1 week out.  Looking forward to getting back to the Smith center

The Dude wrote:

With so many new transfers playing a big role this have to expect some real bumps early in the year, but hopefully things gel best as possible ASAP

Predicted starting 5 for Nov 4??  
 

Sorry but this doesn't fly anymore.

1) Virtually all college teams are experiencing more year-to-year roster turnover than ever before.  Everyone across the country has to get used to playing with new teammates.

2) We had plenty of turnover prior to the start of last season yet still managed to begin the year 14-3.  

3) A new team assembles for the most part by or around June 1.  Our players, and everyone else's players, receive more time than ever before to play together, learn each other's tendencies, etc.  Official practices start earlier than before but there are plenty of unofficial practices team drills, etc. prior to this.  

Everyone here wants to see the team succeed.  There's no reason to create excuses in the event that they don't, even before the season has started.

If we ignore him he will move onto something else.
Take note of all the threads he starts with the only contributors being himself. After about 2 or 3 days without a response, he starts a new one and the old one dies a quiet death.
IGNORE.

What exactly would you like to end?  People disagreeing with your positions?

Perhaps a message board is not the best thing for you.  A support group, perhaps?

Which Trey?

We got a line yet?

Mercyhurst Lakers
Date: Monday November 4th, 2024
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Charles E. Smith Center (Washington, DC)
TV: ESPN+
Ranks: 356th (KenPom), 362nd (Bart Torvik), 348th (Haslametrics), 280th (EvanMiya), 363rd (Sports Illustrated)
2022-23 Record: 15-16, 11-11 (T-5th in PSAC West)
2023-24 Projected Record: 11-20, 7-9 (T-5th in NEC)

Head-to-Head: First time facing the Lakers!

Offensive Efficiency: 348th (KenPom), 357th (Bart Torvik), 345th (Haslametrics), 258th (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 362nd (KenPom), 363rd (Bart Torvik), 346th (Haslametrics), 310th (EvanMiya)
Pace: 169th (KenPom), 50th (Bart Torvik), 199th (Haslametrics), 180th (EvanMiya)

Strengths (D2 ranks):
Scoring Defense: 66.2 PPG (19th)
Free Throw Percentage: 77.1% (22nd)
Turnovers Forced Per Game: 14.8 TO/G (42nd)
Turnover Margin: +2.1 TO/G (47th)
Steals Per Game: 7.8 SPG (66th)
Three Point Percentage: 36.3% (73rd)
Assists Per Game: 14.3 APG (90th)

Weaknesses (D2 ranks):
Three Pointers Made Per Game: 6.9 3PM/G (197th)
Offensive Rebounds Per Game: 8.6 ORPG (233rd)
Bench Points Per Game: 15.7 PPG (239th)
Three Point Attempts Per Game: 18.9 3PA/G (239th)
Free Throws Made Per Game: 11.5 FTM/G (245th)
Three Point Percentage Defense: 36.9% (248th)
Scoring Offense: 68.1 PPG (256th)
Free Throw Attempts Per Game: 14.9 FTA/G (261st)
Blocks Per Game: 1.8 BPG (265th)
Rebounds Per Game: 29.9 RPG (278th)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game: 21.3 DRPG (282nd)

Projected Starting Lineup:
#10 G Christian Gamble (Junior; Silver Spring, MD) - 4.5 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 2.1 APG; 41% FG, 37% 3-PT, 77% FT per 29.3 MPG/30 GP last year at Mercyhurst
#22 G Shemar Rathan-Mayes (Graduate Student; Toronto, Canada) - 2.2 PPG, 1.3 APG; 41% FG, 44% 3-PT, 69% FT per 10.3 MPG/30 GP last year at UNC Wilmington
#32 F Aidan Riechert (Senior; Jackson Center, OH) - 12 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1.4 SPG; 48% FG, 20% 3-PT, 75% FT per 28.1 MPG/31 GP last year at Mercyhurst
#31 F Jeff Planutis (Graduate Student; Hazleton, PA) - 17.4 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.5 SPG; 44% FG, 38% 3-PT, 87% FT per 35.8 MPG/31 GP last year at Mercyhurst
#21 F Max Jusianiec (Junior; Alfred, NY) - 5.9 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.1 APG; 40% FG, 38% 3-PT, 71% FT per 19.9 MPG/18 GP last year at Mercyhurst

