(I gotchu PKGW!)

New Hampshire Wildcats

Date: Saturday November 18th, 2023
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Charles E. Smith Center (Washington, DC)
TV: ESPN+
Analytic Ranks: 256th (KenPom), 257th (EvanMiya), 260th (Haslametrics)
2022-23 Record: 15-15, 9-7 (3rd in America East)
2023-24 Projected Record: 14-15, 8-8 (T-3rd in America East)

Head-to-Head: 2-0, and both meetings have taken place since the 2017 season (which is a bit surprising, given the school has been D1 for a while). While last year's tilt was a bit of a runaway for the Buff & Blue, they played us close in the first meeting. In that contest, the Wildcats (talk about a generic moniker...) built a four point lead going into halftime before the second half was a bit more of a back-and-forth affair. It certainly helped that Yuta made four threes in the second half alone. He finished with a double-double (18 points, 11 rebounds) but Patrick Steeves actually paced the team in scoring with 23 points to go with 7 rebounds and 5 assists. GW's advantage at the line (they shot 16 more FTs compared to UNH) helped offset the ten threes made NH. The other thing that really stood out was the assist to turnover ratio, as GW had 16 assists as opposed to just nine turnovers in that game. That's something that I hope to see replicated tomorrow. The Revs haven't been awful in that category, but there's certainly room for improvement when it comes to moving the ball and cutting down on unforced errors (especially from JB).

Offensive Efficiency: 280th (KenPom), 297th (EvanMiya), 288th (Haslametrics)
Defensive Efficiency: 216th (KenPom), 208th (EvanMiya), 247th (Haslametrics)
Pace: 68th (KenPom), 201st (EvanMiya), 298th (Haslametrics)
Roster Rank: 287th (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 154th
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 225th
Rim & 3 Rate: 87% (78th)

Strengths:
Opponent Assists Per Game - 10 APG (13th)
Opponent 3-PT Field Goals Made Per Game - 5.9 3PM (29th)
Personal Fouls Per Game - 15.1 PF/G (41st)
Opponent 3-PT Field Goal Percentage - 31.1% (42nd)
Opponent Steals Per Game - 5.5 SPG (52nd)
Opponent 3-PT Field Goals Attempted Per Game - 18.9 3PA (58th)
3-PT Field Goals Attempted Per Game - 24.2 3PA (70th)
3-PT Field Goals Made Per Game - 8.3 3PM (79th)
Opponent Points Per Game - 67 PPG (85th)
Opponent Free Throw Percentage - 69.9% (88th)
Opponent Blocks Per Game - 2.8 BPG (89th)
Opponent Offensive Rebounds Per Game - 9.1 ORPG (T-104th)
Opponent Free Throws Made Per Game - 11.8 FTM (116th)

Weaknesses:
Free Throws Made Per Game - 11.7 FTM (270th)
Blocks Per Game - 2.5 BPG (277th)
Free Throw Percentage - 69.3% (278th)
Opponent Personal Fouls Per Game - 16 PF/G (279th)
Assists Per Game - 11.7 APG (300th)
Steals Per Game - 5.4 SPG (T-301st)
Opponent Turnovers Per Game - 11 TO/G (312th)
Points Per Game - 66.4 PPG (315th)
Opponent Rebounds Per Game - 36.6 RPG (317th)
Field Goals Made Per Game - 23.2 FGM (336th)
Field Goal Percentage - 39.8% (353rd)
Opponent Defensive Rebounds Per Game - 27.6 DRPG (354th)

Key Returning Players:
Clarence O. Daniels II (Senior; Brooklyn Park, MN) - 15.3 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.3 spg; 44% FG, 40% 3-PT, 76% FT per 34.3 mpg
      Last Season vs. GW: 11 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal; 4-14 FG, 1-4 3-PT, 2-3 FT in 35 minutes.

