Unmet expectations are a source of disappointment.  Unmet unrealistic expectations are a cause of depression.

There's a part of me that says this OOC discussion is a lot like discussing the arrangement of deck chairs on the Titanic given NIL, conference realignment, and the overwhelming influence of TV money.  Although football is the big money driver for conference changes, all of this TV cash has to have major reverberations for MBB beyond 2023 and I don't think any of us have a real sense as to what this will look like for mid-majors.  This touches both scheduling opportunities and the ability to compete for talent.  I think most of us here are sincere and thoughtful in our posts, but way over our heads in in terms of truly understanding the real-world conditions and headwinds GW confronts today and in the future. 

With this backdrop, I think CC is doing the right thing as a GW coach today in making his first priority to assemble the best roster possible based on the current league we are in, try to achieve the best performance he can out of that team, and while keeping an eye on the future, letting the schedule and the future handle itself and adapting as best he can.      

As a fan, I'm just going to root for us to win and play good basketball.  Yeah, it would be nice to beat Virginia at home, but for now, I'll take a well-played winning game by a disciplined team as a decent consolation prize. 

     

Last edited by Merrick (8/10/2023 7:29 pm)

https://twitter.com/GW_MBB/status/1699482864230777062

Home: Fordham, Davidson, George Mason, LaSalle, URI, Loyola, Richmond, UMass, St. Bonaventure
Away: VCU, UMass, Richmond, Dayton, George Mason, SJU, SLU, LaSalle, Duquesne

Only four nationally televised games (@VCU, GMU, @Richmond, Richmond)

Last edited by MG14 (9/06/2023 1:24 pm)

And one of the four "nationally televised games" is a Digital only production on the NBC Sports app or nbcsports.com (but not on Peacock?)  So that one is much like the ESPN+ games.

As long as we can see it............
 

Now that the KenPom rankings are out, and I will admit that placing GW at #217, the worst ranking in the A10, makes me even less trustworthy of KenPom preseason rankings than ever before, let's look at the OOC schedule:

Stonehill                      H         #346
Wm. & Mary                H         #313
Hofstra                        H         #113
New Hampshire            H         #300
Ohio                            N         #114
Middle Tenn or UIC       N          #151 or #243
TBD                            N
South Carolina             A          #66
Navy                           H          #293
Coppin State                H         #357
Bowie State                 H         Division 2
Alcorn State                H          #248
UMES                         H          #348

Observations:

1) I realize I say this practically every year, but this appears to be the worst OOC schedule in GW's history, and will likely be regarded as one of say the 20 easiest OOC schedules in the sport this season.

2) Given the losses that GW has endured in the OOC over the past 7 years, I will not harp on this schedule any further.

3) What has absolutely crushed our year-long computer metrics in recent years have been some of these God-awful, inexcusable losses.  With this schedule, that simply has to be avoided.

4) We can talk all day long about integrating so many new players but the reality is that nowadays, most programs find themselves in similar boats.  Our overall lack of real-game experience is a more viable issue.  However, if the talent discrepancy between two teams is great enough, this too should not be an issue during many of these games.

5) In a worst case scenario, we have tough matchups against Hofstra, Ohio, Middle Tennessee, potentially a 3rd matchup in the holiday tournament, and South Carolina.  No more losses to William & Mary or Navy.  Simply can't happen. 

6) This is likely me trying to read the tea leaves, but after listening to CC at Media Day, I sense he has a genuine quiet confidence about this team.  He knows he has talent and he knows he has depth.  He is going from coaching a team where the hope was to play only 5 guys, realizing he had to play 7, and moving to an 8th when absolutely necessary, to a team where he can afford to play a longer bench, ride someone with a hot hand one game and then a different guy the next, have most players be able to guard multiple positions, and exploit matchups from a position of strength.
 

We are currently rated 294 in the Torvik. Absolutely nuts.  

The 10 widest standard deviations among the "Big Four" of analytics sites from https://twitter.com/JonFendler/status/1715359013058097442

Guess which site is on the lower end for the majority of the teams?


 

For a program that has lost games over the past three seasons to American, Navy, William & Mary, Radford, UC San Diego, Hampton, and UMBC among others, it stands to reason that practically no opponent should be overlooked or taken for granted.  While even the country's best teams might have an off night every now and then, GW has simply had too many of them.  These stunning losses were a staple of the Jamion Christian era who managed to have his team improve during conference season.  Chris Caputo's first GW team slightly improved in this area but nevertheless, was subject to a few head-scratching losses.  For GW to escape "computer rankings hell" where I believe they still are, they are for starters going to have to put away teams who they should be clearly superior to.

