anyone have a clue on Jun status for this one? was nice to survive without him, but element of surprise is now gone

Rhode Island Rams
Date: Wednesday January 8th, 2025
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Ryan Center (Kingston, RI)
TV: ESPN+
Ranks: 95th (KenPom), 104th (Bart Torvik), 100th (Haslametrics), 96th (EvanMiya)
2023-24 Record: 12-20, 6-12 (T-10th in A10)
2024-25 Projected Record: 21-9, 10-8 (T-5th in A10)

Head-to-Head: 35-31. Rhody's victory at the Smith Center ended a four game winning streak for GW in the series. The Rams blew out the Revs 88-65, but URI was actually trailing GW going into halftime. You would think that Rhode Island was hot from 3 or something when they put up 88 points, but they were actually just 4/16 from deep. GW's losing streak would continue a fair bit longer, however the second half of this game showed early signs of the wheels falling off. The Buff and Blue simply did not run back in transition or defend penetration in the halfcourt. Once Akingbola fouled out, the lack of interior defense was even more staggering. URI shot over 60% from inside the arc, putting up 53 points in the second period. Unfortunately, the Revs were unable to get it going from anywhere, shooting a dismal 5/29 from deep and 10/19 from the FT line. They were also outrebounded by 11 against the Rams. Jun finished with 23 points and 6 rebounds, getting to the FT line 10 times (but making only half), while Max added 18 points and 6 boards of his own.

The last game at the Ryan Center came two seasons ago, with GW winning in overtime 89-80. As was the case for many games that season, GW's lack of depth resulted in meltdowns late in the game. Rhody got back into it, but the Buff and Blue were able to reset in the extra five minute period, doubling URI 18-9 in points and finishing the game shooting 52% from the field (but only 61% from the line).

Offensive Efficiency: 130th (KenPom), 139th (Bart Torvik), 132nd (Haslametrics), 114th (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 92nd (KenPom), 92nd (Bart Torvik), 78th (Haslametrics), 103rd (EvanMiya)
Pace: 36th (KenPom), 35th (Bart Torvik), 40th (Haslametrics), 44th (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 141st
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 205th
Rim & 3 Rate: 89% (47th)

Strengths (2024-25 Season):
Defensive Rebounds Per Game: 30 DRPG (3rd)
Free Throw Attempts Per Game: 28 FTA (3rd)
Free Throws Made Per Game: 20.2 FTM (3rd)
Winning Percentage: 85.7% (17th)
Three Point Percentage Defense: 28.4% (21st)
Fastbreak Points: 15.7 PPG (23rd)
Rebounds Per Game: 40.4 RPG (29th)
Scoring Offense: 81.8 PPG (53rd)
Field Goal Percentage Defense: 40.3% (58th)
Scoring Margin: +11.4 PPG (69th)
Three Point Percentage: 36.1% (77th)
Blocks Per Game: 4 BPG (87th)
Fouls Per Game: 15.7 PF/G (88th)
Rebound Margin: +4.6 RPG (90th)

Weaknesses (2024-25 Season):
Steals Per Game: 5.9 SPG (289th)

Projected Starting Lineup:
#1 G Sebastian Thomas (Senior; Providence, RI) - 18.3 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 6.4 apg, 2.2 spg; 46% FG, 37% 3-PT, 74% FT per 34.4 mpg/12 GP
#10 G Jamarques Lawrence (Junior; Plainfield, NJ) - 10 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 3.4 apg, 1.1 spg; 40% FG, 38% 3-PT, 89% FT per 28.7 mpg/14 GP
#22 F Tyonne Farrell (Freshman; Baltimore, MD) - 6.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 1.2 apg; 47% FG, 60% 3-PT, 49% FT per 21.2 mpg/14 GP
#23 F David Green (Senior; Apopka, FL) - 15 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.2 apg; 47% FG, 42% 3-PT, 88% FT per 27.7 mpg/14 GP
#31 C Javonte Brown (RS Senior; Toronto, Canada) - 10.1 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 2 bpg; 67% FG, 64% FT per 22.1 mpg/14 GP

