VCU Rams
Date: Wednesday February 12th, 2025
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Charles E. Smith Center (Washington, DC)
TV: Peacock (I think it's our first game on there?)
Ranks: 33rd (KenPom), 37th (Bart Torvik), 31st (Haslametrics), 28th (EvanMiya)
2023-24 Record: 24-14, 11-7 (T-4th In A10)
2024-25 Projected Record: 25-6, 15-3 (T-1st in A10)

Head-to-Head: 4-18. Last year's 84-82 at the Siegel Center snapped a six game losing streak in the series. GW has never won consecutive games since the teams first met (although there was just one matchup before 2010).

Last season's game started the way most games in the series have gone. The Rams jumper out to a 21-12 start and it felt like they were well on their way to extend their win streak to seven against the Revs. GW chipped away at the lead though, with a number of players making big plays. Zam made a 3, and Max scored seven consecutive points to help tie the game (JoeBam and him were trading buckets). Two consecutive steals put GW up by 4 but VCU closed the half strong to go up by 2. Neither team could get any stops in the second half, which definitely worked out for GW who could only win games by outscoring the competition. The Revs did not miss a field goal in the final eight minutes (9/9 on their attempts). They also missed just a single FT down the stretch. The Buff and Blue put up 51 points in the second half, which is a major success against VCU regardless of their coach. In many of the games in the past, they would go like 10 minutes without scoring after halftime. JB finished the game with 28 points (12/14 FTs), Max had 20 points/6 rebounds, and Garrett added 14 points. GW was able to overcome being outrebounded by 10 by shooting 55% from the field and 56% from deep.

In the last meeting at Smith (CC's first squad), GW stormed back in the second half but ultimately fell just short, 74-68 against the Rams. It was a lot like the SLU game from that season. With 7.5 minutes to go, VCU went up 17, but the Revs outscored the Rams 19-8 after that point. Unfortunately, they just ran out of time. GW had very balanced scoring in the game - BA, JB, and Hunter Dean all finished with 14 points, while Ricky had 12.




Offensive Efficiency: 65th (KenPom), 63rd (Bart Torvik), 62nd (Haslametrics), 54th (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 21st (KenPom), 30th (Bart Torvik), 18th (Haslametrics), 13th (EvanMiya)
Pace: 197th (KenPom), 193rd (Bart Torvik), 161st (Haslametrics), 170th (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 55th
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 64th
Rim & 3 Rate: 86% (102nd)

Strengths (2024-25 Season):
Scoring Margin: +15.5 PPG (9th)
Blocks Per Game: 5.4 BPG (11th)
Scoring Defense: 62.9 PPG (11th)
Field Goal Percentage Defense: 39.3% (14th)
Three Point Attempts Per Game: 28.9 3PA (18th)
Winning Percentage: 79.2% (19th)
Turnover Margin: +3.7 TO/G (22nd)
Offensive Rebounds Per Game: 13.5 ORPG (24th)
Turnovers Forced Per Game: 15.1 TO/G (27th)
Three Pointers Made Per Game: 9.5 3PM (39th)
Three Point Percentage Defense: 30.5% (41st)
Steals Per Game: 8.6 SPG (43rd)
Rebounds Per Game: 38.4 RPG (45th)
Rebound Margin: +4.9 RPG (49th)
Fastbreak Points: 12.9 PPG (57th)
Assists Per Game: 15.3 APG (77th)
Assist/Turnover Ratio: 1.34 AST/TO (81st)
Scoring Offense: 78.4 PPG (83rd)

Weaknesses (2024-25 Season):
VCU is not bottom 100 in any of the statistical categories.

