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GW opens up at 129.
Only non Q4 games are the loss to Kansas State (94, Q2) and the win vs Illinois State (153, Q3). Rest of non conference is all Q4. The Kansas state loss could fall to a Q3 loss if they struggle.
Doesn’t really matter since we likely aren’t getting an at large bid (that would be major surprise) but there will be roughly 8 Q1/Q2 games in conference play.
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The real shame of the K State loss was that because GW hadn't played anyone who remotely resembled K State with respect to size, speed or athleticism up until this game, they spent the first half a bit shell-shocked by the opponent. During the second half, they realized that Kansas State may have been a bit more talented but not demonstrably so, and they played a lot more like themselves. Had they been better prepared mentally to start that game, it's not unreasonable to think that GW could have pulled off the upset.
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Gwmayhem wrote:
The real shame of the K State loss was that because GW hadn't played anyone who remotely resembled K State with respect to size, speed or athleticism up until this game, they spent the first half a bit shell-shocked by the opponent. During the second half, they realized that Kansas State may have been a bit more talented but not demonstrably so, and they played a lot more like themselves. Had they been better prepared mentally to start that game, it's not unreasonable to think that GW could have pulled off the upset.
Alternatively, had they played someone remotely close to Kansas State they could have lost that game and still lost to Kansas State. They were mentally prepared. Just couldn't hit a shot in the first half. Shots started falling in the 2nd half and they made a comeback. Let's not over-complicate things. They realized they could play with Kansas State in the first half - just didn't make shots.
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GWRising wrote:
Gwmayhem wrote:
The real shame of the K State loss was that because GW hadn't played anyone who remotely resembled K State with respect to size, speed or athleticism up until this game, they spent the first half a bit shell-shocked by the opponent. During the second half, they realized that Kansas State may have been a bit more talented but not demonstrably so, and they played a lot more like themselves. Had they been better prepared mentally to start that game, it's not unreasonable to think that GW could have pulled off the upset.
Alternatively, had they played someone remotely close to Kansas State they could have lost that game and still lost to Kansas State. They were mentally prepared. Just couldn't hit a shot in the first half. Shots started falling in the 2nd half and they made a comeback. Let's not over-complicate things. They realized they could play with Kansas State in the first half - just didn't make shots.
Disagree about GW being mentally prepared at the start of the game. You aren't down by nearly 20 points at halftime by simply missing shots. They were pretty nervous/rattled in the first half. Jun found out that he couldn't just barrel his way to the hoop against bigger guys down low. Nearly all of the shots from the perimeter were contested as well. Even off the few misses, the Revs were slowing down and resetting on offense when clearly operating against a set K State defense was challenging.
After halftime, CC embraced getting out in transition more which helped a great deal. KSU can be pretty sloppy with turnovers/handling the ball, so speeding things up/generating a bit of pressure exposed that weakness more. The Wildcats have been pretty erratic overall to start the year, but defensively GW had no answer for KSU's frontcourt. Almost every trip down the court one of their two forwards was wide open (partly due to the over-switching) but their size was a problem. That happened again during the VMI game the other day (not becuase of size, but switching). Too many breakdowns inside/inability to guard penetration, although the perimeter defense has significantly improved from earlier in the year.
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They missed 8 layups in the first half according to the running play-by-play of the game. Five of these came in the game's first 6 minutes. They had missed 6 layups before successfully making their first one. I get that many of these are contested but that feeds into my point even more. They were likely a bit intimidated to start the game and as DMVPiranha correctly points out, were rattled by K State's defense.
8 missed layups is not quite the same thing as "missing shots."
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GW18 wrote:
GW opens up at 129.
Only non Q4 games are the loss to Kansas State (94, Q2) and the win vs Illinois State (153, Q3). Rest of non conference is all Q4. The Kansas state loss could fall to a Q3 loss if they struggle.
Doesn’t really matter since we likely aren’t getting an at large bid (that would be major surprise) but there will be roughly 8 Q1/Q2 games in conference play.
While I continue to think the very weak OOC SOS doesn't do the team any favors, the A10 is very good this year, so the team still controls its own destiny. There are lots of opportunities for good wins on the schedule. They could even get an at large bid to the NCAA tournament, if they don't lose any more OOC games, only lose 2 or 3 A10 games, and make a good showing in the A10 tournament. Not at all likely, but theoretically possible.
