Block or Charge wrote:

Does anyone know if there's a block of tickets for the AU game available through the GW ticket office? If I remember correctly, in the past there have been tickets behind the visitor's bench that could be purchased through the GW box office.

Needs to be purchased through AU ticket office. Section 116 behind visitor's bench is the recommended section.
 

Which student section this year gets to chant "We pay more!!"?

Gwmayhem wrote:

Am very hopeful that GW enters the game mindful of the fact that AU has won the last two meetings at Smith Center, and 3 of the last 5 meetings overall.  One of the two GW wins in that span was just by 4 points.

City rivalry games are not supposed to be easy. Just like GW often had a "nothing to lose" mindset in its many matchups against Maryland, the same is true for AU in this series.  I am old enough to remember a series of close games where Gary Williams was the head coach and Boo Bowers was an unstoppable force for the Eagles.  Of course, Kermit Washington came before Bowers but that was a bit before my time.

AU has won 4 in a row including a Puerto Rico tournament where they knocked off Albany and Kansas City.  Plus, I can only assume it will be one last opportunity to watch Lincoln Ball though for all I know, he could have found a way to have 3 more years of eligibility.  GW should be OK if we don't dip to either extreme...can't play "not to lose", and can't be overconfident to the point where they are not taking the opponent seriously.  I worry more about the former than the latter in this one. 

I think you can safely assume the recent past has been brought to the team's attention. Results are mot guaranteed lol.

Colonials vs. Eagles at Fort Meyer.   Clyde vs. Kermit.  Is American gonna beat us...HELL NO!

American Eagles
Date: Wednesday December 4th, 2024
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Bender Arena (Washington, DC)
TV: ESPN+
Ranks: 239th (KenPom), 228th (Bart Torvik), 265th (Haslametrics), 237th (EvanMiya), 239th (Sports Illustrated)
2023-24 Record: 16-16, 10-8 (T-2nd in Patriot)
2024-25 Projected Record: 16-15, 10-8 (T-1st in Patriot)

Head-to-Head: 21-26, and the Eagles have won the past two meetings (by a combined seven points - they won at the buzzer back in 2019, spoiling a monster 20 point, 24 rebound performance from Toro). Neither team has shot the ball great from deep in the past couple of matchups. The Revs have gone a combined 14/53 from distance (26%) in those games, while AU was 12/42 (29%). It would definitely help if the team could continue its recent shot making from deep on Wednesday. This will be the first meeting at AU since 2003, when the Eagles won 81-75.

In the last meeting back in 2022, GW trailed at the half by six but had multiple chances down the stretch to potentially send the game to overtime. Amir Harris came up with three steals in the last couple of minutes, but GW only cashed in on one of those extra possessions. BA missed a three with 43 seconds left down 4, and Amir later missed a layup with GW down 3. Ricky finished with 18 points and 9 rebounds, JB added 14 points and 7 assists, and BA had 12 points. Of course, the last matchup also featured a memorable moment when a dog performing during the halftime show ran onto the court early in the first half (the audio fluctuations add to the entertainment):




Offensive Efficiency: 182nd (KenPom), 170th (Bart Torvik), 201st (Haslametrics), 172nd (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 301st (KenPom), 304th (Bart Torvik), 338th (Haslametrics), 312th (EvanMiya)
Pace: 357th (KenPom), 355th (Bart Torvik), 358th (Haslametrics), 355th (EvanMiya)

Strengths (2023-24 Season):
Three Pointers Per Game: 8.7 3PM (54th)
Three Point Attempts Per Game: 24.8 3PA (56th)
Scoring Defense: 68 PPG (66th)
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 53% (76th)
Turnovers Per Game: 10.8 TO/G (88th)
Assist/Turnover Ratio: 1.29 AST/TO (90th)

Weaknesses (2023-24 Season):
Steals Per Game: 5.8 SPG (265th)
Turnovers Forced Per Game: 10.8 TO/G (272nd)
Offensive Rebounds Per Game: 9 ORPG (274th)
Field Goal Percentage Defense: 45.5% (280th)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game: 23.6 DRPG (291st)
Scoring Offense: 68.7 PPG (299th)
Rebounds Per Game: 32.6 RPG (314th)
Fastbreak Points: 6.3 PPG (316th)
Free Throws Made Per Game: 11.1 FTM (325th)
Free Throw Attempts Per Game: 15.4 FTA (331st)
Three Point Percentage Defense: 37.1% (335th)
Blocks Per Game: 1.7 BPG (346th)

