Old Dominion Monarchs
Date: Saturday December 7th, 2024
Time: 4:00 PM ET
Venue: Chartway Arena (Norfolk, VA)
TV: ESPN+
Ranks: 328th (KenPom), 310th (Bart Torvik), 346th (Haslametrics), 330th (EvanMiya), 233rd (Sports Illustrated)
2023-24 Record: 7-25, 3-15 (14th in Sun Belt)
2024-25 Projected Record: 10-20, 5-13 (13th in Sun Belt)

Head-to-Head: 8-5, although Old Dominion has won the past two matchups (sounds eerily similar to the AU series). This will be the first matchup against the Monarchs since 2003, which was also on the road. It just so happened that GW would play at AU later the same season. In the most recent tilt, ODU came out on top 72-62. That Monarch team finished #101 on KenPom and went 17-12 overall. The biggest issue for GW during the game was turnovers, as they coughed up the ball 22 times. Despite that, they went into halftime with a slim one point lead. Sadly, ODU could not miss after the break, making nearly 60% of their shots, and nailing 6/8 shots from distance. GW meanwhile shot just 35% from the field and did not make any threes in the second period.

Pops led the team in scoring with 17 points (and 6 rebounds). Ricky Lucas added 15 points, and Omar Williams pitched in 11 points and 7 rebounds of his own. Somehow Mike Hall did his best Sean Hansen impersonation and only took one shot in 26 minutes of action.

Offensive Efficiency: 319th (KenPom), 269th (Bart Torvik), 336th (Haslametrics), 329th (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 304th (KenPom), 319th (Bart Torvik), 330th (Haslametrics), 305th (EvanMiya)
Pace: 128th (KenPom), 113th (Bart Torvik), 133rd (Haslametrics), 105th (EvanMiya)

Strengths (2023-24 Season):
Turnover Margin: +2.1 TO/G (51st)
Steals Per Game: 7.8 SPG (52nd)
Fastbreak Points: 12.2 PPG (67th)
Turnovers Forced Per Game: 13 TO/G (83rd)
Turnovers Per Game: 10.9 TO/G (93rd)

Weaknesses (2023-24 Season):
Free Throw Attempts Per Game: 17.2 FTA (268th)
Fouls Per Game: 18.2 PF/G (281st)
Assist/Turnover Ratio: 0.95 AST/TO (284th)
Three Point Percentage: 31.8% (285th)
Three Point Percentage Defense: 35.3% (288th)
Field Goal Percentage: 42% (299th)
Scoring Defense: 77 PPG (304th)
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 47.6% (305th)
Free Throws Made Per Game: 11.4 FTM (308th)
Scoring Margin: -6.1 PPG (315th)
Free Throw Percentage: 66.2% (326th)
Rebound Margin: -5 RPG (329th)
Winning Percentage: 21.9% (335th)
Assists Per Game: 10.3 APG (339th)

Projected Starting Lineup:
#10 G Jaden Johnson (Freshman; Waldorf, MD)
#4 G Robert Davis Jr. (Sophomore; Detroit, MI) - 4.1 ppg, 1.6 rpg; 34% FG, 31% 3-PT, 75% FT per 13.7 mpg/30 GP at Massachusetts last season
#6 G Sean Durugordon (RS Senior; Harlem, NY) - 18 ppg, 7.3 rpg; 41% FG, 30% 3-PT, 84% FT per 28.8 mpg/14 GP at Siena last season
#23 F RJ Blakney (Senior; Baltimore, MD) - 7.9 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.2 spg; 46% FG, 30% 3-PT, 66% FT per 25.5 mpg/32 GP at Old Dominion last season
#0 F Stephaun Walker (Junior; Washington, DC) - 9.9 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1 apg; 50% FG, 29% 3-PT, 71% FT per 25.9 mpg/31 GP at Robert Morris last season

