Towson Tigers

Date/Time: Tuesday November 5th @ 7:00 at the SECU Arena in Towson, MD.
Record Last Year: 10-22, 6-12 (T-8th in the CAA)
Preseason Ranks: 161st (KenPom), 143rd (Bart Torvik), 210th (Sports Illustrated), 213th (CBS)
Projected Record: 18-10, 13-5 (2nd in the CAA)
Postseason Last Year: None.
Coaching Record: Pat Skerry, 124-137 in 8 seasons at Towson, including a CIT appearance in 2013-14.

All Time Record: 10-1, with the lone loss coming 57-56 at their place during the 1980-81 season. We have won the past nine contests since, including a 68-64 win last year at the Smith Center. Terry led the way with 24 points with some clutch late threes, and DJ added 19. Unfortunately neither is still on the team so hopefully someone steps up from deep. The duo combined to go 6-11 for three as we shot 42% from the land of plenty on just 19 attempts. An uncharacteristically soft Towson defense was prone to being torched from 3 all of last season so I'm sure that was an area of emphasis for Skerry this season.

Offensive Efficiency: 146th (KenPom), 104th (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 195th (KenPom), 201st (Bart Torvik)
Tempo: 337th (KenPom), 345th (Bart Torvik)

Key Returning Players:
Brian Fobbs (SR; Rochester, NY) 17.5 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 1.3 apg; 45% FG, 37% 3-pt, 80% FT.
        Last year against us: 17 pts, 6 rbs; 7-15 FG, 1-5 3-pt, 2-2 FT in 33 minutes.
Tobias 'T.J.' Howard (SR; Suwanee, GA) 10.2 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 2.5 apg; 36% FG, 35% 3-pt, 75% FT.
        Last year against us: 7 pts, 2 rbs, 3 asts; 3-9 FG, 0-4 3-pt, 1-2 FT in 33 minutes.
Nakye Sanders (RS SR; Staten Island, NY) 8.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg; 52% FG, 39% 3-pt, 69% FT.
        Last year against us: 10 pts, 3 rbs; 4-8 FG, 2-2 FT in 23 minutes.

Key Losses:
Jordan McNeil (Graduated; Baltimore, MD) 6.6 ppg, 1.2 rpg, 1.2 apg; 38% FG, 27% 3-pt, 73% FT.

Comments:
I'm assuming we agreed to a home-and-home with the Tigers last season itself, otherwise I'm not sure this is an ideal first game to start the season. The tweet below sums up my reaction:

Anthony Giordano @GoSBU93 Oct 30 
Replying to @A10Talk
Why the hell is GW opening AT Towson?

Unlike last year where McNeil was the only returning player of significance, Towson brings back virtually everyone on their team (29th nationally in minutes continuity), and while McNeil was a rotation player, he might have been the worst shooter they had so it might help them that his eligibility has expired. 

We also have the extra challenge of trying to beat them at their place. It has been 10 years since we last began a season on the road (2009-10, when we defeated another CAA team, UNC Wilmington, 76-71 behind Aaron Ware's 16 point effort, maybe the second best victory against the Seahawks). 

Anyways, back to the Tigers. In what has been coined "Skerry Ball" (it only makes sense we are facing them not even a week after Halloween), the Tigers look for shots closer to the hoop, using their bruising frontline to clean up the glass and generate second chance opportunities off any misses. The Tigers ranked 37th in the country in offensive rebounds per game and 32nd in rebound margin, while finishing 340th last year in three point attempts, and 333rd in three point field goals per game, four categories which reflect these traits. Offensively, the Tigers were guilty of taking inefficient midrange jumpers like us last year, and the lack of ball movement resulted in them being one of the worst teams in assists per game (347th nationally). Defensively, their perimeter shell was softer than they usually are, finishing 319th in steals per game and 345th in turnovers forced. While their interior rim protection was fairly good as always, teams were never taken out of their comfort zone operating in the halfcourt with the mediocre defense along the perimeter. 

Towson will be led by a senior-laden backcourt of Tobias 'T.J.' Howard and Brian Fobbs, both who previously spent time at the JUCO level. If you squint enough, you can definitely see Fobbs as a poor man's James Harden. Although the refs did not blow the whistle every time he drove to the rim like they do for Harden (Fobbs averaged just over three free throws a game) he converted them at a good rate, and shares the same height as JH, with both players standing at 6'5". The lefty from upstate NY can also stroke it from deep. This is important because Towson, as mentioned previously, is not a team that aims to beat you from deep (the Fobbs and Howard pairing accounted for 62% of Towson's total 3PA). For a Towson team that couldn't get much going offensively, Fobbs was a bright light. Howard, a former Western Kentucky Hilltopper, is no slouch from deep either, but faces competition from younger guys like Jakigh Dottin and Jason Gibson, two guys Skerry has been high on this offseason. Nick Timberlake is a SG worth mentioning who will provide the Tigers some much needed shooting. Limited to just 9 games last year before going down with a foot injury, Timberlake came off the bench and scored 10 points (4-5 FG, 2-3 3-pt) in 24 minutes during last year's contest.