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Getting the games scheduled, even if were ready (are we?) is very difficult in today's NCAA
Took Mark Few and Gonzaga forever to get into these Tier 1 Top Shelf tourneys and a few juggernauts, even as with Elite 8 trips etc. They play Kentucky UCONN and UCLA in the next 2 weeks, already having banked 5 Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins 8 games into the season, and ranked #3 in the NET
If CC aspires to be something like that and who wouldn't want that, its going to take a long time, to even get those kind of teams on the schedule.
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The Dude wrote:
Getting the games scheduled, even if were ready (are we?) is very difficult in today's NCAA
Took Mark Few and Gonzaga forever to get into these Tier 1 Top Shelf tourneys and a few juggernauts, even as with Elite 8 trips etc. They play Kentucky UCONN and UCLA in the next 2 weeks, already having banked 5 Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins 8 games into the season, and ranked #3 in the NET
If CC aspires to be something like that and who wouldn't want that, its going to take a long time, to even get those kind of teams on the schedule.
Again, I don't think anyone on this board expects CC to have an OOC schedule like Gonzaga's. I just want us to have an OOC SOS that is average for the A10, not bottom 10 in the country.
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How about instead of thinking we should have upset Kansas State. we win at American on Wednesday night. Last two times (12/10/22 and 11/12/19) we played AU it was at the Smith Center and we lost both times.
When we start winning easily at American and at Old Dominion (Saturday) we can go back to complaining about the weak schedule.
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GW73 wrote:
How about instead of thinking we should have upset Kansas State. we win at American on Wednesday night. Last two times (12/10/22 and 11/12/19) we played AU it was at the Smith Center and we lost both times.
When we start winning easily at American and at Old Dominion (Saturday) we can go back to complaining about the weak schedule.
Exactly, until then, discussing being prepared for Kansas State is a red herring.
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GW73 wrote:
How about instead of thinking we should have upset Kansas State. we win at American on Wednesday night. Last two times (12/10/22 and 11/12/19) we played AU it was at the Smith Center and we lost both times.
When we start winning easily at American and at Old Dominion (Saturday) we can go back to complaining about the weak schedule.
This really misses the point. First, are the two mutually exclusive? Second, my post had far more to do with the team's lack of confidence to start the game against K State than it did the OOC schedule. Simply playing a P5 program, something that GW has done less and less with each passing year, could have been enough on its own to get inside the minds of our players. Of course this can't be proven as a fact, but it's more than reasonable to conclude that when a team misses 5 layups in the game's first 6 minutes and 8 by halftime, they might feel a bit intimidated, nervous, or both. Which is what was the shame as I don't feel that GW's team was significantly worse than K State's team. A more confident first half may easily have resulted in a different outcome. That, too, does not mean we SHOULD have pulled the upset. It is to say that the upset would have been well within the team's reach.
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As I think I noted, what I saw in person in the VI is that we were initially unable to handle to K St’s size and speed but adjusted in the second half. Great comeback to get within 4, and then Hawkins hit a big 3. Never got any closer.
I continue to be concerned that our frequent switching on defense creates bad matchups. My observation about good defensive teams is that they usually fight over screens instead of switching.
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Gwmayhem wrote:
GW73 wrote:
How about instead of thinking we should have upset Kansas State. we win at American on Wednesday night. Last two times (12/10/22 and 11/12/19) we played AU it was at the Smith Center and we lost both times.
When we start winning easily at American and at Old Dominion (Saturday) we can go back to complaining about the weak schedule.This really misses the point. First, are the two mutually exclusive? Second, my post had far more to do with the team's lack of confidence to start the game against K State than it did the OOC schedule. Simply playing a P5 program, something that GW has done less and less with each passing year, could have been enough on its own to get inside the minds of our players. Of course this can't be proven as a fact, but it's more than reasonable to conclude that when a team misses 5 layups in the game's first 6 minutes and 8 by halftime, they might feel a bit intimidated, nervous, or both. Which is what was the shame as I don't feel that GW's team was significantly worse than K State's team. A more confident first half may easily have resulted in a different outcome. That, too, does not mean we SHOULD have pulled the upset. It is to say that the upset would have been well within the team's reach.
If missing layups (or shots) early were primarily the result of being unprepared or nerves, you could argue that was the case against Mercyhurst where we scored 9 points in the first 10 minutes. But nobody argued that. Wonder why?