Key Bench Players:
#1 G Sean Lang (Graduate Student; New Market, MD) - 2 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 1.6 APG; 35% FG, 25% 3-PT, 69% FT per 16.5 MPG/27 GP last year at Mercyhurst
#12 F Jesse Hafemeister (Graduate Student; Mendham, NJ) - 17.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1.2 SPG; 50% FG, 34% 3-PT, 81% FT per 29.4 MPG/28 GP last year at D2 Catholic
#23 F Charles McClennehan Jr. (Junior; Winston-Salem, NC) - 11.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG; 50% FG, 18% 3-PT, 72% FT per 23.6 MPG/32 GP last year at Butler CC
#4 G Bernie Blunt III (Senior; Morgantown, PA) - 20 PPG, 4 RPG, 2.1 APG, 1.1 SPG; 35% FG, 27% 3-PT, 92% FT per 36.1 MPG/28 GP last year at D2 Edinboro

Key Losses:
Sean Fullerton (Transferred to D2 Thomas Jefferson; Danbury, CT) - 11.6 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1.1 SPG; 48% FG, 43% 3-PT, 73% FT per 26.8 MPG/30 GP
Luke Triggs (Transferred to D2 Indiana (PA); Gainesville, VA) - 8.2 PPG, 3.7 RPG; 54% FG, 39% 3-PT, 79% FT per 17.9 MPG/27 GP
Adam Bilinsky (Transferred to D2 Pitt-Johnstown; North Huntingdon, PA) - 7.6 PPG, 1.6 RPG; 48% FG, 33% 3-PT, 90% FT per 21.3 MPG/9 GP
Alexander Parks (Transferred; Cincinnati, OH) - 5.2 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.2 SPG; 44% FG, 38% 3-PT, 77% FT per 18.5 MPG/31 GP

Preview:
You would think at some point we will see more schools leave D1 rather than join in the pay-for-play era, but that does not seem to be in the cards just yet, at least in the short term.Thus, we say hello to two more teams entering the D1 ranks this season: West Georgia and Mercyhurst. UWG joins a slightly more stable conference in the ASUN, but Mercyhurst's rise to the top division says a lot about the current health of the NEC, a conference that has ranked dead last per KenPom in net efficiency ranking the last two years and is likely to finish in the cellar again this year. For reference, the conference is rated 2.4 points worse than the next lowest conference, the SWAC.

It's amazing that I've even gone a couple sentences without mentioning conference realignment, where the NEC finds itself in a tough position long term. Right now, it seems like the WAC is the only conference that is in as tough a spot. The recent departures of Sacred Heart and Merrimack (a team that had been in the conference for only five years) to the MAAC reduced the NEC to just seven teams, and two of the seven are currently in their transition to D1 (Le Moyne and GW's first opponent last year in Stonehill).

If I remember correctly, I believe there is a rule that requires a minimum of six eligible teams in order to hold a conference tournament (the NCAA should either reduce the transition length or scrap it altogether), meaning that by necessity the NEC had to take on Chicago State, a team that has in the last 20 years gone from the Mid-Continent Conference to Independent to the Great West Conference to the WAC back to Independent to now the NEC. Travel costs are sure to go up for teams that were once part of a fairly clustered conference. To protect the conference from further realignment long-term, another school in Mercyhurst was plucked from the D2 ranks. Surprisingly, they are the only team named the Lakers in D1, and one of roughly 20 teams in CBB to share a team name with an NBA squad (side note: NBA team names are a lot more unique than NFL ones).

