concerns were quieted just 5 games into the season, and as the season progressed it was clear that Davidson and VCU were beneficiaries of a weak A10 last year. The Flyers beat Indiana State, Charleston Southern, and Omaha as expected to start, but absolutely dominated Georgia (by 19) and Virginia Tech (by 27) in Maui. UGA and VT were expected to finish towards the bottom of the SEC and ACC respectively, but it was the margin of victory for Dayton that suddenly put the college basketball world on notice - now there are flyers that peg Dayton as a potential final four team if the right matchups come their way (against less physical teams down low). The Flyers nearly won the tournament, but fell to Kansas by 6 in overtime, the current #1 team in the country.

It was also at this time that Obadiah 'Obi' Toppin introduced himself to the remaining people who had not previously seen his masterful play. Toppin coming into the year had already shown the potential to be a late first round pick, but he has since worked his way up to being a lottery pick. Obi is currently one of 10 semifinalists for the Naismith Trophy, along with Iowa's Luke Garza, Oregon's Payton Pritchard, Marquette's Markus Howard, San Diego State's Malachi Flynn (the Aztecs are also having a fantastic year), Seton Hall's Myles Powell, Maryland's Jalen Smith, Duke's Vernon Carey, and a pair of Kansas Jayhawk players in Devon Dotson and Udoka Azubuike. I would say it is probably a two man race between Garza and Toppin at this point, and Obi could definitely get the nod because nationally it wouldn't be a surprise if Dayton progressed further in the tournament than Iowa. Both great offensive teams, but Dayton is quite a bit better defensively. Obi is one of those rare talents that the A10 produces from time to time. There definitely hasn't been someone of his caliber in a while, but that's up for debate. We can only hope to stop him, because he is an efficient three level scorer - 63% from the field, and 39% from deep (he only takes about 2-3 threes per game), averaging just under 20 ppg. Toppin is also Dayton's leading rebounder (7.6 per game) and shot blocker (1.3 per game). He is also very good at passing out of the double team, and considering Dayton shoots almost 37% from deep, we could be in for a long game. Obi hasn't made fewer than 5 field goals in a game since Dayton's win over Grambling State, a game they didn't really need him to do much anyways. He has video game numbers - take a look at his game log. He averages nearly 8 made field goals a game, and has only shot under 50% from the field just three times this season (three great defensive teams - St. Louis, VCU, Colorado) and never under 40%. He's unreal. We can only hope to limit him. He went to nearby Mt. Zion for HS so I'm surprised we didn't take a look at him. Toppin did have some high major options like Mississippi State, Georgia, and Illinois so he didn't go completely under the radar.

Dayton's other three double figure scorers include junior Jalen Crutcher (14.8 ppg), senior Trey Landers (10.8 ppg), and Michigan transfer Ibi Watson (10.1 ppg). Crutcher (or rather clutcher given his late game heroics against SLU) originally committed to Chattanooga along with Terry to play for current UMass coach Matt McCall, but ended up signing with Dayton after McCall left for Amherst. He has a great assist to turnover ratio (almost 5:2), serving as the lead guard for the Flyer offense most of the time (he leads them in minutes played). Crutcher is also a pretty good rebounder, money from the line (87%, best on team), and their best shooter from distance, converting on 41% of his attempts from distance with 67 made (also leads team). If there is a guy we have to run off the line, it's him, although he will probably still make a couple deep threes on us. Landers is a key piece for the Flyers. While he isn't a leader in any category, he does pretty much every thing well as a glue guy - an efficient shooter from the field at 58% (better inside than outside the arc), a willing rebounder (6.8 rpg, second after Obi), a capable passer (2.4 apg, third on team), and also one of Dayton's best on-ball defenders. He is only 61% from the line, something to monitor if in some impossible scenario the game is still close late. Watson is the sixth man on the team, and probably is the best one in the conference. He can be a microwave scorer off the bench, and catch fire pretty quickly - he's 38% from distance on the year, 85% from the line, and 50% overall. Watson doesn't do much else, but is really good at his role as a shooter.