Projected Starting Lineup:
#11 G Max Shulga (Senior; Kyiv, Ukraine) - 15.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 3.9 apg, 2 spg; 44% FG, 40% 3-PT, 75% FT per 32 mpg/24 GP
#1 G Phillip Russell (Graduate Student; St. Louis, MO) - 11.7 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 2.3 apg, 1.3 spg; 43% FG, 37% 3-PT, 81% FT per 23.6 mpg/24 GP
#22 G Joe Bamisile (Graduate Student; Chesterfield, VA) - 15.8 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.3 spg; 47% FG, 33% 3-PT, 66% FT per 26.6 mpg/24 GP
#4 F Jack Clark (Graduate Student; Cheltenham, PA) - 7.9 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 2 apg, 1 spg; 44% FG, 26% 3-PT, 74% FT per 26.9 mpg/24 GP
#9 F Luke Bamgboye (Freshman; London, United Kingdom) - 2.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2 bpg; 53% FG, 53% FT per 15.3 mpg/24 GP

Key Bench Players:
#2 G Zeb Jackson (Graduate Student; Toledo, OH) - 10.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.1 spg; 38% FG, 31% 3-PT, 88% FT per 21.3 mpg/19 GP
#21 F Christian Fermin (Junior; Tobyhanna, PA) - 4.9 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.5 bpg; 56% FG, 48% FT per 20.6 mpg/23 GP
#8 G/F Michael Belle (Sophomore; London, United Kingdom) - 3.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1 apg; 47% FG, 5% 3-PT, 40% FT per 14.4 mpg/24 GP
#0 G Brandon Jennings (Freshman; Richmond, VA) - 2.5 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1 apg; 37% FG, 32% 3-PT, 63% FT per 13.7 mpg/24 GP

Key Losses:
Sean Bairstow (Graduated; Brisbane, Australia) - 10 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 3.7 apg; 40% FG, 25% 3-PT, 81% FT per 32.9 mpg/25 GP
Tobi Lawal (Transferred to Virginia Tech; London, United Kingdom) - 7.7 ppg, 6 rpg; 67% FG, 43% 3-PT, 67% FT per 18.9 mpg/38 GP
Kuany Kuany (Graduated; Melbourne, Australia) - 5.7 ppg, 2.4 rpg; 45% FG, 38% 3-PT, 88% FT per 16.7 mpg/38 GP

Preview:
Last year was a "down season" by VCU standards in former UMBC/Utah State head coach Ryan Odom's inaugural year with the program. The Rams "only" won 24 games and "only" went 11-7 in the A10. In 12 runs through the league, VCU has finished under .500 just once and they have notched at least 10 wins in conference play in all but two campaigns. The last time they finished under .500 overall was back in the 1998-99 season. I could go on, but you get the point. They are kind of like Utah State of the east - it doesn't really matter who the coach is. Odom appears to be the favorite to take the UVA job but I have no doubt that the Rams will find a worthy successor in the offseason. The support will always be there, and the school has already announced that they will opt into the House Settlement Revenue Sharing. Any season that GW is able to defeat the Rams is a successful one. Despite the lack of success against them, I for whatever reason don't have the same hate for VCU fans that I do for Dayton's.

The 2023-24 season marked the end of the true "havoc" identity that the Rams have trotted out through the years going back to the Shaka Smart days. Despite a slightly larger emphasis on offense, VCU did not suddenly drop off on defense. They remained tough to score on from all spots on the floor - top 40 in both defensive two and three point percentage, and 28th in block percentage. Odom's first team may not have ranked as highly in turnover rate, but because they gambled less with the steals it enabled them to be positioned better to come down with a rebound when the other team missed a shot. On offense, the biggest pivot came in terms of shot selection, with the Rams ranking 35th in the nation in 3 point attempt percentage. Per KenPom, the lsat time they ranked top 100 in that category was back in Shaka Smart's final season (2014-15). VCU was also virtually automatic from the FT line (14th nationally).

The Rams went 8-5 OOC last season, dropping their opener to McNeese in Will Wade's return to Richmond. They did defeat another former coach in Rhoades and Penn State though and most of their other losses were understandable - Iowa State, Boise State, and Memphis. They were in all three games. The Norfolk State loss was head scratching but Rob Jones can really coach so it's not stunning. Despite starting 0-2 in conference play (losing to Bona and GW) they recovered well to win 11 of their next 13 contests. VCU would win three games in the conference tournament before falling to Duquesne in the final. They qualified for the NIT, defeating Villanova and South Florida before getting blown out against Utah in the quarterfinals.