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I think the point being missed here is that GW was not afraid of K State or went into the game thinking they had no chance. What many of you miss is that many of the GW players have played against these same players in AAU, HS or summers. The idea that teams are intimidated by P5's is nonsense these days because of player familiarity. Now maybe if you were playing the number one team in a 20,000 seat arena on national tv there might be some more nerves than usual but the whole mental preparedness thing is exaggerated these days. I promise you that the GW kids do not lack for confidence.
Last edited by GWRising (12/02/2024 5:06 pm)
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GWRising wrote:
Gwmayhem wrote:
GW73 wrote:
How about instead of thinking we should have upset Kansas State. we win at American on Wednesday night. Last two times (12/10/22 and 11/12/19) we played AU it was at the Smith Center and we lost both times.
When we start winning easily at American and at Old Dominion (Saturday) we can go back to complaining about the weak schedule.This really misses the point. First, are the two mutually exclusive? Second, my post had far more to do with the team's lack of confidence to start the game against K State than it did the OOC schedule. Simply playing a P5 program, something that GW has done less and less with each passing year, could have been enough on its own to get inside the minds of our players. Of course this can't be proven as a fact, but it's more than reasonable to conclude that when a team misses 5 layups in the game's first 6 minutes and 8 by halftime, they might feel a bit intimidated, nervous, or both. Which is what was the shame as I don't feel that GW's team was significantly worse than K State's team. A more confident first half may easily have resulted in a different outcome. That, too, does not mean we SHOULD have pulled the upset. It is to say that the upset would have been well within the team's reach.
If missing layups (or shots) early were primarily the result of being unprepared or nerves, you could argue that was the case against Mercyhurst where we scored 9 points in the first 10 minutes. But nobody argued that. Wonder why?
You don't think that starting off so slowly against Mercyhurst could be attributed to nerves, playing as a team in a real game for the first time? Of course it can. Wondering why nobody argued this? Perhaps because GW won that game by 17!!!
My whole point in bringing this up was to say that GW lost the K State game primarily because of the nerves they experienced during the first half. This, again, was a shame because the teams were closer in ability than the one sidedness of the first half would have indicated. Why you're bringing Mercyhurst into this is anyone's guess.
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They say championships aren’t won in Nov, Dec.
Most coaches want to see steady improvement, growth and good chemistry.
This team is very early in its growth curve together and has shown that they want to be challenged. CC has said he wants to get Dayan and Ty into the mix to try some different looks.
May sound random, but remember when Kevin Larson
early on looked overweight and like he needed to be resuscitated when he sprinted the length of the floor?
Who would’ve thought he would later knock down 3’s and bang and rebound in the tournaments. Transformation does happen.
Let’s beat AU and wait and see who develops the consistency we yearn for. We have some quality athletic talent!
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Gwmayhem wrote:
GWRising wrote:
Gwmayhem wrote:
This really misses the point. First, are the two mutually exclusive? Second, my post had far more to do with the team's lack of confidence to start the game against K State than it did the OOC schedule. Simply playing a P5 program, something that GW has done less and less with each passing year, could have been enough on its own to get inside the minds of our players. Of course this can't be proven as a fact, but it's more than reasonable to conclude that when a team misses 5 layups in the game's first 6 minutes and 8 by halftime, they might feel a bit intimidated, nervous, or both. Which is what was the shame as I don't feel that GW's team was significantly worse than K State's team. A more confident first half may easily have resulted in a different outcome. That, too, does not mean we SHOULD have pulled the upset. It is to say that the upset would have been well within the team's reach.
If missing layups (or shots) early were primarily the result of being unprepared or nerves, you could argue that was the case against Mercyhurst where we scored 9 points in the first 10 minutes. But nobody argued that. Wonder why?
You don't think that starting off so slowly against Mercyhurst could be attributed to nerves, playing as a team in a real game for the first time? Of course it can. Wondering why nobody argued this? Perhaps because GW won that game by 17!!!
My whole point in bringing this up was to say that GW lost the K State game primarily because of the nerves they experienced during the first half. This, again, was a shame because the teams were closer in ability than the one sidedness of the first half would have indicated. Why you're bringing Mercyhurst into this is anyone's guess.