Key Bench Players:
#13 G Devin Ceaser (Junior; Waldorf, MD) - 9.3 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 1 spg; 41% FG, 33% 3-PT, 68% FT per 16.5 mpg/30 GP at Old Dominion last season
#35 C Caelum Swanton-Rodger (Junior; Calgary, Canada) - 1.5 ppg, 1.7 rpg; 61% FG, 50% FT per 6.6 mpg/31 GP at Maryland last season
#11 F Dani Pounds (Sophomore; Atlanta, GA) - 2.8 ppg, 3.9 rpg; 46% FG, 64% FT per 15.6 mpg/31 GP at Old Dominion last season
#1 F Caden Diggs (Freshman; Waldorf, MD)

Key Losses:
Vasean Allette (Transferred to TCU; Toronto, Canada) - 17.4 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.8 spg; 45% FG, 35% 3-PT, 61% FT per 32.2 mpg/19 GP
Chaunce Jenkins (Transferred to Seton Hall; Newport News, VA) - 15.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.7 apg; 40% FG, 32% 3-PT, 72% FT per 32 mpg/31 GP
Tyrone Williams (Graduated; Philadelphia, PA) - 13.5 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.1 apg, 1.5 spg; 43% FG, 27% 3-PT, 61% FT per 30.9 mpg/31 GP
Bryce Baker (Transferred to Winthrop; Mooresville, NC) - 5 ppg, 2.3 rpg; 35% FG, 34% 3-PT, 58% FT per 19.7 mpg/32 GP

Preview:
Last season was unfamiliar territory for Old Dominion and Monarch nation. The school has been in the division 1 ranks for 48 seasons now, and very rarely have they struggled in the way they did in 2023-24, and that even includes their early years in the top division of college basketball. In their first year as an independent back in 1976, they went 25-4. It's a program with storied history - they've made the NCAA tournament 12 times. The previous campaign was just the third time they've failed to win even 10 games, and the first since the disastrous 2012-13 year that would be Blaine Taylor's last at the helm. While that ODU team had a better KenPom ranking than last year's team, they had a worse net rating.

Of course, there were many reasons for the season from hell. Last December, ODU was one of the participants in the Diamond Head Classic out in Hawaii. What was supposed to be a fun time filled with stiff competition on the court and fun in the sun was disturbed when Jeff Jones, who sat atop the throne for the past decade (following stops at both American and Virginia), suffered a heart attack. Jones had been battling prostate cancer for a while, and the health emergency ultimately forced him to step away for the rest of the season as he got his fourth treatment for the same condition. He formally retired from coaching entirely in February. That's a terribly way to go out - had he been able to finish out the season he may have been able to coach his 1,000th career game. Still, winning 560 games at the D1 level is not something that many coaches can say they have accomplished.

Amidst a bit of dysfunction, ODU actually did walk away with one win in the MTE although given that the opponent was Temple let's just say some skepticism is warranted as to whether that win was "earned" with the suspicious gambling activity surrounding TU's games. At the time, it was probably just considered a one off, but perhaps the result should have been questioned more given their only other wins were against Drexel (in overtime), Radford (by 1), and Virginia Wesleyan. In fact, they only beat VWU, a D3 school, by 14 points which was less than their margin of victory against the Owls (15).

Unfortunately, the Temple win did not end up being a turning point in ODU's season. The slide continued as they began Sun Belt play (their second year in the conference) 1-7. Just when you think it couldn't get worse, it somehow did. Leading scorer Vasean Allette was suspended and eventually dismissed from the team for "conduct unbecoming of a Monarch" (I'm sorry, that phrasing is somewhat hilarious). It shouldn't be too surprising that ODU bottomed out, winning just three games after the new year. A special shoutout to Marshall, who somehow managed to account for two of those wins.

Interim coach Kieran Donohue was not given the full-time job but he deserves credit for guiding ODU through such a turbulent year. The next man in line to the throne is Mike Jones, one of the school's all-time great players. He was part of the 1995 team that knocked off Villanova in triple overtime, which was one of the three times the school has notched a win in the big dance. Prior to getting the head gig at his alma mater, Jones spent 25 years coaching elsewhere, making him worthy of his new position. He continued the strong tradition of success at DeMatha, winning over 500 games across 19 years and captured nine regular season WCAC titles. Jones was at Maryland last year, and was the top assistant at Virginia Tech the two years prior. His stint at VT is important to highlight here, as he probably played a big role in Jun originally committing to the Hokies. I'd be surprised if he didn't have a game plan for Buchanan going into the game.