GW gets the honor of welcoming the private school from Erie to D1. This is the third straight year (all under CC) that GW will be facing effectively a D2 roster to begin the year after squaring off against Stonehill in the second year of their D1 transition last year and Virginia State the year before which is still in D2. While Mercyhurst is new to the D1 ranks, it is not completely foreign to head coach Gary Manchel. The 61 year old from Vermont played collegiately for his hometown Catamounts and is in his 23rd year coaching Mercyhurst but had previously spent eight years as an assistant at both Yale and Ohio. He was also the head guy at UMass Lowell for much of the 90s, although that was back when the River Hawks were still D2. Back in February, Manchel notably notched his 500th win as a head coach. An impressive feat irrespective of level.

Last year, the Lakers stumbled to a 15-16 record and an even .500 in the PSAC but prior to that Manchel was rolling, having made four NCAA D2 tournaments in five years. It may have been 5 in 5 had COVID not made an appearance during the 2019-20 season. Still, finishing under .500 in D2 isn't ideal when you're about to level up in competition. It says a lot about the current strength of the NEC that Mercyhurst is not picked dead last in the preseason poll (they are 7th).

One thing that will make the transition easier is a bit of continuity, as Mercyhurst brings back six players from last year's roster, and all of them are upperclassmen. On the flip side, you could make the argument that having continuity on a team that underachieved isn't too helpful.

Jeff Planutis is certainly one guy that I'm sure Manchel is glad to have back. His older brother Bobby began his career at Mount St. Mary's playing under Jamion and also had stints at both St. Bonaventure and Purdue Fort Wayne. On a team that struggled offensively last year, the younger Planutis was a standout. He scored effectively at all three levels, took nearly a quarter of the team's total shots last year, and posted top 100 rates in all of D2 in field goal attempts, field goals made, free throw percentage, minutes per game, and total points. His transition to D1 should be less steep compared to some of his fellow returners. Mercyhurst can even run offense through him as a point forward after he led the team with 76 assists a season ago.

Aidan Reichert will provide complementary scoring on the wing. The senior from Ohio is more of a slasher from the wing - he wasn't effective from deep last year but defensively is a good on-ball defender and paced the Lakers in rebounding last year.

Christian Gamble and Max Jusianiec will serve as the bookends on offense. Gamble, a local product from Silver Spring/Sidwell Friends lived up to his name defensively, as he committed the second most fouls on the team gambling for steals. Still, he was a steady ball handler who played a large role in ensuring that the Lakers move the ball effectively as a team. He shot well from 3 as well, albeit not on particularly high volume. Jusianiec originally played at the College of Saint Rose, which sadly closed its doors this year. Offensively, he can stretch the floor and move the ball well but I'm sure Manchel will be asking more of him defensively this year. As one of the taller players on the team, he'll have to average more than 3.6 rpg, and be more of a presence in the interior defensively.

Sean Lang and James Thomas round out the returners. Lang was a decent connector piece but struggled last year shooting the ball. Thomas, who began his career at D3 Chatham in Pittsburgh, finished well inside the paint but probably doesn't have a ton of upside.

Eight newcomers enter the fold, split between transfers from multiple levels and the high school ranks. They will look to help add depth for Mercyhurst, who didn't get a ton of production from their bench last year. Shemar Rathan-Mayes is the headliner, a quick but undersized guard who previously spent time at both UNC Wilmington and Youngstown State. Rathan-Mayes had a stellar freshman season back in 2020-21 with the Penguins, pouring in over 10 ppg while posting over a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio. That steady ball handling should fit right in with others on the team, however it needs to be mentioned that his production and minutes have continued to dip every season of college. Last year at UNCW he came off the bench after being a starter for much of his career at YSU. He's been a decent three point shooter in his career but his height has hampered him at times inside the arc.