In the frontcourt, Towson will be led by two more seniors, Nakye Sanders and Dennis Tunstall. Sanders (a guy we have faced a ton of times now after he started his career at Duquesne) has the more offensive upside of the two, but both guys possess strong rebounding and shot blocking abilities, two traits that you'd expect of a Tigers team. Solomon Uyaelunmo, a former 3-star prospect out of high school, likely continues to see his minutes capped as a backup playing behind both Sanders and Tunstall, but he too has the potential to be a monster rebounder. Skerry also had glowing remarks for freshman Charles Thompson, which leads me to believe he too will see minutes as a backup in year one.

Solomon's brother, Victor Uyaelunmo, also joined the team this offseason but will sit out a year. The former 4-star prospect is one of three players who decided to return to the east coast after stints out west. While Victor (USC) and Demetrius Mims (Long Beach State) will be sitting out the year, Juwan Gray (San Diego) is eligible this year as a wing that can pull up from deep or beat this man getting to the hoop while having the length and athleticism to be a pest in Skerry's defensive scheme. Gray may be the x-factor on this year's Towson team and someone to watch out for in Tuesday's tilt.

While it does appear the Tigers have the personnel to play faster this year, Skerry has never had a track record of ever playing at a fast pace in his Towson tenure. It will be interesting to see JC's schemes go against Skerry, as GW and Towson could not be more different in identity. Whichever team is able to enforce their style of play will likely come out on top. This is a game where I'd expect to see a lot of minutes for Arnaldo, Javier, Ace, and Chase if he's healthy. While many teams in the CAA saw their best players graduate, Towson is one of the few teams that has a ton of continuity which should work in their favor. This will be a tough test, especially to begin the year. I have a feeling we may come up a bit short, but would love to be wrong.

Predicted Score: Towson 73, GW 68. 29% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN says we have a 41.1% chance to win which sounds about right. The line has Towson 6.5 point favorites which sounds a tad high.

Last edited by dmvpiranha (11/05/2019 12:23 am)

Great to get the season going with what should be a challenging matchup featuring conflicting styles and situations.  Towson is a physical team with two legitimate rim protectors in Tunstall and Sanders.  DMVPiranha's excellent preview points out that Sanders is a familiar face having played two seasons at Duquesne.  He has had a 14 rebound game against GW in the past.  Fobbs of course is their go-to guy and it will be interesting to see how GW chooses to defend him.  Figure Justin M. to draw much of this assignment but I suspect we will be throwing a variety of looks at him.  BM pointed out the rebounding and paint points from last year's game and given the way JC likes to play, it's hard to see GW improving greatly in either of these areas.  Our objective will be to turn them over frequently and with that said, keep an eye on Jakigh Dottin.  He came on strong down the stretch last season and has proven to be more trustworthy with the ball in his hands than Tobias Howard.  Look for Howard to play off of the ball when the two are on the floor together. 

Not only do the styles conflict but so do the situations.  Pat Skerry enters his 9th season at Towson.  He was a  longtime assistant prior to that which included stops at Pitt, Providence and URI.  Top assistant Kevin Clark is a former longtime Mike Jarvis assistant  both at GW and at St. John's where he became the interim head coach when Jarvis resigned.  Towson returns most of their team from a season ago (32nd in the nation in minutes returned).  Last year, they lost 9 games by 6 points or less (including to us, 68-64) plus another two games in overtime.  They are and should be competitive.  By contrast, GW has a brand new coaching staff, many newcomers who are expected to contribute, and completely new offensive and defensive schemes.  A road loss tonight would not be terribly shocking as the team will not only be dealing with some butterflies but are also learning a new system while gaining experience playing with one another.  Towson also came close last year and will be likely using that as motivation.

Remember...the $30.00 will also allow you to view a total of 4 games during the month of November...Towson and the 3 Bahamas game.  
 

If you want to squeeze additional value out of the $30 subscription, you can watch a hand full of EuroLeague games for both Tyler and Pato.  The next games are on Wednesday for both (Tyler is on Alba Berlin and Pato is on the Baskonia (team):

https://www.euroleague.net/main/results

Also, on the last day of the subscription, you can catch the GW Women versus Delaware.

 

From @A10Talk
Here is Kenpom's projected win % for each A-10 team's first game. GW, Saint Joseph's, and Davidson with less than 50% chance of winning the opening game of the season. Everyone else projected to get a win. Expected number of wins for the league equals 9.98.

This is where GW basketball is: playing a season opener at Towson and being a big underdog in said opener. No, this is not as low as things got during the Keuster years (most GW games did not get lines, such was the team´s ability to attract attention). But this is a far cry from the media darling days of Jarvis, Goldwire´s flaying elbows and Pops getting his hops on. While in theory things could be worse, the good news is that there is MUCH more upside potential.

2nd post...

3 turnovers in under 3 minutes

Did they grease the ball before the game?  Sloppy ball handling to start.