Given that (Mike) Jones is a first time head coach at the collegiate level with a newly assembled roster, it may be hard to gauge how he wants to play on both sides of the ball right away. Historically, ODU has had the reputation of playing relatively slow and grinding out wins with their stout defense. It's not just the Jeff Jones era either: per KenPom, the Monarchs have ranked better defensively than offensively in 26 of the last 28 seasons, and they've been top 100 in defensive efficiency in 16 of those. Hopefully the coaching change will make ODU more watchable offensively once the new Jones puts together the roster he wants. The Monarchs have felt stuck in the past for the last 15+ years. Someone needs to tell them that the three point shot is a game changer. They've neither recruited shooting nor taken a large proportion of their shots from there in a very long time.

Last year's team was 359th nationally in 3P attempt rate, and they were equally as inept inside the arc. ODU didn't get to the line much either, and even when they did they often bricked those shots as well. There's just not a whole lot of nice things to say about 2023-24 ODU's ability to score. At least previous teams earned extra chances by crashing the glass hard. The most recent squad didn't even do that. If there were positives, Donohue had them playing a lot faster/in transition and the Monarchs did win the turnover battle - although that didn't really matter when they couldn't throw the ball into the ocean.

If nothing else, a complete reset is a good thing for this team. Unfortunately, the bad fortune carried over to the offseason when a key rotation cog in Imo Essien passed out during a preseason practice. Essien, who had previously collapsed his sophomore year in a game against Georgia Southern, probably made the right decision to step away from basketball for this season. Hopefully he makes a full recovery and gets to take the court next year.

All three double figure scorers depart. Along with Allette, Chaunce Jenkins (who served as the "get out of jail free" card for ODU when they had no other options late in the shot clock) left for a brutal Seton Hall squad and Tyrone Williams graduated. While those losses leave big holes to be filled on both sides of the ball, a pair of returners/Maryland natives in Devin Ceaser and RJ Blakney should provide a good starting point. I'm sure Jones is familiar with both which should help ease the transition of a coaching change.

Ceaser has continued to serve as the spark plug from off the bench this year and currently leads the team in scoring. He answered the bell after Allette was cut from the team with three consecutive double figure scoring performances in conference play. Ceaser's three point shot has never come around in his college career but expect him to be among the shot attempt leaders on Saturday. Blakney meanwhile should be familiar to GW fans - he's scored a combined 20 points in four career meetings against us, although he really struggled when Dayton lost in Foggy Bottom two seasons ago. I believe he may have also had a GW offer an eternity ago. After a strong first couple seasons shooting the ball, Blakney has struggled with his shot from 3 since 2022-23. That's especially true with regards to his efficiency in general this year, although he has remained a steady on-ball defender.

The final returner from last year is Dani Pounds, who started 20 games and rebounded at a pretty good rate. He doesn't operate exclusively inside, but given his track record so far he may want to pound the ball inside as he's made just one three in 18 attempts. Expect Pounds to see roughly ten minutes or so off the bench.

Jones had to get busy in the portal this offseason. In the backcourt, Sean Durugordon (Siena) and Robert Davis Jr. (UMass) will give the Monarchs some added offensive juice.

Durugordon sat out early last year as the NCAA mandated that guys who have gone portaling more than once have to sit out (we all saw how that played out in court lol). He may have been better off just sitting the rest of the year given just how bad Carm's squad was. I'm not really sure he boosted his stock much by putting up 18 ppg for an atrocious team - he was already a known commodity when he left Austin Peay. Anyways, in addition to his natural scoring abilities, Durugordon is also a very good rebounder on both sides of the ball, and unlike the other guys I've mentioned so far he's having a career year from 3 so far (36%).

