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9/26/2019 11:39 am  #1


Season outlook

Okay - I read LSF post and decided to get it started.

Excited for the season because of the unknowns with style and new players.  Much more excited than the last 2 years.

Based only on what I have read, here are my thoughts.

4 guard, 1 big lineup to start most games (Mazz, Arnel, Maceo, 1 unknown, Toro)

Defense- due to size, standard 3/4 press is constant, heavy on ball pressure to help offset the size issues.

 

9/26/2019 9:45 pm  #2


Re: Season outlook

I think one way to gauge how others feel about the upcoming season is to start a poll. The last one I did got 46 votes which was pretty encouraging to me. Seeing over 100 people sign up on this site is a good sign, and hopefully more will weigh in as the season approaches. Planning on going back to doing previews this year (won't be as comprehensive as 3MW, but will do some stat digging on all the teams we play). I have already written the OOC previews more or less. 

The 3MW preview does more or less outline my thoughts entering this season, although I still would be surprised if we finished anywhere close to 352nd in pace like Siena did last year (it is true that JC has never played with a top 100 pace on the offensive end, but I think somewhere around national average which we played last year could be the expectation moving forward). The Saints lost their top seven scorers from the Patsos era, which forced JC to not only start Pickett right away, but a couple other freshmen as well. Besides talent, there just simply weren't many options for him to go with.

I don't think he is walking into the same situation at GW. Minus DJ and Terry, pretty much everyone of significance is back. Mojo was starting to recruit a more guard oriented attack during the end of his tenure which might pay off right away under JC. Having said that, the team was pretty lousy shooting the ball given the number of guards (we were legitimately one of the 25 worst teams in D1 when it came to offensive efficiency), which might cap our ceiling in year 1 (which is okay). He has already addressed perimeter shooting with the next class. Ball is showing improvement from deep. Brelsford shot 48% in the past year which is awesome, and Seymour also awaits on the wing.

In the preview, it was mentioned that Justin had improved his turnover issues from his freshman year somewhat. While that may be true, there were still too many times in which he was still careless with the ball last year. Although it was partly due to the slow pace, Siena ranked 8th in the country in turnovers per game at 9.8. That leads me to believe JC is going to put an emphasis on how careful we are handling the ball. Mazzulla simply got his pocket picked too many times and made some careless passes at times. While he may hold the most potential distributing the ball (and he will probably still continue to start), I wouldn't be surprised if his minutes go down somewhat this year. I'm not sure how much JC will tolerate turnovers, and he seems to not be slowing down in recruiting more guards. Shooting 45% from the field is respectable, but no one respected his three point shot, and shooting under 70% from the line is bad. Granted, the latter might not even matter much as our free throw attempts figure to go way down this year as we shift to being a more perimeter shooting team. I think having more options will help him to not force the issue so much and chuck the ball towards the rim. If he can facilitate and defend at the high level we know he can, that can be sufficient. Don't get me wrong, Mazz is one of my favorite players and his ability to keep the team together as we were clearly lacking in coaching (with all due respect to Mojo who has the ability to improve on that aspect moving forward; he already has the recruiting chops) was admirable, but PG is a focal point in JC teams and he will need to improve.

Armel was a lot better with the ball in his hands. He too is not great from deep, but a guard who can penetrate and kick it out will be beneficial in the PnR system. I think Armel's biggest issue was his confidence, and when he was fully healthy during conference play he showed potential. He appears to have taken a leadership role from the various videos during the offseason which bodes well for this season. I may be crazy to think he can average double figures, but with the right pieces around him it could be possible. Had I voted in the poll I created, I probably would have cast my vote for him as the breakout player this year.

Jameer and Shawn definitely do have the chance to start, and I am definitely of the impression that Jameer can carve out a role right away and see his minutes increase over the course of the season. His athleticism is very impressive (definitely more vertical than his dad was), and he has the hops to block shots pretty consistently on the defensive end. While he may need time to develop securing the ball (he has only been playing basketball for two years!) I think he will find a way into the rotation one way or the other.

I really don't know what to expect from Shawn this year. He seems to be able to move laterally pretty well on the defensive end, but he seems kind of thin and may need to add some weight. By all accounts he is a decent shooter with good athleticism.

I'm glad that the writer decided to spend a few lines praising Juice. Quite frankly, he should have played more, and we saw great potential in the last four games of the season. While I did have some concerns before last season whether he would be a good jump shooter given his funky stroke, Juice put those assumptions to bed pretty quickly. I'm not sure that he will compete for starter minutes, but we should try to get him in there early and often. His versatility will pay dividends in JC's system, and if he can continue to hit threes at a high rate, he might be able to play a small 4 at times when we go 4 out and 1 in motion on offense. I like him as a sixth man, and wouldn't be surprised if he becomes one of JC's favorite players this year given his work ethic.

I'm not sure how good of a defender Jamison will be, but he played AAU ball for D1 Minnesota which was one of the best teams on the circuit last year. They were very disciplined passing the ball from what I've seen. On a team that I'm not sure has too much shooting this year, I'm sure we'll see Battle out there. Graham Bousley is a great offensive mind, and I'll be interested to see how we use him. I'm expecting to see a lot of kick outs and threes from the corner from Jamison this year.

