I’m genuinely looking forward to this game as a way to test ourselves.  Nothing would surprise me - I think we are athletic and talented enough to compete with Maryland and even pull off the upset, , but inexperienced and flawed enough to get run out of the building if Maryland plays well and we don’t.   

It’s kind of a fascinating matchup. 

It’s two HS teammates going at center.  Qudus Wahab was one year ahead of Noel Brown in HS, so hopefully Brown won’t be awed by him.  Wahab had improved a lot and Patrick Ewing screwed up by letting him get away. He destroyed Quinnipiac yesterday, and I would expect him to destroy us inside… but hopefully Brown’s familiarity with him from playing together means he knows how to slow Wahab down. 

MD has Fatts Russell at PG, who we know well from URI. He’s an excellent offensive player who can really heat up, but he’s not always wowed on defense. James Bishop totally outplayed Fatts in our win over them last year (or at least played him to a draw).  .  Bishop had 28, while Fatts had 14 points and 10 dimes. If I recal, Bishop took advantage of his size mismatch to get good shots over Fatts all game.  If he can play him to a draw tomorrow, that will really help. 

Eric Ayala will be a tough matchup for Bam.  He’s an excellent defender, who is good in transition and shoots a lot of 3s.  Hopefully Joe’s experience going against Va Tech guards helps.

If Ricky Lindo were still at Maryland, he would be a starter there.  I assume Donte Scott guards him because of Scott’s physical presence.  Scott is a unique kind of power sf if that makes sense. Scott was an excellent shooter both inside and outside the arc, and doesn’t tend to force it.  He’s going to be a tough matchup for us.

Hakim Hart is kind of a defense/transition guy, but he’s 6’8” and fast.  His length could be a problem for Adams (unless he’s on Lindo).  He came on late in the year last year, and did most of his damage in transition or when the defense ignored him.  I’m sure the gameplan will be to try to make him beat us from the outside.

So starting 5 vs 5, they have a huge edge at center, and otherwise it’s reasonably close in talent - on paper. 

On the bench, they have Xavier Green from ODU.  He was kind of a glue guy for the monarchs, but he’s not much of an offensive player. Amir Harris may be better, but it’s close and they are different kinds of players. 

Ian Martinez is a Costa Rican dude who was ok as a freshman at Utah last year.  He wasn’t too involved, but seems to be a very nice shooter (inside and out).

Their backup center is a freshman, Julian Reese.  I’ve never seen him but he had 10 and 7 vs Q in his debut so… uh oh. 

Lastly, Pablo Dziuyba got 14 min in the blowout yesterday. I don’t know much but he barely got off the bench at all on Arizona St last year.  I’m guessing he doesn’t get a lot of minutes unless they are smoking us. 

Last year, Maryland took a ton of threes, but they lost Aaron Wiggins and Jarius Hamilton, who were two of their top 3 point shooters, and brought in Wahab, who is not a shooter, and Fatts, who is generally a poor 3 fg shooter (24% last year).  I would expect MD to be a much more inside-oriented team this year.  I would imagine our length can keep them from taking or making many threes, if we want, but we might be very vulnerable inside if we do that.

I suspect we will try to get Fatts and Hart and maybe Ayala to settle for threes, and I’ll be curious if we double Wahab - or if we decide thst Wahab can go for 35 points as long as no one else gets hot.  Interesting coaching decision. 

And obviously we have to score consistently. We will have to find a way to make shots, and I think we will need a big game from Bishop, who probably has the best matchup for us, and from Lindo, who will be playing against his old coach and teammates.

Would like our chances a lot more if this game were to be played months from now.  Both teams have a number of new pieces and are learning to play together.  What seemingly sets the two teams apart right now is Maryland's commitment to defense.  I suspect we could hang around if we're red hot but the likelihood is that Maryland gets too many easy points to make this one close.

BGF wrote:

The Dude wrote:

Maryland has a KenPom of 20.  GW 219.  

We're going to be a massive underdog, on the road no less.

 

Whatever the spread is, I’m going to take GW to cover it. I believe we are better than the outcome we had yesterday.