Projected Starting Lineup:
#1 G Elijah Stephens (Senior; Waco, TX) - 12.1 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 4.9 apg, 1.3 spg; 46% FG, 33% 3-PT, 82% FT per 30.1 mpg/29 GP at American last season
#3 G Colin Smalls (Graduate Student; Upper Marlboro, MD) - 5.3 ppg, 1.7 rpg; 44% FG, 31% 3-PT, 74% FT per 19.3 mpg/23 GP at American last season
#23 F Greg Jones (Sophomore; Alexandria, VA) - 2.9 ppg, 2.3 rpg; 38% FG, 28% 3-PT, 78% FT per 16.8 mpg/32 GP at American last season
#33 F Matt Mayock (Sophomore; Berwyn, PA) - 8.6 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1 apg; 47% FG, 42% 3-PT, 71% FT per 25.1 mpg/28 GP at American last season
#15 F Matt Rogers (Graduate Student; Knoxville, MD) - 16.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.6 apg; 50% FG, 37% 3-PT, 73% FT per 28.2 mpg/31 GP at American last season

Key Bench Players:
#12 G Geoff Sprouse (Junior; Pembroke Pines, FL) - 8.8 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.4 apg; 41% FG, 38% 3-PT, 88% FT per 21.2 mpg/26 GP at American last season
#4 G Lincoln Ball (Graduate Student; Williamsport, MD) - 4.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 2.1 apg; 36% FG, 23% 3-PT, 68% FT per 28.6 mpg/32 GP at American last season
#25 F Eric Michaels (Freshman; Poughkeepsie, NY)
#7 G Wyatt Nausadis (Freshman; Traverse City, MI)
#32 F Julen Iturbe (Freshman; Greenville, SC)

Key Losses:
Lorenzo Donadio (Graduated; Rome, Italy) - 9.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.3 apg; 43% FG, 33% 3-PT, 63% FT per 29 mpg/32 GP
Jermaine Ballisager Webb (Transferred to Portland; Stjaer, Denmark) - 7.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg; 58% FG, 63% FT per 13.1 mpg/22 GP

Preview:
Now that the sit out rule no longer exists, it's getting tougher every season to identify who is on what team. Gone are the days where a player stays at a school for four years and graduates from the same institution that they committed to. Getting a player to even redshirt now is a challenge, but that probably changes in the coming years when the number of scholarships per school increases to 15. This consistent turnover affects the majority of leagues around the country, however some of that "old school college basketball" feel still exists in a couple of conferences.

The Patriot and Ivy Leagues still somewhat care about the "student" part of the student athlete, making it tougher to just bring in any player from the transfer portal. In fact across the Patriot League (ten teams), there are just four total players coming in from other schools: Quinn Nielsen is going from The Citadel to Boston U, Achile Spadone landed at Bucknell from Davidson, Jacob Theodosiou left Wyoming for Loyola Maryland, and Gabe Warren went from one strong academic school to another (Rice to Holy Cross). That means any upside year-to-year comes from internal development and the window for contending is more cyclical - although tell that to Colgate and Matt Langel, who have dominated the league for the last several years. The goal is to prevent transfers out, as any lost production from transfers or graduations has to be made up by freshman recruits/internal players instead of portal guys.

American is one of the teams in the Patriot league not dealing with nearly as much turnover, so it's not too surprising to see them picked second in the preseason poll, behind only Colgate who may be as vulnerable as they've ever been in recent years. Continuity really helps in this era, and AU trails only Purdue Fort Wayne and Columbia in KenPom's continuity metric, two teams that have been great to begin the year. The Eagles are now being coached by Duane Simpkins, a former standout for the Maryland Terrapins as a player who has previous experience as a coach at both the high school and college levels. He was the head guy at both Sidwell and St. Albans from 2005-2011 and spent 11 years as a collegiate assistant between UNC Greensboro and George Mason. Simpkins, now in his second year with the program, succeeded Mike Brennan, who was the head guy for ten seasons. Brennan took the Eagles to the NCAA tournament in his very first year, but failed to get AU back there after that point. American has shown to have a long leash when it comes to coaches, as prior to Brennan, Jeff Jones was at the helm for 13 years (I'll mention him more prior to Saturday's game against ODU). Bottom line is that Simpkins will be given every opportunity to succeed there.