Key Bench Players:
#2 G Jaden House (Senior; Richmond, VA) - 10.1 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 1.5 apg; 46% FG, 35% 3-PT, 83% FT per 24 mpg/14 GP
#24 F David Fuchs (Sophomore; Vienna, Austria) - 5.9 ppg, 7.1 rpg; 52% FG, 17% 3-PT, 60% FT per 17 mpg/14 GP
#4 G Cam Estevez (Sophomore; Harlem, NY) - 4.4 ppg, 1.5 rpg; 32% FG, 28% 3-PT, 75% FT per 15.9 mpg/14 GP
#55 F Drissa Traore (RS Junior; New York, NY) - 3.4 ppg, 3.1 rpg; 43% FG, 23% 3-PT, 68% FT per 14.2 mpg/14 GP
#7 G Quentin Diboundje (Senior; Montpellier, France) - 3 ppg, 2.5 rpg; 27% FG, 75% FT per 10.3 mpg/4 GP

Key Losses:
Luis Kortright (Transferred to Washington; Manhattan, NY) - 10 ppg, 4 rpg, 3.7 apg; 44% FG, 30% 3-PT, 67% FT per 30.3 mpg/32 GP
Zek Montgomery (Transferred to Bradley; Louisville, KY) - 9.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.5 apg; 43% FG, 32% 3-PT, 70% FT per 25.5 mpg/31 GP
Brandon Weston (Transferred to Tennessee State; Brooklyn, NY) - 5.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.4 apg; 43% FG, 40% 3-PT, 78% FT per 19.3 mpg/27 GP
Jeremy Foumena (Transferred to Mississippi State; Montreal, Canada) - 5.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg; 53% FG, 32% 3-PT, 38% FT per 12.9 mpg/28 GP

Preview:
Six Atlantic 10 schools hired new coaches back in 2022. Of course one of those institutions was GW when they brought in CC, but perhaps no coach generated more buzz that offseason than Archie Miller taking over for David Cox at Rhode Island. URI has had plenty of good teams in the past 25 years and they have good fan support but only two Dan Hurley squads in the 2010s have been able to make the big dance since 2000. Miller took Dayton to four consecutive tournaments, but as we all know it's tough not to do well at a basketball institution like UD. His time at Indiana wasn't great, but I'm starting to wonder whether the Hoosiers are lower in the pecking order than many seem to think in the modern era. I guess we'll see what happens if IU ultimately decides to move on from Mike Woodson this coming offseason.

Archie's first year in Kingston did not go great, which shouldn't be too surprising given what he inherited. Ishmael Leggett was a stud and someone I wanted GW to land coming out of HS but he had basically no help and we all know the Bray experiment did not pan out both on and off the court. To this day, I do wonder how things would have panned out for Freeman had he stayed at GW. I think he benefitted from not being a primary option (which helped his efficiency), but it's good he seems to have found somewhat of a home at Bethune-Cookman. Rhody was very bricky with their shooting in year 1, with really their free throw shooting (and rate) being the one saving grace on that side of the ball. Their defense was adequate enough to win a few games by one or two possessions (including against Dayton) but it was too flawed a team that coughed up the ball at an alarming rate (20.4% of possessions, per KenPom).

After the year 1 disaster, Miller did a lot better about finding contingency plans - particularly in the backcourt. The team was a lot more balanced and competent when it came to shooting the ball. Funnily enough, the improved efficiency from the field was offset by poor free throw shooting, something the 2022-23 squad was actually decent at. Rhody continued to struggle with ball handling miscues an inopportune times, and unfortunately the careless ball handling was compounded by the fact that the Rams never forced any turnovers against the opposition (355th nationally), resulting in teams getting whatever shots they wanted (well I guess except for last year's GW team). Ultimately, URI still fell below .500 during OOC (although they beat Yale) and they really limped to the finish line at the end of the season. In their final 16 games, the Rams went just 3-13. The 23 point GW win was an outlier, as their only other victories were against Fordham and La Salle, with both victories decided by single digits.

Coming into the year, I was skeptical that URI would be able to take a step forward as it seemed like Archie was just not pushing the right buttons in his first couple of years. However, it seems like he may have figured something out as Rhody finally seems to be on the rise in the A10. They certainly got off to a great start to begin the year, blowing out their first five opponents by double digits (including common opponent Lafayette). Most notably, the 38 point Charleston win really got everyone's attention. It's possible that the Cougars may have had just a tough game, somewhat like Dayton had against us a few days ago but it was still a very impressive result nonetheless.

