GW wins by 40
Everyone plays
and everyone scores

ESPN gives us a 99% chance to win, but numbers like that scare me. Anything can happen in sports...

Assuming we hold a lead, we might as well give the end of the bench some experience and
give the walkons a decent run. Would like to see if Luke Cronin can use his height to advantage in the frontcourt.
    Not sure what this game does for us or how it makes sense, otherwise. Our schedule is weak enough as it is.

Zam and Antoine are not playing nearly enough relative to their respective talent and we're going to worry about playing the walk-ons a sufficient number of minutes?  I always have a soft spot for walk-ons but I am far more concerned with giving some quality minutes to Zam, Antoine, and Keegan if he's ready, willing and able.

Hi all:

      I am meeting an out of town older couple prior to the Bowie St game for either a drink, a cup of coffee or light snack and I am looking for a recommendation for someplace on or very close to campus (i.e. Washington Circle).   I haven't been to Tonic at Quigleys since it was just Quigleys, roughly half a century ago.  Would this be appropriate?   How aout Circa at Foggy Bottom, which I have driven past but have never entered.   Any other recommendations?     Thank you.  (I was going to post this as an "off topic", but since it is before the game....

Been to Tonic.  Good drinks and casual

Thank to you for your responses.  Do they still charge students for blue books?   I believe they were 4 cents in my day.  Still, it was the ultimate insult, irrespective of the cost.

Bowie State Bulldogs

Date: Tuesday December 12th, 2023
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Charles E. Smith Center
TV: ESPN+
Analytic Rank: 234th/297th (Massey)
2022-23 Record: 7-22, 5-11 (6th in Northern Division, T-12th in CIAA)
2023-24 Projected Record: 11-17, 5-12 (4th in Northern Division, 9th in CIAA)

Head-to-Head: 6-0*, although the previous six contests have all been as exhibition games. The most recent game during the 2016-17 season against the Bulldogs believe it or not was a very close contest - and that team had both Tyler (18 points, 13 rebounds) and Yuta (19 points). In fact, GW was actually losing by 9 at halftime and trailed by as many as 12 points during the game before pulling away in the second half to win 86-80. A +18 advantage in rebounding and major dominance at the FT line was the difference in the end. Bowie shot 59% in the first half. When you see a percentage like that, it's clear the team was asleep at the wheel - regardless of the relative youth on that team that had Jair Bolden, Juice Williams, Collin Smith (16 points, 8 rebounds), AT, and Kevin Marfo, among others - although with guys like Steeves (12 points), Sina and Hart, it was definitely a more experienced squad than this year's team.

In the 2013-14 season, GW won 85-68 behind 19 points and 5 threes made from Nemanja Mikic, 17 points/11 rebounds from Mo Creek, and a dominant 16 point, 16 rebound, and 7 block performance from Zeek Armwood. Stretch could have another similar performance in blocks. That GW team also fell behind by four points early before taking control. Get this, Miguel Cartagena had 11 points off the bench as well (wonder what he's up to these days). GW dominated the glass again with a +20 advantage but turned the ball over an unfathomable 30 times. Really hoping that's not the case tomorrow...

Two years before, the 2011-12 squad defeated the Bulldogs 92-65 which was ML's debut as coach at GW. Bowie State was ranked #8 in the nation (among D2 teams) at the time so the margin of victory was fairly impressive. Lasan Kromah led the way with 23 points and 6 assists, Tony Taylor had a near double-double with 12 points and 9 assists, and Aaron Ware added 12 more from off the bench. GW forced BSU into a total of 31 turnovers for the game. It feels like forever since GW has been that disruptive against anyone.

Finally, the 2010-11 team won 82-64 in their exhibition contest against BSU, behind a team-high 19 points from Tim Johnson, 11 from David Pellom, 11 from Mikic, and 10 more from Joe Katuka. It was the first meeting against Bowie State since the 1980s, where GW won by 51 and 40 points in 1982 and 1986 respectively.