Maceo already broke out last year, but I still think he can kick it up another gear this year. Yes he can make threes, but he made them at just a 35% clip in a year where he had some pretty terrible attempts. Given he's an 88% FT shooter, there is reason to believe he could hit closer to 40% assuming he actually gets high quality attempts (and JC and his staff are all about assessing how good each shot we take is - that will be refreshing after last year). I would expect his shot attempts to remain consistent, but what I really like about his game is his explosion taking it to the rim. I don't know if we'll see that much in JC's offense but I hope we do. That game he had a driving dunk (I think it was Duquesne?) caught me really off guard. I'm interested to see how he evolves as a defender, as there aren't many holes in his game otherwise.

The 3MW article was very well researched as they even referenced Mezie's 12 pt/6 rb Stony Brook game which was his first ever experience playing college basketball with DJ sitting out for a violation of team rules. Quite frankly, it hurt this team's long term future to keep Mezie riding the pine all year (and also after that kind of performance, it was head-scratching that he disappeared for the rest of the season). At the very least, we should have red-shirted him given how little he played. I have said this a couple times now, but it was very telling the Mezie scored the most points among the freshmen despite playing the least of the three. While there is an expectation that Mezie will improve in all aspects this year with a year of college ball under his belt, I think his strengths and weaknesses were pretty well defined. He showed he could be a pretty good shooter, but instead of playing him more off the ball and giving him more shot attempts, we kept giving him the ball and asking him to create his own shot, which is quite frankly tough for many guys his height, regardless of class year and led to a ton of turnovers. Defensively, Mezie has long arms and I think that could work real well in Jamion's Mayhem system. While Mezie probably still has to improve his foot speed at the college level, he definitely has the tools to be a disruptive player.

The frontcourt will not be a major emphasis in JC's system, but I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't at least try to play through Arnaldo at times this season. Arnaldo might be the best rebounder Jamion has ever coached. Given JC's 3-pt friendly system, I'm sure all the bigs have been practicing their shot from distance. Arnaldo has been eager in the past to develop a jumper, but it has never been consistent. Still, it helps to have a guy who can finish at the rim at a high level. We definitely missed his presence last year.

Javier seems to have a good stroke from deep, but somehow that didn't translate to makes. He definitely needs to improve his instincts near the rim (he jumped a bit too early at times and got the ball knocked out of his hands) but the more I've thought about it, the more I feel he could definitely carve out a sizable role in this offense assuming he can make threes at a higher clip this year. I have a feeling those numbers could definitely go up with practice. His shot-blocking ability was one of the most confusing yet amazing things to come out of last season.

Chase is very mobile, but I always have reservations in terms of expectations for freshman bigs (especially on defense). I think he will be very solid down the road though. He has shown in the Kenner league (which by the way was also mentioned in the article, I wonder how many casual fans will even know what that is) the ability to knock down threes, which could turn out to be an inside track to getting some playing time. 

Apart from Amir's eligibility, the other wild card I think we have this season is Adam. I have talked several times now about how we misused him (it was really criminal how many minutes he played at times and yet was not taking a SINGLE shot due to poor play design). Mitola may end up being one of the best shooters from distance on the team this season, and that could lead to JC playing him as a specialist here and there. He might even be able to handle the ball some.

 

9/27/2019 12:28 pm  #3


Re: Season outlook

I'm going to say that this is a good guess as to 80% of the starting roster (Amir Harris' ruling notwithstanding)

Last edited by BM (9/27/2019 12:28 pm)

 

9/27/2019 2:08 pm  #4


Re: Season outlook

I like it.  Bus attendance roughly the same percentage as game attendance, but hopefully not for long.

What I'm most interested in seeing is GW's defense.  Does JC want to play pressure-filled, full-court or 3/4 court defense much of the game with this group?  If so, does this team have enough depth to play that way?  Will this team be focused on turning teams over and scoring in transition? At Siena, he did not have the firepower, plus he had Pinkett who is a very talented big guard (not a speedster) to run the show.  Will be interesting to see if JC goes back to his MSM style (which flustered the hell out of GW when MSM won at Smith Center in 2012. 

 

9/27/2019 3:35 pm  #5


Re: Season outlook

That is a fucking great pic!  Thanks BM!  Starting to get pretty psyched abut the season and some excitement on the court.

 

9/29/2019 10:15 am  #6


Re: Season outlook

My fantasy is that he can coach to talent and there is more on the team than the last 2 years have shown. My hope is some penetration and defense of same. Baring that my expectation is good consistent effort and some development. A surprise shooter etc.

 

10/01/2019 7:33 am  #7


Re: Season outlook

PKGW wrote:

Okay - I read LSF post and decided to get it started.

Excited for the season because of the unknowns with style and new players. Much more excited than the last 2 years.

Based only on what I have read, here are my thoughts.

4 guard, 1 big lineup to start most games (Mazz, Arnel, Maceo, 1 unknown, Toro)

Defense- due to size, standard 3/4 press is constant, heavy on ball pressure to help offset the size issues.

I would be VERY surprised if Jameer Nelson isn't a starter from day 1, or at least close to it.  He's easily the most talented guard on the team.

My expectation is Jameer Nelson, Amir Harris, Maceo Jack, Toro and 1 other - probably Mazzula - would start.  Potter, to me, fills the offense-off-the-bench role.  I'm assuming Harris is eligible until we hear otherwise (and he will be easily our best defender).

 

 

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