While URI has gone 7-2 since that time, all seven wins have been by single digits. The drop off in their stellar level of play early on felt inevitable, as the Rams were one of 17 teams to outshoot their opponents by over 10% from distance in the first month of the season. Will Warren released a really interesting article discussing long-term shot variance from deep last month that goes more in detail. While Rhody is shooting over 36% for the season, they are just 38/123 from distance in their last six (30.8%) and 11/36 (30.6%) in their first two conference contests. Haslametrics has them 325th in momentum, which seems to fall in line with the recent results.

Under Miller, Rhode Island has gradually upped their tempo. This year, the foot is firmly on the gas pedal as the Rams rank 40th in adjusted tempo this season, per KenPom. That has certainly helped the offense, as URI has frequently found good quality shots before the opposition can get set. The emphasis on getting to the line has remained consistent from his first team. Per Haslametrics, Rhody is second nationally in near proximity attempt percentage (shots close to the rim). Despite the uptick in tempo, the Rams have improved their ball security and passing. In general, they are a lot more cohesive as a unit. As alluded to above, I do think their defense is in store for some regression with regards to opponent shooting but they definitely do a great job of limiting second chance opportunities. Turning teams over continues to be low on the priority list.

The key cog to everything Rhode Island does on both sides of the ball starts with Sebastian Thomas, a native of the Ocean State who boomerangs back to the school after a season at Albany. I'm not sure whether it was dropping down a level or simply being more of a featured guy, but Thomas has really elevated his game since his first two year stint at URI. He's continued to improve all parts of this game, including his distance shooting which is at a career best 37%. Thomas leads the A10 in assists per game at 6.4 helpings per game (14th nationally), and is roughly top 60 in both points per game (18.3 ppg) as well as in free throw attempts. Unlike the team as a whole, he does make things happen defensively, ranking 40th nationally in steals per game as well. He's posted 20+ points in five of his past six games and currently finds himself on the all-KenPom team in the A10. Slowing him down will be priority #1, and that starts with limiting his looks at the rim.

Rhody has good balance. The presence of David Green inside prevents opponents from fully focusing their efforts on just Thomas. The forward from Florida previously played at both Hofstra and Louisiana Tech and may just be the best shooter on the team (averages two made threes per game). Green ranks 47th nationally in free throw percentage, and is a perfect 11/11 in the team's past four games. He's been a bit quieter in URI's first two A10 contests so far but is hard to stop when he gets going. Yale found that the hard way when he drained six threes on them.

Nebraska transfer Jamarques Lawrence and Connecticut/Texas A&M/Western Michigan transfer Javonte Brown also fit specific roles on the team. Lawrence is a strong 3-and-D guy who can defend (1.1 spg) and serve as a secondary playmaker to Thomas in the backcourt (averages 3.4 apg). He's knocked down 27 threes at a 38% clip so far this season but is just 3/14 in Rhody's last three games. Still, the Jersey native has shown to be a high-level shotmaker. Brown is a fascinating player. The 7-foot Canadian center did not do much at UConn or A&M, and even at WMU he was simply a rotation guy coming off the bench. The fact that he has emerged as a starter who can score effectively inside, rebound at a high clip (had 13 boards against GMU the other day) and provide rim protection on the other end (2 bpg) has been very surprising and a huge boost for Rhody. I guess sometimes you just need the right opportunity.

True freshman Tyonne Farrell has earned the final starting spot so far this season. The Baltimore native attended the same HS as JB (Mount St. Joseph). He rebounds well for his position and has been an effective offensive weapon when he lets it fly. Strangely, his three point shooting (6/10 on the year) is higher than his FT shooting (49%). Farrell is just 1/6 from the field in A10 play so far but the 6'6" wing has been fairly impressive in his first year of CBB and carries a lot of intrigue moving forward.

