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8/03/2020 9:19 am  #1


Is a Bubble the Answer?

Like so many things pertaining to the pandemic, we know more about sports in August than we did in April.  We know that golfers can high five one another and likely be alright (though the elbow bump is still advised).  We know that tennis matches can take place but that ballboys and ballgirls catching sweaty towels is not advisable.  We also know that team sports operating within a bubble (basketball, hockey) have a leg up, at least for the time being, on team sports which allow their home teams to go home at night (baseball).

College football is for the most part moving to a "conference only" schedule with the rare exception (perhaps we'll see an ACC-SEC challenge).  College basketball has not pivoted to this model yet but that might be just a question of time.  My question is whether the A10 would be better served moving to a conference-only season played within a bubble?  Some schools that are allowing students to return to campus intend to wrap up the first semester by Thanksgiving to help reduce travel.  Many schools such as GW will not be offering in-person classes during the first semester.  Here is how I would see the bubble working:

1) Teams arrive on or around December 1.  Basketball players will need to have taken their first semester finals before arriving, though they could take online exams in December if necessary.  
2) I would hold the season in a Metro area that supports two league members.  Candidates would include Philadelphia, Washington, DC and Richmond.  Due to costs associated with this venture, I would select Richmond.
3) Practices and scrimmages would be held over a 2-3 week period followed by the start of the season in mid-late December.
4) Rather than play two games per week as is normally the case for the most part, teams would play three games every two weeks.  This stretches out the schedule a bit and allows for building contingencies that may arise due to Covid.
5) The A10 would conduct an aggressive fundraising campaign.  This would be promoted on school and conference websites as well as during streamed  and televised broadcasts.  Plus, this would be directly marketed to season ticket holders and donors of the 14 schools.  The message would be along the lines of "while we know you'd like to be at the game,   we've come up with the next best thing."  All donations would be used to help offset the cost of staging the season..housing, food, testing for Covid, personnel needed to run games, etc.  

Obviously, the A10 will not be in a position to test as frequently as many professional sports leagues.  And this of course is a serious downside to this idea.  

Finally, the bubble may or may not be a season-long remedy.  If conditions are such that practically all campuses are bringing students back to campus for the spring semester, the teams could return as well.

Lots of reasons to try this, and not to try this.  Assuming fans won't be at games this season (not yet a foregone conclusion but certainly a possibility), would you rather see an A10 bubble that eliminates travel and hopefully reduces the chances for an infection to spread, or would you rather see traditional home and away games (which of course may not look at all traditional)?

 

8/03/2020 9:34 am  #2


Re: Is a Bubble the Answer?

Admire the effort Gwmayhem, but there is as much of a chance of this (a bubble) happening as GW being asked to join the ACC. Not only would it be cost prohibitive for schools but would receive huge criticism as another example of the divide between students and student-athletes. In this era of shrinking budgets, cutting of sports etc. this would be a very tough political sell with schools in the A-10. Kids are being asked to study remotely at the same time a bubble for certain athletes is being planned. Not going to happen for one sport either.

If you want college basketball at any point this year, I suggest you pray for one of three things: an effective therapeutic, a vaccine before year end, or the virus miraculously disappearing due to unknown factors such as unrecognized herd immunity (more people have either had the virus or have antibodies/immunity than.we know). I suspect the latter is a near impossibility based on everything I read but we can always hope.

 

8/03/2020 11:39 am  #3


Re: Is a Bubble the Answer?

I agree with GWRising and also appreciate Gwmayhem's suggestion/scenario for a college bubble. Unless there is a cure/vaccine or COVID just miraculously disappears, you can't have any money-generating college sports. In my opinion, the only way you could use a bubble with college football and basketball is if the NCAA just comes clean and says WE REALLY NEED THE MONEY(not the "Kids Need To Be In School For Their Mental and Physical Well-Being" B.S.) and comes up with a 1-time only plan to pay players for a 2020-2021 Bubble Season.

I'm sure the BCS conferences would be willing to shell out millions to cover all the lower conferences playing in their own bubbles because of all the money they'll recoup on the back end from TV contracts, playoff/NCAA Tournament, etc.  Having college football and basketball while the universities are pretty much closed would be a terrible look and make the NCAA look a lot worse than they already do!!

 

8/11/2020 6:51 am  #4


Re: Is a Bubble the Answer?

Reading on the Athletic that money issues are quickly coming to the fore for MBB. I think the Lack or guaranteed games and the ability or desire to guarantee games by the big boys are going derail the seasons of all but the biggest conferences.