I am bringing Mercyhurst into this because there are going to be periods when we don't play very well or shoot it well when there is no other explanation except that we aren't playing to our ability. There is no evidence that it was nerves versus Kansas State anymore than it was Mercyhurst. If it was primarily nerves, surely they would have made a ton of turnovers as well. That didn't happen either. One would also think that if it was primarily nerves then GW would have been blown out because they would have said at half down 19 that we can't play with these guys and would have had nothing to alleviate those nerves. Actually, what happened was they were mad that they were missing some good wide open looks and understood that if they kept playing hard they had a chance to get back into it. I don't think it goes any deeper than 25% FG in 1st half to 48% FG in 2nd half. Finally, I have sources who would defnitely say if it was nerves. But if you want to continue to insist it was nerves be my guest. We had a bad half - it happens against opponents of all levels.
Last edited by GWRising (12/02/2024 6:04 pm)
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GWRising wrote:
I am bringing Mercyhurst into this because there are going to be periods when we don't play very well or shoot it well when there is no other explanation except that we aren't playing to our ability.
Agree with this to a degree. There's certainly games/halves where the team is cold shooting the ball. It happens, and GW has definitely had stretches already where they've had good looks and the shots just haven't gone down.
However, there are sometimes reasons for why the team isn't playing to their ability. GW has got off to slow starts all season. Is all of this due to nerves? No, but I don't think it's ridiculous to point to nerves playing a role in the slow starts to the Mercyhurst and Kansas State games in particular (since these are the ones that have been mentioned). In the case of Mercyhurst, it was the first game of the season and there's some jitters that come with that. For Kansas State, it was the first game away from the Smith Center and the Revs were facing off against the most exciting team on their schedule. This doesn't necessarily have to do with being scared of KSU or anything like that (going in, I thought GW could keep things close). If the poor play happened exclusively in the second half, I think dismissing the nerves would maybe be more credible. The team is also still largely on the younger side.
GWRising wrote:
There is no evidence that it was nerves versus Kansas State anymore than it was Mercyhurst. Finally, I have sources who would definitely say if it was nerves.
This feels contradictory. There's no evidence that nerves played a role, but you have sources that know for a fact that nerves played no role? If your sources say that nerves did not play any role in the performance of the first half then I'd really question it. Of course, there's never any one reason for a poorly played half or game, but nerves were apparent.
GWRising wrote:
One would also think that if it was primarily nerves then GW would have been blown out because they would have said at half down 19 that we can't play with these guys and would have had nothing to alleviate those nerves.
This feels like a strange thing to say. Teams are capable of resetting, calming down, and making adjustments. There's no set time for the nerves to go away - sometimes it's a media timeout, sometimes it's a half, sometimes it's longer.
GWRising wrote:
Actually, what happened was they were mad that they were missing some good wide open looks and understood that if they kept playing hard they had a chance to get back into it. I don't think it goes any deeper than 25% FG in 1st half to 48% FG in 2nd half.
I guess agree to disagree about the quality of looks in the first half. On some of the open looks that GW got, they looked nowhere close to going in which felt like nerves to me (but again we may not agree on this). I just feel like it's too simplistic to just simply attest the struggles to just missing open shots. For what it's worth, I think the bigger issue overall was adjusting to KSU's length, which GW had not seen against any opponent prior. The Wildcats contested jump shots well along the perimeter and Jun had multiple shots swatted on takes to the rim he's able to usually make against weaker competition. Playing faster and preventing KSU from getting set after halftime helped boost the offense.
Anyways the thread is about NET so this is the last thing I'll say about the KSU game.
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Wisconsin Colonial 1974 wrote:
As I think I noted, what I saw in person in the VI is that we were initially unable to handle to K St’s size and speed but adjusted in the second half. Great comeback to get within 4, and then Hawkins hit a big 3. Never got any closer.
I continue to be concerned that our frequent switching on defense creates bad matchups. My observation about good defensive teams is that they usually fight over screens instead of switching.
I think switching everything, or at least switching 1 through 4, is modern basketball. The ideal is to have enough versatile athletic guys out there to switch and guard everything without mismatches.
I will say, last year, teams could hunt Bishop or Max for mismatches, but this year it’s tougher. Maybe teams can try to exploit Moss’ lack of size or get a quicker guy matched up on Drumgoooe or Autry, but there’s no one who is just a bad defensive player out there like the past few years.
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Again, 8 missed layups in the first half. 5 within the first 6 minutes of the game. If nerves and let's call it an intimidation factor based on going up against this tall and athletic a team are two separate categories, then let's attribute the slow start and subsequent loss to both of these things.
Suggesting that the reason for the loss was because the team missed open shots without even factoring the opponent into this equation is akin to burying one's head in the sand.