Uh...... I'm aware, I asked "Does GW avoid the upset and improve to 4-1"   

(as in win the game.... because we're favored....and winning the game would avoid an upset of the favored team)   Clearer?

I do think this is an upset risk game, they did beat Cal, we're not going to have much of  home crowd Tuesday,  and didn't we get absolutely waxed with a similar, (and better) roster last year in their building?






 

UC San Diego Tritons

Date/Time: Tuesday November 22nd @ 7:00 PM ET at The Charles E. Smith Center in Washington, DC.
TV: ESPN+
Preseason Ranks: 263rd (KenPom), 229th (Bart Torvik), 270th (Sports Illustrated)
2021-22 Record: 13-16, 7-11 (8th in Big West)
2022-23 Projected Record: 11-21, 8-12 (T-8th in Big West)

Head-to-Head: 0-1, with last season's matchup (a 20 point road loss) being the first ever meeting against the Tritons since they went D1 two seasons ago, becoming the third team in San Diego to have a D1 team. It's likely inevitable that some people will always confuse them with USD, where former assistant coach Ryan Devlin is now on staff. Last year's matchup was certainly one to forget - per Bart Torvik, the UC San Diego game was our worst "game score" of the season. On a scale from 0 (bad) to 100 (perfect) we were given a score of 2 for that game. I'm not sure much more needs to be said beyond that, but shooting a season worst 16% from 3 will do that. Couple that with the worst offensive rebounding rate of the season when no shots were falling and you also get the worst offensive points per possession of the season as well (73.6, which almost feels hard to do).

JB and Brendan will certainly need to shoot better than a combined 1-11 from three. Ricky (13 points, 11 rebounds, 2 blocks - but unfortunately also turned it over 5 times), Joe (12 points, 3 steals), and Brendan (12 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists) all finished in double figures for the game. JB had just six games all of last year where he failed to reach 10 points, and the UCSD game was one of them - it marked his lowest output since coming to GW with just 5 points.

Name a category, and chances are UC San Diego did significantly better than us in it in the game. The Tritons made two more field goals despite eight fewer attempts than us. They made 8 more threes. They got to the line twice as much as we did. They outrebounded us 42-26 (and mind you, this is not a prolific rebounding team by any means). UCSD had 18 assists, while we only had 7. The two categories we fared better were steals and blocks, but that's partly because UCSD isn't overly aggressive on that end. It goes without saying that we will need to match them or be a lot better in all the categories above tomorrow.

This likely won't be the last time I mention just how stupid our schedule was last year, but the UCSD game was certainly an example. We traveled all the way to California just two days after playing our hearts out against UMD and coming up short. Oh, and we lost Hunter to injury for a few games. It also didn't help that we scheduled these games so Ira's family could watch him play only for him to never suit up for the Buff and Blue. Lee is now playing overseas in France. It was a nice gesture, but ended up blowing up in GW's face from a scheduling standpoint. Granted, given how bad things have been OOC the last several years, playing a buy game at home might not have guaranteed a win either.

Preseason Offensive Efficiency: 202nd (KenPom), 155th (Bart Torvik)
Preseason Defensive Efficiency: 317th (KenPom), 296th (Bart Torvik)
Pace: 118th (KenPom), 136th (Bart Torvik)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 270th
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 302nd
Rim & 3 Rate: 93% (15th)

Strengths:

Team Stats
3-PT Field Goals Made Per Game (31st)
3-PT Field Goal Percentage (32nd)
Personal Fouls Per Game (40th)
3-PT Field Goal Attempts Per Game (73rd)
Free Throw Percentage (74th)

Opponent Stats
Free Throw Attempts (10th)
Free Throws Made Per Game (12th)
3-PT Field Goals Made Per Game (55th)
Blocks Per Game (59th)
3-PT Field Goal Attempts Per Game (67th)
3-PT Field Goal Percentage (88th)

Differential
3-PT Field Goals Made (15th)
Free Throws Made (23rd)
Free Throws Attempted (28th)
3-PT Field Goal Percentage (32nd)
3-PT Field Goals Attempted (36th)
Free Throw Percentage (80th)

Weaknesses:

Team Stats
Steals Per Game (261st)
Field Goals Made Per Game (286th)
Field Goal Attempts Per Game (336th)
Blocks Per Game (345th)
Rebounds Per Game (346th)
Offensive Rebounds Per Game (T-356th)

Opponent Stats
Defensive Rebounds Per Game (265th)
Field Goals Attempted (268th)
Field Goals Made (322nd)
Field Goal Percentage (324th)

Differential
Defensive Rebounds Per Game (262nd)
Field Goal Percentage (276th)
Blocks Per Game (278th)
Personal Fouls Per Game (322nd)
Rebounds Per Game (333rd)
Field Goals Made (338th)
Field Goals Attempted (348th)
Offensive Rebounds Per Game (348th)

Key Returning Players:
Bryce Pope (RS Junior; San Diego, CA) 12.3 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.3 apg; 41% FG, 33% 3-PT, 83% FT
      Last Season vs. GW: 5 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists; 2-9 FG, 1-3 3-PT in 27 minutes.