Jaxson Baker (Graduate Student; Phoenix, AZ) - 5.8 ppg, 1.8 rpg; 38% FG, 36% 3-PT, 87% FT per 15.7 mpg
      Last Season vs. GW: 3 rebounds; 0-2 FG, 0-1 3-PT in 11 minutes.

Christian Moore (Sophomore; Virginia Beach, VA) - 5 ppg, 1.1 rpg, 1 apg; 35% FG, 32% 3-PT, 70% FT per 12.5 mpg
      Last Season vs. GW: 5 points, 2 rebounds; 2-5 FG, 0-2 3-PT, 1-2 FT in 13 minutes.

Key Losses:
Nick Johnson (Transferred to Winthrop; Bronx, NY) - 12.8 ppg, 5 rpg, 1 apg, 1.4 spg; 37% FG, 37% 3-PT, 61% FT per 33.4 mpg
Kyree Brown (Went Pro; Oakland, CA) - 10.9 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 4 apg; 38% FG, 31% 3-PT, 80% FT per 30.6 mpg
Matt Herasme (Graduated; Chester, NY) - 10.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.8 apg; 40% FG, 34% 3-PT, 70% FT per 32.9 mpg
Nazim Derry (Transferred to D2 Goldey-Beacom; Atlantic City, NJ) - 5.1 ppg, 1.5 rpg; 36% FG, 29% 3-PT, 53% FT per 16.1 mpg

Key Transfers:
Naim Miller (Transfer from D2 Edinboro; Pittsburgh, PA) - 16.5 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.6 apg; 35% FG, 35% 3-PT, 78% FT per 37.6 mpg

Preview:
At what point is it time to move on from a coach? At the high major level, the answer is a bit clearer - even at the "less desirable" schools, the expectation is to qualify for the big dance every handful of years. At the levels below though, the answer is debateable. There are cases where the bottom absolutely falls out and a chnage is needed for a program to reset. The answer becomes tougher when the coach has been around for a while and has shown to compete when fielding an older, more experienced team.

Look no further than the A10. St. Joe's and Richmond represent the two sides of the debate. The Hawks opted to move on from Phil Martelli in 2019 just a year removed from a 4th place finish in the league. It's easy to forget that SJU was battling the injury bug consistently at the tail end of the 24-year Martelli era. An argument could be made that Joe's had a bit of a capped ceiling at that point but at the same time the floor was very high. We'll see how Lange fares this year, but man I don't know that the coaching change has paid off (even though Lange inherited a relatively gutted roster). On a side note, it's interesting that both Martelli and his son are currently serving as head coaches, with Sr. the interim at Michigan as Howard is going through heart surgery and Jr. recently earning the full-time gig at Bryant with all of Grasso's shenanigans (that feels like a topic for another day). It's still early in the season, but Phil Sr. has shown that he's still got the coaching chops to succeed in 2023 (well at least before today).

Richmond on the other hand has hung onto Chris Mooney, who is currently in his 19th season at Richmond. We all remember the buzz that the "Fire Mooney" billboard received in 2019 (coincidentally just a month before the coaching changes at St. Joe's) but a couple of postseason trips in the past four years (which included the tourney win over Iowa) has definitely quieted critics (at least a little bit). While Richmond fans may continue to watch a lowish ceiling team, it's a guarantee that Mooney won't stay in the basement in the league long. He's 100% proven that in his near two decade run there.

Anyways, this was no doubt a topic of discussion within the athletic department at New Hampshire this offseason. UNH opted to can Bill Herrion, a former GW assistant who spent 18 years at the helm. Quite honestly, the firing was a bit of a surprise to me as Herrion led UNH to its fourth consecutive top 4 finish in the America East. It's easy to say "oh look, this team is just one of 34 that has never qualified for the NCAA tournament in its history" and that Herrion wasn't likely to get there with powerhouse Vermont around, but unlike the St. Joe's/Richmonds of the world, an additional layer that has to be considered is how desirable the job is, relative to the league or otherwise. UNH is not a job that is considered particularly coveted, and quite honestly, Herrion exceeded expectations at a program that has cared more about hockey than other sports. The school never hit the 20 win mark in a season before Herrion arrived (he had two such seasons), and UNH finished .500 or better overall in the past four years. Outside of Maine which is a borderline impossible job, I would put pretty much every other school in the league over UNH in terms of desirability. The coaching carousel pretty much confirmed how people perceived the job. There were reports that JC was reached out to and that he turned down job, as did several other coaches.