Offensive Efficiency: 267th/297th
Defensive Efficiency: 155th/297th

Strengths:
Turnovers Forced Per Game - 17.7 TO/G (22nd)
Steals Per Game - 8.9 SPG (T-40th)
Offensive Rebounds Per Game - 12.8 ORPG (T-53rd)
Bench Points Per Game - 29.1 PPG (55th)
Blocks Per Game - 3.9 BPG (T-56th)
Assists Per Game - 15.6 APG (65th)
Rebounds Per Game - 37.8 RPG (T-88th)
Turnover Margin - +1.4 (T-93rd)

Weaknesses:
Field Goal Percentage Defense - 45.8% (202nd)
3-PT Field Goal Percentage - 32.2% (208th)
Points Per Game - 71.7 PPG (T-218th)
Field Goal Percentage - 42.8% (223rd)
Fastbreak Points - 7.6 PPG (226th)
3-PT Field Goal Attempts Per Game - 19 3PA (227th)
3-PT Field Goals Made Per Game - 6.1 3PM (T-232nd)
Opponent 3-PT Field Goal Percentage - 37.9% (245th)
Effective FG Percentage - 47.6% (246th)
Free Throw Attempts Per Game - 15.7 FTA (T-248th)
Turnovers Per Game - 16.2 TO/G (252nd)
Free Throws Made Per Game - 10.9 FTM (T-256th)

Key Returning Players:
Mark Bradshaw (Senior; Chester, PA) - 11 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.1 apg; 44% FG, 41% 3-PT, 73% FT per 23.1 mpg
Caleb Johnson (Junior; Baltimore, MD) - 8 ppg, 4 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.2 spg; 38% FG, 38% 3-PT, 76% FT per 26.9 mpg
Warren Mouganda (Sophomore; Washington, DC) - 8 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.2 apg; 44% FG, 31% 3-PT, 71% FT per 21.1 mpg
Kyree Freeman-Davis (Junior; Bowie, MD) - 7.1 ppg, 1.2 rpg; 43% FG, 34% 3-PT, 61% FT per 13 mpg
Joel Webb (Senior; Forestville, MD) - 6.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg; 56% FG, 58% FT per 22.9 mpg
Amare Wimbush (Sophomore; Landover, MD) - 5.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg; 32% FG, 9% 3-PT, 64% FT per 17.8 mpg
Anthony Carpenter (Senior; Reisterstown, MD) - 5.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.1 apg; 28% FG, 23% 3-PT, 83% FT per 23.1 mpg

Key Losses:
Quinton Drayton (Graduated; Bowie, MD) - 12.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg; 39% FG, 36% 3-PT, 79% FT per 23.9 mpg

Key Transfers:
Deven Richmond (Graduate Student transfer from Howard; Washington, DC) - 3.3 ppg, 1.6 rpg per 12.1 mpg (2021-22)
Corey Barnes (Sophomore transfer from Delaware State; Milton, DE) - 0.6 ppg, 0.8 rpg, 0.3 apg, 0.3 spg per 4.8 mpg

Preview:
Does this game make sense from a scheduling perspective? I think an argument could be made both ways. On the one hand, GW could have played a low level D1 team that would "count" and still allow the young team to continue to learn how to play together and limit unforced errors. It's also a choice to hold the game in December. Last year's Virginia State game as a season opener made some sense to ease the team in. I could have also understood it as an opener this year. The team played a couple closed scrimmages, but with no exhibition game facing Bowie State early on would have made sense. I just don't know how this Coppin State-Bowie State-Alcorn State-Maryland Eastern Shore portion of the slate is going to prepare the team for conference play but I'm sure CC had a reason (apart from exams of course). At the very least, I just feel one or two of those games could have at least been from different conferences for the sake of a different look/play style.