One thing that has remained consistent across Jones, Brennan, and now Simpkins is the methodical pace. In the past 24 seasons, AU has ranked in the top 200 in tempo just once (KenPom). It's a smart strategy, especially in years when the team skews young and there is shakier ball handling. Possessions are minimized, and it allows the team to keep games close. We've seen that in past GW matchups, and something to watch for tomorrow will be whether the Revs can find any success revving up the pace.

Playing slowly has meant that most of AU's games have been relatively close. Four of their seven D1 contests to date have been decided by single digits, including a road contest against a High Point team that was considered to be one of the better mid-major teams coming into the year. Despite a 52 point loss to #10 UNC, it was only a nine point game at halftime. They also fell at La Salle to begin the year, but it seems the Explorers are slightly improved this season.

Unfortunately, regardless of how fast you play at the end of the day getting stops is crucial. That's something that's alluded AU - like GW they've been pretty brutal defensively recently, and that's especially true the past few years or so. The best teams in the Patriot League are strong shooting the ball. Simpkins found that out the hard way in his first year, as the Eagles conceded far too many looks from outside and paid the price for it (337th in opponent 3P%). Brennan's squads wisely ran their opponents off the three point line, and it seems like Simpkins has learned his lesson so far - AU is currently 19th nationally in opponent 3P attempt percentage this season. Additionally, even when their opponents missed last year, they often got second chance opportunities and American struggled to make opponents uncomfortable.

Offensively, the Eagles have been fairly efficient (especially inside the arc), however despite their commitment to minimizing possessions there were too many moments where they didn't get a shot up due to turnover issues, and when they missed they were not getting any second chance opportunities, made that much more glaring when they were giving up extra chances on the other end. As you'd guess, AU rarely got out in transition, but even in the half court they didn't get to the FT line often enough either, meaning that manufacturing offense was a struggle at times.

While AU is unlikely to light up the scoreboard or dominate the glass, expect Matt Rogers to be the driving force for the Eagles in both categories. He can stretch the floor (37% last year, although he's off to a slow start this season), but is significantly more efficient when he goes inside. Rogers posted the second best field goal percentage in the Patriot, trailing only Caleb Kenney of Holy Cross. He also finished third in the league in points per game (16.3), which earned him first-team all-Patriot honors last year.

Rogers' conference leading 158 made field goals were largely assisted by Elijah Stephens, who may be small in stature at 5'9" but is large in impact. While a so-so shooter, Stephens dished out nearly five dimes a game last season - no other player in the Patriot returning this year had more now that Braeden Smith, last year's leader, transferred from Colgate to Gonzaga. Stephens is also a pest on the ball, a trait that his backcourt mate, the veteran Colin Smalls, has also shown at times this season. Despite his last name, he is bigger than Stephens at 6'2".

Smalls is off to a scorching start shooting the ball this year, nailing over 48% of his long-range attempts. He will be the main perimeter threat to watch if Geoff Sprouse continues to be sidelined with an ankle injury (he's been out their last four games). Sprouse is a career 36% shooter from deep to date, and he took over 80% of his attempts from there last year. He has rated pretty poorly defensively in his collegiate career. Per EvanMiya, he has posted a team worst -2.01 defensive box plus minus so far this year, and last year he was second worst in that category after Smalls. While Stephens has shown some defensive ability, there's no getting around the fact that American lacks positional size at the point of attack. That's magnified when two of the Stephens-Smalls-Sprouse trio are on the court together.

Sprouse was actually not the most potent long range marksman on the team last year. That title goes to Matt Mayock, who paced the team in both three point makes (55) and percentage (42) with 73% of his shots coming from there. Fellow rising sophomore Greg Jones will likely occupy the final starting spot. Jones had an offer from GW earlier on in his recruitment after stuffing the stat sheet at Hayfield Secondary School, whose football team has unfortunately been in the headlines due to controversies over recruitment and internal culture. Jones struggled with efficiency as many freshmen do, but has been more productive in his second year.