And if Presidents did not care or were ignorant about the day-to-day $$$ of college sports before how much time do they have when severe financial pressures are being exerted on the schools as a whole?

 

8/11/2020 6:59 am  #5


Re: Is a Bubble the Answer?

The big point is until our collective behavior include nearly universal masking, keeping at least 6 feet distant etc all this stuff we want to see happen won’t happen because 1) the virus is not being curtailed In the US and 2)!our ability to tamp down future outbreaks Is currently zero.

 

8/11/2020 7:58 am  #6


Re: Is a Bubble the Answer?

FredD wrote:

The big point is until our collective behavior include nearly universal masking, keeping at least 6 feet distant etc all this stuff we want to see happen won’t happen because 1) the virus is not being curtailed In the US and 2)!our ability to tamp down future outbreaks Is currently zero.

Right, I mean, look at New Zealand who just announced a brand new lock down after finding FOUR cases of community spread after 102 days of zero community spread cases: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12355759

That is fewer cases than what the St. Louis Cardinals are dealing with.

 

8/11/2020 10:43 am  #7


Re: Is a Bubble the Answer?

Well, we know we're not New Zealand.  Or for that matter, we're not practically every other country in the world.  Our country's leadership either ignored all of the warning signs or stood by idly.  No matter the case, we as a country did not do what needed to be done.  And then to compound matters, our leadership emphasized opening up the country way too soon.  All to get one pathetic schmuck re-elected.  

The irony is that we have not seen any evidence that playing the sport would necessarily contribute towards spreading the virus.  Look at the NBA...no new cases since they have entered their bubble.  There were concerns about touching one another, sweating on top of one another, even giving one another high fives.  So far, nothing about playing the sport itself should indicate a cancellation of the season.

New information about horribly detrimental effects to the heart have surfaced.  This of course should not be ignored.  But again, not an issue if none of the players have the virus.

Make no mistake that much of the university president's concerns are over liability.  Players are not being forced to play and will not receive any penalties if they choose not to.  Nevertheless, school administrators must see themselves in a position to be sued big time if they opt to stage a season.  Asking players to sign a liability option is a step in the right direction (give up your right to sue the school or don't play) but this would assuredly be challenged if God forbid a player were to lose his or her life as a result of contracting the virus while playing (and by many more if this virus were to spread to other players, even unknowingly).

Jim Harbaugh and several other football coaches (and players) have pointed out that the structure and  discipline required to be a part of a team and play their sport would make these players less at risk than the general student population.  Ironically, he's probably right about that.  A cancelled season means an athlete becomes part of the general student population and would likely be more susceptible to the disease. 

Yes, it is better to err on the side of caution but as Thomas pointed out on a different thread, the notion of consecutive NCAA basketball tournaments being cancelled would be financially devastating.  Unfortunately, I can envision a scenario (I realize most disagree with this) where the Power 5 conferences along with the Big East and maybe the AAC play their conference seasons and stage their own private NCAA Tournament.  I do think we will start to see some smaller and midlevel conferences cancelling their seasons (or pushing to the spring) which will create a domino effect among such conferences.  The Big 10 stands to lose enormous dollars by not playing (particularly if football also is not to be played); the Atlantic 10 stands to lose far less.   

     Thread Starter
 

8/11/2020 11:03 am  #8


Re: Is a Bubble the Answer?

Like I wrote in the other thread(that I sort of derailed from the potential of the 2022-2023 team!! LOL), I am pessimistic that our collective behavior will change because certain political figures, online conspiracy and just plain ignorance has convinced a large number of people that COVID is fake, exaggerated and/or an evil "deep state" government plot to control and kill us!! So, we are just down to 2 solutions, a cure or the virus just magically disappears/goes dormant!! Other than that, nothing is going to change in the upcoming months. 

FredD, when it comes to college football/sports, it looks like the safety of the players will win out over the GREED of the BCS and college academia higher-ups, as the Big 10 and Pac 12 are leaning towards cancelling the season. The other 3 BCS conferences will be forced to follow suit at some point. College basketball is a bit fortunate because they have about 3 months before they have to make some hard decisions. I guess college basketball can play the waiting game and hope COVID is somehow eliminated and they can complete most of the 2020-2021 season.

About the college presidents being aware of the financial pressures, I don't think ANYONE could have predicted that a global pandemic would wipe out sports for up to a year!! I believe most of them thought, no matter how bad things get with wins-losses, student applications, graduation rates, etc...We Will Still Get That NCAA Tournament, TV Contract and Playoff/Bowl Game Money, and that will solve all of our problems!! 