This year's team has been better across the board compared to the last. They aren't coughing up the ball as much and are finishing inside a lot more consistently. Like many A10 teams, they are spotty from deep and haven't got to the line as frequently as they did last year but they've continued to pass the ball well and most notably generate a ton of second chance opportunities, ranking 25th nationally in offensive rebound percentage. That will be challenge #1 for GW tomorrow as the Revs have struggled to keep teams from getting multiple chances at a score at times this season. Defensively, Odom's bunch has returned to turning teams over after taking a year off. VCU is 18th nationally in defensive turnover percentage while remaining strong with regards to contesting shots. CJ in particular is going to have to keep the turnovers down tomorrow. On the flip side, the Rams can be prone to fouling which will provide GW ample FT opportunities.

VCU went 10-3 out of conference this year. Against Mountain West teams, they were just 1-2, and somehow let a poor Seton Hall squad defeat them. I'm a bit surprised they didn't play a tougher schedule given they had an at-large good roster but I think that really sums up just how tough it is to schedule at this level nowadays. The Rams have only dropped two games in the A10 - St. Bonaventure and Saint Louis, two teams GW has defeated. Both games were on the road which is maybe good news for the Revs? I'm not exactly getting my hopes up for this game though...

The Rams returned arguably the best backcourt in the league this season in Max Shulga, Zeb Jackson, and Joe Bamisile.

Shulga followed Odom from Logan, UT and was named to the A10 preseason first team in the offseason. He seems to be the odds on favorite to take home player of the year as of now. There's nothing overly flashy about his game, but he plays the right way. Shulga paces the team in both assists (3.9 apg - 82nd nationally in assist/turnover ratio) and steals (2 spg - 42nd nationally) while shooting a team best 40% from deep. He's also second in scoring and rebounding. If you close out on him hard, he will drive by you and is very good at drawing contact. He's taken 134 FTs on the year, which ranks 72nd among all CBB players. The senior has failed to score double figures in just two games all year (Merrimack and Loyola).

Jackson was honored with preseason second team honors in the league. He's a great defender, using his length to terrorize opposing ball handlers along the perimeter. Jackson is a great FT shooter at 88% (that ranks 39th best nationally, and he went 13/14 Friday against Dayton) but I think you can live with his three point attempts. The Ohio native is not afraid to let it fly (takes nearly 56% of his attempts from deep), but is generally a streaky shooter at best. In all three seasons in Richmond, the former Michigan transfer has shot under 40% from the field. He missed some time earlier in the season due to a left hand injury and started to come off the bench when he returned.

#RevengeWeek continues with JoeBam making his return to Foggy Bottom tomorrow. He joined Jackson on the preseason second team and currently leads the Rams in scoring at 15.8 ppg (97th in made field goals). Honestly, he's a bad matchup for GW in terms of his dynamic shot creation ability and I wouldn't be surprised if he follows Max and Noel with a strong performance. Something that he never gets a lot of credit for is his rebounding (currently third on team at 5.2 rpg). In last year's game, he came down with a number of huge offensive boards at critical times. On the flip side, we know that he's not always the most focused defensively but has the length to be disruptive (1.3 spg). Bam can also play with reckless abandon which explains his 2.6 turnovers per game. Anyways, it will be cool to see him back. I will never forget his windmill dunk/performance against Maryland a few years ago even though it resulted in a close loss.




As if the Rams needed any reinforcements in the backcourt, they also landed former SLU/SEMO/UT-Arlington transfer Phillip Russell and local 3-star freshman Brandon Jennings (no not that one).

Russell brings a similar edge in the way KD Johnson does for Mason. He's a good defender and can move the ball, but most importantly he can be a real spark plug for the Rams, whether that is pulling up from deep (37%) or knocking down a midrange shot. He may try to flop and/or get under the other team's skin so GW will need to pay attention to that. Apparently, his family was involved in an altercation when Russell made his return to SLU late last month. Jennings meanwhile has a very bright future. He is not much of a scorer this year (and has had freshman inefficiencies shooting the ball as many do), but that's partly because he's stuck behind the aforementioned quartet at guard. The Richmond native has good positional size and has rebounded at a good rate when he's played.