I like your mind-set BGF. On a side note, ran into Ricky Lindo on campus today.  I had a meeting nearby and he was.... very very tall, hard to miss.  Campus was packed with kids, nice to see that again after such a long absence

Maryland Terrapins

Date/Time: Thursday November 11th @ 6:30 PM ET at XFINITY Center in College Park, MD.
TV: BIG Network
Preseason Ranks: 18th (KenPom), 24th (Bart Torvik), 22nd (CBS), 24th (SI)
2020-21 Record: 17-14, 9-11 (T-8th in Big Ten)
2021-22 Projected Record: 19-11, 11-9 (5th in Big Ten)

Coach: Mark Turgeon, 221-113 in ten seasons at Maryland with six NCAA appearances and an NIT bid in that span. Turgeon has been remarkably consistent most places he has coached, which includes stops at Wichita State (Turgeon is a native Kansan) and Texas A&M. He was especially impressive at the latter school - in four years at College Station Turgeon won 71% of his games qualifying for the NCAAs every year. He began his career at Jacksonville State where he managed to turn things around within a couple seasons. While there has been some criticism regarding his teams in the NCAA tournament (his teams tend to flame out early), there's no denying that Turgeon has had great success in his career - he should approach 500 career victories in the next year.

Head-to-Head: 16-33, although we have come out on top in three of the last four matchups. Mo Creek had the game winner in a 77-75 victory and finished with 25 points (6-11 FG, 3-6 3-PT, 10-12 FT) and 4 rebounds. GW placed four in double figures, including JoeMac flirting with a triple-double (13 points, 8 rebounds, 9 assists, 4 steals), Zeek with a double double (11 points, 12 rebounds, 2 blocks), and Kethan Savage with 14 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, and 4 steals. The team only ended up taking 10 threes and attempted 33 free throws. A similar formula might enable us to remain competitive in this one (although we probably attempt closer to 20 threes). 

Offensive Efficiency: 20th (KenPom), 33rd (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 15th (KenPom), 26th (Bart Torvik)
Pace: 323rd (KenPom), 335th (Bart Torvik) - Maryland has usually been on the slower side in terms of pace under Turgeon, but the last two seasons in particular Turgeon has had them play much more methodically.
Returning Minutes: 45.5% (272nd in country)

Key Returning Players:
Eric Ayala (Junior; Wilmington, DE) 15.1 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.2 SPG; 44% FG, 34% 3-PT, 83% FT
Donta Scott (Sophomore; Philadelphia, PA) 11 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 2 APG; 50% FG, 44% 3-PT, 66% FT
Hakim Hart (Sophomore; Philadelphia, PA) 7.1 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.9 APG; 45% FG, 33% 3-PT, 76% FT

Key Losses:
Aaron Wiggins (Left early to go pro; Greensboro, NC) 14.5 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.1 SPG
Darryl Morsell (Transferred to Marquette; Baltimore, MD) 9 PPG, 4 RPG, 2.8 APG
Jairus Hamilton (Transferred to Western Kentucky; Charlotte, NC) 6.5 PPG, 2.4 RPG

Comments:
The 2019-20 Maryland Terrapins team had the make up of a team with the potential to make a deep run in March. While the Terrapins finished the year losing three of their final five games they managed to win a share of the Big Ten title for the first time under Turgeon. Bracketologists had the Terps penciled in as a top 4 seed, but unfortunately COVID had other plans and derailed a promising season that could have been more than that.

With their top two scorers (Cowan and Smith) departing, Maryland was overlooked in 2020-21. They were picked 10th in the preseason poll and expected to just miss the field come March. However, Turgeon had other plans. While the Terrapins were a bit up and down in conference play (prior to the NCAA tournament they oddly lost three of their last five games again, but had a five game winning streak in February and won on the road against good teams early in conference), they did enough to get in as a 10 seed and even won a game against Brendan's former team, the UConn Huskies. Alabama simply had too much firepower to keep up with on the scoreboard in the next round, but it was a successful season nonetheless and had many revisit their stance on Turgeon as a coach.