Without a single Top 50 school on it's non-conference schedule, GW has an opportunity to run the table.  It would still be quite a long shot to pull this off.  What's likely more realistic is to stay close with the better programs on the schedule, and win convincingly against the bottom 25% of the sport's programs that GW will be facing. Here is how I am grouping teams on our schedule:

Win and win big:  Navy, UNH, W&M, Stonehill, Bowie State, UMES and Coppin State...These are all among the more lowly regarded programs at least as it pertains to on-court performance.  (No, I would never refer to the Naval Academy as a whole as lowly regarded.)  And still, GW has lost to four of these programs this century.  No more.  Can not be tripping up against any of these schools.  Each game will be at the Smith Center.  (Let's also add UMKC, who we could play on Day 3 in the Bahamas, to this group.)

One True Road Game, and a Revenge Game at that:  South Carolina.  This has the feel of the 26-1 team (not that GW is going 26-1) where the one loss was a blowout at NC State.  The Wolfpack was determined to hand GW a loss, and SC coming off an all-out thrashing just last season may be in a similar mood.  GG Jackson has departed, having landed in Memphis on a two-way contract, but quite honestly, one of the most hyped freshman to ever suit up against GW was anything but a factor that evening.  There's little doubt that the Gamecocks have this game circled.

A Revenge Game For GW...JBIV has returned for the shootout, Part 2, with Hofstra.  However, Aaron Estrada has not, having taken his talents to Tuscaloosa.  This admittedly takes away some luster from the matchup but GW can't afford to come out overconfident as a result.  The last time Hofstra paid a visit, they lost an NIT game in heartbreaking fashion courtesy of an Alex Mitola floater.  So if they have long memories, they too can claim this as a revenge game as well.

Holiday Tournament:  No trips to Hawaii or the west coast this season, just a three day jaunt to the Bahamas (plus just one other road trip to Columbia, SC.)  Arguably two of the four best teams in the field meet in the quarters when GW faces Ohio.The Bobcats are normally physical and well coached.  Two incoming transfers are Ike Cornish (from Maryland) and Shereef Mitchell (from Creighton),  Next up will be either Middle Tennessee (which would mean another matchup against a top 4 squad from this field) or UIC.  Have to consider UNC-Greensboro to be an easy favorite to play in the final on the other half of the draw.  Any other Sunday matchup (Brown, Delaware, or UMKC) should result in GW being a clear favorite.

The Sneaky Game:  Am putting Alcorn State in a category unto itself.  The Braves have made two consecutive trips to the NIT, so they have a winning culture.  Plus, in case you thought they might be a bit intimidated to play at the Smitty, Alcorn State will have already played road games at Arkansas, UAB, Michigan State, TCU, Clemson, VCU, Maryland, Northern Iowa and Drake before they get to us.  A battle-tested team against one that may very well not be makes me nervous.


 

Pretty much agree with everything you said.

We are certainly more talented than the bottom 25% of teams you listed above (maybe even 50%), but I can't look past the overall inexperience of this team despite the talent. The lack of experience will inevitably lead to closer games/losses than shouldn't happen during OOC play. I would be happy with just winning them regardless of margin. I'm sure some will still be won by a lot (like UNH last year). Hopefully a year from now things will go exactly like how you outlined even when JB is out of the picture (and hopefully we play a slightly tougher schedule overall).

I think South Carolina has more than enough reasons to be motivated against us, but having the game circled is a bit strong. At the end of the day, it's a power conference team that sees GW as a lesser foe. It's also worth noting that they are facing us between tilts against Notre Dame and a big rival in Clemson so they may still not be 100% into the game.

Considering the players/coaches are different from that NIT game from 6+ years ago, I doubt Hofstra sees it as a revenge game. Going back to the inexperience point, Hofstra will still be starting all upperclassmen so the game will still be tough even without Estrada.

I don't know that Brown or Delaware would result in GW being a clear favorite. The Bears have Kino Lily, who can win games when he gets going like JB does for us and they play great defense. Delaware lost JNJ, but they are also starting all upperclassmen, including three former power conference players (Lane, Drumgoole, Davis).

I mentioned in previous posts about being Alcorn State being feisty so I agree with your assessment. Similar to when we've faced Coppin State the past couple of years though, they will be playing their third game in five days when they face us and fatigue could be a bigger factor than it otherwise would. We will have last played in nine days against a D2 team where hopefully none of the starters logged major minutes.