I'm going to ask this question again here, what was the dollar amount that GW lost when the NCAA tournament was cancelled in March? I know that GW's cut of the NCAA tournament bag is miniscule compared to the BCS blue bloods, but it's probably a lot compared to the average every day business/institution. GW's cut of the NCAA tournament money would have been higher this year when you consider that Dayton was one of the favorites to make the Final 4 and win the title, as conferences get more money with each win that a member team gets in the NCAA tournament. What if Dayton won the 2020 National Championship??

Gwmayhem,  I can't imagine the amount of angst that college basketball officials are feeling now about the possibility of no NCAA tournament for 2 straight years!! At least college football was able to cash in on their entire season 2019-2020 season.

 

8/11/2020 11:52 am  #9


Re: Is a Bubble the Answer?

Thomas, it's hard to give a precise answer to what GW lost out on this past year but I can provide you with what the indicators are.  First, how many teams reach the tournament.  This past year, Dayton was of course a shoe-in.  Richmond, URI and SLU were all sitting on the bubble.  And of course, another school could have won the A10 tournament.  Reaching the tournament is worth one unit and each win in the tournament counts as another unit.  And, the payout isn't just for the year that the result takes place but it continues for five years thereafter.  So, GW just got finished earning revenue from its last appearance at the Dance in 2014-15.

Each conference splits revenue differently.  Unless there has been a recent change, the A10 has a 75/25 split which means that 25% of the revenue is split evenly among all 14 schools and 75% goes to the schools based on performance in the tournament.  Some conferences split everything evenly but the A10 does not.  

Finally, in addition to NCAA tournament revenue, member schools receive revenue based on the conference tournament results as well as entry and exit fees paid by schools who join or leave the conference.

Adding all of this up, GW was not slated to receive very much this year relative to other years and other member schools.  It's six year pay-out from 2014-15 was in its final year with no such revenue scheduled for the future (until they reach the Dance again).  Dayton may have gone on a long run, and perhaps 1-2 other member schools would have made the field, but again, GW receives 1/14 of the 25% take from this.

By the way, all schools received roughly 30% of the revenue pool that otherwise would have been available.  So, the school did receive something but not very much. 

     Thread Starter
 

8/11/2020 12:23 pm  #10


Re: Is a Bubble the Answer?

The article in The Athletic posed an interesting concept:  creating 44 bubbles around the country, for the purpose of creating non-conference games in the safest environment.  What it didn't say, but what it implied, is that the teams would have to be tested and kept in their own bubbles at their own schools for I'm guessing 2 weeks before this mini-tournament would begin.  Then, at each site, the teams would play six non-conference games over a 2-week period.  The article broke down each of their mythical pods, identifying the teams and the location.

For our pod, the article proposed the Charles. E. as the venue and the 8 schools involved (both men's and women's) as GW, GMU, Coppin St., Loyola (MD), UMBC, Morgan St., Mount Saint Mary's, and Towson.

While I think any such concept is too vast in scope to actually make work without months of planning, in a faux world it is somewhat intriguing.  Here's the full article:  https://theathletic.com/1980558/2020/08/10/college-basketball-nonconference-schedule-national-covid-19-coronavirus/

 

Last edited by BGF (8/11/2020 12:25 pm)

 

8/11/2020 1:31 pm  #11


Re: Is a Bubble the Answer?

BGF wrote:

The article in The Athletic posed an interesting concept:  creating 44 bubbles around the country, for the purpose of creating non-conference games in the safest environment.  What it didn't say, but what it implied, is that the teams would have to be tested and kept in their own bubbles at their own schools for I'm guessing 2 weeks before this mini-tournament would begin.  Then, at each site, the teams would play six non-conference games over a 2-week period.  The article broke down each of their mythical pods, identifying the teams and the location.

For our pod, the article proposed the Charles. E. as the venue and the 8 schools involved (both men's and women's) as GW, GMU, Coppin St., Loyola (MD), UMBC, Morgan St., Mount Saint Mary's, and Towson.

While I think any such concept is too vast in scope to actually make work without months of planning, in a faux world it is somewhat intriguing.  Here's the full article:  https://theathletic.com/1980558/2020/08/10/college-basketball-nonconference-schedule-national-covid-19-coronavirus/

 

If this was to happen and GW played 6 non-conference games against Coppin St., Loyola (MD), UMBC, Morgan St., Mount Saint Mary's and Towson, what do you think their record would be? It's easy to say 6-0 but I'm not sure that is the case. 