VCU is allowing teams to shoot just 44% from 2 point range, which ranks 10th nationally. The tandem of Luke Bamgboye and Christian Fermin are a big reason down low with their shot swatting ability. Bamgboye is the latest Brit to suit up for Odom, and the former top 150 prospect per 247Sports is super athletic with the ability to convert near the hoop (although his offensive game is still somewhat raw). He currently ranks 24th nationally in blocks per game, swatting over two shots into the stands per contest. Fermin has posted similar numbers coming off the bench. He crashes the glass hard offensively and ranks 89th nationally himself in blocks per game (1.5 bpg). Strangely, this pair has not got to the line too often, combining for a total of 46 FT attempts on the year (at a 50% clip).

That duo is still somewhat on the younger side, which is where Clemson (via NC State) transfer Jack Clark brings great value. Clark began his career at La Salle seemingly an eternity ago (he was originally recruited by John Giannini). He's a great shot creator for a guy of his size and leads the team in rebounding. Like Jackson, he probably settles for more threes than he probably should (just 26% on the season, so why is he taking 56% of his shots from there?).

Sophomore Michael Belle figures to see roughly 15 minutes or so from off the bench. He is a very smooth operator out on the court and assists in rebounding efforts. Belle has made just one three in 21 attempts but understands his limitations from there and doesn't take too many threes. His shooting limitations are evident as he's also just 40% from the line (although again, he hasn't attempted many this year).

Depending on game flow/foul situation, sophomore Alphonzo 'Fats' Billups III and freshman Terrence Hill Jr. may see spot minutes. It's crazy to me that Billups is not even in the rotation, because his talent was evident in last year's game. He caused disruption defensively with his long arms, and he had a nice touch on his jumper. At the same time, he also unintelligently taunted Max after making a shot in the second half of last year's game and T'd up for it so maybe there's other reasons. That effectively killed all of VCU's momentum the rest of the way. Hill, an Oregon native, seems to also be shooting the ball well in his first year on limited attempts (35% from 3, 13/13 from the line), but is still a work in progress overall.

It goes without saying, but this will be a very tough test for GW. VCU has experience up and down the lineup, something the Revs don't have. The Rams are #1 in offensive efficiency in A10 play and #2 in defensive efficiency. They are also the best in the league in offensive rebound percentage by 3% over the second best team in UMass who crushed GW there and handed the Revs their worst loss in conference play. Additionally, the Rams are back to turning teams over and GW has been way too loose with the ball lately. Oh, and they are #1 in block percentage. They'll have a field day swatting all of GW's weakly shot layups all game long. If the team can keep it within two possessions, that will be a success. If there was ever a time to have another strong shooting performance like the Dayton game, now would be the time to do it. Drumgoole had visited VCU before committing to GW last offseason. If JoeBam is going to go off on us, maybe Gerald can pay some of that back.

Projected Score: VCU 72, GW 65. 27% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik predicts a 31% GW victory. ESPN gives the Revs a 24.3% chance at a W.
 

To me, this is an inflection point game. Can the team show that it is making improvement and coming together at the right time?  Or does it regress into repeating bad habits that have cost games. Shot selection, ball movement and ball protection  on offense is critical. If Caputo allows the jacking of unwise and ill-timed 3’s without repercussion this game could get out of hand quickly. No way Drumgoole should be allowed to go 0-10 hoisting 3’s.

The way this season is going both for GW and across the A-10, I would hardly call this game an inflection point. Given our inconsistent shooting and guard play, I would expect more uneven results. We are roughly a .500 team in the A-10 plus or minus. By our 25th game of the season, we sort of are who we are. I expect more thrilling victories and more gut wrenching losses, don't ask me against which teams. I don't think any one game this year will define GW's season. Tonight, we could win by 20, win/lose a tight game or get blown out. It is what it is.