On the other hand, since this D2 game won't count against metrics (outside of W/L) it allows the team to try out a number of things. Even with it not counting, if GW was contending for a postseason bid I'm sure the committee would have judged how "well" they won, but that won't matter this year regardless. Truthfully, it also puts into perspective I think just how much harder scheduling is going to be for mid and low majors moving forward. The high majors are refusing to play certain schools from smaller conferences and are on top of that moving to more conference games making it that much harder to find D1 schools to play. 

Look at the Atlantic 10 this year. It's not just GW playing a non-D1 school. In fact, over half of the schools in the league (8) have done so/will do so this year:

Davidson - Washington & Lee (D3), Lynchburg (D3)
Duquesne - Cleary (NAIA)
George Mason - Bridgewater (D3)
George Washington - Bowie State (D2)
La Salle - Rosemont (D3)
Loyola Chicago - Goshen (NAIA)
Rhode Island - Johnson & Wales (D3)
St. Louis - Lincoln MO (D2)

Like I did with Virginia State last year, here's a look at all the D1 opponents Bowie State has faced since 2010. BSU is 1-12 in that span, with the only win being against Hartford, who sadly isn't even D1 anymore. Interestingly enough, GW has faced BSU more times (4) than any other D1 team. Duke and Mason are second with 2 matchups each:

    Year          Opponent          Margin
  2010-11   George Mason*   GMU by 37
  2010-11           GW*             GW by 18
  2011-12           GW*             GW by 27
  2012-13   George Mason*   GMU by 4
  2013-14          Duke*           Duke by 36
  2013-14           GW*             GW by 17
  2015-16        Hartford*          BSU by 3
  2015-16       Maryland          MD by 31    (this game was weirdly played in February)
  2016-17           GW*              GW by 6
  2017-18          Duke*           Duke by 63
  2018-19      Providence*       PC by 28
  2021-22        Howard*        Howard by 21
  2021-22      Marquette*        MU by 58

* = exhibition game

With GW facing Bowie State, I'm reminded of this "Bowie knife" map (among others) that Joshua Katz of NC State made about 10 years back. Given its location in the DC area, it's unsurprising that the school is pronounced Boo-wee instead of Bow-ee like the late singer. What's more fascinating is that weirdly Texas also pronounces the word the same way and no other state does in the country. Random but thought it was interesting:



Anyways, Bowie State alum and former GW assistant Darrell Brooks enters his 11th season with the program and has a career record of 201-147. He is the all-time winningest coach in school history and has won five divisional championships with an additional conference tournament championship. He also won conference coach of the year back in 2015. Brooks was part of some good GW teams as an assistant, including the teams that made the NCAA tournament in three consecutive years in the 2000s. He was also an assistant at other D1 schools previously, including Loyola (MD), George Mason, American, and William & Mary.

While the Bulldogs aren't projected to be a contender in their division/conference, they do return quite a few pieces from last year's team and should be able to take a step forward this year. BSU is definitely more of a defense-first team rather than one that will light the world on fire offensively. Despite that, there is a bit of firepower in the backcourt. Mark Bradshaw and Caleb Johnson return, the two most efficient three point shooters last season who attempted at least 15 threes.

Bradshaw, a transfer from D2 Quincy in Illinois, paced the team in makes (45) and made a team-best 41% of his attempts. Johnson showcased a more complete game, as he led the team in assists and steals while ranking second on the team in rebounding despite standing at just 6'2". Both Bradshaw and Johnson previously placed at the JUCO level.

Also returning in the backcourt are sophomore Warren Mouganda, junior Kyree Freeman-Davis, and senior Anthony Carpenter. Mouganda often served as the sixth man on the team last year, appearing in every game but starting few. He's a well-rounded player that will contribute in all facets of the game that may go unnoticed. Entering his second year, he could be primed for a larger role. Freeman-Davis is a strong three-level scorer offensively but is less of a factor on the defensive end. Carpenter handled secondary ball-handling duties outside of Johnson. Ordinarily I would say that his strong FT shooting (83% - led team) indicates a better shooter than what his terribly inefficient FG numbers suggest, but he's a senior so I'm not sure how much upside there is going into his final year.