 

8/11/2020 2:53 pm  #12


Re: Is a Bubble the Answer?

Gwmayhem,  thanks for the breakdown. I'm not surprised at the 75-25 split in favor of the A10 team(s) that makes the tournament because it's harder for the A10 to produce teams capable of making deep NCAA tournament runs. I'm assuming that the BCS conferences do a 50-50 split because you often have a middle-of-the-pack BCS team making a deep tournament run, in addition to the blue bloods like Duke, Kansas and Kentucky. With all the money that CBS/Turner pays for the NCAA tournament, I'm assuming that 1/14th of that 25% given to A10 NCAA tournament teams is still a substantial amount of money, relatively speaking.

BGF,  The Athletic article is behind a paywall so I couldn't read all of it, but it is an interesting concept as you wrote. Where did they place Georgetown and Maryland?? Would they allow GW and George Mason to compete in the same bubble since they are both in the A10? I'd like to see this concept with all the D.C. schools(GW, Georgetown, American U, Howard) and 4 others locals. I'm assuming that MASN and the other local stations would gladly broadcast these games. There is still about 3 months left for college basketball to organize something like this. 

 

8/11/2020 3:21 pm  #13


Re: Is a Bubble the Answer?

Thomas, regarding The Athletic article, they put AU and Howard at the adult table with Maryland and Georgetown while GW and Mason got the children's table.  No real rhyme or reason as to how or why they divided the pools as they did.  Richmond found its way to the Gtown/Terp pod as well.

At one point in time, believe it or not, the ACC split everything evenly among all of its schools.  I think they still do.  When Maryland bolted for the Big 10, everyone talked about the lucrative Big 10 TV deals that would make Maryland athletics financially solvent over time (they did not receive a full share at first as new conference members often don't).  What wasn't talked about too much was that Maryland's take in ACC revenues was exactly the same as say Wake Forest's.  While Maryland Football wasn't a historic money-maker, the Terps received much revenue from men's basketball plus they were very successful at women's basketball and a number of other sports which did produce some revenue albeit not tons.  Maryland needed an influx of cash and not only would the move to the Big 10 allow for this but it would also mean moving away from receiving 1/14 of ACC revenue.  (It had been 1/12 for a number of years but expanded to 14 in Maryland's last year in the ACC.)

     Thread Starter
 

8/11/2020 8:13 pm  #14


Re: Is a Bubble the Answer?

Gwmayhem,  they put GW at the kiddie table?? We know GW has been struggling in recent years, but they are still 3rd to Georgetown and Maryland in the pecking order among local D.C.area schools, and if a quarantine bubble ever did happen with local teams, you would certainly need GW to be in a grouping with Maryland, Georgetown, AU and Howard. How do you think Maryland and Georgetown would feel about this idea?? I'm guessing they'd prefer to play in a bubble with California schools instead of local ones!! LOL

I understand that Maryland's move to the Big 10 was strictly for football revenue, but you brought up an interesting point about the basketball revenue for men and women's basketball(Maryland soccer, lacrosse and baseball has also been pretty good) in the ACC. Even though the ACC revenue is split between 14(or 16) teams, being in a conference with Duke and North Carolina, and having the ACC tournament in Greensboro every year has to be a huge money maker. Maryland is also somewhat of a charter member of the ACC, and has a rich tradition in a lot of sports in the ACC. Going 2-7 in the Big 10 and playing in front of sparse home crowds every year can't be a pleasant experience, even with the all the money from the Big 10. 

What do you guys think of the Pac 12 and Big 10 cancelling fall sports? Or more importantly, do you think there is any way possible that the remaining FBS/BCS conferences(SEC, ACC, Big 12, AAC, C-USA, Sun Belt) will just have their season and crown a national champion in January? The plan appears to be that the other 6 conferences will play, but that could be just wishful thinking from hardcore college football fans. I do feel a little bad for HERVE and the Buckeye fans because Justin Fields looked like he was primed to have a historic season for Ohio State this year. 

 

8/22/2020 5:15 pm  #15


Re: Is a Bubble the Answer?

Not the most encouraging sign: https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/status/1297202281964855300

Last edited by trops_fc (8/22/2020 5:16 pm)

 

8/22/2020 5:25 pm  #16


Re: Is a Bubble the Answer?

Given the lack of virus management nationwide and what is happening at UNC etc there will be no season.

 

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