Francis Nwaokorie (Sophomore; Brooklyn Park, MN) 11.8 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.4 apg; 54% FG, 41% 3-PT, 77% FT
      Last Season vs. GW: 19 points, 5 rebounds; 6-9 FG, 3-4 3-PT, 4-6 FT in 29 minutes.

Jake Kosakowski (RS Junior; Las Vegas, NV) 8.7 ppg, 1.5 rpg; 49% FG, 47% 3-PT, 84% FT
      Last Season vs. GW: 12 points, 3 rebounds; 4-8 FG, 4-8 3-PT in 14 minutes.

Jace Roquemore (RS Junior; Henderson, NV) 6.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 3.2 apg, 1 spg; 39% FG, 27% 3-PT, 80% FT
      Last Season vs. GW: 11 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists; 3-5 FG, 0-1 3-PT, 5-6 FT in 36 minutes.

Key Losses:
Toni Ročak (Transferred to San Francisco; Geneva, Switzerland) 15.2 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 2 apg, 1.1 spg; 47% FG, 25% 3-PT, 67% FT
Jake Killingsworth (Graduated; San Carlos, CA) 7.2 ppg, 4 rpg, 2.1 apg; 46% FG, 42% 3-PT, 82% FT

Comments:
Can we talk about just how stupid the NCAA's four year transition period is for new teams joining D1? At the very least, reduce the number of years required to sit out due to the transition - four years certainly seems excessive. I feel for the players that sign on to these new teams knowing that their season will end without making the dance no matter how well they perform. Look no further than Bellarmine last year, who won the Atlantic Sun conference championship only to watch Jacksonville State's name get called on Selection Sunday (on top of that, the Jacksonville Dolphins had defeated JSU in the semifinals, yet the regular season winner Gamecocks advanced to the NCAA tournament, so basically two games played in that tournament ended up being a complete waste of time and both Bellarmine and Jacksonville got robbed of a bid when JSU should have been NIT bound instead).

UC San Diego has been one of those teams on the ineligibility list among an ever-growing list of schools joining D1 who will have to play two more seasons before they are qualified to compete in the NCAA tournament. On top of that, the Big West conference has been stupid in not allowing UCSD to be included in the conference standings during this time. According to this article, there are fears that the Big West would not have representation in the NIT should UCSD win the conference. I just don't buy that, because it should really be little difference from how the NCAA tournament is decided in those cases. If the second place team did not make the tournament, put them in the NIT. Not sure why that's so hard. At least I believe the stats from the first four years will count.

Anyways, credit head coach Eric Olen for keeping his squad focused despite all these unnecessary distractions around them. Olen has now been at UCSD for nearly a decade as he enters his tenth year there. Things have been shaky so far in the past couple years as the Tritons transition to D1, but Olen's 167-63 record in the D2 ranks speak to his strong coaching abilities, and the Tritons made four consecutive tournaments in that seven year span, including three first place finishes in the CCAA in three of their final four years in D2. He is an Alabama native (quite a bit different from San Diego!) who played collegiately at Spring Hill, where the Badgers made three straight NAIA tournament appearances including an Elite Eight finish.

Like basically every modern college basketball coach these days, Olen has embraced the age of analytics in college basketball, which plays a big role in how the team plays on both sides of the ball. If you told the average person that UC San Diego for the season not only shot and made more threes and free throws than their opposition, but also a better percentage than them most would certainly figure that the Tritons were a relatively successful team. Offensively, UCSD is certainly a jumper happy team - they finished top 40 nationally in both three point makes and percentage. Defensively, they try to run opponents off the three point line and once teams are driving to the hoop they hold their own by not fouling and keeping teams off the FT line. Unfortunately, the Tritons were often caught out of position when trying to rebound the ball, and due to Olen prioritizing skill on offense UCSD was not a team that had virtually any rim protection or guys that can block/alter shots near the rim (in that sense, they were similar to our team last year). The Tritons were bottom 15 nationally in both these categories. They also elect to get back on defense to prevent transition opportunities and finished as the second worst offensive rebounding team in the country. That is something that can certainly work in our favor if we can get a stop the first time around on defense.

The Tritons bring back four of their top six scorers from last year as they look to finish .500 for the first time in their young D1 history. Bryce Pope and Jace Roquemore both provide positional size at their positions at shooting guard and point guard respectively. Pope is a versatile three-level scorer who shot a respectable 33% from deep and is the returning leader in free throw makes, where he made shots at an 83% clip (good for 88th in the country). Roquemore did a good job orchestrating the offense with a 1.68 assist to turnover ratio. A combined four assists per game are now up for grabs with Ročak and Killingsworth out of the fold, so Roquemore may have more responsibility ensuring his snipers along the perimeter are getting their shots. He is arguably the best on-ball defender on the squad returning, although that may not be saying much. Roquemore will look to improve his efficiencies as a shooter this season, as he shot below 40% from the field and just 27% from three, something that is not very characteristic of a UCSD basketball player. Otherwise, teams will dare him to make a basket for the Tritons while they take away the best shooters on the floor.