Bernie Blunt III and Jesse Hafemeister will also be making the D2 to D1 transition. Blunt actually began his career at Quinnipiac before dropping down a level. He was "the guy" on a terrible D2 team, and fits the billing of a high volume guy that isn't particularly efficient. One area he does excel in is converting his FTs (92%). He can be a pesky on-ball defender, but is turnover prone and much like Rathan-Mayes does not bring positional size to the equation. Hafemeister is a more noteworthy addition, coming off a successful season at Catholic just down the road. He stuffed the stat sheet last year, leading the team in scoring while averaging over five rebounds a game. Hafemeister is a versatile defender, but will likely be at a height disadvantage again if asked to play the 3 or 4 OOC. Like Blunt, he also finished with more turnovers than assists so that will need to be cleaned up some as well. Still, he contributed to winning and that has to account for something.

Charles McClennahan Jr. comes in from the JUCO ranks where he ranked second on a pretty decent team in both scoring and rebounding. He was also good at crashing the glass on the offensive end, which may provide Mercyhurst with additional possessions should the offense continue to flounder. His best attribute may be the simple fact that he's 6'8" on a roster that could use anyone with that kind of size.

Four freshmen will look to earn playing time as well. Deshaun Jackson Jr. and Mykolas Ivanauskas arrive from the midwest, while Qadir Martin and Jake Lemelman hail from the northeast.

Jackson did a bit of everything for his local HS in Kentucky and can at the very least bring positional size/a different look in the backcourt compared to the smaller Blunt and Rathan-Mayes. Ivanauskas similarly brings a bit more height up front, and you'll probably not be surprised based on his name that he has the ability to step out and shoot it as a stretch forward. He prepped at Sunrise Christian Academy, which is always a successful program. GW has already faced two of Qadir's brothers before as both Hassan and Malik Martin suited up for URI in previous years. Based on that alone, I figure that he will make a sizable impact sooner rather than later. He averaged a near double-double last year in HS, and probably is the best hope for any kind of rim protection on this team, although he's just 6'5". Lemelman was the #22 ranked prospect in the state of Massachusetts class of 2024, per NERR. He is a crafty scorer and looks like a pretty good piece for them long-term, but likely needs to add a bit of strength this year.

Obviously, the thing that sticks out most is the lack of size on this squad. That's not unexpected for a team just beginning their transition to D1 but this should give GW the opportunity to look for buckets inside, whether that's to Rafael and Sean or see Jacoi and the Treys look to get downhill a bit more. Despite being fairly good on defense in the D2 ranks, the lack of positional size is likely to hurt them in OOC play both along the perimeter and inside. That's a problem for a team that already had trouble closing out on threes at the D2 level, and even more importantly, had no ability whatsoever when it came to finishing defensive possessions with a rebound. Pace plays a role, but even from a raw numbers perspective it's pretty poor when only four teams in D2 finished with fewer defensive boards per game. Despite these shortcomings, Mercyhurst should be more competitive come conference play.

Offensively, Mercyhurst has upside but they need to work on their shot selection. They get good looks due to their ball movement, but often settle for more midrange shots than they should. From the above "strengths" section, they were fairly efficient from both 3 and the FT line, but the problem was that they didn't take enough of those shots. Planutis does a good job in both these areas, but the newcomers and returners are going to have to help him out.

We're not going to get a ton of insight as to whether the defense has improved from this game, but I'm curious to see the ball movement on offense because I feel like the personnel on this year's team will move the ball a lot better than last year's team was able to. The offense got a lot of good shots, but there were times where I felt like they could have maybe had an even better look with an extra pass or two. I'm excited for the season to get underway!

Projected Score: GW 84, Mercyhurst 67. 94% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik gives us a 97% chance at a W.
 

Great write up as always!!! Now I know the season is starting - my daily DMV fix!!!

Much appreciated

Thank you DMV.  I truly appreciate your time and effort in these pregame previews.   I would like to think that GW, a team primarily of 3 star D-1 recruits, should have little problem with a team playing its very first game in D-1.   My prediction...GW 84 Mercyhurst 54,  and that everyone plays for GW, including non scholarship players.    My pleasant surprise of the game...Christian Jones, with honorable mention to Rafael Castro.