New Hampshire eventually settled on Nathan Davis, a DC native who was also a long-tenured coach at his previous stop before being let go this offseason. It's unclear what went wrong the last four years in his time at Bucknell, because up until 2019 (that year pops up yet again!) he was upholding the Bucknell standard and was being brought up in talks for better jobs. Unlike UNH, there's plenty of success at Bucknell - the Bison have notched nine 20+ win seasons in the past 19 years, including six trips to the dance so a change wasn't as surprising. The Patriot league has pretty much been the Colgate show of late (how has Langel not moved on?) The only thing that I can really point to that has changed over the past few years is the transfer portal becoming more of a factor. Like pretty much all schools in the Patriot, Bucknell is not really a factor there due to strict academic standards. Improvement generally comes from returning players and having them continue to develop.

Will a move to the America East allow/prompt Davis to change his recruiting approach? In the short term, it appears the answer is no with regards to the portal but it's only year 1. The Wildcats still return seven guys from last year, including a few reliable contributors. Any discussion with the flagship school from The Granite State has to begin with Clarence O. Daniels II, who Davis managed to incredibly retain after he entered the transfer portal earlier in the offseason. Sometimes the best gets are the players you already have in the current climate of CBB. A first-team all America East selection, Daniels was one of just 15 players in the country to average a double-double last season, and was eighth nationally in rebounding. He was easily the best two-way player on the team, and wasn't bound to the paint either as he shot nearly 40% from distance. If/when UNH decides to play him as a small-ball 5, that could be another test for Stretch but I'm sure CC will be ready. He will only be better in his second year of D1 ball after coming over from D2 Montana State-Billings. (Side note: it's interesting that the main school in the Montana State system is in Bozeman, which is smaller than Billings by population. The main MSU has had a lot of success in the Big Sky the past couple of years, making the NCAA tournament in the last two and they even knocked off Cal last night under a new head coach.)

Davis has a clear #1 entering the year, but the next go-to options are a bit more unclear. Jaxson Baker and Christian Moore served more as rotation players last year than as outright starters.

Baker, who arrived in Durham from Central Arkansas, is a stretch forward who is very comfortable with knocking down shots from deep range (36% last year). A staggering 73% of his attempts came from distance last year. He didn't really do anything else otherwise that warranted more minutes and will be counted on to contribute more on the glass this year (averaged under 2 a game last season - not good given his height).

Moore feels like the guy with true breakout potential entering his second year of CBB. He definitely has a lot of things he could do better - from improving his efficiency as a shooter on a potentially larger workload to contributing more as a passer - but his potential showed through in a couple of contests during conference play last season, including a 17 point effort against Vermont and 10 against Bryant in the conference tournament.

Three other players - junior Trey Woodyard and a pair of sophomores in Rex Sunderland and Ridvan Tutić will fight for bigger roles this year. Woodyard is a multi-positional wing from the midwest with potential on both sides of the ball, but has struggled to find any consistency offensively thus far. Sunderland, who comes all the way from Utah, is particularly intriguing as he shot the ball well in limited time but needed a year to get acclimated to the college game. At the very least, he has great positional size which could translate defensively. Tutić is the tallest player on the roster at 6-10 which will earn him some minutes by default. The Serbia native showed promise scoring along the interior and gobbling up any rebounds that came his way. He has yet to play on the year though which could lead to major issues in the interior. It's no surprise that Davis has already signed two bigs for next year as it's going to be a major need for UNH moving forward.