Davis, who has some Maryland ties of his own as he played AAU ball with Team Melo, is probably more "shooter" than "scorer". Over 80% of his attempts were from deep at Amherst last year, and so far this year 77% of his tries have come from downtown, although he's been somewhat mediocre from distance between last year and the current season. Davis is capable of scoring explosions, as he showed last year when he made six threes against West Virginia. Last year, he had eight total points against GW in two contests. When Davis is not launching from 3, expect him to be a primary creator for others - something he didn't have to do at UMass.

In the frontcourt, Stephaun Walker (Robert Morris) and Caelum Swanton-Rodger (Maryland) figure to play big roles in their first year in Norfolk. Walker, a DC native, is not much of a floor stretcher but he will attack the glass hard and finish strong inside. I believe he is good friends with Jun so that should be a fun side matchup to watch in the game. Swanton-Rodger, who follows Jones from College Park, did actually see the floor for the Terps, appearing in 52 games across two seasons. The seven footer is somewhat raw offensively, but is active on the boards and more importantly can serve as a rim protector for the Monarchs. I didn't list him in the starting lineup since he came off the bench in their last game against William & Mary (and they won that game) but I wouldn't be surprised if he was re-insterted into the starting lineup to guard Rafael (he started every game prior to the W&M game). Hampton transfer Donovan Raymond is another option with good size, but he doesn't figure to be a major factor.

This season is all about looking to the future for ODU. Expect a few freshmen to play sizable roles. Jaden Johnson has started every game at the point for the team since day 1. While that has come with some sloppy turnovers at times, Johnson has a knack for getting into the lane and scoring inside. GW was actually the first school to ever offer him a scholarship (under JC) back when he was at Bishop McNamara, and I was honestly confused that he didn't have a more active recruitment given his skills. He eventually did a prep year at Fork Union which helped him gain a bit more exposure. Caden Diggs is the third native of Waldorf, MD on the roster alongside Ceaser and Johnson (I guess he would be called a Waldorfian?). He too had a GW offer and even visited his senior year I believe. The three-star prospect (according to 247Sports) was a pretty good get for ODU long-term. Vytautas Žygas has seen some occasional run this year. The Lithuanian wing has shown the ability to finish inside at a good clip. Scottie Hubbard hails from Jun's high school (Jackson-Reed) and could be another good long-term piece.

Old Dominion is not devoid of talent or experience, but their only wins are over a non-D1 in Randolph-Macon and two other schools with brand new coaches in Maryland Eastern Shore (by 2) and William & Mary (by 5). Again, they've lost to Duquesne, a bad Buffalo team, and were boat raced by a mediocre Boston College team by 30. If GW is unable to bounce back from Wednesday night, that would be a bad sign. Regardless of competition, GW is going to need some three pointers to fall and better FT shooting to prevail - really just better execution in general.

Projected Score: GW 77, Old Dominion 70. 74% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik predicts a 68% GW victory. ESPN gives the Revs a 77.6% chance at a W.
 

Having trouble rebounding again.

Both teams are hard to watch—which is an unfortunate theme for several years.

Pointed this out before.
But if Sean  Hansen is shooting 60 pct, 6 for 10 as announcers said--and they weren't all easy shots,shouldn't we try more to get the ball to him outside the arc?
  Maybe he will wind  up like everyone else,but perhaps worth a shot,so to speak.
Just a crazy thought.

Moss has to be the biggest disappointment this year. I wasn't expecting him to be an all conference player or anything but this is rough

Like other games other team is getting way too many offensive boards. Box out somebody!

Castro following up his soft game vs. American with a 2 point, 2 rebounding, 0 assist game. As a team, our under 5 second at the end of the half defense has not been outstanding, allowing scores all 3 times.  Just what does this team work on in practice?

Last edited by Long Suffering Fan (12/07/2024 4:58 pm)

“Love” that end of half offense

It's time to panic!!!  Buchanan scoring zilch. Castro a non-factor. ODU is a 3-6 team, we (somehow) were 8.5 point favorites, and the analytics favored us 72-28%. It's time for Caputo to stop pacing and coach!!!

Seems like Caputo and the women's coach have same style.  John Chaney would be horrified.