AU's final returning piece will be a familiar name, as the Buff and Blue will get one final matchup against old friend Lincoln Ball, who is the perfect low-usage glue guy that any team could use. Ball actually led the Eagles in rebounding last year, and made good decisions with the ball. He's not going to go off as a scorer, but he doesn't need to in order to be impactful. Not everyone will be a subscriber to the "revenge game" theory, but it felt like Lincoln was always making a winning play when AU defeated GW a couple years back. His stat line of seven points, five rebounds, four assists, three steals, and three blocks summarized his impact during that game very well.

Three freshmen have seen action so far, and all have bright futures in DC. Eric Michaels has helped out on the boards and has flashed a nice touch near the hoop. He is a few inches shorter than the departed Jermaine Ballisager Webb, but he may already be a better defender than him. I've only watched a few minutes of Portland this season, but Ballisager Webb was consistently torched on defense in the minutes I saw. Michaels has already swatted ten shots this year - that's twice as many as Ballisager Webb had all of last season. Julen Iturbe is another forward option, arriving in the nation's capital from the Palmetto State. Iturbe provides Simpkins a stretchier option, which could be a nice complement to Rogers and open up things in the paint. Finally, Wyatt Nausadis shot the ball well in his prep year at The Newman School in Boston but has so far struggled in his first games of college basketball. Expect him to see roughly ten minutes of action or so.

Winning on the road is never easy, and this game being a local rivalry will only make it that much tougher. Again, the key will be speeding things up and tiring the Eagles out. Of course, having more depth like Dayan and Ty available would help. The three point shots will hopefully continue to fall, but GW shouldn't have trouble going inside. AU has no one over 6'9", meaning that Rafael should have the upper hand again. Putting Rogers, the fulcrum of their offense, in foul trouble wouldn't be a bad idea either. The perimeter defense has looked better, but the key will be limiting AU's forwards tomorrow. During the VMI game, there were several breakdowns leading to easy baskets inside. I feel like GW is due against American.

Projected Score: GW 73, American 69. 64% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik predicts a 54% GW victory. ESPN gives the Revs a 57.5% chance at a W.
 

As always, Piranha with an exceptional preview. He is good enough to make it the board a paid site. Wish I was as confident as he is about tonight's game. AU's continuity in the lineup and home court advantage will be tough to overcome.

Can't speak to NET rankings, but per Ken Pom, Columbia, at 8-0, is ranked at 137, which is worse than GW at 129.   There are no other teams with 0 or 1 loss that is ranked lower than GW.    GW's OOC SOC is an embarassing 358 of 364.   Of the teams with a worse OOC SOC is Columbia (362) and power 5 teams, DePaul (dead last at 364), Missouri at 361, Utah at  363 and Ge**getown (at 359).   Despite the worse SOC, Depaul at 7-0 is ranked 95, Missouri is 61 is ranked 61, Utah at 61- is ranked 60 and Ge**getown at 7-1 is 87.   

Long Suffering Fan wrote:

Can't speak to NET rankings, but per Ken Pom, Columbia, at 8-0, is ranked at 137, which is worse than GW at 129.   There are no other teams with 0 or 1 loss that is ranked lower than GW.    GW's OOC SOC is an embarassing 358 of 364.   Of the teams with a worse OOC SOC is Columbia (362) and power 5 teams, DePaul (dead last at 364), Missouri at 361, Utah at  363 and Ge**getown (at 359).   Despite the worse SOC, Depaul at 7-0 is ranked 95, Missouri is 61 is ranked 61, Utah at 61- is ranked 60 and Ge**getown at 7-1 is 87.   

As an illustration of how much variance exists between the NET and KenPom, the NET has Columbia at #75 and GW at #133.  Apparently, Columbia's win at Villanova is quite meaningful in the NET calculations.  Suffice it to say that GW does not have anything on its resume that's remotely comparable to this.

AU yet to make a shot inside the arc. In a gym with funky sightlines and depth perception like AU´s, that is not going to win them many games.

Are these refs serious? 10 minutes for a nothing burger?
Let’s goooo