Gwmayhem wrote:

GWRising wrote:

The way this season is going both for GW and across the A-10, I would hardly call this game an inflection point. Given our inconsistent shooting and guard play, I would expect more uneven results. We are roughly a .500 team in the A-10 plus or minus. By our 25th game of the season, we sort of are who we are. I expect more thrilling victories and more gut wrenching losses, don't ask me against which teams. I don't think any one game this year will define GW's season. Tonight, we could win by 20, win/lose a tight game or get blown out. It is what it is.

While I'd love nothing more than to win by 20+ points tonight, this would be highly implausible.  VCU has 5 losses this season, all by single digits and three by three points or less.  We've seen that virtually anything is possible (thank you Dayton) but I don't think there's a chance that GW blows out VCU tonight.  Not with their scoring margin of +15.5 per game.

And while Tony Skinn is the clear favorite for A10 Coach of the Year right now, it's really incredible how Ryan Odom has stepped in after a line of Shaka assistants (Wade, Rhoades), removed the havoc concept (or at least dialed it down a bit) and yet still has maintained the program's elite status within the conference.   GW had interest in Odom but did not want to competitively pay him.  I still believe in CC's abilities to bring back GW to where we'd all realistically like to see, but Odom was truly the one who got away for no good reason.

 

 I am not betting on it either but in this somewhat crazy season it is also not implausible. Maybe this is the game when the three point shooting variation turns in our favor like Dayton. You just never know and moreso this season. 

Last edited by GWRising (2/12/2025 12:49 pm)

Alum1 wrote:

Gwmayhem wrote:

I guess this boils down to how we define inflection point game.  I am assuming this means that even if GW does not win, it can still be a positive experience if the team plays well or competitively.  If this means GW has to win tonight, then I'd disagree with the statement.

No, I am not defining it as a win. I would define it as seeing progression from both the coach and the players. Consistency and not falling back into old habits. A well played game that shows lessons are being learned.

If old habits are poor 3-point shooting and shooting FTs at a less than desirable clip, there are unlikely a lot of lessons to be learned by the 25th game. We are who we are. Can we overcome it from time-to-time as a variation? Yes. Can we overcome it consistently to the extent that it is a lesson to be learned? Most likely not. Our talent set is our talent set at this point. We can win games but we will have to do so in spite of our weaknesses which is hard to do regularly because there isn't much margin for error. 

Long Suffering Fan wrote:

GW getting 8.5.  I saw a couple of betting sites that listed VCU as a best bet.

I’ll take the Colonials +8.5 tonight. We’re a tough putt at home.

Alum1 wrote:

Long Suffering Fan wrote:

GW getting 8.5. I saw a couple of betting sites that listed VCU as a best bet.

I’ll take the Colonials +8.5 tonight. We’re a tough putt at home.

I'm tempted.  Then, I see that average margin of victory at 15.5 and the fact that they lost to us at home last year and I talk myself out of it....pretty easily.  That said, they are 4-3 in true road games this year, so there is that.

At some point, we in general and Drumgoole in particular, are going to hit our often inopportune
3 point shots a la Dayton. When that happens, have no idea. But we are at home tonight.
And sometimes we can surprise VCU, which doesn't necessarily mean we win, depending on your definition of a foul
on an inbounds play.
   On the returning opposition player, this post really describes the situation. We actually kickstarted his career.
   DC Native: "I don’t like the term “revenge week,” especially for Bamisile. I guess it made sense for Noel, who didn’t get a lot of playing time at GW. It made less but some sense for Max, who started his freshman year and was freshman of the year, but lost his starting spot (but still played a lot of minutes) last year. But it makes no sense to me for Bamisile, who started and was a star player for us alongside JB. If he had stayed, he would still be starting. So what does he have to get revenge for?"


 

https://gwradio.com/foggy-bottom-notebook-george-washington-faces-vcu-after-road-win-against-st-bonaventure/
 

Very real. We are going to see an unprecedented amount of Georges being Dribbled. Hopefully, we can get a good crowd, think some of the VCU fans will be staying home because of the storm so we might et a good home court advantage going https://x.com/GW_MBB/status/1889787802654482571