With Always Wright sitting out the year to get right (wright?) from a shoulder injury, the play of former High Point guard Jaden House and sophomore Cam Estevez has become more crucial. House has the scoring gene, but the Richmond native has had question marks at times with regards to his efficiency. After a roaring start to the year where he averaged 17.5 ppg in his first four games, House has cooled off a bit but he remains a solid option as a microwave scorer from off the bench. Estevez was a player I was pretty impressed with last year, but he's having a season somewhat similar to Jacoi so far this year - 32% from the field, and 28% from 3. It seems that Archie has cut his minutes in A10 play, as he's averaging just 5.5 mpg. While Rhody has been fairly solid defensively this year, this guard pair has been a bit shaky on that end. Per EvanMiya, House and Estevez have the two lowest defensive box plus minus scores on the team.

Up front, St. John's transfer Drissa Traore and sophomore David Fuchs will see key minutes. Unlike the guard tandem above, this duo is stronger on defense. Traore only got limited chances under Pitino at SJU, but he is a high energy guy who fights hard on the glass. I think you can live with him taking shots on the offensive end. Fuchs, a native of Austria, leads Rhody in rebounding (7.1 rpg) and is effective in using his frame to finish inside. Neither can stretch the floor much for the Rams.

Archie has more or less gone with that nine man rotation. That is, before the last game where jumbo French guard Quentin Diboundje saw some action against Mason and made some big plays down the stretch. If I remember correctly, Diboundje was someone who GW was recruiting once upon a time. He's never really developed into a finished offensive product but having played at both Tennessee and East Carolina previously he does have a solid floor as a defender at the very least.

This will definitely be a tough game, but hopefully GW is able to carry some momentum over from the Dayton game (along with the defensive energy and ball movement from that contest). The Revs just haven't been particularly great away from home which gives me pause that they can pull out a victory in Kingston. Given Rhody's recent results, it would be disappointing if we can't keep this within a couple of possessions but that may be a tough ask if Jun is out another game. As mentioned above, Rhody has been fortunate that other teams haven't rained threes on them, yet it wouldn't be surprising to see GW have an off night from 3. After the Richmond and Dayton games, it feels inevitable that such a game is on the horizon (although of course I hope not). Both teams love getting to the line, but hopefully that doesn't ruin the flow of the overall game. I was very impressed with CJ on Saturday but I still don't think GW has a guard that can go toe to toe with Thomas tomorrow.

Projected Score: URI 78, GW 73. 32% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik predicts a 24% GW victory. ESPN gives the Revs a 30.3% chance at a W.
 

DMVPiranha, I can't thank you enough for these game previews.  They are always equal parts informative and well-written.  I don't know the amount of time you put into these but please know how appreciated your efforts are not by just myself but also by many others, I am sure.

It will be nice to not have to see Montgomery who had a career day against us last year (30 points off the bench) as well as Kortright who did a little bit of everything against us.  Both have transferred out.  The guy I distinctly recall destroying GW last time is Jaden House (23 points despite 0-5 shooting from 3).  He drove the lane at will and there was nothing GW could do to stop it.  Interesting that he is now coming off the bench, and perhaps a testament to how improved URI has become.  I recall Archie Miller during A10 Media day discussing how excited he was to coach this year's team and it did not strike me as lip service or coach speak.  Of course, Sebastian Thomas is becoming a star.  Plays completely under control and calmly hit the game winner against Mason on Saturday.

For the limited road success that GW has had through the years, Kingston, RI has been a relatively kind place to GW all things considered.  They are unbeaten at home though the schedule has not exactly been a murderer's row short of what's becoming a subpar Providence team.  URI will play fast but should not turn GW over too frequently.  Am hoping Jun returns and that our depth is once again used as the asset it should be.

Someone posted DMVPiranha's preview on the Rhody board and this was a response:

"That game preview is from a fan whose commitment to their basketball program is the polar opposite of their school’s commitment to their basketball program.

Impressive."

Also multiple comments about how the preview was too long and they didn't read it, which maybe gives you an insight as to the quality of education at URI

Should be two fouls on Thomas.  Ref really did URI a favor there.

Telecast is a tough watch

Agree - guess it’s not just my connection 

Hansen has really found his game.  Offense flowing very well with him.

Also two nice assists from Bevins.

Great to see Castro with 9 points (4-4 and a FT). I feel like he’s been due a big game.