For a D2 team, Bowie State actually has a bit more size than I expected which probably helps them a bit defensively against similar competition. That should allow 6'7" forwards Joel Webb and Amare Wimbush to potentially spend more time at the 3/4 positions. Webb is probably more of a 4, as he attempted just three shots from deep all of last year. He was one of the more efficient players along the interior though and led the team in rebounding. Wimbush had some brutal shooting numbers, especially from 3 where he went just 2/22 (9%) last year but there is a chance for significant improvement entering year 2.

The final returners from last year are sophomore forwards Detwan Montague and Tyler Buckhanon. Montague, a redshirt and St. Frances Academy product, had an offer from Coastal Carolina early in his recruitment (speaking of which, it was stunning to see Cliff Ellis retire suddenly the other day). He played more of a reserve role last season but showed promise as a capable scorer inside to complement Webb down low. Buckhanon's height at 6'9" may be his best attribute at the D2 level. He didn't get a ton of opportunity last year, but the potential is there to earn more minutes this season.

Six other newcomers enter the fold this year for the Bulldogs. Brooks landed two down-transfers from the MEAC in Howard grad transfer Deven Richmond and Delaware State transfer Corey Barnes. At Howard, Richmond (a DeMatha product) was more of a penetrating guard but after sitting out a year has become a bit more comfortable shooting threes (36% on a limited number of attempts). Barnes on the other hand has played more of a driver role at Bowie State thus far. He is a capable passer and is a disruptive defender on the other end.

Jimmy Sorunke adds significant height down low with his 6'11", 292 pound frame. While posting modest stats on a mediocre Seward County CC (JUCO) team last year, Sorunke showed a nice touch near the rim in limited time and will likely be able to rebound at a high level in the D2 ranks. Emmanuel Ayetigbo is another 6'7" forward with strength from New Jersey who could be in the running for spot minutes off the bench.

Finally, two true freshmen enter the fold in Kevon Corley and Jamaal Pinckney. Corley is a 6'6" tweener who has shot the ball well in limited time, but will likely need a bit of time to add strength in order to play significant minutes. Pinckney is a tough guard from Queens who will similarly have a hard time truly cracking the Bowie State rotation this year but could play a larger role down the line.

I look above and see that Bowie State's two greatest strengths are steals and forcing turnovers. Thus, turnovers remain the focus for tomorrow's game. It's not as much how many turnovers BSU forces, but how many unforced errors GW makes during the game. I'd imagine the underclassmen get significant run in the game, and it should allow us to get an extended look at the future of GW basketball before a break for exams.

Predicted Score: GW 90, Bowie State 58. 99% chance to win (Massey). ESPN also gives GW a 99% chance at a win.
 

DMVPiranha, gee, Texas does something differently than the rest of the country?  Who would have possibly thought this?

Putting politics away, I'll just offer one thought in response to your predictably thorough analysis (even against D2 opponents...quite impressive).  I don't think there was a real reason for CC to schedule this aside from the fact that he wanted predominantly home games on the OOC schedule.  I do think we could and should have scheduled a second true road game as a one-off rather than Bowie State.  The fact is that we did not want to do this.

Looking ahead, I already have concerns about the Jan. 3 meeting against Fordham.  Fordham has dropped a notch or two relative to last year, and in my mind, this would normally be a fairly easy winnable game at home (not an automatic win, but not an A10 Top 5 team either). However, coming off four consecutive games which SHOULD result in easy wins, I wonder if we show up on Jan. 3 a bit flat footed and shell shocked when our opponent is actually a competitive team.   I would hate to lose a winnable game because the team loaded up on cupcakes over 3+ weeks and was now too "fat" to play well.
 

Re: Western Market - Looks like a lot of choices here-- I think there's a Starbucks.

https://www.washingtonian.com/2021/10/22/foggy-bottom-western-market-food-hall-dc-is-now-open/