Speaking of promise, the final returner, Promise Opurum, will see his first action of collegiate basketball after redshirting last year. While lightly recruited out of HS, Opurum hails from the well-regarded Woodstock Academy program (aka the UMass feeder school a few years ago) so he's definitely gone up against good players in practice. He's more of a slasher that operates exclusively in the paint at this point of his career.

Six newcomers figure to see extended time this year as Davis begins to build his identity within the program. The lone player from the portal, Naim Miller, comes from the D2 ranks but began his career at Mount St. Mary's. Miller played on an awful team that won just seven games and posted a subpar assist-turnover ratio, but he did bury 62 triples at a 35% clip and led the team in scoring at just under 17 points a game. He feels like a "good stats, bad team" guy outside of the three point shooting, but at the very least his confidence to shoot the ball may help take some pressure off Daniels inside.

Davis was notably very active in the JUCO ranks, something that he was not able to do as much while at Bucknell. Ahmad Robinson and Marial "Paul" Gakmar are the most experienced players that are making the jump to the D1 level. Like Miller, Robinson did not play on a particularly good team last year but led the team in scoring, averaging 17 a game. Unlike Miller, he did show the ability to direct the offense, averaging over five assists a game while also generating over two steals at that level. I wouldn't be surprised to see him start from day 1 - UNH lost a lot in the backcourt. Gakmar is an Australia native who played on a better JUCO in Florida but put up more modest stats on decent efficiency. He likely ends up more as a rotation guy than outright starter given the other guys UNH has up front. Dior Davis is a year younger but played on easily the best JUCO of the newcomers (Ellsworth Community College in Iowa went 22-10 last year). While he did not lead the team in scoring, he put up solid stats across the board for a freshman. A fourth player from the junior college ranks - Alex Tavares - is actually a local guy for them, as he played at a school just 12 miles from campus and put up decent shooting stats. Given he's walking on though I'm guessing he doesn't play as big of a role though.

The final newcomer is a true freshman in Davide Poser who arrives from Italy. Poser has a good looking shot but likely needs to hit the weight room a bit before he can play big minutes.

Like W&M, UNH does look improved this year so we can't look past them despite last year's result. Daniels has legitimate talent, and there's enough shooting/scoring to make UNH competent offensively. The Wildcats are off to a great year shooting the ball, averaging 12 threes over three games. It's important to note that half of those makes came against a non-D1 team, but they still managed to put up 72 against Syracuse which is an improvement over the 66 ppg from last year and they did beat BC last season. As you can see above, they were very disciplined defensively and did a number of things well without having to be overly disruptive. They still look a bit rough offensively though and we should be able to control the glass again tomorrow. It will be interesting to see who is responsible for guarding Daniels tomorrow and how they fare as we haven't faced too many strong frontcourt players so far. I'm hoping to see an improved assist to turnover ratio offensively tomorrow as the next step for what has been a pretty good offense from GW so far.

Projected Score: GW 82, New Hampshire 74. 78% chance to win (KenPom). ESPN gives us a 56.6% chance to move to 4-0 on the young season (somehow I feel like ESPN hates GW for some reason in the early going with these predictive percentages).
 

ESPN has us as a 2 point favorite
 

AT Hiker wrote:

ESPN has us as a 2 point favorite
 

ESPN shows 9.5.  Not sure where you are getting just 2.

Can't hear Patsos -- a blessing.

Apparently, they just woke up.

Star is Born

GJ

JBIV has 9 assists already and hasn't scored and seems perfectly content with that

The guy is carving out his spot as one of the great GW players in history

Whatever it takes for the W seems just fine for James Bishop IV

Last edited by The Dude (11/18/2023 2:08 pm)

Win + Cover

A rough start but hung tough and took control,  gotta love this team.

I saw no panic after the awful offensive start to the game. And they responded with poise to every attempt at a run by UNH thereafter. A very nice, gritty win by the good guys! I can’t wait to see how they do against Ohio.