2021-22 resembles a bit more of the 2019-20 Maryland team than the 2020-21 version in that expectations are higher for the squad. Obviously, the Terrapins enter as a top 25 team and Turgeon did a good job in the transfer portal to complement some returning production. The key returners all hail from the Philadelphia metropolitan area - Eric Ayala, Donta Scott, and Hakim Hart. Ayala was the team's leading scorer last season and was a sticky defender on the other side of the ball (Maryland did not rack up a ton of steals, but Ayala was the best at doing so). He also pitched in on the boards and served as a complementary playmaker in the halfcourt. Maryland's offense does not run through a single guy, which is reflected in five players averaging nearly 2 assists last season. On a team that lacked size up front, Scott was an asset in rebounding efforts but also showed tremendous growth as a three-level scorer. After a freshman year where he shot 32% from distance, Scott made 44% from the land of plenty in year 2 (the best mark on the team, and key for a team that settled for a lot of jumpers last season). He was weirdly not as good from the line though. Hart played more of a complementary role in 2020-21 but expect him to be more of a factor with Wiggins and Morsell out of the picture.

That's pretty much it in terms of Maryland's returners although Marcus Dockery (former GW target) and James Graham III may see some spot minutes here and there. Dockery did shoot the ball really well when he got the chance.

As mentioned earlier, the transfer additions are what got many excited about Maryland coming into the season. Fatts Russell (Rhode Island) and Qudus Wahab (Georgetown) are the headliners. We all know Fatts at this point - he gets compared to Bishop but honestly Russell has been less efficient than James in his career. The hope is that his efficiency spikes with him not having to be 'the guy' any more. Fatts will assume Maryland's point guard duties at the point of attack. Wahab is perhaps the biggest difference maker on the team this season. It gives Turgeon the option to go down low and diversify the offense a bit. Wahab had a great opening game against Quinnipiac with 17 points and 6 rebounds. Noel was his understudy at Flint Hill, and I'm sure he's looking forward to that matchup. Maryland loses a DPOY in Morsell, but Wahab will be a boost as a rim protector for the team. I don't believe double teaming him is an option because he is a pretty good passer - perhaps we hope he gets in foul trouble? Wahab's presence is the difference in the game for me.

Turgeon was not satisfied with just the two additions, so he plucked two transfers from out west - Ian Martinez (Utah) and Pavlo Dziuba (Arizona State). Martinez adds to the guard depth off the bench as a guy who can score from all over the court and create from off the bounce. Dziuba adds floor spacing as a stretch 4. He was an afterthought as a freshman in Tempe and comes to College Park seeking more playing time. Maryland skews young overall, so Turgeon added a veteran presence in Xavier Green later in the offseason. Green brings a defense first mindset from Old Dominion and will play the utility man role on the team. He is no Morsell, but will try hard.

One final name to keep an eye out for is freshman Julian Reese (another former GW target) who had 11 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 blocks in the season opener. Reese allows Wahab to take a breather but still maintain great rim protection down low and adds additional mobility/athleticism.

Obviously, this is a tough one. A win is certainly not expected but given the spread I think a fair goal is to at least cover. Quinnipiac only fell by 14 to the Terps and they are rated slightly worse than us. Can we keep it around 10 points? Hoping more shots go in tonight because I'd guess we are probably less aggressive on the defensive end than we were against St. Francis. I'm sure Ricky has had this game circled for a while and hopefully is close to 100%.

Predicted Score: Maryland 79, GW 60. 4% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us an 11.6% chance to start 2-0. The Terps enter as a 19 point home favorite.
 

Maybe I missed it, but any word on a possible Lindo injury since he was hobbling at the end of the St Francis game?

I haven't seen Wahab play, but I assume he's probably a physical, overpowering kind of player. SFU's Flagg was a very clever player with great low post mechanics-- he just took his time and got some good shots. We seem to always have trouble with those types. We may be able to better defend the MD big men from scoring, but if we don't box out, they'll kill us on the boards.

Lindor was walking fine when I saw him on campus yesterday

Looked ready to try to shock the world tonight!

MD 85 GW 58. Just being realistic

One key could also be how we handle Maryland's vaunted bigs (and if they live up to the hype) inside. Can JC develop a formula to hide our disadvantage, both injury and self-inflicted?
  On the looking at things positive (at least before the ball is thrown up) side, Mo Creek tweeted "It Is Time To Shock The World Today" against Maryland. Couldn't ask for better inspiration.