Ryan Mikesell, much like fellow senior Landers, fits in well with this Dayton team as a complimentary option down low. Mikesell's importance to the team became that much more important after Florida transfer forward Johnson left the program after experiencing lingering effects of mononucleosis. His scoring is actually down (8.6 ppg) from last season when he averaged double figures, but he provides some rebounding and gives the Flyers the option to play through the post, where he too can find shooters dotted along the perimeter (1.9 apg). He has three point range but isn't consistent from there - he's just 26% on the year. Rodney Chatman, a transfer from Chattanooga, can serve as a secondary ball-handler in the offense or give Crutcher a breather as the main PG. Chatman is second in the team in assists (2.4 apg) and can also score at a decent clip (7.9 ppg on 41% shooting from the field and 36% from deep). He is also Dayton's best on-ball defender, averaging 1.2 steals a contest. 

The remainder of Dayton's rotation consists of Nebraska transfer Jordy Tshimanga, sophomore Dwayne Cohill, and former JUCO Jhery Matos. Tshimanga is a pretty good finisher (65%) and provides some rebounding in limited time, but can often find himself in foul trouble pretty quickly. Cohill, the other sophomore other than Obi, doesn't see a ton of time, but he's no slouch as a shooter - 50% from the field, 36% from 3, and 76% from the line. He would be a good rotation piece on any team. Matos doesn't see too much time either, and is the only Flyer in the rotation to shoot under 40% (33% on the year). He too is fairly good from deep though (37% on the year). His last name means "to kill" in Spanish, and given our luck with random guys going off on us, he may truly kill us in the game.

It goes without saying that this game will be tough. Dayton is #1 in the country in effective field goal percentage and 2-point field goal percentage. Our defense is probably going to be torched possession after possession. However, I do hope to see us fare a bit better on the offensive end. Dayton is a good defensive team (top 40) and we have struggled to score against any team with a top 100 defense (minus Duquesne I guess) so this will be good practice to improve on that and I hope the shots go in more frequently today. Also hope JNJ gets more involved offensively, and not by having him take threes. We are getting healthier, so at the very least I'm expecting to see more guys get in the game. Since we have more bodies, maybe we can take more risks and get a bit more aggressive with our ball pressure. If GW fans could be "grant"ed a wish, it would be that Dayton take it easier on us if/when we get down by 30 at some point in the game.

This is the final preview of the season. I appreciate everyone who took time to actually read it. (And from the Fordham thread, I appreciate the kind words GW73! I too hope to write more about a winning GW next year. The future is bright.)

Predicted Score: Dayton 83, GW 58. 2% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us a 0.9% chance to win. The line has moved between DAY -22 and -21.5 in the past day, both which honestly seem a bit generous.
Cue the gif!

As posted in another thread, do believe this--and the A-10 tournament is a trap game for Dayton.
A gaudy record can bite you this time of year.
On the other hand, since every game is a trap game for us, not holding out a huge amount of hope.
Maybe 3 or 4 percent.
Not impossible to make it a game, but a blowout would be far more likely.
Be fine with result if we let them beat us at home to lull them into a false sense of security
and then beat Dayton during our unexpected sweep of the A-10  tournament. Of course, roughly  same odds as a Tulsi Gabbard presidency. 

Got to have this one to get that first round bye in Brooklyn that we all took for granted just one week ago.  It is not hopeless.  ESPN game predictor does give GW a ..08 percent chance of winning this game.  Even rounding up, that means GW would win 1 out of every 100 times we played.

We’re Battling folks!

Jamison Battle is a FLAMETHROWER

A firestorm!

Shock the World GW! 

When VCU threw their full court press at Us we had NO answer. Against this zone right now we have NO answer. Our offense really sputters against pressure

Dayton clearly came out sleepwalking to start this game. If I were a Dayton fan I'd be a bit concerned with their tendency to "turn on and off the intensity switch" in each game. They could run into some trouble with the 7-10 seed(especially if it's an underachieving BCS team) that they'll see in the 2nd round of the NCAA tournament. For what it's worth, all 3 ESPN guys on Gameday picked Dayton to win, but GW to cover the 20.5. We should also be encouraged about how well GW is playing so far, hopefully they can carry this effort into Wednesday's game against Fordham. 

Their zone is shutting us down.  Toro has some moves and experience, need to get him in the game.