Two of the forward positions will be occupied by Francis Nwaokorie and Jake Kosakowski. Nwaokorie, a Minnesota native, had an incredible freshman season last year where he was second in rebounding, led the team in field goal percentage at 54%, and made 41% of his threes on the year. I don't what it is about Minnesota, but it feels like everyone who comes from there can really shoot the ball. Kosakowski meanwhile hails from Sin City, and it would quite literally be a sin to leave him open from distance tomorrow as the dedicated shooter on the squad. He made 70 threes on the year at a 47% clip, which was 97th best nationally. He doesn't really do much else on the floor but someone has to know where he is at all times tomorrow otherwise it will be a long night.

Losing bothToni Ročak and Jake Killingsworth really hurts UCSD. I thought Ročak (a Big West honorable mention selection last year) in particular was one of the more unheralded players in the country last year. Per hoop-explorer, when both were on the floor, the Tritons scored 102.6 points per 100 possessions offensively. That number dropped to a below average 99.1 pp/100p when they sat. Even more glaring is the defense - the Tritons were already surrendering 103.1 points per 100 possessions when both were playing, but without the height of Ročak, UCSD became a sieve defensively, allowing a disastrous 110 pp/100p with them off the floor.

Three other role players in Vuk Vulikic, Michael Pearson Jr., and Justin DeGraaf are also back for UCSD this year. Vulikic, a Serbian native who transferred to UCSD last year from UTEP adds size and showed signs of being a potential backup PG option behind Roquemore at times last season. Like Roquemore though he will need to shoot the ball significantly better to earn more playing time. Pearson (who has yet to play this season) provides a different look - at just 5-9 he is a speed demon who can get to the rim and made a good 38% of his attempts form three. He may slot in off the ball for stretches if he can improve finishing over bigger guys inside. DeGraaf may end up being the most important of the three with Ročak out of the fold. UCSD will hope that he can add rebounding and provide the occasional bucket inside.

UCSD welcomes five new pieces to the team this season. The most impactful will come from the frontcourt, as the Tritons added size in a major way with the additions of former Washington/USC forward J'Raan Brooks and 7 foot tall UC Irvine transfer Emmanuel Tshimanga. Brooks actually joined the squad prior to last season but had to sit out after suffering a season-ending injury in an exhibition game last year. He didn't play much at either of his previous Pac-12 schools, but figures to make an impact rebounding and providing interior scoring. Tshimanga, a Canadian, is the more captivating piece to me, the brother of former Dayton Flyer Jordy Tshimanga. While it remains to be seen how many minutes he can play on the court (he did not play in their last game against Youngstown State), the rim protection potential of Tshimanga is enormous - something that UCSD has never had in their history really. He is a threat to score inside and rebound as well.

In the backcourt, UCSD adds true freshmen Robbie Anderson III, walk-on Camden McCormick, and Quin Patterson. Anderson may have the best opportunity to minutes - whether backing up Roquemore or even cracking the starting lineup right away. He will likely make freshman mistakes with his decision making, but his passing and on-ball defense merit playing time right away albeit he's still a work in progress as a shooter at the collegiate level. Patterson is listed as a guard, but offers positional versatility defensively being able to guard multiple positions. McCormick will add depth at guard.

The two keys in this one will be how we fare against UCSD's shooters and whether we can guard Brooks without fouling. Despite the putrid performance offensively last year, I'm less worried about that end - improved passing and almost certainly better shot making will be fine for us. UCSD is by no means like Hofstra when it comes to shooting the ball - in fact they have struggled just shooting 28% on the year so far, but we will need to close out on shooters well now that we no longer run players off the three point line under CC. Brooks will likely get his points tomorrow night as we focus on their guards, but Hunter and Ricky will need to stay on the floor and play without fouling. If that means we sometimes surrender the easy basket, so be it. This is a game I want to see us win - UCSD was picked second to last in the Big West, although after WBB's performance against CSUF yesterday it seems like we have trouble with that conference. Less worried about the scoring margin.

Projected Score: GW 77, UC San Diego 67. 81% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us an even more optimistic 83.8% chance at getting revenge on the Tritons after last season's disappointment.
 

Add in horrendous coaching to the travel excuse,

Turnovers will absolutely kill GW in conference play

gwfan25 wrote:

Turnovers will absolutely kill GW in conference play

100%. Ball movement seems slow too.

Already 5 turnovers. Not good.

Gross

We still have only one player that can consistently score. Pretty easy to defend against that.

Did the game start yet?  With all of the open looks we were giving them it seemed like they were in the pre-game lay up line.

And our rebounding is atrocious- not putting a body on them and letting them jump right over us.

Would love to see some intensity